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21/10/2015
The Operational Railway – Severe Weather Events and Climate Change
Dr Brian D Haddock
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Contents
Current extreme weather events and associated risksSeasonal variation and associated risksClimate Change – Frequency and Intensity of Events Mitigating seasonal variation and extreme weather eventsProcesses for managing and mitigating weather risksFuture Risks UKCP09 modelsTomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation
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Train borne - mitigation
• MPV and RHTT trains (main mitigation) which water jet ground-in leaf debris off the rails at 1,500 bar pressure. These are deployed across the country, already up and running
Autumn Management:
PDG > Phil Hufton1 May 2023 9
Seasonal Planning and Mitigation – Autumn and Winter
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Autumnal Weather Conditions• Despite all the prep, performance will depend on the weather. Wet,
windy/stormy days have a very high impact• New weather forecasting and EWATs in place to anticipate and
manage• severity of the season depends on how many of those we get
• So far the weather has been benign but the forecast is generally for an ‘active’ autumn
• Impact of storms is significant for performance as in autumn 2013
Autumn Management:
PDG > Phil Hufton1 May 2023 10
07/1
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2013 26
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Minute delay – storm events
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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton
1 May 2023 11
• Winter – Industry Ready• Good cross industry working with NTF and ATOC on winter preparedness• ‘Off the shelf’ winter timetables available if heavy snow is forecast -
developed between routes and TOCs• A well rehearsed and developed Extreme Weather Process with forecast
warning system• TOC preparation of their own fleet for heavy snow conditions
Severe Weather Warning Page
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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton
1 May 2023 12
• Seasonal fleet equipped and ready to run to de-ice conductor rails and plough snow
• Delivery Units prepared - equipment checks undertaken on infrastructure
• Station, depots and walk ways prepared for gritting and ice clearance
• Route proving locomotives
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Affects of changing weather patterns – Intensity & Frequency – Dawlish Sea Wall (Devon) 4th Feb 2014 – 40 m
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Measures introduced to mitigate the causes of disruption…
Snow and Ice Treatment Trains and Points Enhancement
Targeted tree clearance for resilience in high
winds
Improved drainage management
Coastal defence review
Earthworks remote monitoring
01/05/23
/23-Sep-14 19
Demountable Flood Defences
Mitigate the consequences of disruption…
Flood Hungary 2014 Large-scale pumps
High Marnham 2013
01/05/23
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/23-Sep-14 20
Coastal Alerts Identify Vulnerable Earthworks
Improving weather forecasting accuracy
Flood Alerts at high risk sites
Mitigate the consequences of disruption…introduced to mitigate the consequences of disruption…
01/05/23
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Climate Change Predictions: Heat
01/05/23
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
(°C
) 2080s
2070s
2060s
2050s
2040s
2030s
2020s
Kent
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Climate Change Predictions: (Winter) Rain
01/05/23
-40
-30
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-10
0
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecDa
ily P
reci
pita
tion
Chan
ge (%
)
2080s
2070s
2060s
2050s
2040s
2030s
2020s
Kent
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The UK Climate Change Projections 2009 anticipates that, by 2080 under the medium emission scenarios, the UK climate will change as follows:
•Mean daily maximum temperatures (2080s relative to 1961-1990, medium emissions) are projected to increase across the UK. Increases in the summer average are up to 5.4ºC (2.2 to 9.5ºC) in parts of southern England
•Variations of summer and winter precipitations of between -40% and +33% respectively
Phase 1 – Examples of future climate change
• Sea level rise of between 12 and 76cm by 2095 (compared with a 1980-99 baseline)
• Changes in storm surge. For example in the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, an increase in 50-yr surge return level of around 0.8mm per year
• Increase in the number of lightning days are projected for all four seasons across the whole of the UK
TRaCCA- Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation
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What are we doing about the climate scenarios?T1009 = Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adaptation Programme
A RSSB funded research study sponsored by the Technical Strategy Leadership Group (TSLG)
T1009 explores the need to increase the resilience of the GB railway in response to anticipated changes in key climate variables
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Future climate change will impact the GB railway – as a whole system and its sub-systems
The rail industry has commissioned T1009 to improve industry understanding of these impacts and provide support tools for adaptation / resilience decisions
A system-wide approach is important when considering targeted and prioritised investments
T1009 is considering the whole GB railway system and its global supply chains
Even a small change in average temperatures will have a significant impact on the system
Some lessons – many – are relevant for the infrastructure ‘sector’ more widely
Why is this important?
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1. What is the projected climatic change in the UK over the next 50 years?
2. What are the likely impacts of climate change and extreme weather on the railway?
3. What actions can be taken by GB rail industry in response to these potential impacts?
4. What are the proposed future actions, including 'quick wins' which can be implemented over the next few years?
5. What are the requirements for additional decision support frameworks, processes, and tools, to permit cost-effective action to be taken?
Key questions that T1009 has been asked to clarify
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There is a wide range of climate change and extreme weather related impacts that could potentially affect the GB railway system, its subsystems, and related assets.
Weather impact is currently estimated to cost the industry 1.6 million delay minutes a year, or about £50 million a year (source: Network Rail Analysis Report, September 2014).
Forecasting the next few days’ weather will be an increasing challenge.
Phase 1 - Impacts of Climate Change
Nature of climate change Possible impacts
High temperatures Rail buckling, excessive overhead line sag, passenger/worker discomfort
Low temperatures Damage, disruption, slips, trips and falls, reduced brake effectiveness from snow and ice falls
High precipitation events Earthworks failure and landslides, slips, trips and falls, bridge scour, floods
High sea levels and storm surge
Coastal erosion, damage to sea walls, earthwork failure)
High winds Damage to equipment and lineside fires
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Phase 2 Learning points Task 4 – The railway: a ‘System of Systems’, lead UCL/ Beckford Consulting
Illustrated schematically across seven areas
Includes ‘Supply Chain’ and ‘Governance’
Organisationally nested
Lower levels given the remit to act from higher levels
Different timescales can apply
Need ‘feedback’ between levels for optimal management
Informative and timely as a systems approach is advocated by UK Regulators’ Network among others
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Impacts and potential resilience measures
Temperature
Precipitation
Weather Events
Sea Level Rise
Extreme High
Rail buckling
Passenger Discomfort
Extreme Low
Ice build-on rolling stock
Freeze thaw at cuttings
Rapid Changes
Lineside electronic equipment affecting power, signalling,
telecomms
• Maintain tracks to more resistant specifications
• Clutter-free design for underside of vehicles
• De-icing measures used prior to entry into service
• Rock removal activity on a cyclic basis & Netting of rock cuttingsExtreme High
Flooding
Scour of Bridge Piers
Landslips
Extreme Winds
Catenary failure
Tree Fall Coastal Flooding
eg: Dawlish BUT DON”T FORGET WALES etc!!
Extreme Drought
Dessication of clay formations
Increased Humidity
Leaf contamination
Loss of braking mu
Loss of track circuits
Lightning
Interference with electronics
EMC
• Improve drainage
• Improve scour protection
• Vegetation management
• Protect vulnerable slopes
• Rebuild embankments
• Institute warning systems
• Vegetation management
• Adapt Rolling Stock
• Catenary maintenance
• Robust control systems
• Redundant power systems
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T1009 is delivering useful outputs for the rail industry. Organisations which have engaged the most are likely to benefit the most
System of systems approach confirms the importance of interdependencies and interfaces, some of which lie with organisations outside of the rail industry
Consensus from other countries and asset managers is that GB railway is an exemplar and is a leading example of good practice
A number of analogue countries have been identified:France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark
There are no ‘silver bullets’ that other countries have!
Remaining challenge is how to make the information and research accessible to all
Summary