Energy outlook of Asia With Out China

7/29/2019 Energy outlook of Asia With Out China

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Regular fulltime postgraduate degree

programme in energy technology

Class Year: 1 Semester: 1

Introduction to Energy Technology

(MENG 6211)

Case study one

Prepared by: 1. Alemnew Ebabu

2. Kibrom Gebremedhin CE\PR006\2002

Instructor: Dr. Mulu B.

Assistant Instructor: Mr. Anwar M.

November 05, 2010


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Energy case study on Asia without china

1. IntroductionAsia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the eastern andnorthern hemispheres. It covers 8.6% of the Earths total surface area (or 29.9% of its landarea) and with approximately 4 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current humanpopulation.Historical Perspectives of Energy Consumption

Without energy, life does not exist. All forms of life extract energy from the environment andconvert it to forms which can be used. Our environment has three primary energy sources

Solar energyo radiant energyo 17.3 x 1016 watts

energy the Earth's interioro geothermal energyo 32.3 x 1012 watts

planetary energyo energy of

gravitationalattraction

o tideso 2.7 x 1012 watts

Figure 1: Source:http://ess.geology.ufl.edu/ess/Notes/020-Intro_ESS/Fig2.html

Throughout history, man has developed ways to expand his ability to harvest energy. Theprimitive man found in East Africa 1,000,000 years ago, who had yet to discover fire, hadaccess only to the food he ate so his daily energy consumption has been estimated at 2,000Kcal or 2,000 dietary calories. Energy consumption of the hunting man found in Europeabout 100,000 years ago was about 2.5 times that of the primitive man because he had bettermethods of acquiring food and also burned wood for both heating and cooking. Energyconsumption increased again by almost 2.5 times as man evolved into the primitiveagricultural man of about 5,000 years ago who harnessed draft animals to aid in growingcrops. The advanced agricultural man of 1400 A.D. northwestern Europe again doubled theamount of energy consumption as he began inventing devices to tap the power of wind and

water began to utilize small amounts of coal for heating and harnessed animals to providetransportation. The dawn of the age of industrialization, ushered in by the invention of thesteam engine, caused a 3-fold increase in energy consumption by 1875. Among other things,the steam engine allowed man to unlock the Earth's vast concentrated storage deposits ofsolar energy - coal, gas and oil so he no longer was limited to natural energy flows. Whereasincreases in energy consumption had been gradual throughout history, once industrializationoccurred, the rate of consumption increased dramatically over a period of just a fewgenerations. The technological man of 1970 in the U.S. consumed approximately 230,000Kcal of energy per day (~115 times that of primitive man) with about 26% of that amountbeing electrical energy. Of that electrical energy only about 10% resulted in useful workwhile the remaining 16% was wasted by inefficiencies in electrical generation and

transmission. The change in energy consumption patterns over time are shown in Figure 2below.


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Figure 2: Estimated Daily Consumption of Energy per Capita at Different Historical Points

Adapted from: E. Cook, "The Flow of Energy in an Industrial Society" Scientific American, 1971 p. 135.

2.Energy potentialFigure 3 Proved coalreserves at end-1999:regional distribution

Figure 4 Coal productionand consumption, 1999:regional distribution


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Figure 9: Hydropower-technically exploitablecapability and 1999generation (all schemes):regional distribution

Figure5:

Hydrocarbon

reserves\

production

ratios

Figure 6: Proved gas

reserves at end-1999:

regional distribution

Figure 7: Gas

reserves\

production

ratios, 1999:

regional

distribution

Figure 8: Cumulative

production and

proved reserves of

uranium at end-1999:

regional distribution


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3.Energy Generation and consumption3.1 Outlook for primary energy consumption

World primary energy consumption is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of steady1.7% over the forecast period under annual GDP growth of 3.1% to 2030. The volume in

2030 is expected to reach 15.9 billion tons oil equivalent (btoe), a 1.6-fold increase from the10.2 btoe in 2004. Primary energy consumption in Asia is projected to grow at 2.8% perannum and reach 6.2 btoe in 2030, for a 2.0-fold increase from 3.1 btoe in 2004.

Figure 10: World primary energy consumption to 2030 by region.

Stronger growth is anticipated in countries achieving fast-paced economic growth, such as

China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Primary energy demand in India isforecast to increase sharply at 4.0% per annum, and would reach 1.0 btoe, around 2.8 timesmore than 0.4 btoe in 2004.However, energy consumption per person of China and India in 2030, each 1.9 toe and 0.7toe per capita, remains well under the level of developed countries, for instance, 5.4 toe percapita in OECD average at 2030. As such, China and India have large potential of energydemand expansion even after 2030 and its presence in the global energy market wouldbecome even larger.

Figure11: Asia primary energy consumption to 2030 by region.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Middle EastAfricaOceania

2004

10.2 billion toe

2030

15.9 billion toe(1.6-fold increase)

World

Asia

2004

3.1 billion toe

2030

6.2 billion toe(2.0-fold increase)

Asia

N.America

OECD Europe

Non-OECD Europe

L.America

* Average annual growth rate

3.9 %4.2 %GDP (Asia)

3.1 %3.1 %GDP (World)

2.8 %4.7 %Asia

1.0 %1.2 %N.America

1.7 %2.2 %World

04-3071-04

AAGR*

3.9 %4.2 %GDP (Asia)

3.1 %3.1 %GDP (World)

2.8 %4.7 %Asia

1.0 %1.2 %N.America

1.7 %2.2 %World

04-3071-04

AAGR*

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

China J apanSouth Korea IndiaIndonesia Taiwan

Singapore MalaysiaPhilippines ThailandVietnam Hong KongOther Asia

China

apanSouth Korea

India

Mtoe

45%

46%

9%

17%

7%

6%

16%

12%

2004

3.1 billion toe

2030

6.2 billion toe

(2.0-fold increase)

2004

1.4 bil. toe 0.4 bil. toe

2030

2.9 bil. toe 1.0 bil. toe(2.1-fold inc.) (2.8-fold inc.)

Asia

China / India

AAGR China Japan South Korea India Indonesia Taiwan Singapore

1971-2004 5 .5% 2 .1% 8 .0% 5 .5% 8 .4% 7 .2% 6 .8%

2004-2030 2 .8% 0 .0% 1 .8% 4 .0% 3 .6% 2 .0% 2 .7%

Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Hong Kong Other Asia

7 .6% 4 .2% 7 .9% 4 .0% 5 .0% 3 .6%

4.5% 4 .2% 4 .1% 4 .4% 1 .4% 4 .6%


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In Asia, about 50% of the consumption increase over the period should derive from expandedconsumption in China, followed by India at 20%, Indonesia at 6%, Thailand at 5%, SouthKorea at 4%, and Malaysia at 3% each. The share of the primary energy consumption in Asiaoccupied by China is forecast to expand from 45% in 2004 to 46% in 2030. The outlook alsoenvisions an expansion from 12% to 16% for India, 4% to 5% for Indonesia, and 3% to 4%

for Thailand. In contrast, the share of Japan is predicted to decline from 17% in 2004 to 9%in 2030 owing to factors such as economic maturation and population decrease, therebyranking the country third in this connection, behind China and India in Asia.3.2 Outlook for primary energy consumption, final energy demand, and power generation by

energy source

Fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are expected to contribute about 90% of the increase inprimary energy consumption over the years 2004 - 2030, and therefore would continue toplay an important role as energy sources. Primary coal demand is predicted to show thelargest increase of all fossil fuels and account for 35% of the increase in primary energyconsumption, followed by oil at 33%, and natural gas at 19%. In Asia, coal and oil will play acentral role in primary energy supply while gas, nuclear and renewables gradually

diversifying supply sources, to 2030. Meanwhile, in the world, oil will remain the singlelargest fuel whereas natural gas will overtake coal as the worlds second-largest energysource around 2030.Coal consumption in Asia is projected to rise at 2.2% per annum, with its share of primaryenergy consumption declining from 48% in 2004 to 42% in 2030, but coal wouldnevertheless remain the single-largest energy source in Asia. By sector, 99% of coal increaseis projected to come from the power sector.Oil consumption is forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, with itsshare in primary energy demand forecast to remain unchanged from 35% in 2004 to 34% by2030. By sector, it is estimated that 56% of oil increase will derive from transportation sector,20 % from residential and commercial sector, and 16% from industry sector.Consumption of natural gas is anticipated to increase at an average annual rate of 4.3%, thehighest among the fossil fuels, where the installation of combined-cycle power generationsteadily proceeds due to its technological advances and considerations of environmentalcompatibility. By sector, 56% of the increase in natural gas consumption would derive fromthe fuel input into the power sector, 28% from industrial sector, and 15% from residential andcommercial sector. Expanded utilization in power sector is expected to drive an increase inthe natural gas share of primary consumption, from 10% in 2004 to 14% by 2030.

Figure12: Asia primary energy consumption to 2030 by energy source.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

3.9%4.2%GDP(Asia)

2.6%3.6%Oil

2.2%4.8%Coal

4.3%10.5%Gas

2.8%4.7%TPES**

04-3071-04

AAGR*

3.9%4.2%GDP(Asia)

2.6%3.6%Oil

2.2%4.8%Coal

4.3%10.5%Gas

2.8%4.7%TPES**

04-3071-04

AAGR*

Oil35%34%

Coal48%42%

Gas10%14%

Nuclear4.4%5.7%

Other renewables0.9%3.0%

Hydro1.8%1.6%


* * Total Primary Energy Supply


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Nuclear is forecast to rise at an average annual growth rate of 3.8%. The nuclear share ofprimary energy in Asia is expected to increase from 4.4% to 5.7% owing to the fast-pacedexpansion of electricity demand particularly in China and India. Nuclear capacity over theworld is projected to grow from 385GW in 2005 to 499GW in 2030, achieving 114 GWgrowth.

There are high expectations for the diffusion of renewable energy sources with littleenvironmental burden, such as hydropower, geothermal energy, and new energy. Their shareof primary energy consumption in Asia is forecast to increase from 2.7% in 2004 to 4.6% by2030. They are, however, not going to become a major supply source the same as fossilresources, due to their higher supply cost and supply instability deriving from naturalinfluences, such as the intermittent nature of photovoltaics and wind power, the maximumpotentials of which are also constrained in order to maintain a supply reliability of powersystem.

Figure13: Power generation in Asia to 2030 by energy source.

Vehicle ownership to 2030, In Asia and other largely developing regions, consumption ofgasoline, gas oil, and other transportation fuel is rapidly expanding. Among the developedcountries, motorization has already run its course and the demand is more or less saturated.

3.3 Oil demand and supply outlook in Asia to 2030

Figure14: Oil demand and supply balance in Asia to 2030.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

TWh

0.4 %0.8 %Oil

3.6 %8.8 %Coal

5.2 %13.8 %Gas

3.7 %6.4 %Total

04-3071-04

AAGR*

0.4 %0.8 %Oil

3.6 %8.8 %Coal

5.2 %13.8 %Gas

3.7 %6.4 %Total

04-3071-04

AAGR*

Oil-fired7.4%3.2%

Coal-fired56%55%

Gas-fired14%20%

Nuclear10%10%

Other renewables0.9%4.4%

Hydro12%9%


Net Oil Import

2005

14.8mb/d

203038.9mb/d

(2.6-fold growth)

2005 2030

China3.1 mb/d 14.7 mb/d

J apan

5.1 mb/d 4.1 mb/d

India

1.7 mb/d 7.5 mb/d

329

486

625

941

1,243

1,650

98195

289393

333261 239232

291 336

548

910

1,389

1,865

2,105

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Demand Production Net import

Mtoe

70%

60%54%

58%

73%

84%

89%

Rate of import dependence


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4.Energy overall trend

Figure 15: Electricity generation by fuel in Asia excluding China

Figure 16: Consumption of oil products in Asia excluding china

Figure 17: Energy production in Asia excluding China


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Figure 18: Total primary energy supply* in Asia excluding China

Figure 19: Share of total primary energy supply* in 2008 Asia excluding China

5. Energy Investment needsMeeting increased energy demand in the future will require large capacity additions andsignificant investments. During the next 25 years, the IEA estimates that investments of morethan US$8.2 trillion will be needed to build and maintain the energy supply infrastructure tosatisfy projected demand in Asian and the Pacific economies (Figure 20). The higher-incomemembers would generally require less energy investment as a share of GDP, while the lower-income members require higher energy investment as a share of GDP. In addition to theeconomic development level, other factors such as industry structure and resource availabilitycontribute to determining the necessary size of energy investment relative to the size of GDP.

Figure 20Baseline Scenario Energy Investment Needs for Asia and the Pacific Source: UN ESCAP, 2008


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As power generation is the fastest growing energy sector, a large proportion of theseprojected investments will be made in electricity generation infrastructure.Investments in coal, oil, and gas from 2005 to 2030 in developing Asia are projected to reachUS$1.4 trillion, or roughly US$56.7 billion annually. It is estimated that developing Asiasshare of the investment will equal 43 % of total world investment. Within the region, China is

expected to attract 62 % of this investment and India about 20 %. The global renewableenergy sector has seen a sharp rise in investments in recent years, signaling an increasedemphasis on displacing conventional energy with clean technologies. Nevertheless, globalinvestments in the conventional power sector are expected to remain well above investmentsin the renewable energy sector.As Figure 21 shows, the electricity sectorincluding generation, transmission, anddistributionwill require the largest investment, accounting for 63.9% of the total. This isfollowed by the investment for oil and gas production at 17.7% and coal (includingproduction and transport) at 11.8%. The investment required to build infrastructure for oiland gas trade accounts for 3.6% of the total investment requirements. Investment needs fordomestic oil and gas supply account for the smallest share of 3.1%.

Sub regional shares of the total energy investment requirements are shown in Figure 22. EastAsia will account for nearly half of the entire energy investment requirements of Asia and thePacific. South Asia will follow, accounting for 15.8% of total investment, and the DevelopedGroup will take up the third-largest share at 15.1%.

Since the capital investment requirements in certain energy infrastructure offer diversity dueto different choices in technology and other factors such as land price, material price, andconstruction costs, two casescovering high and low investment requirementsare

estimated based on the projected energy demand outlook. Investment requirements as well asthe GDP figures in this section are presented in US dollars in constant 2006 prices.

Figure 21: Energy Investment

outlook for Asia and the Pacific

(High Case)

Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Figure 22: Energy Investment

outlook by sub region (High Case)

Source: APERC analysis (2009).


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Figure 23: Energy Investment outlook by sub region (Low Case and High Case Increments)Source: APERC analysis (2009).

Developed group are countries: Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

6.Energy policyThe 2009 Energy Policy is congruent with Strategy 2020, enabling energy operations to bealigned with ADB's overall strategy emphasizing energy security, facilitating a transition to alow-carbon economy, universal access to energy, and for achieving ADBs vision of a regionfree of poverty.

The objective of the 2009 Energy Policy is to help DMCs provide reliable, adequate, andaffordable energy for inclusive growth in a socially, economically, and environmentallysustainable way. It will emphasize energy efficiency and renewable energy; access to energyfor all; and energy sector reforms, capacity building, and governance.Policy implementation is guided by three pillars emphasized in the Energy Policy:

A. Promoting Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyB. Maximizing Access to Energy for All

C. Promoting Energy Sector Reforms, Capacity Building, and GovernanceImplementation Arrangements:According to EWC, the following six policy measures could make a significant contributionto energy security:

Initiate joint ventures with oil producers (oil exploration and production projects,refineries, storage facilities);

Improve the efficiency of domestic oil markets (energy deregulation, reconsiderationof subsidies);

Buildup strategic oil stocks (OECD/IEA standard); Strengthen regional cooperation (APSA, APEC members, ASEAN);

Reduce transportation bottlenecks (oil pipelines, new port facilities); Establish a regional oil futures market.

7. Energy technology, Efficiency

Energy Efficiency

Efficient use of energy to meet required demand is one of the key options for enhancingenergy security and sustainable development. Introducing advanced technologies, bothsupply-side and demand-side is likely to help slow the overall growth in energy demand.Operational efficiency improvementssuch as in production processes and freighttransportmay result in reduced energy requirements for producing given output levels and

meeting product distribution needs.


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Although progress has been made in energy conservation and energy efficiencyimprovements in the PRC, India, and the Southeast Asian members, obstacles still exist.One major barrier is low domestic energy prices. In some developing members, prices forelectricity, natural gas, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, and other energy products aremaintained at low levels to ensure supply for low-income consumers. As a result, there is

little incentive to improve energy efficiency.Due to financial constraints, developing members have had rather slow progress in applyingadvanced energy-efficient technologies.

To implement effective measures for energy efficiency improvements, the most importantelements may be the application of these advanced technologies and the transfer ofknowledge for improving operational efficiency. Perhaps the establishment of a frameworkfor cooperation among the regional members in Asia and the Pacific may offer an importantplatform to facilitate transfer of technology and knowledge.

The projected growth rate of GDP in Asia and the Pacific, at 3.5% per year through 2030, isfaster than that of the rest of the world. This would naturally translate into the regions fasterenergy demand growth, at an annual rate of 2.4% through 2030compared with the worlds

energy demand growth through 2030 at 1.5%. In consideration of the rising energy importdependency, how to meet the rapid increase in energy demand will continue to be animportant policy agenda within the region.Efficiently utilizing energy to meet the required demand is one of the key options for theenhancement of energy security and sustainable development. Introduction of advancedtechnologies at both the supply side and the demand side will contribute to slowing theoverall growth trends in energy demand. Operational efficiency improvements, such as in theproduction process and in freight transport, will result in lower energy required to produce agiven output level and meet freight needs.In some regional members, the options for energy efficiency improvement have not been wellexploited, due to a variety of reasons. Some members are faced with financial constraints inattempting to apply advanced technologies, while other members provide energy at lowprices due to resource availability or social considerationsand thus the public does notrecognize the need for energy efficiency improvement.Energy Intensity ImprovementEnergy intensity refers to the energy requirements to produce a unit of GDP. A membersenergy intensity is influenced by many factors, including the industry structure, appliedtechnological level, lifestyle, and climate conditions.Figure 24 shows the historical and projected future trends of energy intensity by sub regionfrom 1990 to 2030. Generally, energy intensity has been and will be decreasing.

Figure 24: Regional Energy Intensity Trends from 1990 to 2030Source: APERC analysis (2009).


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Technological Advanced ScenarioTechnological Advanced Scenario assumes a series of energy and environmental policies thatcountries are currently considering or might reasonably be expected to adopt, contributing tomore stability of energy supply and the reinforcement of global warming countermeasures.

The objective is to provide a consistent future of how Asian energy markets might evolve if

Asian governments decided to strengthen their environmental and energy-security policies.The policy measures analyzed have not been selected according to their cost-effectiveness,but rather to reflect the current planning energy-policy in each Asian country.In Technological Advanced Scenario, primary energy consumption in Asia in 2030 isexpected to achieve 5,266 Mtoe, 943 Mtoe or 15% less than in the Reference Scenario. Theamount of saved energy in 2030 is roughly equal to 1.8 times of total primary energy demandcurrently in Japan. Energy demand is projected to grow by 2.1% per year, 0.7 percentagepoints less than in the Reference Scenario.

Figure25: Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions of Asia in Technological Advanced Scenario

The reduction in demand for fossil fuels is even bigger, due to the use of more efficienttechnology and switching to less carbon-intensive fuels. Demand for fossil fuels is 1,094Mtoe, or 20% lower. On the other hand, the supply of non-hydro renewables increases. Theuse of other forms of energy is expected to increase by the following percentages: 14% fornuclear power, 34% for hydro power and 63% for renewables. The impact of energyconservation policies on energy demand deepens throughout the forecast period, as the stockof energy capital is gradually replaced. Energy conservation in Asia achieved by 2010 is only5%.

Figure26: Change in energy demand by energy source between Reference and TechnologicalAdvanced Scenario in Asia.

2,954

3,7483,396

914

1,422

589

3,157

4,843

2,526

4,015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt-C

Reference

Technological

Advanced

3,636

5,2664,460

1,060

1,684

669

3,828

6,209

3,063

5,007

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Reference

Technological

Advanced

940 Mtoedecline(15% decline)

2.8Reference

2.1TA

3.9GDP

2004-

2030

AAGR(%)

2.8Reference

2.1TA

3.9GDP

2004-

2030

AAGR(%)

1.1 Gt-C decline(23% decline)

2.5Reference

1.6TA

3.9GDP

2004-

2030

AAGR(%)

2.5Reference

1.6TA

3.9GDP

2004-

2030

AAGR(%)

Primary Energy Demand CO2 Emissions

-776

-235

-84

52 3486

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro

Renewables

etc.

-30%

-11%

-9%

14% 34% 63%

Rate of Change from ReferenceMtoe

Decreasing of fossil fuel

consumption by 20%(1.09billion toe decrease)


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Coal demand declines in the Technological Advanced Scenario. Primary coal demand rises to1,803 Mtoe in 2030 in the Technological Advanced Scenario. In 2030, energy conservation incoal achieves about 30% or 1,100 Mtce, the scale of which corresponds to 3.6 times of coaldemand in India, 0.7 times in China. The saving is bigger than for any other fuel, both inabsolute and in percentage terms. The average annual growth rate of coal demand is 0.8%,

1.4 points lower than in the Reference Scenario.Promoting clean coal technology in Asia has tremendous significance in order to ensure coalsupply and environmental protection.Primary oil demand increases to 1,870 Mtoe (39mb/d) in 2030 in the TechnologicalAdvanced Scenario, 230 Mtoe (4.9mb/d), or 11% lower than in the Reference. This savingvolume is roughly equivalent to the annual oil production of Iran and Oman together.Natural gas demand is 80 Mtoe, or 9% lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario, thevolume of which is equal to 1.2 times of current LNG imports in Japan. High efficienttechnology such as MACC - More Advanced Combined Cycle etc. - is expected to contributelargely to ensure gas demand and supply in Asia.In the Technological Advanced Scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions are 3.7 Gt-C in 2030,

48% higher than current emissions. This is about 1.1 Gt-C, or 22% lower than in theReference Scenario. The reduction is comparable to the current emissions of China or 3.2times of Japan. By 2030, carbon-free fuels hold 16% of Asian primary energy demand in the

Technological Advanced Scenario, four percentage points more than in the ReferenceScenario. Among the fossil fuels, coal experiences the biggest decline in market share from42% to 34%. On average, CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumed are 14% lower in 2030than in 2004 and 9% lower than in the Reference Scenario.Since fossil fuels would be the source for about 90% of the incremental increase in world primary

energy consumption through 2030, CO2 emissions, which came to about 7.4 billion (carbon-

equivalent) tons in 2004, are forecast to reach about 11.4 billion tons by 2030. World CO2 emissions

would consequently expand at an average annual rate of 1.7%, about the same as for primary energy

consumption, and exhibit a 1.5-fold increase to 2030, with approximately 30% and 60% of the world

increment projected to be accounted for by emissions in China and in the whole Asian region,

respectively.

Figure27: Asia CO2 emissions to 2030 by region.

CO2Emissions from Energy Combustion

One fifth of the worlds population accounts for more than half of world CO2 emissions. Tencountries account for two thirds of world emissions.

2004

7.4 Gt-C

2030

11.4 Gt-C

(1.5-fold growth)

2004

2.5 Gt-C

2030

4.8 Gt-C

(1.9-fold growth)

Asia

World

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

Mt-C

Other Asia

China

1.3Gt-C2.4Gt-C

India

0.31Gt-C0.79Gt-C

J apan

0.31Gt-C0.30Gt-C

50%

27%

52%

22%

16%

6%

12%

14%

2.3 Gt-C

2.5 Gt-C

4.8 Gt-CIncremental increase,2004-2030

47

1134

748

482

J apan China India Other Asia

49%21%

32%


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However, their role is decreasing rapidly, from almost three fourth of total emissions in 1990to 65% in 2000 and 54% in 2008. Since 2008, China has become the largest emitter in frontof the United States with 21% of total emissions, up from 11% in 1990. The top 5 emitters ofenergy related CO2 emissions, China, USA, Russia, India and Japan, represented 56% ofworld emissions in 2008.

The top ten emitters, including in addition Germany, UK, South Korea, South Africa, andItaly made up two thirds of world emissions that year.Developing countries with high economic growth have registered a very rapid increase intheir emissions (by around 160% in China, India and The Middle East). On the opposite,there is no progression in Europe where these emissions are in 2008 back to their 1990 levelbecause of strong climate change policies. North America and OECD Asia & Pacificexperienced a progression in their emissions (38% and 17% respectively), as climate policieshave been weaker in some of the countries (e.g. USA and Australia). The decrease inemissions in the CIS is due to the sharp contraction of their economies in the 90s; since1998, their emissions are however increasing (+14%). As a result of these trends, world CO2emissions from energy use were 40% higher in 2008 than in 1990 and two third of this

growth took place since 2000.Figure 28: Distribution of world CO2emissions from energy use (2008) Source: ENERDATA

Conclusion:

While it is naturally important for the individual countries to make efforts to secure their ownenergy supplies, excessive pursuit of the national interest by any single country could damagethe energy security of the rest of the region. It is, hence, increasingly important for the issueto be treated as one where all Asian countries have a common stake and can elaboratelycommit themselves.

To this end, it is important for the Asian countries to pursue the following major tasks: 1)fuller exercise of bargaining power given their collective position as a massive regional

consumer of oil, and strengthening of ties of dialogue and cooperation with oil producingcountries; 2) strategic construction of a shared reserve scheme for response to emergencies todeal with short-term crises such as oil supply disruptions; 3) promotion of cooperativeresource development and procurement inside and outside the region; 4) enhancement ofregional partnership on effective use of surplus petroleum processing capacity and onenhancing quality standard in petroleum supply; 5) ensuring security at the Straits of Malaccaand establishing emergency program including securing alternative transport route; and 6)development of regional cooperation on diversification of fuels with oil sands and bio-fueletc.


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AbbreviationsADB - Asian Development BankAPERC - Asian-Pacific Energy Research CenterAPEC - Asian-Pacific Economic CooperationAPSA - Asian-Pacific Trade Agency

ASEAN-plus3 - Association of Southeast Asian Nationsbtoe - billion tons of oil equivalentCIS - commonwealth of independent statesDMC - Developing member countryEWC - East West CentreGDP - gross domestic productGwh - tera watt hourIEA - international energy agencyLNG - liquefied natural gasLPG - liquefied petroleum gasMACC - More Advanced Combined Cycle

mb/d - million barrels per dayMtoe - million tons of oil equivalentNGL - natural gas liquidsOECD - organization for economic cooperation and developmentPRC - peoples republic of china

TPES - total primary energy supplyTwh - tera watt hourUK - United Kingdom

References:

1 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency(OECD/IEA) (2006), World energy outlook 2006, OECD, Paris.

2 US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis andForecasting (2006), International energy outlook 2006, DOE/EIA, Washington DC, USA.

3 European Commission (2003), World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030,

European Commission, Brussels.

4 Ito, K., Morita, Y. and Komiyama, R.:Asia/World energy outlook 2006 , IEEJ Research Paper,

September 2006 (http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/index.html)

5 Nakanishi, T. and Komiyama, R.:Supply and Demand Analysis on Petroleum Products and Crude

Oils for Asia and the World, IEEJ Research Paper, August 2006

(http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/index.html)

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Energy outlook of Asia With Out China

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