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Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030:
Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points
«Energetika XXI: economy, policy, ecology»
«Energy security provision within world economic crisis»
October, 15-16, 2009
Saint Petersburg
Alexey GromovPhD in Economic Geography
Deputy General DirectorInstitute for Energy Strategy
Energy Strategy: resistant model of development
Indexes
2008 г.Ratio, %
data report 2008/ ES-2020 forecastES-
2020Data
report
GDP Growth, % 2000 148,4 165,2 111,3
World oil price, USD per barrel 24,0 94,4 393,3
World gas price, USD per bln cubic metres 120,0 353,7 294,8
Production of primary energy resources, mln tce 1747,0 1803,0 103,2
Consumption of primary energy resources, mln tce 1043,0 1002,0 96,0
Electricity consumption, bln KWth 980,0 1019,7 104,0
Export of primary energy resources, mln tce
805,0 873,0 108,4
2
Results of monitoring ES-2020
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development
Program of long-term
development of the fuel and
energy complex of the
Russian Far East
Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for
the year 2020
Strategy of development of
the power generation in
the Russian Far East
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years
2009-2030
Eastern Gas
Program
General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year
2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030
Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
ES-2030
State program of energy saving
Investment programs of energy companies
3
Aim and Goals of the ES-2030
Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing of energy resources
Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure
Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy and energy sector
Stable institutional environment in the energy sector
Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the global energy system
Aim
Goals
Innovative and efficient energy development
Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic crisis
4
Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy Complex’s Role in the Russian economy
30% 18%
2005 2030
Energy sector in GDP
Energy sector’s export in GDP
Energy resources in export
19% 5%
64%34%
Investment in energy sector in total investment27% 11%
5
Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources
6
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
basic variant innovative variant
Electricity consumption
bln. kilowatt-hour
1073
1315
1520
1065
1245
1415
1590
year
s
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
basic variant innovative variant
Electricity production
bln. kilowatt-hour
1094
1350
1640
1090
1280
1460
year
s
Basic Forecasted Characteristics of the ES-2030(Electricity Production and Consumption)
7
Key priorities in the Russian energy sector
8
Energy security
First stage Second stage Third stage
Growth of energy consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 10% no less than 20% no less than 40%
Growth of electricity consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 13% no less than 43% no less than 85%
Growth of petrol consumption per capita, % by the level of 2005
no less than 23% no less than 41% no less than 70%
Decrease of the current level of equipment’s run-out (in 2005 – 60%):
by 10% by 10% by 5%
Elimination of deficit and maintenance of the sufficient reserve of the power and heat generating capacities
Maintenance of power generating reserves at the level of 17% of the total installed capacity of the United Energy Systems (UES) of Russia. Maintenance of normative heat generating reserves of heat stations and boiler-houses.
Strategic indicators
9
Energy efficiency of the economy
First stage Second stage Third stage
Specific energy intensity of GDP, % of the 2005 level
no more than 80% no more than 62% no more than 46%
Formation of additional energy potential for economic development:
100 mln. t c.e./y 200 mln. t c.e./y 300 mln. t c.e./y
Development of high-technological energy services with volume of:
200 bln. RUR/y 300 bln. RUR/y 400 bln. RUR/y
Mean decrease in specific losses and auxiliaries in FEC’s enterprises, % by the level of previous year
no less than 1% no less than 1% no less than 0,5%
Decrease in specific fuel rate for heat generation of heat stations and boiler houses,% by the level of 2005
no less than 2% no less than 6% no less than 10%
10
Strategic indicators
Efficient relationship between government and energy business
Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in the sphere of natural monopolies
Completion of liberalization processes in power generation
Development of the insurance system of long-term investments’ risks
Perfection of license policy, elimination of inadequate administrative barriers
Stimulation of modernization and innovative development of FEC
Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuff’s skills in FEC
Optimization of tax burden
Rationalization of amortization policyFormation of united leasing companies
Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC
First stage Second stage Third stage
Formation of stable institutional and legal environment in FEC
Financial stability of FEC and national economy
11
Economic efficiency of the energy sectorStrategic aim:
Principles and mechanisms of realization
Creation of favorable economic environment
System of prospective regulations, standards and norms
Support of strategic initiatives
Strategic indicators of economic (budget) efficiency of FEC
First stage Second stage Third stage
Decrease in emission of pollutants into atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, % by the level of 2005:
no less than 15% no less than 30% no less than 50%
Volume of greenhouse gases emission, % of 1990 level:
no more than 83% no more than 92% no more than 105%
Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 – 75%):
95% 95% 95%
92
100
7369 70
82
76
105
89
80
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1995 2000 2005 1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
% b
y t
he
le
ve
l o
f 1
99
0
Forecasted dynamics of СО2-emissions
12
Ecological security of the energy sector
Strategic indicators
Stages of ES-2030
13
Basic Hypotheses of the Social and Economic Development of Russia for the Year 2030
Realization of the competitive advantages of the Russian economy in traditional and new science-intensive industries
Predicted development of the Russian economy
Hypothesis I Hypothesis II
By the end of the first stage of ES-2030 (post-crisis period) the economy will be
characterized by the rates of social and economic development, declared in the Concept of long-term development
By the end of the second stage of the ES-2030 the
level of social and economic development, declared in the Concept of long-term development, will be achieved
Specification of the goals and priorities of the development are carried out in the frames of annually conducted Monitoring of the ES-2030
Stages of the ES-2030realization
First stage (till 2013-2015)
Second stage
(till 2020-2022)
Third stage
(till 2030)
Concept
14
Characteristics of the Stages of ES-2030
First stage (till 2013-2015)
Main goals: elimination of the crisis’ consequences and invigoration of the national economy modernization of the energy sector
External conditions:possible post-crisis renaissance of the global economyvolatility of the global financial, stock and energy markets
Main goals: increase in energy efficiency of the national economy and energy sectorrealization of energy projects in the Eastern Siberia, Far East, Yamal and Arctic offshoreinnovative renovation of the energy sector
External conditions:stabilization of the global energy marketsdecrease in dependence of budget revenues and national economy from the energy sector
Main goals: high-performance use of traditional energy resources gradual shift to the energy of the future
External conditions:substantial decrease of the energy sector’s role in the national economy
Second stage (till 2020-2022)
Third stage (till 2030)
15
Key initiativesin the Russian energy sector
16
Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore
Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector
17
OIL NATURAL GASBaltic Pipeline System - 2 – 50 mln. т/y North Stream – 55 bln. cub. m/y
South Stream – 30 bln. cub. m/yEastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean – 80 mln. т/y
Energy infrastructure: development and diversification
18
Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia
Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to satisfy the domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of export
19
Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources of New Regions
(including Arctic offshore)
585
317-323
46
131-137
3
30-32
185-220
67-68
45-65
4
85-87
3
885-940
641
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2030
bln
. cu
b. m
Nadyum-Pur-Taz Region European part of Russia
Bolshekhetskaya valley Yamal
Ob-Taz estuary Eastern Siberia
Far East Others
Shift in oil extraction in Russia
334,3
52,2
49,1
301-303
34-3625-29
42-43
24,521-22
5,3 69-75
0,2
4,4 32-33
530-535
470,1
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
2005 2030m
ln. t
Far EastEastern SiberiaNorthern Cacauses and Caspian regionNorth and North-West of RussiaUrals regionVolga regionWestern Siberia
new
re
gio
ns
new
re
gio
ns
20
Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia
Non-fuel energy
Priority development:
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
POWER GENERATION
Putting into operation installed capacity of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of renewable energy in power generation from 0,5 to 4,5%
18
61
5
87
25
9
0,50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage
mln
. kilo
wat
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
bln
. ki
low
att-
ho
ur
Installed capacity, mln. Kilowatt
Power generation on the basis of renewable energyresources, bln. kilowatt-hour
Forecasted development of renewable power generation
21
Energy Saving
Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln. kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal
and 45 mln t of oil and oil products1
2
3
4
5
Expected results of energy saving and increase in energy efficiency in Russia
Improvement in competitiveness of national economy under conditions of growing tariffs for
energy resources
Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD
Decrease in governmental expanses: 3-5 bln. USD
Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/yImprovement in ecological situation in the country
Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by:
20% in heat supply
30% in power generation
40% in industry and transportation
50% in living apartments
Potential of energy saving in Russia is estimated at level
of 45% of the current consumption of energy
resources
22
State Energy Policy in Russia
Rational market environment
Advanced standards and regulations
Subsoil resources
management
Development of home energy
markets
Formation of rational energy balance
Social policy in the energy
sector
Regional energy policy
External energy policy
Scientific, technical and innovative policy
Strategic initiatives
Energ
y se
curit
y
Energ
y ef
ficie
ncy
of e
cono
my
Econo
mic
effi
cien
cy o
f FEC
Ecolo
gica
l sec
urity
of F
EC
Management of state property
23
Expected results of ES-2030
1) Guaranteed energy security of Russia and its regions
2) Competent participation of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of diversification of export
3) Gradual decrease in dependency of national economy from oil and gas sector and respective decline of FEC’s share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18%
4) Decrease in specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times
5) Optimization of fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in energy consumption from 52 to 46-47% and increase in the share of non-fuel energetics from 11 to 13-14%
6) Exploration and exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions
7) Development of the social partnership between energy companies and society
8) Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and investment prosperity of energy companies
9) Innovative renovation of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of new energy technologies
10) Ecological security and efficiency of FEC, limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to 100-105% by the level of 1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving
24
Thank you for your attention!
25
