Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid...Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy...

Prepared For:

March 29, 2018

Director, Energy Storage

[email protected]

Ravi Manghani

Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

1Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

GTM, MAKE & Wood Mackenzie form the

premier market intelligence provider on the

decarbonization and decentralization of energy

Power MarketFundamentals

Regional Market Dynamics

Technology Value Chain Evolutions

We guide companies leading

the electricity transformation

1 POWER & RENEWABLES RESEARCH

Long-term Supply &

Demand Outlooks

20-year Wholesale &

Retail Price Outlooks

Thermal & Renewable

Databases and Demand

Outlooks

Policy and Regulation

Analysis

Technology Cost and

Performance Outlooks

Wind, Solar, Storage, and Grid

Edge Competitive Landscapes


Contents

1. U.S. Energy Storage Deployment Trends 4

2. Energy Storage Technology and Cost Trends 8

3. Federal and State Policy Barriers Coming Down 12


Tomorrow’s Decarbonized and Decentralized Power Market

A flatter system with outside market responses and actors at every node reshaping power market planning and operations

Dispatchable Generation

Transmission

Distribution End Customers

Intermittent Generation

Demand Side Management

EnergyStorage

Advanced Metering Infrastructure

Distributed Generation

Electric Vehicles

Connected Devices

The Power Market of the Past

A top-down, flow from supply to demand

Dispatchable Generation

Transmission

Distribution

End Customers

Tomorrow’s Decarbonized and Decentralized Power Market

Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid

U.S. Energy Storage Deployment Trends1.


-

50

100

150

200

250

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Dep

loym

ents

(M

Wh

)

Residential Non-Residential Front-of-the-Meter

U.S. Q4 2017 Deployments in Megawatt-Hours Down 57% From Previous Year

U.S. Quarterly Energy Storage Deployments by Segment (MWh)

Source: GTM Research/ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor

Record breaking quarters: Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 – Aliso Canyon Systems come on-line


California

34%

Hawaii 24%

Arizona 5%

All Others

37%

California

40%

Texas29%

Hawaii6%

All Others

25%

Where Is Energy Storage Deployed So Far? (Megawatt-Hours)

Residential Non-Residential Utility

California Accounts for 48% Through 4Q 2017

Source: GTM Research/ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor

California

86%

New York 4%

Hawaii 2% All

Others 8%


* “Other” includes flywheel and unidentified energy storage technologies.

Quarterly Energy Storage Deployment Share by Technology (MW %)

Lithium-Ion Technology Continues the Trend of More Than 94% Share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17En

ergy

Sto

rage

Dep

loym

ents

by

Tech

no

logy

(M

W)

Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flow - Vanadium Flow - Zinc Other

Source: GTM Research / ESA U.S. Energy Storage Monitor


Energy Storage Technology and Cost Trends

2.


Commercialized Storage Technologies – Lithium-Ion Off to the Races

Commercialized Energy Storage Technologies: Cost ($/kWh) Versus Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Cycle life ranges from 300-15,000 depending on depth of discharge, mature technology with over 600 MW of utility-scale systems

deployed, suited for power and energy applications from 12-minutes to 4-hour

discharge on both sides of the meter

Oldest battery technology with cycle life of 1,000 at high depth of discharge; particularly suited to the off-grid

market and 4-hour discharge duration or longer

Cycle life of 2,500 to 4,500, suited for peak shaving; NaS suited for 6-hour while Na-Ni

suited for 2- to 6-hour discharge applications

Cycle life of more than 100,000; mature in power

quality and UPS applications and frequency regulation, suited for <30-minutes duration projects

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750

Tech

no

logy

Co

st (

$/k

Wh

)

Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Lithium Ion Lead Acid Sodium Chemistries Flywheel



Early Stage Storage Technologies – No Clear Winner, Flow Batteries Have Better Prospects

Demonstration/Pilot Phase Energy Storage Technologies: Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Cycle life varies from 10,000 - 12,000, cost spreads from $425-$750/kWh, few projects

deployed, VRB batteries furthest along while Zn-Br batteries still nascent, suited for power and

energy-centric applications of 4- to 12-hour discharge at rated power

Cycle life of 3,000, suited to applications needing 4- to 20-hour discharge like microgrids

and off-grid applications

Cycle life of 6,000, pricing ranges from $160-$200/kWh, demonstration phase, suited for

applications of 4 hour discharge like peak load shaving and power centric applications

Cycle life still under test, suited for 2-to 12-hour discharge applications like

micogrids and off-grid projects

High power, low energy, cycle life of 1 million,

suited for 2-minutes or less power applications like frequency regulations, voltage stabilization,

renewables smoothing and battery support

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5

Cumulative U.S. Installed Capacity (MW)

Flow Aqueous Zinc-hybrid Liquid metal batteries Ultracapacitor

For technologies still in early commercial/demonstration phase, costs are illustrative



Annual Declines in Battery Price and Balance-of-System Costs Will Drop Below 10% After 2020

-22% -22%

-24% -24%

-14% -14% -10% -9% -8% -8%-10%

-11%

-32%

-27%

-16%

-8% -8%-7% -6%

-5%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

Year

-Ove

r-Ye

ar D

eclin

e (%

)

Battery Price BOS Cost decline

Phase 1: Battery price reductions were the primary driver for system price declines

Phase 2: Extreme reductions in BOS costs drove down system prices by more than 25%

Phase 3: Continued reductions in battery prices and BOS costs are driven by production ramp-up, growing competition and improvements in system design and engineering

Phase 4: As the storage market matures, both battery prices and BOS costs will continue to decline but the rate will be lower post-2020, with improvements arising from experience.

Source: GTM Research

Year-Over-Year Decline in Lithium-Ion Battery Price and BOS Cost, 2013 – 2022E (%)


Federal and State Policy Barriers Coming Down

3.


On February 15th FERC released draft final rules adopting participation and eligibility requirements for energy storage in ISOs and RTOs. The participation model for electric storage resources must:

Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources in an RTO and ISO market is eligible to provide all capacity, energy, and ancillary services that it is technically capable of providing

Ensure that a resource using the participation model for electric storage resources can be dispatched and can set the wholesale market clearing price as both a wholesale seller and wholesale buyerconsistent with rules that govern the conditions under which a resource can set the wholesale price.

Account for the physical and operational characteristics of electric storage resources through bidding parameters or other means.

Establish a minimum size requirement for participation in the RTO and ISO markets that does not exceed 100 kW. Also requires that the sale of electric energy from the RTO or ISO market to an electric storage resource that the resource then resells back to those markets must be at the wholesale locational marginal price.

Biggest Shot in the Arm: FERC Rules Energy Storage Must be Eligible to Participate in Wholesale Markets

FERC Order 841



AZ

CO

FL

NC

VAWV

WA

SC

IN

KY

MA

CA

OR

NM

MW in Resource Plan

Specific Storage

Capacity

“As Much As…”

TBD

Estimated Total Opportunity: 5.1 GW, 16.8 GWh


There are several utility resource

proceedings all over the country that

explicitly include storage in their

resource plans. There’s about 5.1 GW

of opportunity in existing utility IRPs.

These IRPs offer a view of storage as a

flexible resource on the grid, and

complementary, not necessarily a

direct threat to CT plants.

The Momentum Builds: Energy Storage in Integrated Resource PlansStorage Modeled, Eligible or Mandated in Utility IRPs (MW)


Notable State Policies Roundup – Levelling the Playing Field

Colorado

• SB18-009 allows customers to install BTM storage

Maryland

• First state with BTM energy storage tax credit

Arizona

• Clean peak standard proposal• 3 GW energy storage goal proposal

California

• 1,385 MW storage mandate• SGIP incentive• ESDER initiative to integrate storage on CAISO• Local capacity procurements, storage RFOs

for peaker replacement

Texas

• Texas PUC initiated rulemaking docket to address energy storage on distribution grid

Washington

• WA UTC energy storage policy statement

Oregon

• Minimum 5 MWh per utility storage mandate

• 200 MWh energy storage target• $20 million ACES program• SMART energy storage adder

Massachusetts

Hawaii

• First state with innovative solar-plus-storage projects• Customer solar self-supply tariff

• Gov. Cuomo - 1,500 MW goal• NY REV demo projects• Con Edison demand management programs

New York

Interested in other GTM Research products and services? Please visit www.gtmresearch.com or contact [email protected]

Thank You!

Ravi Manghani

[email protected]

March 29, 2018

Date post:	03-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Energy Storage - Evolution and Revolution on the Electric Grid...Ravi Manghani, GTM Research: Energy...

Documents