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Energy Management: 2014/2015
Primary, Final & Useful EnergiesSankey Diagrams
1st and 2nd law efficienciesHistorical Energy Use
Class # 3
Prof. Tânia [email protected]
Energy Units and Scales
• How much energy should we ingest daily?• How much energy do you spend per hour
using an electric heater?
Energy Units and Scales
Activities (GJ-TJ or toe=41.87GJ)•In early agricultural societies
– 10-20 GJ/capita/year
– 2/3 for food and feed
– 1/3 for cooking, heating and early industrial activities
•In UK in the mid-19th century– 100 GJ/capita/year
•In Portugal in 2010– 108 GJ/capita/year
Forms of Energy
• Primary energy – embodied in resources as it is found in nature (coal, oil, natural gas in the ground)
• Final energy – sold to final consumers such as households or firms (electricity, diesel, processed natural gas)
• Useful energy – in the form that isused: light, heat, cooling and mechanical power (stationary or transport)
• Productive energy – the fraction of useful energy that we actually use
From Primary Energy to Energy Services
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
Energy Supplyenergy flows driven by resource availability and conversion technologies
From Primary Energy to Energy Services
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
The energy supply sector dealing with primary energy is referred as “upstream” activities
From Primary Energy to Energy Services
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
The energy supply sector dealing with secondary energy is referred as “downstream” activities
From Primary Energy to Energy Services
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
Energy DemandEnergy system is service driven
From Primary Energy to Energy Services
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
Quality and cost of energy services
Energetic Balance
• Where are the primary and final energies in the energetic balance?
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICOtep Total de Carvão Total de Petróleo
Gás Natural(*)
Gases o Outros
Derivados
Total de Eectricidade
CalorResíduos
IndustriaisRenováveisSem Hídrica
TOTAL GERAL
2008 4 = 1 a 3 22= 15 + 21 23 30 = 24 a 29 36 = 31 a 35 37 38 46 = 39 a 4547=4+22+23+30+36+37+
38+46
IMPORTAÇÕES 1. 2 327 219 16 608 384 4 163 167 923 984 24 022 754
PRODUÇÃO DOMÉSTICA 2. 1 142 338 39 800 3 190 679 4 372 817
VARIAÇÃO DE "STOCKS" 3. - 223 603 315 673 5 960 - 837 97 193
SAÍDAS 4. 24 949 3 680 661 112 918 17 634 3 836 162
CONSUMO DE ENERGIA PRIMÁRIA 5. 2 525 873 12 612 050 4 157 207 1 953 404 39 800 3 173 882 24 462 216
PARA NOVAS FORMAS DE ENERGIA 6. 2 444 703 1 079 137 2 597 143 -2 810 996 -1 472 450 1 120 1 367 391 3 206 048
CONSUMO DO SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
7. 475 376 56 103 605 301 270 736 3 1 407 519
CONSUMO COMO MATÉRIA PRIMA 1 275 842 1 275 842
DISPONÍVEL PARA CONSUMO FINAL
8. 81 170 9 781 695 1 503 961 4 159 099 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 488 18 572 807
ACERTOS 9. 9 851 - 47 340 - 1 382 12 279 - 38 580
CONSUMO FINAL 10. 71 319 9 829 035 1 505 343 4 159 087 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 209 18 611 387
AGRICULTURA E PESCAS 10.1 358 801 3 359 87 218 2 366 21 451 765
INDÚSTRIAS EXTRACTIVAS 10.2 66 103 8 444 49 882 30 844 4 155 277
INDÚSTRIAS TRANSFORMADORAS 10.3 71 319 1 085 788 1 027 157 1 340 009 1 154 293 38 680 615 382 5 332 628
CONSTRUÇÃO E OBRAS PÚBLICAS 10.4 576 210 5 063 50 490 21 631 784
TRANSPORTES 10.5 6 680 176 6 659 46 677 3 452 6 736 964
SECTOR DOMÉSTICO 10.6 552 680 300 190 1 157 672 1 180 750 3 191 292
SERVIÇOS 10.7 509 277 154 471 1 427 139 14 211 6 579 2 111 677
Energetic Balance
• Where are the primary and final energies in the energetic balance?
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICOtep Total de Carvão Total de Petróleo
Gás Natural(*)
Gases o Outros
Derivados
Total de Eectricidade
CalorResíduos
IndustriaisRenováveisSem Hídrica
TOTAL GERAL
2008 4 = 1 a 3 22= 15 + 21 23 30 = 24 a 29 36 = 31 a 35 37 38 46 = 39 a 4547=4+22+23+30+36+37
+38+46
IMPORTAÇÕES 1. 2 327 219 16 608 384 4 163 167 923 984 24 022 754
PRODUÇÃO DOMÉSTICA 2. 1 142 338 39 800 3 190 679 4 372 817
VARIAÇÃO DE "STOCKS" 3. - 223 603 315 673 5 960 - 837 97 193
SAÍDAS 4. 24 949 3 680 661 112 918 17 634 3 836 162 CONSUMO DE ENERGIA PRIMÁRIA
5. 2 525 873 12 612 050 4 157 207 1 953 404 39 800 3 173 882 24 462 216
PARA NOVAS FORMAS DE ENERGIA
6. 2 444 703 1 079 137 2 597 143 -2 810 996 -1 472 450 1 120 1 367 391 3 206 048
CONSUMO DO SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
7. 475 376 56 103 605 301 270 736 3 1 407 519
CONSUMO COMO MATÉRIA PRIMA 1 275 842 1 275 842
DISPONÍVEL PARA CONSUMO FINAL
8. 81 170 9 781 695 1 503 961 4 159 099 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 488 18 572 807
ACERTOS 9. 9 851 - 47 340 - 1 382 12 279 - 38 580
CONSUMO FINAL 10. 71 319 9 829 035 1 505 343 4 159 087 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 209 18 611 387
AGRICULTURA E PESCAS 10.1 358 801 3 359 87 218 2 366 21 451 765
INDÚSTRIAS EXTRACTIVAS 10.2 66 103 8 444 49 882 30 844 4 155 277 INDÚSTRIAS TRANSFORMADORAS
10.3 71 319 1 085 788 1 027 157 1 340 009 1 154 293 38 680 615 382 5 332 628
CONSTRUÇÃO E OBRAS PÚBLICAS
10.4 576 210 5 063 50 490 21 631 784
TRANSPORTES 10.5 6 680 176 6 659 46 677 3 452 6 736 964
SECTOR DOMÉSTICO 10.6 552 680 300 190 1 157 672 1 180 750 3 191 292
SERVIÇOS 10.7 509 277 154 471 1 427 139 14 211 6 579 2 111 677
Energetic Balance
• Where is the useful energy in the energetic balance?
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICOtep Total de Carvão Total de Petróleo
Gás Natural(*)
Gases o Outros
Derivados
Total de Eectricidade
CalorResíduos
IndustriaisRenováveisSem Hídrica
TOTAL GERAL
2008 4 = 1 a 3 22= 15 + 21 23 30 = 24 a 29 36 = 31 a 35 37 38 46 = 39 a 4547=4+22+23+30+36+37
+38+46
IMPORTAÇÕES 1. 2 327 219 16 608 384 4 163 167 923 984 24 022 754
PRODUÇÃO DOMÉSTICA 2. 1 142 338 39 800 3 190 679 4 372 817
VARIAÇÃO DE "STOCKS" 3. - 223 603 315 673 5 960 - 837 97 193
SAÍDAS 4. 24 949 3 680 661 112 918 17 634 3 836 162 CONSUMO DE ENERGIA PRIMÁRIA
5. 2 525 873 12 612 050 4 157 207 1 953 404 39 800 3 173 882 24 462 216
PARA NOVAS FORMAS DE ENERGIA
6. 2 444 703 1 079 137 2 597 143 -2 810 996 -1 472 450 1 120 1 367 391 3 206 048
CONSUMO DO SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
7. 475 376 56 103 605 301 270 736 3 1 407 519
CONSUMO COMO MATÉRIA PRIMA 1 275 842 1 275 842
DISPONÍVEL PARA CONSUMO FINAL
8. 81 170 9 781 695 1 503 961 4 159 099 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 488 18 572 807
ACERTOS 9. 9 851 - 47 340 - 1 382 12 279 - 38 580
CONSUMO FINAL 10. 71 319 9 829 035 1 505 343 4 159 087 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 209 18 611 387
AGRICULTURA E PESCAS 10.1 358 801 3 359 87 218 2 366 21 451 765
INDÚSTRIAS EXTRACTIVAS 10.2 66 103 8 444 49 882 30 844 4 155 277 INDÚSTRIAS TRANSFORMADORAS
10.3 71 319 1 085 788 1 027 157 1 340 009 1 154 293 38 680 615 382 5 332 628
CONSTRUÇÃO E OBRAS PÚBLICAS
10.4 576 210 5 063 50 490 21 631 784
TRANSPORTES 10.5 6 680 176 6 659 46 677 3 452 6 736 964
SECTOR DOMÉSTICO 10.6 552 680 300 190 1 157 672 1 180 750 3 191 292
SERVIÇOS 10.7 509 277 154 471 1 427 139 14 211 6 579 2 111 677
Energetic Balance
• How do you go from final to useful energy for household electricity consumption?
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICOtep Total de Carvão Total de Petróleo
Gás Natural(*)
Gases o Outros
Derivados
Total de Eectricidade
CalorResíduos
IndustriaisRenováveisSem Hídrica
TOTAL GERAL
2008 4 = 1 a 3 22= 15 + 21 23 30 = 24 a 29 36 = 31 a 35 37 38 46 = 39 a 4547=4+22+23+30+36+37
+38+46
IMPORTAÇÕES 1. 2 327 219 16 608 384 4 163 167 923 984 24 022 754
PRODUÇÃO DOMÉSTICA 2. 1 142 338 39 800 3 190 679 4 372 817
VARIAÇÃO DE "STOCKS" 3. - 223 603 315 673 5 960 - 837 97 193
SAÍDAS 4. 24 949 3 680 661 112 918 17 634 3 836 162 CONSUMO DE ENERGIA PRIMÁRIA
5. 2 525 873 12 612 050 4 157 207 1 953 404 39 800 3 173 882 24 462 216
PARA NOVAS FORMAS DE ENERGIA
6. 2 444 703 1 079 137 2 597 143 -2 810 996 -1 472 450 1 120 1 367 391 3 206 048
CONSUMO DO SECTOR ENERGÉTICO
7. 475 376 56 103 605 301 270 736 3 1 407 519
CONSUMO COMO MATÉRIA PRIMA 1 275 842 1 275 842
DISPONÍVEL PARA CONSUMO FINAL
8. 81 170 9 781 695 1 503 961 4 159 099 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 488 18 572 807
ACERTOS 9. 9 851 - 47 340 - 1 382 12 279 - 38 580
CONSUMO FINAL 10. 71 319 9 829 035 1 505 343 4 159 087 1 201 714 38 680 1 806 209 18 611 387
AGRICULTURA E PESCAS 10.1 358 801 3 359 87 218 2 366 21 451 765
INDÚSTRIAS EXTRACTIVAS 10.2 66 103 8 444 49 882 30 844 4 155 277 INDÚSTRIAS TRANSFORMADORAS
10.3 71 319 1 085 788 1 027 157 1 340 009 1 154 293 38 680 615 382 5 332 628
CONSTRUÇÃO E OBRAS PÚBLICAS
10.4 576 210 5 063 50 490 21 631 784
TRANSPORTES 10.5 6 680 176 6 659 46 677 3 452 6 736 964
SECTOR DOMÉSTICO 10.6 552 680 300 190 1 157 672 1 180 750 3 191 292
SERVIÇOS 10.7 509 277 154 471 1 427 139 14 211 6 579 2 111 677
Useful Energy
• How do you go from final to useful energy for household electricity consumption?
• Electrical resistance 100%• Electrical motor
90%• Fluorescent lamp
50%• Refrigerator
200%• Heat pump 250%
,useful final i ii
E E
Sankey diagrams
• Schematic representation of the energy flow
final
primary
E
E
useful
final
E
E
productive
useful
E
E
Miguel Águas (2009)
Sankey Diagram for Portugal for 2010
BALANÇO ENERGÉTICOtep
Total de Carvão
Total de Petróleo
Gás NaturalTotal de
Eletricidade
RenováveisSem
EletricidadeTOTAL GERAL
2010 4 = 1 a 3 22= 15 + 21 23 36 = 31 a 35 46 = 39 a 4547=4+22+23+30+36+
37+38+46
CONSUMO DE ENERGIA PRIMÁRIA 5. 1 656 757 11 241 129 4 506 817 2 474 507 3 168 351 23 101 751
PARA NOVAS FORMAS DE ENERGIA 6. 1 597 427 563 778 2 857 644 -2 403 968 1 819 195 2 846 994
Produtos de Petróleo 6.3 - 321 179 321 473 - 8 290
Eletricidade 6.6 1 597 427 285 397 1 740 776 -1 787 691 456 792 2 299 882
Cogeração 6.7 562 580 1 116 868 - 616 277 1 040 930 555 402
CONSUMO DO SECTOR ENERGÉTICO 7. 277 453 134 954 589 099 10 1 252 656
Consumo Próprio da Refinação 7.1 215 503 121 238 45 829 633 710
Perdas da Refinação 7.2 58 915 10 58 925
Centrais Eléctricas 7.4 3 035 128 271 131 306
Bombagem Hidroeléctrica 7.5 44 032 44 032
Perdas de Transporte e Distribuição 7.8 13 716 370 355 384 071
DISPONÍVEL PARA CONSUMO FINAL 8. 59 330 9 111 257 1 514 219 4 289 376 1 349 146 17 713 460
ACERTOS 9. 9 130 4 999 4 761 - 132 14 762
CONSUMO FINAL 10. 50 200 9 106 258 1 514 215 4 288 615 1 349 278 17 698 698
AGRICULTURA E PESCAS 10.1 360 870 3 511 88 164 65 455 009
INDÚSTRIAS EXTRATIVAS 10.2 62 582 7 951 47 271 91 151 412
INDÚSTRIAS TRANSFORMADORAS 10.3 50 200 825 308 971 726 1 331 090 590 133 5 101 671
CONSTRUÇÃO E OBRAS PÚBLICAS 10.4 493 136 9 218 52 436 554 790
TRANSPORTES 10.5 6 430 400 12 581 40 857 4 233 6 488 071
SECTOR DOMÉSTICO 10.6 679 765 300 266 1 248 873 724 980 2 953 884
SERVIÇOS 10.7 254 197 208 962 1 479 924 29 776 1 993 861
World Sankey Diagram in 2005
• Overall 1st law efficiency in converting primary to final energy?
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
US – 94 EJ Portugal – 1.1 EJ
final
primary
E
E ?
?useful
final
E
E
World Sankey Diagram in 2005
• Overall 1st law efficiency in converting primary to final energy? 66%
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
US – 94 EJ Portugal – 1.1 EJ
final
primary
E
E ?
?useful
final
E
E
World Sankey Diagram in 2005
• Overall 1st law efficiency in converting primary to useful energy?
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
US – 94 EJ Portugal – 1.1 EJ
final
primary
E
E ?
?useful
final
E
E
World Sankey Diagram in 2005
• Overall 1st law efficiency in converting primary to useful energy? 34%
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
US – 94 EJ Portugal – 1.1 EJ
final
primary
E
E ?
?useful
final
E
E
Typical values of 1st law efficiencies
• 1st Law efficiencies from primary to final energy
• 1st Law efficiencies from final to useful energy
Sankey Diagram for an Energy Service
• Schematic representation of the energy flow (natural gas electricity light reading)
• What is the aggregate efficiency?
productive
useful
E
E
20%
50%
50%
final out
primary in
E W
E Q
useful
final
E
E
Sankey Diagram for an Energy Service
• Schematic representation of the energy flow (natural gas electricity light reading)
• What is the aggregate efficiency?
productive
useful
E
E
20%
50%
50%
final out
primary in
E W
E Q
useful
final
E
E
• What is the 1st Law efficiency in a heat pump?
Typical values of between 3 – 5
• What is the Sankey diagram like?
Are there 1st law efficiencies > 1?
11
1
out out
inout in
out
Q QQW Q QQ
• What is the 1st Law efficiency in a heat pump?
Typical values of between 3 – 5
• What is the Sankey diagram like?
Are there 1st law efficiencies > 1?
11
1
out out
inout in
out
Q QQW Q QQ
Sankey DiagramA coal thermal power plant has an efficiency of 40%. The combustion of coal releases 7000kcal/kg. The energy consumption associated with extraction, transport and grinding represent 500 kcal/kg. 1.Draw the Sankey Diagram
A coal thermal power plant has an efficiency of 40%. The combustion of coal releases 7000kcal/kg. The energy consumption associated with extraction, transport and grinding represent 500 kcal/kg. 1.Draw the Sankey Diagram2.What is the overall efficiency?
Sankey Diagram
Coal Mine Coal at the Power Plant Electricity
40%93%
Coal at the coal mine
Coal at the Power Plant
Electricity at the Power Plant
7%
60%
1 Mcal = 4.187 MJ1 toe = 41868 MJ1 MWh = 3600 MJ
A coal thermal power plant has an efficiency of 40%. The combustion of coal releases 7000kcal/kg. The energy consumption associated with extraction, transport and grinding represent 500 kcal/kg. 1.Draw the Sankey Diagram2.What is the overall efficiency?3.What is the coefficient of conversion between final and primary energy in MWhe/TOE?
Sankey Diagram
Coal Mine Coal at the Power Plant Electricity
40%93%
Coal at the coal mine
Coal at the Power Plant
Electricity at the Power Plant
7%
60%
Eficiency = 2600/7000 = 37%
1 Mcal = 4.187 MJ1 toe = 41868 MJ1 MWh = 3600 MJ
A coal thermal power plant has an efficiency of 40%. The combustion of coal releases 7000kcal/kg. The energy consumption associated with extraction, transport and grinding represent 500 kcal/kg. 1.Draw the Sankey Diagram2.What is the overall efficiency?3.What is the coefficient of conversion between final and primary energy in MWhe/TOE?
Sankey Diagram
Coal Mine Coal at the Power Plant Electricity
40%93%
37 41868 3600MWhFinal Energy 37toe MWh4.3
Primary Energy 100 toe 100 toe toe
1 Mcal = 4.187 MJ1 toe = 41868 MJ1 MWh = 3600 MJ
Conversion between F.E and P.E
• Conversion coefficients are efficiencies and not direct conversions– From coal (P.E) to electricity (F.E)
– Direct conversion ??????????
Conversion between F.E and P.E
• Conversion coefficients are efficiencies and not direct conversions– From coal (P.E) to electricity (F.E)
– Direct conversion1toe 41.87GJ 41.87 / 3.6MWh 11.63MWh
Conversion between F.E and P.E
• Conversion coefficients are efficiencies and not direct conversions– From coal (P.E) to electricity (F.E)
– Direct conversion
• What about the conversion coefficient from natural gas to electricity?
Are first law efficiencies enough?
Heating of a house can be done by one of the following methods:1.Electrical heating using the Joule effect2.Central heating 3.Heating using a heat pump
Are first law efficiencies enough?
Heating of a house can be done by one of the following methods:1.Electrical heating using the Joule effect2.Central heating (burning natural gas in a furnace with a 90% efficiency)3.Heating using a heat pump (COP=3).Suppose that electricity has a production efficiency of 45% and costs 0.12 euros per kWh, natural gas is transported with a 99% efficiency, and costs 0.0708 euros per kWh.a)Compare the alternatives in terms of primary energy, final energy and cost for 1 kWh of thermal energy. Draw the Sankey Diagrams
Are first law efficiencies enough?
Heating of a house can be done by one of the following methods:1.Electrical heating using the Joule effect2.Central heating (burning natural gas in a furnace with a 90% efficiency)3.Heating using a heat pump (COP=3).Suppose that electricity has a production efficiency of 45% and costs 0.12 euros per kWh, natural gas is transported with a 99% efficiency, and costs 0.0708 euros per kWh.a)Compare the alternatives in terms of primary energy, final energy and cost for 1 kWh of thermal energy. Draw the Sankey Diagrams
Electrical Resistance
Central Heating Heat Pump
Primary (kWh) 1/0.45=2.22 (1/0.90)/0.99=1.12 (1/3)/0.45=0.74
Final (kWh) 1 1/0.90=1.11 1/3=0.33
Useful (kWh) 1 1 1
Cost (euros) 1*0.12 ((1/0.9))*0.0708 1/3*0.12
Are first law efficiencies enough?
• Providing 1 kWh of heat at 30ºC to a building with an outside temperature of 4ºC
• First law efficiencies do not provide information on how much you can improve your efficiency
Electrical Resistance
Central Heating
Heat Pump
Ideal Heat Pump
Final (kWh)
1 1/0.90 1/3 1/12
Useful (kWh)
1 1 1 1
First Law 100% 90% 300% 1200%
Second law efficiencies
• Ratio between 1st law real and best efficiencies • Providing 1 kWh of heat at 30ºC to a building
with an outside temperature of 4ºC
• Second law efficiencies provide information on how much you can improve your efficiency
Electrical Resistance
Central Heating
Heat Pump
Ideal Heat Pump
Final (kWh) 1 1/0.90 1/3 1/12
Useful (kWh) 1 1 1 1
First Law 100% 90% 300% 1200%
Second Law 8.3% 7.5% 25% 100%
Typical values of 2nd law efficiencies
• Overall 2nd law efficiency in converting primary to final is 76% and primary to useful energy is 10%
IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012
Second law efficiencies
• Second law efficiencies by providing information on how much you can improve your efficiency show where efforts should be made
Rosen and Dincer, 1997
Population (lines) Primary energy use (bars)
industrialized countries
(white squares and bars)
developing countries
(gray triangles and bars)
Energy use data includes estimates of noncommercial energy use
Primary Energy Use 1800-2000
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Population (lines) Primary energy use (bars)
industrialized countries
(white squares and bars)
developing countries
(gray triangles and bars)
Energy use data includes estimates of noncommercial energy use
•Primary energy use increased more than 20-fold in 200 years
•Heterogeneity in per capita primary energy use:• In industrialized countries population increased linearly while primary
energy use increased exponentially until recently
• In developing countries energy use increased proportionally to population until recently
•Primary Energy Mix ?
Primary Energy Use 1800-2000
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Primary Energy Mix 1850-2010
• Mostly biomass in 1850• Increasing diversification of energy vectors
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
Primary Energy Mix 1800-2040
• Energy Transition: The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
Primary Energy Mix 1800-2040
• Energy Transition: The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
Energy Transition biomass to coal
Primary Energy Mix 1800-2040
• Energy Transition: The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
Energy Transition biomass to coal Energy Transition coal to oil
Primary Energy Mix 1800-2040
• Energy Transition: The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
Energy Transition biomass to coal Energy Transition coal to oil
Stabilization
Energy Eras and Transitions
• Energy Transformations before industrial civilization: – Solar radiation – food & feed, light and heat
– Animate labor from humans and work animals (levers, inclined planes, pulleys) – mechanical work & transport
– Kinetic energies of water & wind – mechanical work & transport
– Biomass fuels (wood, charcoal, crop residues, dung) –residential & industrial heat and light
Energy Eras and Transitions
• Energy Transformations before industrial civilization: – Dominant in the western world until the 2nd half of the 19th century
– Dominant for most of humankind until middlle of the 20th century
– Annual per capita primary energy consumption 20 GJ
Energy Eras and Transitions
• Energy Transformations that came with industrial civilization: – Fossil fuels – heat & mechanical work & transport (steam
engines, internal combustion engines and steam turbines)
Energy Transitions
• An aggregated transition to other energy source(s) includes numerous services and sectors
Energy Transitions
• The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
16th century (tall narrow chimneys and suitable grates )17th century (coal gets even cheaper)
Energy Transitions
• The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
1709 (coke)18th century (efficiency improvments)
Energy Transitions
• The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)
1804 (1st steam locomotive)
Why do energy transitions occur?
• Main Drivers/Catalyst for adoption of a new energy carrier:– Price of energy
– Better/Different Service
– Technological change and innovation
– Efficiency improvments
Why do energy transitions occur?
• Main Drivers/Catalyst for adoption of a new energy carrier:– Price of energy
– Better/Different Service
– Technological change and innovation
– Efficiency improvments
– Environmental Impacts?
Decarbonization of Energy Systems
Decreasing trend in CO2 emitted per GJ from 1850 to 2000
2010: 108 GJ/capita/year
7600 kg CO2/capita/year
Decarbonization of Energy Systems
Historically energy related biomass burning has not been carbon-neutral (maximum estimated value of 38%)
Power generation 1990-2010
• Despite an increasing contribution across two decades, the share of non-fossil generation has failed to keep pace with the growth in generation from fossil fuels.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Ele
ctric
ity g
ener
atio
n (
TW
h)
Sha
re o
f el
ectr
icity
(%
)
Share of coal-based electricity
Share of non-fossil electricity
Nuclear
HydroNon-hydro renewables
IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
Final Energy from 1900-2000World final energy use by consumers.Solids (such as coal and biomass,brown), Liquids (such as oil, red) and fuels delivered via dedicated Grids (such as natural gas and electricity, green).
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Final Energy from 1900-2000World final energy use by consumers.Solids (such as coal and biomass,brown), Liquids (such as oil, red) and fuels delivered via dedicated Grids (such as natural gas and electricity, green).
“With rising incomes, consumers pay increasing attention to convenience and cleanliness, favoring liquids and grid-delivered energy forms”
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Final Energy from 1900-2000World final energy use by consumers.Solids (such as coal and biomass,brown), Liquids (such as oil, red) and fuels delivered via dedicated Grids (such as natural gas and electricity, green).
Developing countries
OECD (squares)
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Final Energy from 1900-2000World final energy use by consumers.Solids (such as coal and biomass,brown), Liquids (such as oil, red) and fuels delivered via dedicated Grids (such as natural gas and electricity, green).
Heterogeneity in final energy quality
Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”
Final Energy per capita in 2010
• Heterogeneity in Final Energy Use per capita:
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
What is Final Energy used for?
• Regular expansion ofenergy services in 19th
– dominated by heat and transport
• High volatility due topolitical and economic events
• Moderated growth after 1950– Decline in industrial energy services compensated by strong
growth in transport
• Saturated at a level of 6 EJ or 100 GJ/capita• What about energy services?
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
• UK 1800-2000
• Increasing efficiencies in converting final energy to energy services– Ranges between a factor
of 5 for transportation and 600 for lighting
From Final Energy to Energy Services
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
• UK 1800-2000
• Lower prices of energyservices– Ranges between a factor
of 10 for heating and 70 for lighting
From Final Energy to Energy Services
IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012
Energy Services 2005
• Energy services cannot be expressed in common units
• Transport– 13 km/day/per capita
– 1 ton 20 km/day/per capita
• Industry– 9 ton/year/per capita (steel +
fertilizers + constructionmaterials + plastics …
• Buldings– Heating/cooling to 20m2/per capita
• Useful energy – minimizes distortions among
different energy service categories, as it most closely measures the actual energy service provided.
• Second law efficiencies provide information on the destruction of exergy
• What is exergy?
Power = 0 W Power = 150 kW
Δz = 0m Δz = 120m
Second law efficiencies