Energy Sustainability and
Climate Change
(Contribution to CCTC2013 Plenary: Path Ahead)
Marc A. Rosen
Past-President, Engineering Institute of Canada
Professor, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science University of Ontario Institute of Technology
Oshawa, Ontario, Canada
Energy Sustainability
Provision of energy services in a manner that is
• Sufficient for needs
• Affordable
• Environmentally benign
• Acceptable
• And so on
Energy Sustainability
Requirements
1. Sustainable energy sources
2. Appropriate energy carriers
3. Increased efficiency
System efficiency Exergy efficiency
Energy Sustainability
Requirements
1. Sustainable energy sources
2. Appropriate energy carriers
3. Increased efficiency
4. Reduced environmental impact
Energy Sustainability
Requirements
1. Sustainable energy sources
2. Appropriate energy carriers
3. Increased efficiency
4. Reduced environmental impact
5. Satisfy other facets of sustainability
Key Output
Published 2012
5 year project
1900 pages
300 authors
25 teams
200 reviewers
Assesses present
Assesses future (40 pathways)
Global to local approaches
GEA Knowledge Clusters
1. Major global issues and energy
• Challenges
2. Energy resources and technological options
• Components of future energy systems
3. Describing possible sustainable futures
• Combine components for sustainable systems
4. Realizing energy for sustainable development
• Policies to realize sustainable systems
Example Knowledge Module:
Energy End-Use – Industry Analysis of industrial
energy use trends
Consumption & opportunities: cross-cutting end uses
Consumption & opportunities: key sectors
Thermodynamic limits
Realizing opportunities: policies & programs
18
External Funding Partners
●Austrian Development Agency (ADA)
●Climate Works Foundation
●Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GmbH
● First Solar Inc.
●Global Environment Facility (GEF)
through UNIDO
● Italian Ministry for the Environment
and Territory
●Petrobras
●Research Council of Norway
●Swedish Research Council for
Environment, Agricultural Sciences
and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)
●Swedish Research Council for
Environment, Agricultural Sciences
and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and
Swedish Energy Agency
●United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP)
●United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)
●United Nations Foundation (UNF)
●United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO)
●US Environmental Protection Agency
(US EPA)
●US Department of Energy (DOE)
through Global Environment and
Technology Foundation
●World Bank/ESMAP
●World Energy Council (WEC)
GEA Council ● Ged Davis – GEA Co-President
● José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo
● Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.
● Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
● Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)
● Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory
● Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)
● Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China
● Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)
● Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria
● Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
● Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency
● Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
● Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
● Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras
● Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)
● Jamal Saghir, World Bank
● John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU)
● Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA)
● Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
● Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
● Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament
● Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia
● Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament
● Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation
● Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization
● Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China
GEA Executive Committee ● Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden
● Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India
● Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria
● Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia
● Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
● Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)
● He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
● Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
● Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)
● Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)
● Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)
● Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)
● Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)
● Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)
● Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)
● Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)
● Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)
● Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
● Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)
● Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)
● Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)
● Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
● Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)
● Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems)
● Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)
● Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)
● Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
● Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)
● Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)
● Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)
● Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)
● Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)
● Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)
Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2) Jean Acquatella
Adeola Adenikinju
Lawrence Agbemabiese
Olivia Agbenyega
Astrid Agostini
Francisco Aguayo
Roberto F. Aguilera
Gilbert Ahamer
John Ahearne
Hugo Altomonte
Markus Amann
Laura Diaz Anadon
Per Dannemand Andersen
Cristina L. Archer
Doug Arent
Robert Ayres
Christian Azar
Ines Azevedo
Xuemei Bai
Kalpana Balakrishnan
Rangan Banerjee
Douglas F. Barnes
Jennie Barron
Igor Bashmakov
Timothy Baynes
Morgan Bazilian
Kamel Bennaceur
Sally M. Benson
Ruggero Bertani
S.C. Bhattacharya
Dan Bilello
Gunilla Björklund
Brenda Boardman
Daniel H. Bouille
Grant Boyle
Sylvia Breukers
Abeeku Brew-Hammond
Ian Bryden
Thomas Buettner
Stan Bull
Matthew Bunn
Colin Butler
Zoë Chafe
Aleh Cherp
Helena Chum
Leon Clarke
Suani T. Coelho
Yu Cong
Peter Cook
Robert Corell
Felix Creutzig
Daniel Curtis
Touria Dafrallah
Ogunlade Davidson
John Davison
Felix Dayo
Heleen de Coninck
Luiz Alberto de Melo Brettas
Adilson de Oliveira
Gabriel de Scheemaker
Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr.
Frank Dentener
Shobhakar Dhakal
Anatoli Diakov
Ming DING
Michael Doherty
Anne-Maree Dowd
Carolina Dubeux
Maurice B. Dusseault
Lisa Emberson
Karl-Heinz Erb
Nick Eyre
Andre Faaij
Ian Fairlie
Karim Farhat
Sara Feresu
Maria Josefina Figueroa
Carolyn Fischer
Brian Fisher
David J. Fisk
Theo H. Fleisch
Tira Foran
Roger Fouquet
Junichi Fujino
Sabine Fuss
Luc Gagnon
Kelly Gallagher
Hu Gao
Ibrahim Abdel Gelil
Dolf Gielen
Asmerom Gilau
Stephen Gitonga
Robert Goldston
Andreas Goldthau
Peter Graham
Arnulf Grubler
Helmut Haberl
Richard Haeuber
Keisuke Hanaki
Maureen Hand
Danny Harvey
Marianne Haug
Kebin HE
Marko Hekkert
Fancisco Hernandez
Sergio Tirado Herrero
Edgar Hertwich
Conrado Heruela
Kevin Hicks
Frank von Hippel
Monique Hoogwijk
Richard Hosier
Larry Hughes
Alison Hughes
Jane Hupe
Toshiaki Ichinose
Morna Isaac
Mark Jaccard
Staffan Jacobsson
Jill Jäger
Martin Jakob
Kathryn Janda
Gilberto Jannuzzi
Jaap Jansen
Jessica Jewell
Yi Jiang
Kejun Jiang
Eberhard Jochem
Thomas B. Johansson
Francis X. Johnson
Arthur Johnson
Ian Johnson
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro
Mikiko Kainuma
Daniel Kammen
Shinji Kaneko
Stephen Karekezi
Anders Karlqvist
Tadahiro Katsuta
James E. Keirstead
Francis Kemausuor
René Kemp
Ruud Kempener
John Kimani
Osamu Kimura
Patrick Kinney
Bernadette Kiss
Tord Kjellstrom
Zbigniew Klimont
Shigeki Kobayashi
Peter Kolp
Christian Kornevall
Reza Kowsari
Diana Kraft
Fridolin Krausmann
Wolfram Krewitt†
Volker Krey
Sivanappan Kumar
Rattan Lal
Hans Larsen
Eric Larson
Rik Leemans
Sylvie Lemmet
Philippe Lempp
Manfred Lenzen
Zheng LI
Vladimir Likhachev
Guangjian LIU
Jeff Logan
Oswaldo Lucon
John Lund
Nora Lustig
Jordan Macknick
Mili Majumdar
François Maréchal
Omar Masera
Denise L. Mauzerall
Peter McCabe
David McCollum
Charles McCombie
Susan McDade
Aimee T. McKane
Thomas McKone
James E. McMahon
Anthony McMichael
Michael McNeil
Mark Mehos
Tim Merrigan
Jacqui Meyers
Alan Miller
Sevastianos Mirasgedis
Catherine Mitchell
Vijay Modi
Joachim Monkelbaan
José Roberto Moreira
Gragner Morgan
Siwa Msangi
Adrian Muller
Mohan Munasinghe
Luis Mundaca
Shuzo Murakami
Iyngararasan Mylvakanam
Lynn Mytelka
Yu Nagai
Koji Nagano
Hitomi Nakanishi
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Lena Neij
Gregory Nemet
George L. Nicolaides
Hans Nilsson
Aleksandra Novikova
Victoria Novikova
Anastasia O’Rourke
Virginia Sonntag O'Brien
Michael Ohadi
Marina Olshanskaya
Shonali Pachauri
Saptarshi Pal
Shamik Pal
Debajit Palit
Riddhi Panse
Mahesh Patankar
Anand Patwardhan
Ksenia Petrichenko
Hector Pistonesi
Christoph Plutzar
Gisela Prasad
Ndola Prata
Lynn Price
Pallav Purohit
Krishnan S. Rajan
M.V. Ramana
Andrea Ramirez
Saumya Ranjan
Anand Rao
Shilpa Rao
Amitav Rath
Rob Raven
Xiangkun Ren
Keywan Riahi
Kamal Rijal
Johan Rockström
Hans-Holger Rogner
Mathis L. Rogner
Marc A. Rosen
Carolina Rossini
Joyashree Roy
Lau Saili
Constantine Samaras
Gerd Sammer
Jayant Sathaye
David Satterthwaite
Deger Saygin
Jules Schers
Christoph Schilling
Jürgen Schmid
Mycle Schneider
Sabine Schnittger
Robert N. Schock
Niels B. Schulz
Seongwon Seo
Ali Shafiei
Nilay Shah
Ram M. Shrestha
Priyadarshi R. Shukla
Dale Simbeck
Ralph Sims
Wim Sinke
Kirk R. Smith
Aaron Smith
Adrian Smith
Ricardo Soares de Oliveira
Youba Sokona
Weiwei Song
Benjamin Sovacool
Ashutosh Srivastava
Leena Srivastava
Kjartan Steen-Olsen
Julia Steinberger
Lars Strupeit
Terry Surles
Tatsujiro Suzuki
Alice Sverdlik
Minoru Takada
Richard Taylor
Theodore Thrasher
Robert Thresher
Julie Tran
Upendra Tripathy
Craig Turchi
Wim Turkenburg
Neha Umarji
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
Eric Usher
Sergey Vakulenko
Harry Vallack
Rita van Dingenen
Denis van Es
Bas van Ruijven
Wilfried van Sark
Oscar van Vliet
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Geert Verbong
Preeti Verma
David Victor
Eugene Visagie
Seppo Vuori
Horst Wagner
Rahul Walawalkar
Njeri Wamukonya†
Jim Watson
Sandy Webb
Jan Weinzettel
Helga Weisz
John Weyant
John T. Wilbanks
Paul Wilkinson
Robert H. Williams
Charlie Wilson
Rosemary Wolson
Ernst Worrell
Iain Wright
Vladimir Yakushev
Kenji Yamaji
Kurt Yeager
Suyuan Yu
Hisham Zerriffi
Qiang Zhang
Xiliang Zhang
Li Zhou
Ji Zou
Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)
The Global Energy Challenge
● Major transformations are needed for future
energy systems to be affordable, safe, secure, and
environmentally sound
● Urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive
strategy to help resolve the following challenges:
Providing clean and affordable energy services for all
Increasing energy security for all nations, regions,
communities
Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to
less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels
Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel
combustion and its impacts on human health
Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal access to modern energy
● Double rate of energy efficiency
improvement
● Double renewable share in final energy
Aspirational & ambitious but
achievable
UN General Assembly designation
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass Microchip
Commercial
aviation
Television
Vacuum
tube Gasoline
engine Electric
motor Steam
engine
Nuclear
energy
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Present
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,
and behavior)
~40% improvement by 2030
~35% renewables by 2030
Oil phase-out (necessary)
Nuclear phase-out (choice)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Example Pathway 1 (no CCS, no nuclear)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass Microchip
Commercial
aviation
Television
Vacuum
tube Gasoline
engine Electric
motor Steam
engine
Nuclear
energy
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Example Pathway 2
World Energy Investments 2010
Industrialized
55%
Developing
45% Demand (Energy components)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission/Distr.
Fossil Electricity
NuclearRenewable Electricity
Other conversion
Upstream:
Fossil Fuels 30%
Electricity 40%
Demand > 25%
300-1700 billion
US $1.3 trillion (incl. demand)
● Policies to enable rapid transformation of
energy systems must provide effective
incentives and strong signals for deployment at
scale of efficient technologies and systems that
foster sustainable development
GEA pathways indicate annual global investments
in energy efficiency and supply need to increase
from US$1.3 trillion to 1.7–2.2 trillion (ie, 2% of
global GDP)
Current R&D efforts in these areas are grossly
inadequate compared with future potentials and
needs
Stable Investment Regimes
Policy Integration at the Urban Scale
Simulated energy use for an urban settlement of 20,000 inhabitants
using SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form,
density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization
Source: Grubler et al, 2012