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Energy Prospects in the Mediterranean Region Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal Geneva, 31 st May 2013
Energy Prospects in the Mediterranean
Region Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal
Geneva, 31st May 2013
CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD
7% of world population, 500 million people, 90 million more by 2030, nearly all in the South
10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a. average growth to 2030
8% of world’s primary energy demand
Important energy corridor / energy hub
Several challenges calling for innovative energy strategies
Security of supply concerns
Financial crisis and important socio-political changes
Particular vulnerability to climate change and its impacts
ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS AND CHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIES
CommonHigh demographic development and rapid urbanisation around the littoralHigh economic growthAccess to energy almost of all, efforts are still neededEnergy driver to the socio-economic development Increasing climate change concerns and effects
Important disparities S/S and also S/N Availability of conventional energy resourcesFrom exporting to totally importing countriesLarge disparities with NMCs
DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY AND CONVERGENCE TENDENCY
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
80 90 2000 2010
PNM
PSM
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
80 90 2000 2010
PNM
PSM
TPES / capita (toe/cap)
CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)
MEP 2011 - KEY MESSAGES
BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE
Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option:
Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to 2030.
CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up from 2200Mt currently.
Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of additional capacity needed.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix and natural gas will overtake oil.
High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited
Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head. Electricity demand to multiply
by 3 Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to
double.
HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH
THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATH
Under a Proactive Scenario:• Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%)
• Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20% • Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed
4 500
6 500
8 500
10 500
12 500
700800900
1 0001 1001 2001 3001 4001 500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GDP (billion dollars (ppps 2005))
Mtoe
Proactive ScenarioConservative ScenarioGDP -12%
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK, by Scenarios
ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%)
Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an alternative scenario
RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2009 CS 2030 PS 2030
Mtoe
Renewables & WasteHydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Demand Production Demand Production Demand Production
Mtoe
GasOilCoal
2009 Conservative Scenario 2030 Proactive Scenario 2030
MEDITERRANEAN FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Source: OME
GAS ERA AND OIL PEAK
Export capacity would substantially increase under the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.
-100
102030405060708090
100110
Algeria Egypt Libya Israel
bcm GAS EXPORT POTENTIAL
2010 CS 2030 PS 2030
Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD
0
1000
2000
3000
1990 2009 Conservative 2030
Proactive 2030
TWh
SouthNorth
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION
84%70%
54% 58%
42%46%
30%
16%
200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.
32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.
ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED
IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN
16% 14%5%
17%6%
5%
49%
50%
40%
3%
6%
18%
14%
15%
2%
13%
28%
50
100
150
200
250
300
350120 GW 321 GW 289 GWGW
Non-hydro RenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
2009 2030 PS2030 CS
DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNS
Energy intensity is decreasing leading to a decoupling of GDP and energy demand.
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
toe/thousand US$
--
Med PS Energy IntensityMed CS Energy Intensity
--
Med PS Electricity intensityMed CS Electricity intensity
0.08
0.13
0.18
0.23
0.28
KWh/thousandUS$
14
Electricity intensity could continue increasing.
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY
10% of the regional energy consumption can be saved through energy efficiency measures by
2030.
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MtoePotential NegatoesProactive Total Final ConsumptionConservative Total Final Consumption
Conservative Total Final Consumption -10%
15
OUTLOOK FOR CO2 EMISSIONS
In the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions would increase +40% (reaching
3000Mt) in 2030. Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt
less).
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt CO2
Conservative ScenarioProactive ScenarioConservative Scenario
-20%Conservative Scenario
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TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION AND INNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONS
For a successful energy transition targeted by all
Regional cooperation is a must, common vision but adapted strategies, policies and measures are needed
Considering its high impacts, EE should be given first priority. RE are also very much neededAn alternative path: possible but pending on actions and means allowing removal of the existing barriers Demonstration, capacity building, technology transfer, best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes …
All energy sources are neededRDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role in promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth and job creation (very important)Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelated and important for the sustainable development in the region
THE WAY FORWARD
Mediterranean countries have a common interest in preparing together their long-term future
No unique or standard solution, but sustainability implies:
Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side and demand side - energy sobrietyPreservation and reasonable use of fossil fuelsPromotion of RE and in particular solar energy Strengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N to integrate new plantsTechnology transfer and capacity building
A COMMON BOOK OME MEDGRID
www.ome.org
