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Oil and Gas – Canada – July 2016
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGAAugust 11, 2016
Disclaimer• This presentation is on view of the oil and gas sector for Canada
Paul Young - Presenter
Bio• CPA/CGA• 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions• Youtube Channel -
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg
Agenda• Oil Rigs• Oil Pricing• Imports and Exports• Refineries• Proven Reserves• Exports• Capital Expenditures• Pipelines• Government Policies
Oil Rigs
• Source – Baker Hughes
Oil Pricing
Source: BMO
Oil and Gas Production
Canada produced 14.7 million cubic metres (92.8 million barrels) of crude oil and equivalent products in May, down 11.6% compared with the same month in 2015.
Source: Stats Canada
Oil (Exports and Imports)
Oil / Canada
Oil Refinery
US Refinery
Proven Reserves• The U.S. holds more oil reserves than anyone else in the world, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela.• That conclusion comes from a new independent estimate from Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy. Rystad
estimates that the U.S. holds 264 billion barrels of oil, more than half of which is located in shale. That total exceeds the 256 billion barrels found in Russia, and the 212 billion barrels located in Saudi Arabia.
• The findings are surprising, and go against conventional wisdom that Saudi Arabia and Venezuela hold the world’s largest oil reserves. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, for example, pegs Venezuela’s oil reserves at 298 billion barrels, the largest in the world. Rystad Energy says that these are inflated estimates because much of those reserves are not discovered. Instead, Rystad estimates that Venezuela only has about 95 billion barrels, which includes its estimate for undiscovered oil fields.
• Moreover, Rystad argues that there are not uniform ways of measuring oil reserves from country to country. Some countries report proven reserves, using conservative estimates from existing oil fields. Other countries, like Venezuela, report undiscovered reserves. But Rystad applied similar metrics to all countries in its report to make comparisons easier. “An established standard approach for estimating reserves is applied to all fields in all countries, so reserves can be compared apple to apple across the world, both for OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Other public sources of global oil reserves, like the BP Statistical Review, are based on official reporting from national authorities, reporting reserves based on a diverse and opaque set of standards.” The latest assessment, Rystad argues, paints a more accurate portrait.
• The U.S., then, sits atop with its oil reserves. Rystad notes that Texas alone could have 60 billion barrels of oil.
Exports
Capital Expenditures • Canadian oil production will grow by 28 percent to hit 4.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said in its annual report.
• The estimate is lower than CAPP's previous forecast of 5.3 million bpd by 2030, and comes amid a two-year rout in global oil prices that continue to hammer Canadian oil companies, which have slashed billions in capital expenditures.
• Production from Alberta's oil sands, the world's third-largest crude reserves and No. 1 source of U.S. oil imports, will hit 3.7 million bpd by 2030, the industry group said on Thursday.
• CAPP expects conventional oil production in Western Canada, including condensates, to fall to 1.1 million bpd by 2018 from 1.3 million bpd in 2015 and is expected to remain relatively stable to 2030.
Pipelines / Canada
Canada Pipelines
Canada Pipelines
Canada Pipelines
Canada Pipelines
Pipelines• http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/neb-approves-transcanada-
pipeline-north-toronto-1.3708140• http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/america-has-built-the
-equivalent-of-10-keystone-pipelines-since-2010-and-no-one-said-anything
Policies / issues• Carbon Tax/Pricing (Alberta/Ontario)• Shift to clean technology (i.e. electrical cars, wind, solar, biomass)• CPP expansion• Fort McMurray Fire• Lack of capacity (pipelines)