Energy policies and management of carbon balance in Estonia

Olga Gavrilova, Tiina Randla, Raivo Vilu

Tallinn University of Technology

Climate change is one of the greatest concerns for the global community

Overheating of Earth is a real danger

The goal of UNFCCC is ‘stabilization of Greenhouse Gases concentrations in the atmosphere at the level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate change’

The commitments of Kyoto protocol extend this to ‘achieving of emission limitation and reduction, and protection and enhancement of GHG sinks and reservoirs’

Estonia is an Annex B country of Kyoto Protocol, Estonia has an obligation to reduce CO2 emissions 8% by

2008-2012 in comparison with 1990

20 million tons of oil shale was extracted and used in

1990

10-12 million tons of oil shale has been extracted and used in

1994-2003

1 ton of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of oil shale on burning

Estonian oil shale enterprises have the right to sell “hot air” for more than €60 million

The price of 1 ton of CO2 quota was yesterday €23

The resources for electricity generation, 2003

Oil Shale, 92.2%

Natural gas, 5.0%

Other, 2.2% Hydro, 0.1%Wind, 0.0%

Peat, 0.2%

Shale oil, 0.3%

Efficiency of electricity production from oil shale

5,068

35,373

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oil shale resource consumption Electricity consumption by end-users

TW

h

Efficiency of electricity generation

14%

Energy intensity of the economy, kgoe (kilogram of oil equivalent) per 1000 Euro (at constant prices, 1995=100)

CO2 emission per GDP of countries of European Union, 2003

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Bul

garia

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Icel

and

Irel

and

Italy

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Nor

way

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Rom

ania

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden

Tur

key

UK

kg C

O2/

GD

P (

2000

$)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

kg C

O2/

PP

P (

2000

$)

CO2/ GDP CO2 / GDP (PPP)

However, oil shale industry in Estonia is thriving currently

Especially after the price of oil barrel exceeded

$50Estonia is the only offshore territory for oil

shale industry in the world

In this economical and political conditions we are discussing

(oil shale) energy policies…

Renewable resources of energy in Estonia

• Wood 5.5-14 TWh/a• Straw etc non-wooden biomass 2-13 TWh/a• Biogas max 0.4 TWh/a• Wastes 0.1-3 TWh/a• Solar energy 2.2 TWh/a • Wind energy 2.7–4 TWh/a • Water energy 0.4 TWh/a• (Peat) 5.3 TWh/a

Current (end-)use of energy in Estonia

~10 TWh/a

Future of energy sector in Estonia will depend on the EU and global post-Kyoto policies

Carbon accounting in Estonia according to IPCC rules, 2002

Emission / Sequestration CO2, Gg

Net emission of greenhouse gases CO2 equivalent 10,938

Total emission of carbon dioxide 8,726

…of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion 16,971

…of carbon dioxide from industrial processes 319

...total removal of CO2 -8,564

due to changes in forest biomass -5,285

due to changes in other woody biomass stock -2,311

due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil -967.0

The aim of our research

to consider land use related Carbon Flow Analysis (CFA) in • Forestry• Agriculture

– Arable land;– Husbandry;

to compare it with the current carbon flows, which are estimated in Estonian GHG inventory;

to evaluate readiness of statistical system of Estonia for introduction of full CFA based on GIS-mapping as a prerequisite of full carbon trade;

The land area by different types of land use in Estonia,

thousands ha, 2003

CORINE

1:100 000

Basic map

1:10 000

Land Cadastre

1: 2000

ESO

Forest 2,093 2,216 2,267

Wetlands 193.7 321.8 267.5

Agricultural land 1,476 1,263 1,345 829

…Arable land 845 1,020 974 545

…Grassland 632 244 371 267

Differences between the Basic map and forest map from Estonian Centre of Forest Protection

and Silviculture (CFPS)

Forest land on Basic map Forest land on CFPS map

Carbon cycle of arable land

Crops

Grain, Fruit

Stalks Leaves

Roots

Products

Residues

Animals

Humus

subsoil

Human

Industry

Manure

Wasteburning

resp

irat

ion

Export / Import1

1.1.1

1.1.2

2.1

3

3.2 3.3

6

5.1

4

4

6

3.13.1

2

1,517

563

131 66,800

19,600

Seed

1,434

65

9311

9

28

1,537Stock 1

Stock 2

Calculated CO2 flows according to IPCC rules and our data

Emission / Sequestration, Gg CO2

IPCC

CO2

This paper

Total emission of carbon dioxide 8,726 13,477

- of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion and industrial processes

17,290 17,290

- total removal of CO2 -8,564 -3,813

due to changes in terrestrial biomass -7,596 -14,318

…CO2 sequestration by terrestrial biomass -18,197 -15,600

…CO2 emission from terrestrial biomass (felling) 10,601 719

due to emission from crops residues 563

due to CO2 emission and removals from wetlands -396 10,505

due to CO2 emissions and removals from soil -571 ?

A proposal: start CO2 trade also inside the countries and include beside CO2 emission

also CO2 sequestration

This will give a new perspective to the agriculture

Both, forest and arable land could sequester more than 2 tons of carbon

per ha per year

Carbon accounting and economicsForest land

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

1973

1978

1983

1988

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1000

ha

Arable land

400

600

800

1000

1200

1980

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

1000

ha

The change of forest and arable lands in Estonia during the last 30 years

What decisions were behind of these land use changes (annual increase of CO2

sequestration by about 5.4 Gg): economical or (and) ecological?

If carbon has monetary value, every decision about land use change

should be taken balancing economical (ecological services,

including carbon sequestration) and ecological (biodiversity)

accounts

Carbon Flows Accounting and Economical Mechanisms should

function simultaneously • for the control and optimization of the

processes leading to local and global ‘enhancement (of) GHG sinks and reservoirs’ and

• use of renewable resources (biomass, wastes etc.)