November 20th, 2014 Asian Super Grid and RES Workshop at KPMG Former Executive Director, IEA Professor, GraSPP the University of Tokyo Global Associate for Energy Security and Sustainability of the IEEJ Nobuo TANAKA
Energy Security and Sustainability in N.E. Asia
Asian Growth & Shale Revolution
The engine of energy demand growth moves to Asia with resulting problems.
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8% 5%
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth 2012-2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240 United States 440
Japan
1 710
Europe 1 370
Eurasia
1 050 Middle East
WEO 2013
Shale Revolution and Geopolitics of Oil/Gas
exporters and importers
WEO2013
4
What has happened in the Shale revolution of the US: US aims to further reduce CO2 by 30% towards 2030 in the Power sector.
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Renewables
Coal-fired power output
Coal demand
Gas-fired power output
Gas demand
CO2 emissions
Total primary energy demand
GDP (MER)
From 2006-2011, United States CO2 emissions went down by 7% due to coal-to-gas fuel switching, power generation efficiency gains & increased renewables output
WEO2012
Cop21 in paris : Optimism (US China deal) and Pessimism (2°C ?)
Final Draft (7 June 2013) Technical Summary IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute TS-119 Total pages: 127
TFE.8, Figure 1: Global mean temperature increase since 1861–1880 as a function of cumulative total global CO2
emissions from various lines of evidence. (a) Decadal average results are shown over all CMIP5 EMIC and ESMs for
each RCP respectively, with coloured lines (multi-model average), decadal markers (dots) and with three decades
(2001–2010, 2041–2050 and 2091–2100) highlighted with a star, square and diamond, respectively. The historical time
period up to decade 2001–2010 is taken from the CMIP5 historical runs prolonged by RCP8.5 for 2005–2010 and is
indicated with a black thick line and black symbols. Coloured ranges illustrate the model spread (90% range) over all
CMIP5 ESMs and EMICs and do not represent a formal uncertainty assessment. Ranges are filled as long as data of all
models is available and until peak temperature. They are faded out for illustrative purposes afterward. CMIP5
simulations with 1% yr–1 CO2 increase only are illustrated by the dark grey area (range definition similar to RCPs
above) and the black thin line (multi-model average). The light grey cone represents this report’s assessment of the
transient climate response to emissions (TCRE) from CO2 only. Estimated cumulative historical CO2 emissions from
1850 to 2011 with associated uncertainties are illustrated by the grey bar at the bottom of panel a. (b) Comparison of
historical model results with observations. The magenta line and uncertainty ranges are based on observed emissions
from CDIAC extended by values of the Global Carbon project until 2010 and observed temperature estimates of
HadCRUT4. The uncertainties in the last decade of observations are based on the assessment in this report. The black
thick line is identical to the one in panel a. The thin green line with crosses is as the black line but for ESMs only. The
yellow-brown line and range show these ESM results until 2010, when corrected for HadCRUT4’s incomplete
geographical coverage over time. All values are given relative to the 1861–1880 base period. All time-series are derived
Carbon Budget
515Gt had been
emitted by 2011.
2C scenario needs
to stop at
790Gt.(66%).
790-515=275Gt
budget left.
Annual 2012
=9.7Gt
275/9.7=Only 28
years to go!
IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
ETP 2014 Message Carbon Intensity of supply is stuck
The political will to make meaningful progress at a global scale has yet to be demonstrated
ETP2014
A transformation is needed…
..and we to have the tools to develop a strategy and be proactive.
ETP2014
Three issues to achieve 450ppm: no.1 How to use more Renewables
2DS of ETP 2014: Optimistic or Pessimistic? It needs changing places of Fossil and Renewables
• Generation today:
– Fossil fuels: 68%
– Renewables: 20%
Generation 2DS 2050:
Renewables: 65%
Fossil fuels: 20%
ETP2014
Still on track in Renewables…
Emerging economies step up clean energy ambition, but momentum stalls in OECD countries
Total renewable power generation
ETP2014
Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables
Global renewable energy subsidies by source
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Billion dollars (2012)
Biofuels
Other
Concentrating solar power
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Electricity:
Almost half of the global electricity demand growth is met by renewables, pushed by growing subsidies that reach $223 billion in 2035 from $101 billion in 2012
WEO2013
Power Sector needs Investment in additional flexibility
Grid infrastructure
Dispatchable generation Storage
Demand side integration
Four sources of flexibility …
© OECD/IEA 2014 14 The Power of Transformation, 2014 by IEA
Systems thinking and integration
Today’s energy system paradigm is based on a unidirectional energy delivery philosophy
A sustainable electricity system is a smarter, multidirectional and integrated energy system that requires long-term
planning for services delivery
ETP2014
IEA WEO2014
A decline in nuclear is compensated by a 3-fold increase in electricity from renewables, a continued high reliance on LNG imports & improvements in efficiency
Japan’s Power Mix: Serious problem with nuclear shutdown
16
© OECD/IEA 2014
Japan’s power system: moving to a more diverse & sustainable mix
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Tho
usa
nd
TW
h
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
historical projected
100
200
300
400
500
600
CO2 electricity emissions intensity (right axis)
gCO
2/k
Wh
Japan electricity generation by source and CO2 intensity
With nuclear plants expected to restart & increased use of renewables, Japan’s electricity mix be c omes much more diversified by 2040
Shinzo Abe has the best chance in decades of changing Japan for the
better. He seems poised to take it ( June 28th 2014 )
Snapshot of present penetration potentials
Not only Feed-in-tariffs but Grid integration !
“Harnessing Variable Renewables” by IEA
18
Power grid in Japan
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electric Power System Council of Japan, The International Energy Agency
Tokyo
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku
Kyushu 29GW
Shikoku 12GW
Chubu 40GW
Okinawa 2GW
Hydro Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Power utility company
Generating company
In-house generation
--- 50 hz
60 hz <-------
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Legacy
low grid costs
Legacy
high grid costs
Transformed generation and
8% DSI, low grid costs
0% VRE 45% VRE penetration
Tota
l sys
tem c
ost
(USD
/MW
h)
Grid cost
DSI
Fixed VRE
Emissions
Fuel
Startup
Fixed
non–VRE
• Large shares of VRE can be integrated cost-effectively
• But adding VRE rapidly without adapting the system is bound to increase costs
Japan’s Case Study: Cost-effective integration means transformation of power system
© OECD/IEA 2014 20
+40%
+10-15%
Test System / IMRES Model
The Power of Transformation, 2014 by IEA
To
tal S
yste
m C
ost ( U
SD
MW
h)
India
World
Issue No.2: Coal use will continue. Global coal demand levels off but needs CCS
Global coal demand by key region
Global coal demand growth slows rapidly due to more stringent environmental policies, underlining the importance of high-efficiency plant & CCS to coal’s future
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mtce
1987: European coal demand peak 2005: US coal demand peak
Chinese coal demand plateau
India: 2nd largest coal consumer by 2020
Other
India
China
United States Europe
WEO2014
“Pandora’s Promise”,
a movie directed by
Robert Stone, is a
documentary of some
environmentalists
who changed their
views about Nuclear
Power.
Issue No.3 :
Nuclear power
after the
Fukushima
Eu model as Collective Energy security and sustainability
Energy self-sufficiency* by fuel in 2011
Source: Energy Data Center, IEA.
* Self-sufficiency = domestic production / total primary energy supply
Note: Does not include fuels not in the fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear categories.
11%
14%
15%
21%
6%
46%
12%
23%
28%
16%
9%
17%
32%
17%
10%
1%
10%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
IEA
European Union
Korea
Luxembourg
Belgium
Japan
France
Spain
Slovak Republic
Ireland
Switzerland
Italy
Portugal
Hungary
Turkey
Germany
Finland
Austria
Sweden
Greece
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Poland
India
United States
Netherlands
China
New Zealand Fossil fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
24%
52%
96%
10%
8%
26%
14%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
EU28
IEA28
ASEANFossil fuelsRenewablesNuclear
Collective Energy Security and Sustainability by Diversity, Connectivity and
Nuclear: European Model can be applied to Asia?
WEO 2013 basis
Power Grid Connection in Europe Physical energy flows between European countries, 2008 (GWh)
Source: ENTSO-E
25
Connecting MENA and Europe: " Desertec" as visionary “Energy for Peace"
Source: DESRETEC Foundation 26
ASEAN power grid connection
27
Presentation by Mr. Masayoshi SON 28
“Energy for Peace in Asia” New Vision?
Development of Natural Gas Pipelines in Europe *Europe has begun upgrading its natural gas transmission pipeline in the wake of domestic gas fields development between 1940 and 1960. *Cross border gas pipelines have been built along with gas imports from Russia. *In order to promote the security by diversification of supply sources, on the occasion of the supply dispute between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 was arose, gas import pipelines which won’t depend on Russian Supply has begun building new international pipeline systems.
Source : OG・May 25, 2009 29
30
Natural Gas Import Infrastructure in Europe
IEA Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010
Mid-Term Oil & Gas Market 2010, IEA
Russian Gas Pipelines Will Extend to the East: Recent China Deal
USDOD China Report 2014 32
Figure 2: China’s Import Transit Routes.
China’s Oil and Gas Import Transit Routes
ASEAN is working on Gas Pipeline System.
Chap
ter 15 - O
verview o
f energ
y trends in
South
east Asia
57
5
15
Figure 15.16 The Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP)
0 500
Km
Bontang
Tangguh
West Java
LumutLubuan
Bintulu MLNG
Arun
East JavaMasela
Jurong Isl.
Mariveles
LNG(Baatan)
EAST TIMOR
Kalimantan Senipah
Surabaya
Plaju
Sungiasalak
Dumai
Medan
Krabi
Khanom
Pasuruan
Natuna
Palawan
Ho Chi Minh
Mindanao
Luzon
Dili
Sumatra
Java
BaliLombok
Sumbawa Flores
Sulawesi Seram
Papua
Map Ta Phut
M A L A Y S I A
SINGAPORE
CAMBODIA
LAOS
MYANMAR
Phnom Penh
Vientiane
Yangon
Bandar SeriBegawan
Manila
Kuala Lumpur
I N D O N E S I A
Jakarta
Hanoi
CHINAINDIA
BangkokVIETNAM
PHILIPPINES
T H A I L A N D
BRUNEI
Existing gas pipeline
Planned LNG regasification terminal
Planned LNG liquifaction plant
Planned or under construction gas pipeline
Gas production area
LNG liquifaction plant
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Source: ASCOPE Secretariat
© OECD/IEA, 2009
33
34
Blue Print for North East Asia Gas & Pipeline Infrastructure
THE ENERGY CHARTER TREATY
A READER’S GUIDE
Energy Charter Secretariat
Role of the Energy Charter Treaty:
Ukraine Gas Disruption could have been avoided.