Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change

Tejal KanitkarCentre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies

TISS, Mumbai

with modifications/additions by

D.RaghunandanDelhi Science Forum/

All India Peoples Science Network

Paper presented at and incorporating recommendations of

AIPSN Workshop on “Energy Mix for India 2035”

Dec 2012

Work done in collaboration with Prabir Purkayastha (DSF) & T.Jayaraman (TISS)

Outline

• Rights based approach to development• Defining the right to energy• The energy-emissions linkage• Carbon budgets – entitlements and actual

realizable carbon space • Energy within constraints of costs,

emissions, and resources – Energy Model

Right to Energy If energy is a pre-requisite for human development

– not just economic development – while planning future development, one should also plan for some minimum energy per capita commensurate with human well-being

This per capita energy can of course be aggregated for each country

How to meet this minimum energy requirement subject to emission constraints is the key question for future energy and emissions trajectory

Development Indicators – Context for India

Countries (2007)

Per Capita GNI at PPP

($)

Per Capita Energy

Consumption (kgoe)

Per Capita Electricity

Consumption (kWhr)

Per Capita Installed Capacity

(kW/person)

Per Capita

Emissions (tCO2)

HDI (2010)

India 2,870 529 452 0.13 1.4 0.52

China 5,640 1,484 2,332 0.48 5 0.66

South Africa

9,660 2,784 4,944 0.85 9 0.59

UK 36,270 3,465 6,123 1.31 8.8 0.85

US 46,740 7,759 13,638 3.24 19 0.90

World 10,203 1,821 2,875 0.61 (2006) 4.6 -

India has a large development deficit that it needs to address

India: aggregate energy trends

1985 2010

Population (million) 765.1 1150

Energy use (EJ) 10.8 28

Electricity use (Billion units) 157 811

Share of energy imports 8% ~30%

% of hh un-electrified Not known 46

Renewable power installed capacity (excl large hydro)

0 17,297 MW

Development vs. Constraints

Value added as %

of GDP

Employment (% of total)

Agri. 16% 56%Ind. 27% 19%

Services 57% 25%

• Employment in agri. disproportionate to contribution to GDP

• need planned growth in industry; growth of rural enterprises

• significant infrastructure growth planned in next two decades

• Concerns: environment, climate change constraint on emissions constraint on fossil fuels

• Also Constraints on: • availability and use of land and water• availability of mineral resources domestically • renewable energy potential• availability of finance

Understanding energy-economy-environment linkages crucial!

Energy as part of right to development

• development measured not just in GDP growth• necessary to consider other parameters to

capture development e.g. life expectancy, infant mortality, etc.

• Unfortunately, Energy Access not one of the 8 MDGs --- insufficient effort invested by civil society in this, now even Rio+20 come and gone!

HDI vs. Energy Consumption

Life Expectancy vs. Energy Consumption

Infant Mortality vs. Energy Consumption

Targets for Energy Use 2035 – (1)• India should target levels of human development

comparable to mid-level developed countries• Portugal, the best amongst these – 4860 kWh/person• Informally also Govt projections• given current levels of technology, in BAU mode, this

is perhaps reasonable – may change in the future• Effect of late development

• High carbon energy – low cost• Low carbon energy – high cost

• Need carbon space to achieve energy equity

Global Emissions

To limit temp. rise to 2 deg. C with 50% probability 658 GtC from 1850 to 2050 of which 332 GtC already emitted (50%)

What is left? 326 GtC

For 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C 207 GtC is left

Climate Change Mitigation and the Global Carbon Budget

• The world has only 326 GtC more

• Ambitious climate change deal a necessity

• Equity should be at the focal point of any new deal that involves all countries

• No acceptable schema yet

• Distribution of remaining carbon budget (cumulative emissions) increasing or cutting according to ”fair shares” of per capita entitlements (TISS-DSF is one such Schema

Global Carbon Budget Schema

• modeling shows 2 deg C achievable

• A1 sharp cuts (no negative emissions, and allowing for 1970 cut-off year for historical emissions: huge concession)

• interestingly single framework so dear to US, but still incorporating equity and CBDR&RC

• large DCs (China, India, Brazil, SA etc 20 nations) must peak and then reduce on differential time-table

• India peaks around 2035-40; 70-80 GtC budget

Entitlements for A1 and non-A1 countries

 

Entitle-ments –

1850-2050 (GtC)

Contribution to stock – 1850-2009

(GtC)

Future entitlements – 2010-2050

(GtC)Annex-I 133 245 -112

Non-Annex-I 525 86 438Total 658 331 326

based on 2000 population

• These are entitlements not actual space• Negative emissions not possible• Even if Annex-I emit zero between 2010-2050, Non-Annex-I are left with 326 GtC (112 GtC less than what they are owed)

Dividing the actual carbon space

1850 Basis, Non-

LUCF

Future entitlements

– 2010-2050 (GtC)

Potential actual share- 2010-2050 (TISS-DSF model)

Potential actual share- 2010-2050

(Dividing future total budget

based on 2000 population)

Annex-I -112 50 65Non-

Annex-I 438 271 261

Total 326 321 326

Actual Space for India & Other Countries

1850 basis, non-LUCF

Future entitlements – 2010-2050 (GtC)

Potential actual share (2010-2050) [GtC] – TISS-DSF

model

Potential actual share 2010-2050 (based on 2000

population)USA -65 18 16EU -35 14 26RussianFed. -11 6 7Japan 0 4 7Australia -2 2 0Canada -4 2 3OtherAnnexI 4 3 7China 103 87 65India 103 68 55Brazil 16 7 10SouthAfrica 1 2 3Indonesia 20 10 10Mexico 7 2 7SouthKorea 2 2 3OtherEE 23 18 20RotW 163 75 88Total 326 321 326

Electricity Use

Needed to achieve Human Development

Electricity Supply

CoalGas

DieselNuclearHydro

BiomassWind

Solar PVSolar Thermal

Resource Constraints

Cost Constraints

Emissions Constraints

Fuel Mix, Cost Implications, Various Scenarios can be studied

Example: Power Sector• Current (2008) per capita electricity use in India

is ~490 kWh/person/year• Low levels of access, low reliability of supply• Target: Portugal - 4,860 kWh/year; 4500

kWh/year used in model

Power Sector Baseline Snapshot - 2008

Projections for the Future

 

Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh/person)

2008 490Energy vs. GDP per Capita regression @ 8%

GDP Growth 1684

IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 2598

IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth 3219

MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 3210

MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth 4042Benchmarked against Energy Consumption per

Capita in Portugal 4500

Energy Requirements• Right to development Energy requirements

0

1E+12

2E+12

3E+12

4E+12

5E+12

6E+12

7E+12

8E+12

9E+12

1E+13

2009 2020 2035

kWh

Total Electricity Generation

USA-Total India-Total

13686 kWh/person13686 kWh/person

13686 kWh/person

638 kWh/person

1450 kWh/person

4500 kWh/person

Coal

Natural GasNuclear

Hydro

Diesel Renewables

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Average Plant Capacity Factors  India USA  

Hydro 38% 37%  

Coal 70% 72%  

Diesel 16% 9% Petroleum

Gas 58% 25%  

Nuclear 47% 91%  

Wind 19% 26%  

SHP 25% 76% Geothermal

Biomass 49% 62%  

Solar PV 15% 18%  

CSP 20% 18%  

MSW 31% 37%  

Coal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Hydro

DieselRenewables

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Constraints on Supply - IndiaCoal 600,000

Nuclear 63,000

Gas 100,000

Large Hydro 150,000

Diesel 40,000

Wind 100,000 ? - 800,000?

SHP 15,000

CSP --

Solar PV --

Biomass 50,000

MSW 30,000

Cost Constraints

Sources: TERI Energy Roadmap, NCAER-CGE

2010

(Rs./kWh)2030

(Rs./kWh)

Annual Growth/Red

uction in tariff

Coal 2.1 3.4 1.13%Nuclear 5.1 4.2 -0.45%

Gas 2.5 4.35 1.39%Biomass 4 3.54 -0.30%Hydro 2.5 3.25 0.66%Gasp 3 4.85 1.21%Diesel 7 15.4 2.00%Wind 5.5 4.5 -0.49%CSP 13 9.6 -1.5%SPV 9 6 -2%

Power Plants – Existing vs. New Stock

Scenarios for 4 Carbon Budgets  USA India

 

Total Budget (GtC) - 2010-2050

Budget for Power Sector (GtC)

Total Budget (GtC) - 2010-2050

Budget for Power Sector (GtC)

Scenario - I: No restrictions on emissions for India and USA between 2010 and 2035 -- -- -- --

Scenario -II: Equitable Allocation of Carbon Space within the global budget 18 6 68 24Scenario-III: Annex-I reduce emissions according to their Copenhagen Pledges, Non-Annex-I have to bridge the gap 35 12 30 11Scenario - IV: Budget for USA proposed by National Academy of Sciences, USA; Highly curtailed Budget for Non-Annex-I 54 19 21 7

Scenario –I for India

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Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV

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Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV

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Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV

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Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV

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Impacts on Cost of Electricity

India

Carbon Budget for the Power Sector (35% of total between 2010-

2035) [GtC]

Cost of Energy in 2035 ($/kWh) -@

PPP

Cost of Energy in

2035 ($/kWh) - @ Rs.45/$

Scenario - I -- 0.509 0.181

Scenario -II 24 0.668 0.237

Scenario-III 11 0.978 0.348

Scenario - IV 7 1.063 0.378

Financial Burden on India vs. USATotal Cost of Electricity

Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion US$]

Additional Burden As Compared to Scenario-I

India (@ Market Prices)

Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion

USD] Additional Burden As

Compared to Scenario-IScenario – I 13 --Scenario –II 16 3Scenario-III 28 15Scenario – IV 33 20

India (@ PPP)

Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion

USD] Additional Burden As

Compared to Scenario-IScenario - I 38 -- Scenario -II 46 8Scenario-III 79 41

Scenario - IV 92 54

How much Energy do we actually need?

• projections such as these usually account for energy efficiencies, some demand management

• but in a sense, even if these are not BAU in energy terms, they are possibly BAU in terms of development pathways and paradigms

• low-carbon development and tackling climate change in a sustained and sustainable manner will call for radical shifts in the things we do, the way we do things, in lifestyles --- with serious impact on energy use

Reducing Energy Requirement

improve end-use efficiencies (300 Mtoe by 2031) advanced coal, gas based generation tech’s.

(122Mtoe) increase renewables, nuclear (72 Mtoe) increase efficiencies in transport (190 Mtoe)

700 Mtoe reduction possible

power generation capacity could be reduced by 128 GW ( 2001 cap.)

“National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007

Energy Efficiencies in Transport

• energy use projected to increase >10 times to 460 Mtoe by 2031

• most reduction through normal tech. upgradation

• road-to-rail modal shift for freight and passenger

• private to public transport shift

“National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007

Evolving Mexico offer!

Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – High Coal Scenario

  Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total

Total Energy Supplied (%)

66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100%

Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)

2006 365 61 91 334 182 3040

Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)

70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26  

Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 327 59 43 15 100 80 625

Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)

485 78 63 31 176 123 956

Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Low Nuclear Scenario

  Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total

Total Energy Supplied (%)

45% 15% 2% 3% 14% 21% 100%

Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)

1368 456 61 91 426 638 3040

Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)

70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26  

Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 74 43 15 128 280 764

Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)

289 102 63 31 234 445 1163

Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Medium Nuclear Scenario

  Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total

Total Energy Supplied (%)

45% 14% 2% 7% 13% 19% 100%

Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)

1368 426 61 213 395 578 3040

Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)

70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26  

Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 69 43 35 119 254 743

Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)

289 94 63 78 215 405 1144

Energy target in Low Carbon Pathway• if India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of

an equitable global deal… • ---and adopts low-C development pathways

Dream Projections for 2035 (with improvements in conversion efficiency)

  2010 2035

Population (in billions) 1.15 1.52

Primary Energy (EJ) 28.4 ~87

Primary Energy per capita (GJ) 24.7 ~57

Electricity Use (in billion units) 811 3040

Electricity Use per capita (units) 705 2000

• reduce coal use from 60-66% to 40%?

Towards a Low Carbon Pathway• promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not

just as “trickle down” supposition• demand: “electricity for all” and “equitable access to

modern cooking energy”• so some sectors of economy and sections of society

consume less, so others can get more• address urbanization: rapid urbanization is much

spoken about, but why is it valorized? Some data suggests 40% more emissions!

• 50% rural pop. even in 2050!! Should we not build on this?

• new production-distribution patterns

Thank you