Energy Predictions 2016

Analyst Energy Predictions 2016

Christopher Manfredi

Role of the CIO and the IT organization in upstream oil and gas will be to initiate change, foster relationships and change the culture of the organization

- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

Advances in key enabling technologies, such as advanced analytics, the Internet of Things, smart machines and wearable devices, are providing faster, better and cheaper pathways for digitalization. Unfortunately, CIOs will still need to operate under difficult economic conditions


By 2020, the most valuable energy utility in the world will not own any network or generation assets


By 2018, 50% of customers will download utility mobile apps, but only 10% will use them on a regular basis


By 2020, 40% of field assets will be monitored and managed by interactions with virtual 3D models


By 2020, more than 50% of well bore drilling activities on electric rigs will be controlled primarily by algorithm and secondarily by human expertise.


By 2020, 30% of upstream CIOs will adopt scenario planning methodology to guide digital innovation and future-proof their companies against market volatility.


"The oil bust will kill off 19 million barrels per day (MMBD) of future oil production."

- Will Oil Production Fall Off A Cliff?

93.6 MMBD in 2014 to an expected 86.1 MMBD in 2017 and down to 80.4 MMBD in 2020


More Than 90% of Oil and Gas Companies Will Have a Standard Set of Cybersecurity Applications in Operation Within the Next 16 Months

- IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016

25% of All Oil and Gas Companies Will Be Using Cognitive Advanced Analytics Approaches in the Oilfield by 2019 to Improve Performance and Production by 10%


The Top 50% of Oil and Gas Companies Will Double Down on Oilfield Operations Automation to Double the Productivity of Those Operations by 2020



With Growth in Energy Demand Across ASEAN and India, 30% of Oil and Gas Companies Operating in Asia Will Seek Capabilities to Execute by 2019


By 2018, 75% of Oil and Gas Organizations with More Than 10 Operating Wells Will Have Digital Twins of Each Individual Platform

- 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry

In the next three years, operating in the cloud will become the norm across the oil and gas industry. Wireless technology was the first big step, and the cloud is soon to follow as it’s both more efficient and cost effective

http://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html


Over the next year, less mature or smaller organizations will continue to react more extremely and cut spending, even shutting down for a period of time to save the business. The bigger players will guard budgets and reduce or delay planned maintenance, expansion projects and other business transformations in order to maintain critical activities



Industrial organizations will reap the benefits of big data. As affordable sensors have been introduced to the market, more data has become available to industrial organizations.



3D printing will emerge as an innovative alternative for companies in the oil and gas industry in 2016, as they scrutinize their supply chains and engineering practices.


Not just coal plant retirements, but perhaps more nuclear plants shuttering

Electric Utility Trends And Predictions


Growing interest in energy imbalance markets


Growing utility interest in microgrids


Continued merger activity into 2016



Disillusionment with carbon capture as a way to clean up coal

By 2018, 20% of Energy Consumers Will Purchase New Energy-Related Products and Services from Utilities and Their Affiliates, Opening Up New Revenue Streams

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

By 2018, 70% of Utilities Will Have Launched Major Digital Transformation Initiatives That Address at Least One of These Three Areas: Omni-Experience, Operating Model, or Information


In 2016, 70% of Utilities Will Need to Externally Source Talent from the Ecosystem to Make Use of Advanced Analytics, Cognitive Systems, Cloud, and Cybersecurity


In 2019, 50% of Utilities Will Spend 5% or More of Their Capex on Operational Technologies and the Internet of Things (IoT) to Optimize Distributed Energy Resources, Field Services, and Asset Operations


By 2017, Forced by Extreme Weather Events, 75% of Utilities Will Make New IT Investments to Predict Outages, Reduce Their Duration by 5%–10%, and Improve Customer Communications


By 2018, 80% of Generation and/or Transmission Companies Will Require Real-Time Visibility and Rapid Prediction of Demand Fluctuations to Protect Themselves Against Price Volatility



In 2016, 30% of Utilities Will Leverage Digital Twins for Asset Design, Construction, Operation, Maintenance, and Decommissioning

References

- Predicts 2015: Upstream Oil and Gas CIOs Must Prepare for Data-Driven Optimization


- Industry Top Predicts 2016: The Technology Foundation for Digital Business Will Accelerate Industry Fluidity

- IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Oil and Gas 2016 Predictions


- Five Possible Surprises In Energy

- Electric Utility Trends And Predictions

- IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

http://www.gartner.com/document/2909520

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3793456-will-oil-production-fall-off-a-cliff

http://www.gartner.com/document/3179824?ref=solrAll&refval=161120464&qid=ed8b2a8b84b789590014cc232eac4779

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259787


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/5-Possible-Surprises-In-Energy-For-2016.html

http://www.elp.com/articles/2015/12/electric-utility-trends-and-predictions-for-2016.html

mailto:http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp%3FcontainerId=EISC06X?subject=

Date post:	15-Apr-2017
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