Samuele Furfari

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Energy transitions Egmont - Royal Institute for International Relations

Development Group

Brussels 10 May 2012

Samuele Furfari

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Key issues to address energy transition

37 stimulating questions

Samuele Furfari

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Historical moment of a transition from a world to an other

• End of OECD domination

• Others poles of power are already there and others will emerge

– China, India, Brazil + a lot of "small" others

• Barycentre is moving from Atlantic to Pacific

• Obama : "the rise of the others"

• This horizon is not reversible

• "The Glorious Thirty" : it is "their" turn

More "Europe" and not less

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The EU creation, a successful transition

Messina and the nuclear transition

Samuele Furfari

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Transition in 1978

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COCONUC, the EU transition in 1980

CO CO NUC

Samuele Furfari

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Targets of 1980

45,3%

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18,6 38,3 22,8 14,1 5,7

Real %

Real Mtoe

180,4 483,4 311,6 164,3 42,7

1182,4

Samuele Furfari

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1990 2000 Forecast (%) Real (%)

100 100

39 31

4 6

5 17

47 31

3 12

1 2

SF+Nuc (%) 86% 62%

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20% objective … since 1986

COUNCIL RESOLUTION of 16 September 1986 concerning new Community energy policy objectives for 1995 and convergence of the policies of the Member States (86/C 241/01)

(a) to achieve even greater energy efficiency in all sectors and act to highlight specific energy-saving possibilities. The efficiency of final energy demand should be improved by at least 20 % by 1995;

Samuele Furfari

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The H2 transition

Source : A Strub, Commission, in Hydrogen : energy vector for the future,

Conference on 24/25 March 1981

under the direction of G. Beghi (ISBN 0 86010 4516), page 24

En.Conserv. 23%

H2 13%

Solar 39%

geoth 19%

models & strat

6%

EE has always been the poor relative

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The coal conversion transition

IGCC, ELCOGAS 1994

Coal Liquefaction Point of Ayr 1989

UCG 1980-1994

Samuele Furfari

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The transition of gas

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The consequence of coal gasification transition

NCG revolution

Water

(steam) Coal

Syngas

(CO & H2)

IGCC

CO2

CCS Precombustion

Samuele Furfari

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Let's hope that this is a short transition

Source: Platts Gas Daily, European Gas Daily

$/GBtu

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Germany

EU27

USA

China

India

Electricity Price

Residential Industry

Is this an other transition ?

Source: Siemens, Dr. Michael Suess, 25 April 2012, EEG Erneuerbare Energie Gesetz

€ct/kWh

"The electricity cost will be socialized"

Samuele Furfari

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After Sakhalin, is it now a real transition? ExxonMobil

18 April 2012 Statoil

5 May 2012 ENI

25 April 2012

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1924

Oil transition is not new • Federal Oil Conservation Board (FOCB) • Created in Dec 1924 • Composed of secretaries of war, the navy, the interior and

commerce • Organised hearings, inviting both professional experts and

oilmen. • From 1926 to 1933 a series of reports • State regulations • Domestics production quotas • State-federal agency to forecast demand and allocate

production quotas

Ended with: • Discoveries of major oil fields (Dad, in East Texas) • Great Depression

Samuele Furfari

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• "If we want to phase out nuclear and enter into renewable energy, for the transition period we will need plants running on fossil fuels. At least 10, most likely 20 GW of fossil fuels will be built in the next 10 years "

• A. Merkel

Energiewende

And operated for how many years?

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This should be a very short transition

Samuele Furfari

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A transition should be affordable and sustainable

Conditions to become rich according Warren Buffett :

1.Rationality

2.Honesty

3.Long-term

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sfurfari@ulb.ac.be Samuele.furfari@ec.europa.eu

Thank you very much