Energy Planning

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IAEA Tools for

Energy System PlanningandNuclear Energy System Modelling

NESA Support Package

IAEA/INPRO group


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WS NESA Kazakhstan, 2011

Part I IAEA Tools for Energy System Planning

Based on Training Material ofPlanning and Economic Studies Section

Department of Nuclear EnergyInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Content

Introduction Energy system planning and INPRO assessment

Energy Tools and Methodologies for Energy Planning

IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy Planning MAED

MESSAGE

WASP

FINPLAN

SIMPACTS

ISED


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Energy system planning and INPRO

assessmentDevelopment of energy demand scenariosNational, regional, global

Specification of the potential role of nuclear

power

to contribute to mix of energy supply

National, regional, global

Selection of components of NES

Modelling of NES

Energy system

planning

NESA using the

INPRO methodology

Evaluation of energy supply options

National, regional, global

Holistic Nuclear Energy System Assessment

in all INPRO areas

Part I

Part IIModeling of NES


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Energy Tools and Methodologies for

ES Planning


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IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy

Planning

Model for theAnalysis ofEnergy Demand

WienAutomatic System Planning Package

Model forEnergy Supply SystemAlternatives andtheirGeneral Environmental impacts

Financial Analysis of Electric Sector ExpansionPlans

MAED

WASP

MESSAGE

FINPLAN

SIMPACTS

ISED

Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts ofElectricity Generation

Indicators forSustainable Energy Development


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Development of energy demand scenarios

Energy demand Scenario

Overall energy situation :

national energy resourceendowment, technology options,

economic structural change,

environmental impacts,

social developments and

policy aspects

Economic and demographic growth,structural economic change and

the dynamics of sectoral energy

intensities

MAED


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Final Energy DemandElectricity Demand

Hourly Electric Load

Load Duration Curves

Base Year

Social Data

Economic Data

Technological DataMAEDModule1

Module 2

Development Policies

Final Energy Demand

MAED: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand


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Methodological Approach of MAED

Final Energy Demand

Industry Transportation Household Service

Fuel Types:Oil, Gas, Traditional, Renewable,

Nuclear

Energy End-uses:Thermal, Mechanical, Specific,

Non-Energy

Energy

efficiencies,

Market

penetrations


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Methodological Approach of MAED

MAED methodology comprises the following sequence ofoperation

(1) disaggregation of the total energy demand of thecountry or region into a large number of end-use categoriesin a coherent manner;

(2) identification of the social, economic and technologicalparameters which affect each end-use category of the

energy demand; (3) establishing in mathematical terms the relationships

which relate energy demand and the factors affecting thisdemand;

(4) developing (consistent) scenarios of social, economicand technological development for the given country; (5) evaluation of the energy demand resulting from each

scenario;


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MAED: Hourly Electric Power Demand

Model takes into account :

The trend of the average annualgrowth rate of electricity demand; The seasonal changes in

electricity consumption (thisvariation may be reflected on amonthly or weekly basis, depending

on available information); The changes in electricity

consumption owing to the type ofday being considered (i.e. workingdays, weekends, special holidaysetc.);

The hourly variation inelectricity consumption during thegiven type of day considered.

Hourly Electric Load

Load Duration Curves

0

0.5

1

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 2 22 23 24


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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple

approach

An assessor may base his assumptions for the nuclear energy demand ondata provide by authoritative studies performed by energy policyorganizations within his country or by other international organizations, or;

An assessor may construct a general energy demand, and a nuclearenergy demand, based on simple generic assumptions starting from trendsin population growth, energy use per capita, technological readiness andtypical market share potential, and expected evolution of market share for

nuclear energy systems .

This simplistic approach is based on considering three factors,

expected population growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and

electricity intensity as a function of GDP.


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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple approach

Study for Armenia

Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study for Armenia, 1999-2020, TECDOC-1404, July 2004 per capita GDP $ 462 in 1999 to $ 1552 reference growth , $ 1019 low growth in 2020, the population growth from 3.2 million in 1999 to 3.26 million in 2020, The electricity demand 0.41 GW.yr in 1999. simple approach gives: (0.41/3.2)x3.26x(1552/462) = 1.40 GW.yr for the reference scenario, and

(0.41/32.)x3.26x(1019/462) = 0.92 GW.yr, for the low growth scenario. The detailed analysis yields 1.30 GW.yr and01.03 GW.yr for the two scenarios respectively.

Study for Lithuania,Energy Supply Opt ions for Lithuania, TECDOC-1408, September 2004 total GDP increases by a factor of 2.468 between 2000 and 2025 in the base scenario simple approach gives the same factor. Detailed analysis projects an increase of a factor of 2.238

Study for Poland

Comparative Studies on Energy Supply Options in Poland for 1997-2020, TECDOC-1304,August 2002

population increases from 38.66 million to 40.34 million per capita income increases for a total increase over the period by a factor of 2.47.

simple approach gives a factor of (40.34/38.660x2.47) = 2.58. Electr ical intensity of GDP was also expected todecrease by an average factor of about 25 % over this period, thus demand for electr ical energy is 1.93 Detailedmodeling gives essentially the same result.


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Evaluation of energy supply options

National, regional, globalThis kind of energy planning study has to consider many aspects such as

the availability of fuels (fossil fuels, uranium, etc.) and the reliability of their supply, sufficiency of domestic supply to meet the projected demand,

the possibility for energy imports, potential for energy exports, industrial capacity and the ability to supply components of a proposed energy system, the technical characteristics of the supply options such as

unit sizes, times between maintenance outages, characteristic capacity factors, grid size, peak to base load demand, and the current development of the energy infrastructure.

In general the selection of energy supply options will be based on driving forces such aseconomic considerations (e.g., availability of capital, cost of energy services, etc.), takinginto account constraints such as the availability of fuels, the need to limit environmentalemissions , and the desire to limit imports and diversify fuel types for strategic reasons,etc.


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Specifying the national role of nuclear energy and

the selection of NES

Share of nuclear in total demand

Expansion rate of total& nuclear demand

Time of nuclear introduction

Size of plant Grid size

Specification of NES components


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MESSAGE Introduction

Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and

their General Environmental impacts

1. Developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

2. IAEA adapted and further developed it, and also added a user-interface.

3. It is a software designed for setting up optimization models of energysupply systems in the medium to long-term considering their general

environmental impacts.

4. Optimization Criterion: Minimizing total system cost (value of theobjective function). Mathematical Techniques: Linear programming,

Mixed-integer programming


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MESSAGE Model OverviewA Physical Flow Model

Given a vector of demands, the model assuressuff icient supply, utilising the available resources and

technologies Definition of:

energy levels: primary, secondary, final, useful

energy forms (ex. coal, heat) and energy services actually used

energy technologies: inputs, outputs, efficiencies domestic resources and imports of energy

Technologies in MESSAGE represent a process that converts one energy form into another energy form or into energy

service e.g. conversion of crude oil to oi l products, oil products toelectricity, electricity to light

transfers/transmits/distributes an energy form

supplies/produces an energy form (e.g. hydro power, oil import)


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MESSAGE

INPUT&OUTPUT

OUTPUT

MESSAGE

INPUT

Energy systemstructure (includingvintage of plant andequipment)

Base year energyflows and prices

Energy demandprojections (MAED)

Technology andresource options &their techno-economic

performance profiles

Technical andpolicy constraints

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TWh

biomass

geoth

hydro

nuclear

gas

diesel

fuel oil

coal

Primary and final energy mix Emissions and waste streams Health and environmental impacts

(externalities)

Resource use Land use Import dependence Investment requirements


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Energy Flow Network in MESSAGE


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MESSAGE FeaturesDemand Fluctuations: the Load Curve

Seasons, (Winter, Summer, etc.)

Working/Off Days

HoursMaximum 64 divisions possible

Sub-division of a year: e.g. by seasons Number of seasons,

Division of each season by type of day Division of each type of day by parts


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MESSAGE FeaturesRelations and Constraints

This is a powerful feature of MESSAGE and helps theuser model a specific strategy for the developmentof the energy system.

The model provides a flexible framework to definevarious types ofrelationships, between thetechnologies or between technologies andresources, such as:

i. Limit on a technology in relation to some other technologies (e.g., fixingshare of renewable in total electricity generation).

ii. A common limit to be met by a set of technologies (e.g., maximum limiton emission of SO2 from all technologies emitting it).

iii. Constraints between production and installed capacity (e.g., ensure take-or-pay clauses in international gas contracts forcing customers toconsume a minimum share of the contracted level during summermonths).


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Assessment of environmental impacts

The inclusion of environmental emissions in themodel is described as follows:

Air pollution is modelled proportionally to the energy flowsof each energy conversion process or fuel.

Cost and investment, existing capacities, availability,energy consumption and other characteristics of the

emission control technologies are described by a set ofparameters.

Emission control policies or targets are modelled by puttingupper limits on either the emission flows or on emission

concentrations in flue gases. Taxes are applied for CO2, SO2, NOx and dust to analysetheir impact on emission levels caused by the inducedchanges in the energy sector.


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MESSAGE Approaches to Nuclear Modeling

Mining/Milling

Conversion

Enrichment

FuelFabrication

Spent Fuel

Reprocessing

Disposal

FRONT

END

B

ACK

ENd

Spent fuel

Fresh fuel

Pu

Reactor

Using MESSAGE nuclear can be modelled with different level of details:

from general description of energy flows conversion (same as for technologies consuming

hydrocarbon fuels)

to detailed modelling fuel reloads and nuclear isotopes flows through nuclear fuel cycle


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Representation of NPP

Recourses PrimarySecondary

oil Electricitycoalcoal

Coal-Extr

Oil_Imp

Coal PP

Oil_PP

NPP fuel

NPP

NPP fueloil

Elec_TD

Oil_S_F

Electricity oil

Final

Oil_P_S

NPP SF

Front EndBack end


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Special Features of NPPs

Capital intensive technology with big unit size

Initial core/final core,Limited flexibility in operation,

Shut down for refueling

Discharge of spent fuelLong life time

Decommissioning


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MESSAGE

MESSAGE is an extremely

Flexible Model MESSAGE is a flexible framework that allows detailed

description of the energy system being modelled.

It needs users ingenuity to define the system and probepolicy questions

The MESSAGE can be used to develop a model of asystem other than energy system.


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Exampleof conceptual modelling

framework fromBrazil: A Country Profile onSustainable Energy

Development


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Global Estimation of Energy Demand

Global Primary Energy Demand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

yr

E

J

Tatsuya Hanaoka, Reina Kawase, Mikiko Kainuma,

et al. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

Database and Regional Mitigation Analysis. CGER-

REPORT. CGER-DO38-2006. National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, Japan, 2006.

http://www-

cger.nies.go.jp/publication/D038/all_D038.pdf

INTERNATIONAL PANEL ON CLIMATECHANGE, Special Report on Emission

Scenarios, A Special Report of Working

Group III, Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge (2000),

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

Global Estimation of Nuclear Energy


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Global Estimation of Nuclear EnergyDemand

Nuclear Power Capacity Requirement

Ave of the top 5%

Average

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

GWe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2009 2019 2029 2039 2049

GWe

Low Estimate

High Estimate

Major

Nuclear Programmes2008

2030

Low

2030

High

2060

Low

2060

High

2100

Low

2100

High

Capacity in GWe

Canada 13 20 30 25 40 30 85

China 9 50 150 150 750 500 2800

France 63 65 75 80 110 80 130

India 4 20 70 60 350 200 2750

Japan 48 55 70 80 140 80 200Russia 22 45 80 75 180 100 200

United Kingdom 11 20 30 30 80 40 140

United States 99 120 180 150 400 250 1200

SUBTOTAL 363 531 951 887 2538 1627 8443

Smaller Nuclear

Programmes2008

2030

Low

2030

High

2060

Low

2060

High

2100

Low

2100

High

Argentina 1 4 11 5 30 10 90

Armenia 0 1 0 1 1 2 4

South Africa 2 10 25 30 50 30 55

SUBTOTAL 4 30 86 64 251 102 694

Nations Planning Nuclear 20082030

Low

2030

High

2060

Low

2060

High

2100

Low

2100

High

Egypt 0 3 10 6 40 10 90

Indonesia 0 2 6 3 35 5 175

Kazakhstan 0 0 2 3 5 5 20

Turkey 0 5 15 10 50 20 160

Vietnam 0 2 4 4 30 6 120

SUBTOTAL 0 30 112 78 300 126 910

Potential Entrants 20082030

Low

2030

High

2060

Low

2060

High

2100

Low

2100

High

Italy 0 7 20 10 40 25 70

Portugal 0 0 5 5 10 5 14

Other 0 0 8 4 40 20 200WORLD TOTAL 367 604 1289 1140 3538 2062 11046

IPPC

IAEA

WNA


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Load forecast

Existing system

Candidates

Constraints:

Reliability Implementation

Fuel

Generation

Emissions

INPUT

WASP

OUTPUT

Build schedule Generation Costs Fuel consumption Emissions

WASP

WienAutomatic System Planning Package

FINPLAN


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INPUT

Investment programme(= capacity additions)& operating expenses

Economic and fiscalparameters (inflation,escalation, exchangerates, taxes)

Financial parameters

(credits, bonds)

FINPLAN

For each year:

Cash flows

Balance Sheet,Statement of Sources,

Applications of Funds Financial Ratios:

- Working Capital Ratio

- Leverage ratio

- Debt Repayment Ratio

- - Global Ratio

OUTPUT

FINPLANFinancial Analysis of Electric Sector

Expansion Plans

SIMPACTS


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SIMPACTSSimplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of

Electricity GenerationOUTPUT

Case 1 (minimal results):

uniform world model (UWM)estimate for total exposure

quantification of health impacts

monetisation of impacts

Case 2 (more output):

estimates 1 adjusted foreffective stack height(including H+V

exit+T

exit)

INPUT

Case 1 (minimum datarequirements):

pollutant emission rates regional population density

(< 1000 km)

source location (urban/rural)

Case 2 (some more data):

stack characteristics

local population (


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ISED: Indicators for Sustainable EnergyDevelopment

Measuring.

Energy Accessibility

Energy Affordability

Energy Security

Energy Efficiency/Intensity

Environmental Impact

Evaluating Successful

Development Strategies


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Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development:

Social dimension (4 indicators); Examples: Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial

energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy

Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity

Economic dimension (16 indicators); Examples: Energy use per capita

Energy use per unit of GDP Sectoral energy intensities

Environmental dimension (10 indicators); Examples:

GHG emissions from energy production and use, per capita and per unit ofGDP Air pollutant emissions from energy system


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A comprehensive study

of Brazils energy systemshows that:

Energy expenses oftentake a bigger share ofthe budgets of the poor,and

The poor consumeless electrici ty andmainly for basic needs

Example of national and regional case studies

A major pr iori ty for Brazil is to satisfy growing energy demandfuelled by population and economic growth, and to balance

this effort with environmental priorities and other issues suchas energy affordability, accessibility, security and efficiency.

Policies proposed in this study (e.g. expansion of naturalgas supply and use, renewable energy portfolio standards,expansion of production and use of ethanol fuel, andeduced electrici ty demand and fuel use) may representeffective mechanisms to achieve higher levels ofsustainable energy .

Options for Energy Supply After the Closing of


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Options for Energy Supply After the Closing ofthe Ignalina NPP

The goal is to evaluate the future supply options after theclosing of the Ignalina NPP and the implications of thetiming of its closing

Economic impacts Fuel supply security Environmental impacts

0 .0

500 .0

1000 .0

1500 .0

2000 .0

2500 .0

3000 .0

3500 .0

4000 .0

4500 .0

5000 .0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Y e a r

thous.

to.e.

P e a t

N u c l e a r

C o a l

R e n e w a b l e s

G as

O r im u l s i o nO il

a) Closing of Ignalina by the endof 2009 leads to high dependence

on gas import

b) Replacing Ignalina by a new NPPreduces import dependency, increases

fuel diversity

Fuel Consumption with and without nuclear power

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Y e a r

thous.

to.e.

P e a t

N u c l e a r

C o a l

R e n e w a b l e s

G as

O r im u l s i o nO il

Example of national case studies


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IAEA prepared a study on

Ghana under the umbrella

of UN-Energy (UN

interagency energy

group) to model

renewable policy options

A Country Profile of

South Africa explores

a variety of energy

options for enhanced

access and

affordability

A Country Profile of Cuba

presents a comprehensive

assessment of the Cuban

energy system performed

within a sustainable

development framework.

Example of national case studies

Assessing policy

options for increasing

the use of renewable

energy for sustainable

development:

Modelling energy

scenarios for Sichuan,

China


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Technical Co-operation Projects

Co-ordinated Research Projects

Regional/National Workshops

and

Training Courses

Mechanisms for IAEA Assistance

eTraining (Distance Learning)


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eTraining (Distance Learning)

The IAEA has expanded its trainingservices with the use of speciallydesigned web oriented trainingpackages for distance learning. Thesepackages are being used for on-line

delivery of training through webbased learning management andaudio/video conferencingtechnologies.

Video Conferences On-Line Tutor


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MESSAGE Distance Learning Package together

with Demo Cases (Russian version )

Distance Learning Package


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Distance Learning Package(Russian version of MESSAGE )

Energy Models Dissemination


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Energy Models DisseminationGrowing Demand for Training

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Numberofpersonstra

ined

eTraining

Coventional

120 Member States are

using IAEAs Energy Models

Follow up Expert Support


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Follow-up Expert Support

Tele-Support Expert Service for IAEAs Energy Models Users

Requests for trouble-shooting

Questions on modelling problems

Queries on updates, etc


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The IAEAs set of models provides a comprehensive analytical frameworkfor exploring a range of energy issues and informing sound policydecisions for the development of the energy sector.

These models are used for developing national energy plans and to frame

energy laws and regulations for restructured markets.

The models are also being used to prepare national communications toUNFCCC on greenhouse gas inventories.

Taken together the models provide broad coverage of all the important

energy issues, they collectively have the flexibility to be adapted to theoften very different constraints, needs and applications appropriate to

different developing countries.

Summary


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Thank you for your attention

www.IAEA.org/INPRO

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