Energy Update Liberia

7/29/2019 Energy Update Liberia

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Liberia: Inputs to the Energy Access Action Plan, 20122030

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2

1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................... 3

1.2. Looking forward ............................................................................................................................ 4

2. Increasing access to Electricity in Liberia: An Economic and Social Objective ..................................... 4

2.1. National electrification objectives for economic growth and social development ...................... 4

2.2. Key Dimensions of the Strategy .................................................................................................... 5

3. Transmission Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 10

3.1. General ........................................................................................................................................ 10

3.2. Grid Development Philosophy .................................................................................................... 10

3.3. Transmission Grid Development ................................................................................................. 13

3.4. Implementation Arrangements .................................................................................................. 15

3.5. Transmission Grid Investment Summary .................................................................................... 16

4. Distribution Network .......................................................................................................................... 16

4.1. General ........................................................................................................................................ 17

4.2. Distribution System Development Philosophy ........................................................................... 19

4.3. Phased Development of Distribution Network ........................................................................... 21

4.4. Implementation Arrangements .................................................................................................. 22

4.5. Summary of Distribution Investment requirements ................................................................... 24

5. Demand Supply Balance ..................................................................................................................... 24

5.1. Electricity Demand Projections. .................................................................................................. 24

5.2. Supply projections....................................................................................................................... 26

5.3. Supply Options and Least-cost Generation expansion Plan ....................................................... 27

5.4. Demand-Supply gap .................................................................................................................... 29

5.5. Implementation arrangements for additional generation ......................................................... 31

6. Fuel Supply Infrastructure................................................................................................................... 34

6.1. Supply Price for Grid-Electricity .................................................................................................. 35

6.2. Fuel Pricing .................................................................................................................................. 36

6.3. Fuel supply and Fuel infrastructure for thermal generation ...................................................... 37


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6.4. Fuel requirements and sizing of fuel import infrastructure ....................................................... 38

6.5. Implementation arrangements for development of fuel supply infrastructure ......................... 38

7. Financial performance of the Utility and quality of service for the users .......................................... 39

7.1. Commercial management ........................................................................................................... 39

7.2. Connection cost .......................................................................................................................... 39

7.3. Tariff methodology and principles .............................................................................................. 40

7.4. Customer Mix .............................................................................................................................. 41

7.5. Attention to the Customers and Quality of Service Monitoring ................................................. 41

7.6. Capital and operating cost estimates, and phasing of investments for system improvements . 42

7.7. Implementation arrangements for handling commercial aspects ............................................. 42

7.8. Reducing losses from thefts ........................................................................................................ 43

8. Renewable Energy, Off-grid System, and Rural Electrification ........................................................... 43

8.1. Overview of renewable energy resource resources in Liberia ................................................... 43

8.2. Strategy for Rural Electrification: Policy objectives, and Implementing Framework. ............... 48

8.3. Planning Access Program. ........................................................................................................... 49

8.4. Institutional Options ................................................................................................................... 50

8.5. Pricing and Subsidy Policy ........................................................................................................... 51

8.6. Technical Options for Off-Grid Extension .................................................................................. 52

9. Investment Planning and Financing .................................................................................................... 55

10. Institutional Development and Capacity Development Strategy .................................................. 55

10.1. Clarification of roles and responsibilities ................................................................................ 55

10.2. Skills needed for the energy sector......................................................................................... 57

10.3. Gaps and capacity-building strategies .................................................................................... 57

10.4. Identification of potential sources of financing for institutional development and capacity

building ..57

11. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................... 58

1. Introduction


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1.1.Background

Before its civil war (19892003), Liberia had a total installed capacity of 182 MW (64 MW

hydropower, 68 MW gas turbines, 40 MW heavy fuel oil, 10 MW medium speed diesel), 98% of

which was located around Monrovia. The electricity sector had around 35,000 customers at thetime. The hydropower plant at Mount Coffee supplied 64 MW during the wet season and less

than 10 MW during the dry season. Outside Monrovia there were ten small isolated power

systems supplying rural areas.

At the end of the civil war in 2003, the power sector was largely destroyed due to warfare.

Whatever remained was destroyed through looting up to 2005. This included the complete

destruction of the hydropower plant at Mount Coffee as well as all the transmission lines and the

distribution network. The Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC), the national electricity utility,

ceased operations. Less than 2% of Liberias population had access to electricity.

In order to overcome this critical situation of the electricity sector, the Sirleaf Government has

embraced energy development as a priority and has been working toward the reconstruction of

the electricity sector at the urban, rural, and regional levels. National Energy Policy (NEP),

endorsed in June 2009calls for universal and sustainable access to affordable and reliable energy

supplies to foster the economic, political, and social development of Liberia. The NEP sets four

main pillars to achieve its developmental goals: (i) universal energy access, including the

development of an energy master plan; (ii) least-cost production of energy and protection of the

most vulnerable households; (iii) the adoption of international best practices in the electricity

sector; and (iv) the acceleration of public and private partnership in the sector.

Since the elections in 2006, achievements are clearly visible. As LECs basic functions were

restored a five year Management Contract was signed in July 2010 with Manitoba Hydro

International (MIH) and the support of the international donor community. A small grid was

rebuilt and is supplied with electricity by high-speed diesel generators with a total capacity of 9.6

MW in 2009. Electricity is distributed through four separate sub-stations. Finally, in early 2010

and for the first time in Liberias history, a Rural and Renewable Energy Agency (RREA) has

dedicated its services solely to rural areas, including the rural poor.

More recently, installed generation capacity increased from 9 MW to 22.6 MW of diesel-generatedpower from 2010 to 2012, of which about 16 MW are effectively available. In addition, several donors

are supporting the expansion of generation in the short term (see table below), and the implementation of

a regional transmission network, linking Liberia to the West African Power Pool (WAPP), and

connecting Cte dIvoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (CSLG). This will make it possible for

Liberia to import cheaper power from other countries, such as Cte dIvoire, and it would also transform

the domestic power system in Liberia-- and Sierra Leoneby building the backbone transmission lines

in those countries, which have very limited electricity infrastructure.


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GoLs efforts to reconstruct and develop the transmission and distribution network and expand

coverage services to the population have benefitted from strong international donor support. US$

55 M of public funding is currently available for the development of the transmission and

distribution network. As the power system improved, peak demand went up from 4 MW to 8.6 MW.

LEC has increased its active customer base from 2,000 to 5,800 customers (less than 1% of the national

population).

In sum, there have been significant progress in rebuilding the power sector from the situation it was left

after the war. Yet, much remains to be done, and the country faces still important challenges to be able to

provide modern electricity services to its population. Lack of basic electricity infrastructure, high costs

reflected in a tariff that is among the highest in the region, low quality of the service that deter

commercial and industrial users from using LECs services instead ofself-generation, a generation mix

based on expensive imported fuel and a lack of a solid pipeline of generation projects that could increase

the electricity available at a lower cost in the medium term are some of the obstacles that will need to be

addressed in order to place Liberias electricity sector on a sustainable development path.

1.2.Looking Forward

Building on results achieved so far, the GOL has adopted an ambitious strategy to expand coverage,

improve the quality of electricity services (summarized in the next section) and reduce the costs of these

services. Reducing the cost of electricity and improving quality and reliability of service will be key to

foster economic activity and facilitate the long term development of the country. It intends to

operationalize this strategy through a detailed action plan for the short term (2012-2015) and a more

indicative plan over a medium term horizon (2012-2030).

The remaining sections of this document elaborate on the GOLs vision and key ideas as communicated

to the World Bank team during the last mission. It also incorporates emerging best practices for the

GOLs consideration. Technical figures and projections are based on the data available to the team, and

will need to be updated based on more recent estimates by LEC and other sources.

2. Increasing Access to Electricity in Liberia: An Economic and Social Objective

2.1.National Electrification Objectives for Economic Growth and Social Development


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Having re-established electricity services to key areas of the capital and having launched an initial

program of connections for poor customers, GOL has now shifted its strategy from crisis management to

the medium and long term development of the electricity sector. This vision, which includes clear

development goals, was outlined in the National Energy Policy (NEP) adopted in 2009. It was further

developed in 2012, when GOL announced an ambitious plan to bring electricity services to a significant

share of the Liberian population (35% countrywide and 70% for Monrovia) by 2030. The plan aims toachieve the quality and reliability of electricity services required to ensure that the electricity sector does

not continue to be a major bottleneck to the countrys economic growth and development. The plan

further aims to expand the economic uses of electricity in urban and rural areas.

2.2.Key Dimensions of the Strategy

An action plan to achieve these ambitious objectives to improve and expand electricity in the country

would require the GoL to take actions on several fronts simultaneously. This section outlines the key

dimensions that are essential to the success of the Governments Energy Access Strategy.

2.2.1. A Transmission and Distribution Led StrategyThe Governments vision for the development of the electricity sector is based on a transmission and

distribution led strategy, and on the expansion of the associated generation capacity to respond to the

expected increase in demand. Given the scant infrastructure, the GOL is aware that accelerating coverage

and offering reliable services will require massive investments in transmission, distribution and metering

equipment. GOLs specific T&D expansion objectives over the short and medium term are examined in

greater detail in section 5 and 6.

Since 2006, LEC has focused on the rehabilitation of the power network and the restoration of services in

the main areas of Monrovia. However, given the envisioned expansion of the transmission and

distribution network, it may be important for the GoL to rethink LECs role as the national utility. The

accelerated expansion will likely require LEC to resume its role as a utility with country-wide

responsibilities. For instance, the GoL has indicated that LEC will be expected to serve a larger customer

base in Greater Monrovia and outside of the capital, such as commercial and industrial users currently

relying on auto-generated supply. Given that the GOL is currently renegotiating the management

contract with Manitoba Hydro International (MIH), this may represent an opportunity to discuss LECs

evolving role in ensuring a successful implementation of the Governments expansion plan.

2.2.2. Reducing Cost of Electricity for Greater affordability and Sustainable Increase inDemand

Electricity tariffs in Liberia are among the highest in the region. Nevertheless, they still fall short of fully

recovering the cost of producing electricity. In part, these tariffs are subsidized by the donors through the

provision of capital at subsidized rates, and by the Government through subsidizing current costs. The


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high electricity cost are due in part to the high cost of generation that is based on diesel-fired generation,

the small scale of the system that prevents the use of larger and more efficient generation units, and to

inefficiencies in transmission and distribution. The reasons for such high costs, and the actions to be

taken to reduce them are discussed in various parts of this document. However, it is important to

highlight from the outset that the high cost of electricity and the low quality of services are a major

obstacle to the success of a strategy aiming to expand access and services to a larger share of thepopulation in Liberia. Unless cost decrease and tariffs follow the lead, poor users will not be able to

afford the services, even if enough resources are secured to expand the network and allow these users to

be connected to the grid. Equally important, unless the utility is able to provide reliable service of high

quality to commercial and industrial users, it may not be able to convince them to give up self generation

and connect to the national grid.

To improve the provision of electricity services, the GoL requested the support of the development

partners, who provided in 2010 emergency funding to the national utility, LEC to procure a management

contractor to improve the utilitys performance and build up its customer base over a five year period.

LECs management contractor Manitoba Hydro International has been in place since July 2010.Operational results have been clearly identified. MHI is expected to establish 33,000 new connections

over a five-year period, resulting in an additional 160,000 people in Monrovia having electricity for the

first time since the war, and to reduce technical and commercial losses from 29 to 12 percent. Also,

capacity building should result in LECs ability to sustain improved operational performance over the

long term (see section 7).

However, the high electricity costs are caused to a substantial part by the predominance of fuel-based

thermal generation. The Government has already decided to shift from diesel to heavy fuel based

thermal plants in the development of new generation in the short term. Further progress in this direction

would require government strategic considerations to focus not only on how to expand generation

capacity, but also on how to shift the energy mix towards sources of energies that would in the mediumterm lead to lower electricity cost. This is an important aspect of the Government Sector Strategy that is

discussed further in sections 3 and 8 of this document.

2.2.3. Expanding Generation CapacityThe need to develop additional generation capacity in the short and medium term is a direct consequence

of the GOLs strategy to rapidly expand services to the population. The expected accelerated demand

growth has to be accommodated and also modulated to smooth out demand peaks and reduce pressure for

additional capacity. Mechanisms such as interruptible tariffs for large customers could be one way of

managing efficiently the demand, but ultimately, the expansion of the system and resulting increase in thedemand from customers will require investing in additional generation capacity. Given the demands on

public funding by the expansion of the transmission and distribution network, GOL aims to develop new

generation capacity mainly through private sector sponsorship. Securing this new generation capacity is a

pressing concern for the Government, since it is expected that the accelerated growth of demand will lead

to generation shortages already by the end of 2013, despite the various thermal plants already in the

pipeline, the rehabilitation of Mt. Coffee and the regional imports from the CLSG.


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The GoL has indicated that the shift from diesel to cleaner and cheaper sources of energy is another driver

of its energy strategy. Alternative energy sources would reduce the cost of electricity to end users -and

would help the Liberian economy to shift onto a path of lower carbon growth and development. In the

short term, this shift requires scaling up the thermal generation capacity based on Heavy Fuel, completing

the rehabilitation of the hydroelectric Mt. Coffee Plant, and exploring additional hydroelectric powerfrom the Saint Paul River. The diversification of energy sources will also be facilitated by the integration

of Liberia into the West African Power Pool through the CLSG regional transmission line. The CLSG

regional transmission line will allow Liberia to import cheaper hydroelectric power from the regional

market, notably from Cte dIvoire. In the medium term, an important part of the strategy to adopt a

cleaner and cheaper energy mix for the country could include further exploring hydroelectric resources

from the Saint Paul River, increasing electricity trade on the regional market, and analyzing options for

diversifying towards wood chip biomass or other biofuels. In the longer term, options such as using gas

could also be considered, perhaps by bundling Liberias demand with that of other neighboring countries,

to achieve economies of scale and hence more favorable prices.

2.2.4. Ensuring Sustainable and Cost Effective Availability of FuelThrough the sector strategys focus on shifting from diesel to Heavy Fuel (HF), the GOL has manifested a

strong commitment to rehabilitate the port facilities (oil jetty, storage terminal, and other facilities) and

the fuel supply system required to bring fuel from the port to the generation plants. The GoL has

initiated the rehabilitation of LECs fuel storage tanks at Bushrod facility with the support of international

donors (under the World Bank financed LESEP project). It also has engaged in discussions with private

oil companies involved in HF trade and transportation. An agreement has been reached to transport HF by

trucks to the new thermal plants as they enter into operation. Simultaneously, the GoL is working todevelop a more comprehensive solution based on the rehabilitation of the pipeline in order to secure a

reliable supply of Heavy Fuel for the additional generation capacity needed to bridge the demand-supply

gap.

The Government has indicated that the shift to HF-based generation would allow for part of the cost-

savings from cheaper fuel to translate into cheaper tariffs for end-users. Reduced tariffsto reflect

reduced costs-- would help remove a major obstacle for increasing effective demand for electricity, and

will help the GoL to achieve the envisaged expansion of coverage and service improvements.

2.2.5. Strengthening the Financial and Operational Sustainability of the SectorThe public sector will always play an important role in the planning and development of the

electricity sector, but ultimately the long term sustainability of the sector will depend on its

capacity to generate internal resources through customer fees and savings from increased


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efficiency, and its ability to attract private sector resources notably in the generation segment.

The extent to which the sector achieves long term sustainability will help lessening the fiscal

burden on the government, and will facilitate economic activity and growth, by releasing one of

the key constraints to private sector development in Liberia1.

2.2.5.1. Improving Financial and Operational Performance of the Utility

A significant part of the commercialization strategy focuses on the operational and financial strengthening

of the public utility, LEC. Measures include all efforts to reduce costs, such as the shift from diesel to

heavy fuel or hydroelectricity and the use of pre-paid meters or of interruptible tariffs for large customers.

The strategy also requires LEC to undertake an active campaign to expand its client base to include a

significant number of commercial and industrial customers. LEC should be willing to shift from self-

generation to grid connections to offer these potential customers the reliable, high quality service at

reasonable prices that they need. Increasing the regular paying customer base, particularly large ones,

together with GPOBAs grant for connecting over 16,000 poor households, should help LEC gain a

stronger financial footing. This will enhance its credibility as the off-taker when new private sector-ledgeneration enters the Liberian energy market.

2.2.5.2. Attracting Private Investment in Generation

Equally important, the GoL has highlighted that it expects the private sector to play a leading role in the

development of the generation capacity of the country, while the Government would focus public

resources on the expansion of the transmission and distribution network. Expanding generation capacity

through private sector initiatives would leverage the use of public resources. Private electricity

generation would also increase the efficiency of the sector through transfer of technical and managerial

expertise.

An approach focused on increasing private participation in the electricity generation in Liberia has thus

many advantages and would complement very well the Governments efforts. At the same time,

attracting private investors on a sustainable basis depends critically on several factors that need to be in

place for this strategy to be successful:

Enabling environment for private sector participation: private investors need an enabling

environment, including but not limited to a clear and predictable legal and regulatory framework

in which contracts can be properly signed, enforced and monitored;

Broad public consensus on the benefits of private sector participation for the country in general,

and service users in particular. This matters as it would facilitate the support of the legislative

branch in ratifying contracts, and avoid any public backlash during the life of the projects;

Solid pipeline of potential projects, based on the GoLs overall sector expansion plan that will

give the Government a credible starting point to discuss with interested sponsors and lenders how

they can participate in the sector.

1 Liberia Investment Climate Policy Note 2010, World Bank publication, cited in Developing Public-PrivatePartnerships in Liberia,, PPIAF-World Bank Study, 2012..


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Institutional capacity within the government to lead the dialogue and engage effectively with the

private sector: this entails the presence of committed key official(s) in charge of bringing the

process from start to finish; the existence of technical expertise about private sector participation

in electricity that can be leveraged (but not substituted) by external consultants, and a strong

inter-institutional coordination among all relevant agencies involved in the process.

Given the interest of the Government to attract private investors to increase generation capacity

in the short term, it may be important to focus (1) on launching some key projects, based on

sound and carefully drafted contracts, and (2) focus on developing the overall legal and

regulatory framework for private sector participation (consistent with the individual contracts) to

facilitate a broader engagement in the sector of private investors. The support of the donor

community with risk mitigation instruments, such as guarantees of different sorts will be critical,

because they will help the government to build up credibility and a track record of its own. A

similar approach could be adopted with the objective of strengthening institutional capacity in

the energy sector for PSP: use one or two transactions as training-on-the-job opportunities for

government officials with the appropriate qualifications (economical, financial, engineering,

legal, etc.) to prepare specific transactions with the support of external consultants. These first

transactions, if successful, will have a demonstration effect beyond the sector, as they will

demonstrate the capacity of Liberia to be a trusted partner for local and international private

investors.

2.2.6. Institutional Development and Capacity BuildingInvestment in human capital and the reconstruction of physical infrastructure are central pillars of the

GoLs development strategy. In the energy sector, the Government Energy Access Strategy includes a

plan for institutional development and capacity building for the institutions involved in the sector,

including the Ministry of Mines, Lands and Energy (MLME), the Rural and Renewable Energy Agency

(RREA), LISGIS, and LEC. The plan will play a key role in strengthening the governance of the sector

and the capacity of the utility to deliver the services.

It is particularly important to rebuild the technical and managerial skills of a population severely affected

by the war. For this reason, it would be important not only to implement the necessary training programs,

but also to ensure that all contracts with experts of all sorts (technical assistance as well as commercial

contracts) include commitments to transfer expertise to local personal, with easily monitorable

performance indicators. This approach has been used already in the management contract with ManitobaInternational Hydro with the support of the international donor community, and could be replicated in

other cases as well.


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3. Transmission Infrastructure

3.1.General

The demand forecast presented in the Electric Master Plan (LEC 2011) for Monrovia as well asthe document Options for the Development of Liberia Energy Sector (World Bank, 2011),

both predicted high levels of demand for Liberia in the years to come compared to the current

situation. The LEC High Case Scenario 3 (unconstraint) predicted demand of 2015 Monrovia

(Est 2015 pop 1.1M ) is 75MW. The High Growth demand forecast in The Options for the

Development of Liberias Energy Sector [AFTEG, 2011] predicts a demand of 150MW for

Monrovia by 2030.2

In this document the LEC forecast is used for Monrovia whilst the forecast in the Options for

the Development ofLiberia Energy Sector (World Bank, 2011) is used for the remainder ofLiberia, as. (The LEC Master Plan forecast only covers Monrovia).

The grid development program presented in this document is largely conceptual and only meant

to be indicative of future requirements. A rigorous technical design involving load flows, short

circuit analysis, and reliability investigations was beyond the scope of this desktop study. Such

an exercise which remains to be done would have to confirm adequacy of the circuits to carry

their expected loads under normal and emergency conditions, and ensure voltage drop and

technical losses fall within acceptable limits and that supply reliability criteria are met.

3.2.Grid Development Philosophy

3.2.1. Voltage LevelsThe Government of Liberia has started the reconstruction of the distribution (22kV) and the sub-

transmission (66kV) lines in Monrovia .The Regional Transmission Line interconnection Cote

dIvoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone; Guinea (CLSG Regional Transmission Line) introduces 225kV

as the extra high voltage for transmission. The CLSG Regional Transmission Line is also

equipped in 3 substations in Liberia with a secondary voltage of 33kV and the substation

2 While currently the economic circumstances of Ghana cannot be compared with those of Liberia, it is believed thatin the long term, once Liberia gets to the development of its vast natural resources that comparison can beworthwhile. In comparison with the demand estimated for Monrovia under LECs high case scenario of (75MW in2015), thedemand for 2011 for Accra (pop 3.5Million) was 443MW; which can be projected at 7% growth rate peryear to 581MW by 2015. Similarly demand forecast for Accra for 2015 amounts to 182. 5 MW for 1.1 M peoplehigher in pro rata terms than the prediction of demand for Monrovia by 2030. Thus, these comparisons ofMonrovias forecast of demand, with the evolution of demand in Accra, show that even the high case demandforecast figures for Monrovia are not overstated.


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connecting Mount Coffee with a secondary voltage of 66kK. This means that the 22kV and 66kV

combination would apply in Monrovia while 33kV would be used for both sub-transmission and

distribution in the rest of the country.

With 33kV as the sub-transmission voltage outside Monrovia, there may be the need to extendthe 225kV grid within the foreseeable future in order to be able to serve some parts of the south

east of the country which are far from the proposed 225kV grid.

3.2.2. Sub transmission Level DevelopmentGiven the high levels of growth expected, it is necessary to size the lines appropriately to be able

to provide for the foreseeable future. The schedule shows the selected line sizes and their thermal

MVA ratings.

Line Type 66kV 33kV

i) 3X265 mm2 AAC [Heavy Gauge] 80 MVA 40MVA

ii) 3X150 mm2 AAC [ Light gauge] 50 MVA 25MVA

The 66kV and 33kV networks should be designed as much as feasible for construction in loops

or rings. Further, such loops and rings would, in turn, be inter-linked. The proposed

arrangements will help improve reliability. Where a ring circuit cannot be justified for cost

reasons radial feeders may be used.

3.2.3. 225kV SubstationsThe CLSG Regional Transmission Line will have a transformational impact on the national

power systems by building the Liberia backbone transmission line that is able to connect the

counties far from Monrovia. However, some counties, for instance Grand Kru, Maryland, Grand

Gedeh and Sinoe, are so far away from any of the current planned substations in the CLSG

Regional Transmission Line that a cost effective connection is not possible. Very long lines

would be required to connect these counties with grid power. This would also present technical

challenges such as high transmission losses and poor voltage regulation.

In order to reach out to the majority of the population in a cost effective way with reliable

power, it is proposed, and included in this plan, to construct a fifth substation of 222/33kV at

Bolata.


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3.2.4. 66kV 33kV and 22kV Substations CharacteristicsThe design and construction of substations involving these voltage levels should be such that

they can be upgraded or expanded to accommodate twin transformers and sectionalized buses.

It is advised that all 66kV and 33kV equipment be of outdoor type to provide for flexibility for

upgrades, replacement etc. 22kV equipment may be indoor type, metal-clad with appropriate

degree of protection eg. IP41

The capacity of 66/22kVsubstation now in use is 1X10/13MVA. Within a few years of robust

load growth this would not be adequate in some locations in Monrovia. For about 15% more

investment such a substation could be provided with a 1X20/26MVA capacity. Therefore, it is

proposed that all future procurement of this type of power transformers should include the larger

20/26MVA units. (Most of the other components of the substations are exactly the same foreither size of transformer, including switchgear).

3.2.5. Control systemSCADA

The CLSG Regional Transmission Line and its substations are to be provided with a SCADA

system under the CLSG project. A primary SCADA system is also proposed for the Monrovia

Mt Coffee area. This will cover the three proposed 66/22kV substations as well as the existing

two at Bushrod and Paynesville.

It is also proposed that two SCADA systems would be provided. First, a SCADA system would

be provided at least for the proposed switching Station at Fish Town. Second, a SCADA system

would be required to control the sub-grids of the various county capitals.

Considering the development of a power network system and how the system would be built in

phases, it is recommended to consider a substation equipment to be SCADA-ready in order to

ensure compatibility and harmonized synchronization and operation.

3.2.6. Rights-of-WayThroughout the development of the power system network, it would be required from LEC, with

the support of the MLML and the GOL, to secure the transmission lines rights-of-way as well as

sites for substations. Best practices indicate that a 30m wide corridor is typical for sub

transmission lines and somewhat less for 22kV lines.


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The rights-of-way must be sufficient to provide safety for persons and for development of future

networks along existing ones.

It may be necessary for LEC with the support of GOL to secure transmission lines rights of way

as well as sites for substations. A 30m wide corridor is typical for sub transmission lines.Somewhat less can be used for 22kV lines.

The rights of way must be sufficient to provide safety for persons and for development of future

networks along existing ones.

3.2.7. SkywireA scheme of Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) would be used utilize the skywire on the

proposed CLSG Regional Transmission Line 225kV to reach communities that come under the

line.

3.3.Transmission Grid Development

This planning exercise recommends the development of the transmission power grid in phases in

order to match the demand forecast, and facilitate the implementation of the reconstruction of the

power sector. Based on the GoL ambitious targets to accelerate the expansion of services to the

population, it is assumed that investments in transmission and distribution would be expanded to

cover 70 percent of the greater Monrovia residents and 35 percent of the population in the

country by 2030.

3.3.1. Development in the Greater Monrovia Area (Phase 1)The first phase for the transmission investments in this plan considers the period from 2012-2015

and is composed of the LECs Master plan for the period of 2012 to 2015 (See Annex 4) with its

geographical limitation, as well as the Greater Monrovia Area. The LECs Master Plan cost

estimations for the period of 2012-2015 indicates an investment requirement ofUS $ 81,583,604.

This phase will also include the three following areas:

i) Paynesville to Airport

ii) Monrovia to Kakata

iii) Monrovia to Bomi Hills/Kle


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This Plan includes a proposal for a heavy gauge 66kV ring around Monrovia to interconnect the

three target locations instead of simply constructing individual radial lines to serve them. This

ring runs from PaynesvilleHarbel (Airport)Kakata - Mt Coffee to Bushrod . In addition a

radial line is proposed to link Bushrod to Bomi Hills.

As part of this rings, it would be required a 66kV/22kV Substations that are proposed to be

located at Harbel/Airport, Kakata and Bomi Hills respectively. 22kV lines would then continue

downstream to serve as the distribution MV network. These proposed lines traverse very fast-

developing suburbs of Greater Monrovia and beyond. The provision of electricity to these areas

is essential since larger loads and economic activities are located in these areas.

An interconnection of 66/33kVsubstation is proposed for Harbel to provide a link between the

66kV Mount Coffee sub-grid and the Buchanan 225kV substation. This will help provide some

emergency grid supply to Monrovia in the event of a contingency at Mount Coffee hydro power

plan.

A conceptual design has been done based on the Transmission Grid Development Philosophy in

Section 5.2. The proposed Grid Layout from this activity is attached as Appendix 2 while the

Grid Single Line Diagram is presented as Appendix 3.

To facilitate future connections to such a system LEC should specify all its proposed substation

equipment to be SCADA-ready. A general provision of $4M is made for this equipment.

The schedule of Transmission Investment Requirements under Phase1 is to be found in

Appendix 1.

3.3.2. Transmission Grid Development: Country wide Phases 2, 3 and 4Phases 2, 3 and 4 of the transmission grid development plan cover all areas outside Monrovia.

However provision is also made for the expansion of the grid in Monrovia beyond 2015 since it

is expected a demand increase in the area. Development in the three phases would involve the

construction of 33kV circuits from the proposed 225/33kV, construction of switching stations,

SCADA and Skywire in order to supply the towns en route the transmission lines. This access

plan considers the connection of 50 communities along the three phases of implementation.

In order to identify the priority to interconnect certain load centers during the three phases, it is

necessary to have a clear and upfront set of criteria for the planning exercise. The following set

of criteria is proposed:


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a) Top Priority: Towns nearest to the proposed 225 Substations Phase 2

b) Second Priority: Other towns but not covered by the Cross-Border project Phase 3

c) Least priority: Counties covered by Cross-border project Phase 4

A conceptual design has been carried out based on the transmission Grid DevelopmentPhilosophy provided in Section 5.2. The proposed Grid Layout from this activity is attached as

Appendix 2 while the Grid Single Line Diagram is presented as Appendix 3. The design

proposals include interconnections between sub-grids of 225 substations.

3.4.Implementation Arrangements

3.4.1. Appraisal Prior to Implementation of Each PhaseAs indicated in the previous sections, this indicative plan should be complemented with more

detail on the economic, financial and technical aspects of the expansion of the electricity sector.Likewise, environmental consideration should be also included.

On the technical aspects, a rigorous Load Flow Analysis would be required in the technicalinvestigation to ensure adequacy of line and substations loading capacity. This Load FlowAnalysis will determinate the beat economical operation for the existing system, so it isnecessary to update this analysis in each of the phases so adjustment can be made to access plan.This analysis is also very valuable since this will identify the proper protection devices to insurethe security of the system.

3.4.2. Project Packaging StrategyFor each phase the procurement may be divided into packages as proposed below:

Package ActivityProcurement

Method

1. Transmission Lines Supply& Erect I C B

2. Substations Supply& Erect I C B

Depending on size the Transmission Lines package may be divided in two Lots for easier

implementation.

3.4.3. Project Management


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It is proposed that LEC capabilities are enhance in order to be able to properly handling of

project procurement from tendering, through evaluation, negotiation and contract signing.

LEC would be responsible for supervision during construction. In Phase 1 the Management

Contract can support the implementation of the investments. For subsequent Phases, therewould be the need for technical assistance in the absence of Manitoba Hydro International

whose current contract would have expired.

3.4.4. Institutional Capacity DevelopmentThe provisions made under Distribution system Development Sub-Section 4.4.4 also cover for

the Transmission Development component. Thus no additional provision is made here.

3.5.Transmission Grid Investment Summary

Phase Description Cost (US $)

Phase 1 Monrovia (2013-2015) Lines and Substations 19,543,045

Phase 1 Monrovia (2013- 2016) As Per LEC Master Plan 81,583,604

Phase 2 All Liberia (2016-2020) Lines and Substations 20,335,612



Provision for Skywire Supply ($ 15,000 each for 50 Towns) 750,000

SCADA 4,000,000

Total183,398,306

Add 10% Physical and contingencies 18,339,831

Total For Transmission Grid Investment 201,738,137

4. Distribution Network


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4.1.General

Over the plan period it is expected that electricity distribution supply would be expanded to

cover 70% of the greater Monrovia residents and 35 percent of the population elsewhere.

According to the 2008 population the population in Liberia was 3,489,072 people with 1,010,970

people living in Monrovia. These two figures are extrapolated at the compound rate of 2.1percent

per year until to 2030 with a total population of 5,511,581 in Liberia and 1,596,999 in Monrovia.

The difference between the two figures of 3,914,582 is the 2030 projected population for outside

Monrovia

At an average of 5 residents per household we have 782,916 and 319,400 households for the rest

of Liberia and Monrovia respectively, by 2030. (Pop growth rate and # residents /household

obtained from Census Report 2008)

Assuming a target of 70% access to electricity in Monrovia, this would result in 223,580

households in Monrovia. Similarly, achieving 35% access to electricity in the rest of the country,

this would represent 274,020 households. However, it is important to point out that this

indicative planning needs a more detail analysis in order to confirm the population and location.

In order to achieve these targets it is important to consider the expansion the power grid in the

greater Monrovia area with transmission and distribution grids of 66kV and 22kV. For the

remainder of the country it is proposed the following criteria to achieve the national target of

electrification:

i) All County Capitals and Towns of population greater than 5,000.ii) Areas immediately outside Monrovia which are to benefit from extensive

grid extension (e.g. Harbel, Kakata. Bomi Hills)iii) Cross-Border Towns Electrificationiv) Skywire Supply along 225kV lines.

Information received from LEC indicates that there is an ongoing contract with EU support for

the connection of 18 communities in Grand Dedeh, Maryland and Nimba Counties through

cross-border collaboration with the Cote dIvoire. The 9,6Million, which will be completed by

July 2013, would get electricity to 131,000 citizens; or 26,200 using the Census data of average 5

persons per household. LEC is expecting supply from Cote dIvoire of about 8MVA. This is

taken into account in the plan preparation.

The following Schedule shows the towns and county capital, their populations and expected

numbers of customer connections by 2030. The schedule was adapted from the 2008 National

Census. The number of persons/household (5) and the population growth rate (2.1%pa), which

were obtained from the Preliminary Census Report 2008, are used to estimate customer

connections by 2030.


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Schedule of County Capitals and Other Towns For 33/66kV Grid Supply

City County 2008 Pop 2012 Pop

2030

Pop

# Customers

2030

Monrovia Montserrado 1,010,970 1,098,604 1,596,999 319,400

Ganta Nimba 41,106 44,669 64,934 12,987

Buchanan Grand bassa 34,270 37,241 54,135 10,827

Gbarnga Bong 34,046 36,997 53,781 10,756

Kakata Margibi 33,945 36,887 53,622 10,724

Voinjama Lofa 26,594 28,899 42,010 8,402

Zwedru*

Grand

Gedeh 23,903 25,975 37,759 7,552

Harbel Margibi 23,402 25,431 36,967 7,393

Pleebo* Maryland 22,963 24,954 36,274 7,255

Foya Lofa 19,522 21,214 30,838 6,168

Harper* Maryland 17,837 19,383 28,177 5,635

Greenville Sinoe 16,434 17,859 25,960 5,192

Tubmanburg Bomi 13,114 14,251 20,716 4,143

Sacleapea Nimba 12,117 13,167 19,141 3,828

Sanniquellie Nimba 11,415 12,404 18,032 3,606

Karnplay Nimba 7,664 8,328 12,107 2,421

River Gbeh River Gee 7,313 7,947 11,552 2,310

Zorzor Lofa 5,131 5,576 8,105 1,621

Cesstos City Cess River 2,578 2,801 4,072 814


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Fish Town* River Gee 3,328 3,616 5,257 1,051

Bensonville Montserrado 4,089 4,443 6,459 1,292

Robertsport Grand Cape 3,933 4,274 6,213 1,243

Bopolu Gbarpolu 2,908 3,160 4,594 919

Barclayville Grand Kru - -

TOTAL 1,378,582 1,498,082 2,177,704 435,541

*Already included in the Cross-Border Electrification Project.

In this indicative plan, it is proposed to have the following implementation periods for each

phase so a proper implementation would be handled:

Phase 1 2012 2015

Phase 2 2016 2020

Phase 3 2020 2025

Phase 4 2026 2030

4.2.Distribution System Development Philosophy

4.2.1. Medium Voltage for Distribution

The medium voltage for distribution Monrovia is 22kV. LEC has indicated that they intended to

retain this voltage level for the Greater Monrovia and to use 33kV for all other areas in the

country. Also LEC indicated that the 66kV subtransmission voltage would be limited to

Monrovia.

It is not clear why three levels of voltage are chosen within such a close range.

An investigation might be needed to justify another voltage level between the 22kV and 66kV

outside of Monrovia. For this report, the 22kV and 66kV combination is retained for Monrovia

while 33kV is used elsewhere.


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The proposed 22kV and 33kV Medium Voltage (MV) distribution lines would be fed from 66/22kV and 225/33kV CLSG substations respectively. Two capacities of distribution MV lines areproposed:

i) 3x150 AAC, for the main MV distribution linesii) 3x50 AAC, for spur distribution lines.

4.2.2. Low Voltage NetworkIt has been observed that while the low voltage distribution concept is the traditional practice in

the Liberian system, high voltage distribution system (HVDS) is being introduced. HVDS

presents a number of advantages principally in the area of lower technical losses. The downside

of it is that HVDS is more expensive, and therefore less connections could be achieved with the

available resources.

In discussions with LEC they indicated that the stealing of electricity was so rampant that

aggressive measures were being adopted to control it. One of the measures is to have zero LV

network and do all distribution at medium voltage. LEC believe that this approach, while it may

be at least 15% more expensive than the LV distribution, would justify the extra investment

through the curbing of theft and to a lesser extent, reduction of losses.

However it has been noted that the ongoing cross-border electrification project is being done

exclusively with low voltage distribution. Perhaps a HVDS may be used in the urban centers

where there is heavier loads and greater propensity to steal electricity and LV distribution

retained for rural areas. Given the significant additional costs of opting for only HDVS, and the

lesser impact that such approach could have in the rural areas (where other ways to reduce theft

could be used instead) , it would be important assess the alternative approach that is proposed

here before finalizing the plan for expanding the distribution system nation wide. Further

discussion on the strategies adopted in Liberia and in other developing countries can be found in

section 7.8.

High Voltage Distribution System (HVDS) has been used in this indicative plan for the

distribution of electricity throughout the system. It is expected that, by the time of

implementation, the policy direction would become clearer.

4.2.3. Metering and Customers ServiceIn principle, the current practice of split type prepayment metering would be used in the

connection of service to customers. However the specifications of the meters may be reviewed to

ensure the most current anti- tamper features are provided in the meter. Also all meters to be

used for larger customers(e.g. with consumption in excess of 500kWh (or perhaps 1000 kWh)


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per month, may be provided with GPRS modems to enable their remote reading, monitoring and

disconnection, an investment in this feature (about $60 apiece) can be easily justified for such

large customers. This metering system would facilitate the understanding of the load

characteristics and better demand side management measures could be proposed. In turn, this

will facilitate to defer large investments in generation capacity. Given these advantages, this isthe metering system being proposed.

With more and more connection of prepaid meters would come the need to aggressively establish

vending stations as close as possible to the customer. This would be achieved through the use of

third parties, especially operators of small businesses that run beyond normal working hours (e.g.

gas stations, pharmacies). Such vending stations have to be linked by wide area network.

4.3.Phased Development of Distribution Network

4.3.1. Phase 1 (2013- 2015): MonroviaCurrent (2012) demand for Monrovia is 8.7MW whilst the forecast 2015 is 75.1MW. The

incremental demand for T&D provision should be made accordingly so 66.4MW additional

generation can be absorbed and will result in an additional 86,648 customers.

In the LEC master Plan document the average cost for connecting one customer works out to be

$950.65. This was obtained from actual contracts and is considered reasonable to use in

calculating the distribution investment costs in the Plan. The estimated cost for the 86,648

customers is thus, $86,648 x 950,65 = $82.4Million.

4.3.2. Distribution Works Under Phase 2 Through Phase 4 (20162030)Phases 2 through 4 cover the remaining counties outside Monrovia. They also provide for natural

continuous works in Monrovia beyond 2015. It is recognized that implementation of these

Phases is contingent on the realization of the CLSG 225kV line project, complete with five grid

substations (4 confirmed in Project, one additional proposed). Under these phases grid supply is

expected to be extended to all county capitals and other selected towns.

The expected 35% customer coverage outside Monrovia by 2030 is determined as off.

2008 Census Pop of Liberia2008 Census Pop of Monrovia = 2,478,102 (3,489,072 -1,010,970)

Extrapolate by 2,1% p.a to 2030 gives 3,914,583 Divide by 5 persons per household gives 782,917 Multiply by 0.35, gives 274,021Customers to be connected by 2030.


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Deducting an estimated 26,200 (131,000/5) to be provided for in the cross-border electrification,

works out to a deficit of 247,821 customers to be provided for in the Plan outside Monrovia.

By 2030 the potential and existing customer population for Monrovia is similarly determined to

be 319,400. The target is 70% coverage or 223,580. Deducting 86,648 already provided for in

Phase 1works out to be 136,932 additional customers for Monrovia between 2016 and 2030. .

The associated investment costs are:

Monrovia 20162030 $136,932 x 950.65 = $130.2M

Outside Monrovia $247,821 x 950.65 = $ 235.6M

In the absence of any detailed work these costs are for now shared equally among Phases 2, 3

and 4.

Technical Assistance and Institutional capacity Development are provided at 2.5% and 10% ofthese costs respectively.

4.4. Implementation Arrangements

4.4.1. Appraisal Prior to Implementation of Each PhaseAs indicated earlier, no thorough economic, financial and technical appraisal has been done in

this conceptual plan preparation . Thus, as part of the implementation, each phase of the Energy

Access Plan, a full technical, financial, economic and environmental evaluation would have to bedone. This would ensure that the project would remain viable even with changes in variables

such as in consumption per capacity, cost of electricity, macro-economic indicators such as

inflation, GDP etc. Also such appraisals would take into account changes in technology and

construction practice as well as determine more accurate costing for the projects.

4.4.2. Project Packaging

For procurement the distribution component may be divided into packages as proposed below:

Package Activity Procurement Method

22 kV and 33kV lines Supply& Erect ICB


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Distribution Substations Supply& Erect ICB

Metering Hardware Supply ICB

Low voltage lines/service

connect

Installation Only NCB

Restrictions may be applied in the bidding documents to ensure that no bidder is awarded a

combination of Packages that may be considered undesirable. Beyond Phase 1 the projects may

as well be packaged by geographic area for management convenience during construction.

4.4.3. Project ManagementAs for the case of the expansion of the transmission network, it is proposed that LEC capabilitiesare enhance in order to be able to properly handling of project procurement from tendering,

through evaluation, negotiation and contract signing.

LEC would be responsible for supervision during construction. In Phase 1 the Management

Consultant con support the implementation of the investments. For subsequent Phases, there

would be the need for technical assistance in the absence of Manitoba Hydro whose current

Contract would have expired.

4.4.4. Institutional Capacity DevelopmentThe need for extensive re construction of the Liberian electricity supply system has been well-

stated. What would be required to complement any such intervention would be the strengthening

of the LEC as an institution. This has begun with the appointment of a Management Consultant,

and will need to continue with a set of specific measures aimed to strengthen capacity of LECs

personnel and improve the attention to the customers and the quality of the service. These

measures are discussed in greater detail in sections 7.1., 7.5 and 7.6 of this document.

In sum, in further pursuit ofLECs strengthening, the following may be needed:

Staff training and development Improved Work Practices and Procedures

ICT systems (including corporate Wide area Network, CommercialManagement System (CMS) and Incident Resolution and ManagementSystem (IRMS))

Procurement of Construction Equipment, Measuring and Testing Equipment. Modern Offices


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An estimate of 12.5% of the proposed capital investment costs are proposed for this purpose.

4.5.Summary of Distribution Investment requirements

Phase Description

Cost

(Million US $)

Phase 1 Distribution Works Monrovia (20132015) $82.4

Phases 2-4 Distribution works Monrovia (20162023) $130.2

Phase 2: Distribution Works All Liberia (20162020) $78.5



Subtotal $448.1

Add 12.5% Institutional Capacity Development* $56.0

Add 10% for Physical and Financial Contingency $44.8

Total for Distribution Investment requirements $548.9M

*Includes Provision for Transmission as well.

5. Demand Supply Balance

5.1.Electricity Demand Projections.

The post-war power sector of Liberia is effectively divided into two segments; the Monrovia areaand the rest of Liberia. The greater Monrovia area currently has some utility service being

operated under a management contract with Manitoba Hydro International. For this segment

there is some data available from the four years of very limited operations. However, the limited

coverage and nature of power network operations in the greater Monrovia area has meant that

there is inadequate statistical information upon which customer characteristics can be derived as

a firm basis for demand projections. Then there is the rest of Liberia which has not had any


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public electricity supply for about two decades and therefore has neither electricity officials in

the field nor recent real-time data on customer characteristics or profile. Accordingly, all

demand forecasts for Liberia must be viewed to have much larger uncertainty than would

normally have been expected.

In 2008 the International Finance Corporation (IFC) projected, based on their willingness to pay

survey of 1000 households that the demand for electricity in Monrovia would come from 20% of

households being connected to the grid within two years. Thereafter the forecasts anticipated

400 additional connections a year until 2020. Demographic growth was projected to add 1.8%

annually to sector demand and economic growth was expected to add another 1.8% per annum.

In the period after this IFC demand projection was prepared the LEC has used more recent data

from its distribution operations to prepare new forecasts.

While recognizing the fundamental uncertainties of forecasting demand for electricity in Liberia

described above, there has been several recent demand projections for Liberia undertaken by the

Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) for the greater Monrovia area (2012), and for Liberia as a

whole, an analysis in the document The Options For The Development Of Liberias Energy

Sector (World Bank, 2011), and most recently a study on supply options by Norconsult (2012).

These forecasts assumed to varying degrees that the increase of demand will come from

increased in households connected but also from the connection to the grid of large commercial

and industrial consumers in and outside Monrovia, notably from the agriculture and mining

sectors. On the other hand, little attention is paid to the increase in demand served by off grid

means, except in the projections of the The Options ForThe Development Of Liberias Energy

Sector (World Bank, 2011). While projections for Monrovia are generally comparable in the

three studies, the projections for demand growth outside of the capital diverge significantly inthose studies, reflecting the differences in the underlying assumptions, especially after 2020.

The next paragraph summarizes the scenarios for demand growth that will be used in the rest of

the document, building on these various studies.

Three scenarios for demand growth associated with the on-grid expansion in the country are

presented here. They have been chosen to reflect the decision of the GoL of adopting an

ambitious plan to increase access that assumes the removal of any physical or financial

constraint. First, a high demand and low demand scenarios are defined, using the projections of

the The Options ForThe Development Of Liberias Energy Sector analysis for high and slow

growth, and then a third, expected scenario is developed, using the projections of Norconsult upto 2015/2016, and the ones from the unconstrained LEC analysis up to 2030.

The high demand scenario portrays a situation where LEC is able to attract all major industrial

and commercial customers into it customers base, where there are electricity is available from

either domestic or regional sources as needed, and the expansion of the network has ben

undertaken as planned. The expected scenario is one where no physical nor financial constraints


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hinder the expansion of the network, and electricity is available to meet the demand as it grows,

but in contrast to the first scenario, the evolution of effective demand although increasing at an

accelerated rate, shows a higher price elasticity, and this is reflect in the growth of effective

demand. Last, the low demand scenario is one where there is a significant growth in the

expansion of demand, but that growth is bounded by some constraints in the system, that couldbe financial or physical in nature, such as the difficulties to securing financing for the expansion

of the grid, or an actual growth of effective demand slower than planned, because high tariffs,

reflecting a fuel-based generation, dampen the growth of effective demand.

Adopted On-Grid Demand Projections

2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030

High demand growth 24 66 108.5 189.7 378.1

Low demand growth 24 30 36.0 103.5 159.2

Expected scenario 24 45.4 66.8 117.5 202.1

5.2.Supply projections

The LEC currently has 22 MW installed capacity, all diesel fueled high speed generators. The

effective supply however is about 16 MW after taking into consideration the non-availability of 1

or 2 MW for maintenance reasons, the operation of the generators at 80-85% of rated capacity

for maximum thermal efficiency and the spinning reserve requirement of 2 MW.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

On-Grid Demand Projection (MW) - (Excluding Off-Grid)

AFTEG

OtherGrids

AFTEG

Monrovia

Pessimistic

Growth


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The effective supply will increase from 16 MW to 24 MW when the World Bank/IDA HFO

project starts operation (3Q of 2014) and will reach 32 MW (dry season) or 76.8 MW (wet

season) when Mount Coffee becomes operational (2Q in 2015). The effective supply capacity

will increase by another 8 MW when the JICA HFO plants starts operation (end of 2015).

Accordingly from 2016 the effective supply would be 40 MW (dry season) and 84.8 MW (wetseason) until the WAPP CLSG interconnection commences operations, in 2018, and 18 MW are

added, bringing the total available capacity to 54.4 MW in the dry season and 99.2 MW in the

wet season .

5.3.Supply Options and Least-cost Generation Expansion Plan

The electricity supply sources available to Liberia to meet the shortfall include hydroelectric,

thermal, biomass and the option of regional interconnections. These options have different costs,

and also different lead times. A review of the most recent assessments of unit costs and relative

ranking of the alternative has been carried out in order to rank the plants by cost and establish an

order of preference, and the results are summarized in the table below.

The ranking of plants indicated by the two sources are consistent with each other except for the

ranking of the biomass plant (wood chips) and for the cost of the HFO plant. With respect to the

plant using wood chips, the figure quoted by the Norconsult study reflects the cost included in a

unsolicited proposal received by the Government, and therefore it needs to be seen an upperbound reference, which could be lower if such a project were tendered competitively. This is

why as a starting point for an estimation of the true levelized cost of this generation option, a

benchmarking cost of this type of technology is adopted for now, as a first estimation of the true

levelized cost. Further work through an independent assessment of the costs and benefits of such

plant is needed to produce a more exact figure. In the case of the HFO plant, the Norconsult

study report of 26 cents/kWh was obtained partly from Singapore prices and partly by applying a

0

20

4060

80

100

120

2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ao

Generation Capacity (MW) 2012-2018

Dry season Wet season


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rule-of-thumb approximation; energy costs from HFO plants are about 50% of the costs from a

high speed diesel plant considering the Singapore reference. In contrast, the second column uses

the most recent estimation from HFO, as reported by LEC based on its interaction with private

firms providers of HFO in Liberia: it is expected that the cost of HFO would lead to 25% savings

compared to the cost of the diesel. Using the latest report of fuel cost for generation in the Aprilmonthly report of LEC, the cost for diesel based generation is 42.03 cents/kWh, which thus will

yield a cost of 31cents/kwH for HFO.

The ranking of the plants based on levelized cost having been established in principle, the least-

cost generation expansion plan for Liberia is to seek to exploit these resources in the order of

preference recognizing the capacity available from that source and the realistic lead time for

bringing that source into actual production. Because of this dual dimension of any supply

option, it is recommended that an action plan for the short term includes not only the preparation

of those projects that will be implemented first, but also -- and with the same order of priority--

actions needed to assess or prepare generation options that would come on stream at a later date.

Preparing an achievable least-cost generation expansion plan for Liberia requires an estimate of

the realistic total lead time required for each plant as indicated on the table above. This must

consider the realistic duration for completing the following sets of activities: a) Studies(Financial

Study, EIA etc), project definition, design and documentation, b) engagement with private

sector if the Government wants to develop generation capacity led by private sector to leverage

public resources and use private sector expertise to improve sector performance; c) securing

financing, executive & legislative approvals, d) Off-shore Manufacturing, e) Shipment &

Delivery, and f) Erection/Installation.

The following table shows the summarized order of preference which is based solely on the total

generation levelized cost of the various plants and indicating their estimated lead times.

Supply Source Total Levelised

generation CostInstalled Capacity

Total Est.

Lead-Time


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(US Cents.kWh) (MW) (Months)

Norconsult

Update

as of

June

2012

Mount Coffee (Hydro) 11 16 10 66 36 54

WAPP-CLSG 11 80 60

BRE Wood Chips (Biomass) 24 11-13 20-36 18

SP-1B & 2 (Hydro) 16 23 16 23 198 72

Mano (Hydro) 16 23 90 (50) 84

HFO Plants (WB, JICA,

Government)26 31 30 24

High Speed Diesel (Existing) (LEC

April 2012)42 42.03 22

Diesel (Leasing) (Additional cost

due to premium mobility and

operation)

>42.03 12

Source: Based on Geoscience (1998); Ciampiatti (2009); Stanley Consultants (2008); ESMAP (2007); LECs

Monthly Report (April 2012).

5.4.Demand-Supply gap

Looking at supply demand graphs, one will notice there is a gap of 8 MW from the 2013, which

increases in 2014 to 21.4 MW. Once the Mount Coffee plant becomes operational in 2015, there

is no supply gap during the wet season except for a small one2.3MW-- in 2017, but the gap

continues to increase during the dry season, until it reaches a peak of 47 MW in 2017, and

persists still in 2018 with a gap of 42.8MW, despite the electricity imported from WAPP. This

supply deficit is finally removed in 2019 when the other hydro plants (eg SP-1B &2) commenceoperation.


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The lead time comparison on the above table shows that the leasing or rental of diesel generators

is the quickest way to address any demand-supply gaps. This option is however expensive and

has already been discarded by the Minister as contradicting the decision of Government to avoid

diesel based alternatives.

The ranking of supply options shows that hydroplants in Liberias resource portfolio, the CLSG

regional transmission line, and the options to develop biomass plants using domestic inputs are a

major part ofthe countrys electricity supply strategy, both to expand the electricity available to

the population and as a mean to bring down the cost of generation, and thus of tariffs to endusers. Some of these projects are already under way, ie. the rehabilitation of Mount Coffee and

the connection to the CLSG regional transmission line, but given the potential benefits for the

country, it is recommended to give a strong priority to launch the preparatory work needed to

assess and develop the other projects listed in the table.


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This said, given the lead time for the least cost options to come on stream, it is necessary in the

short term, whilst these preferred supply options are being developed, to consider the next best

options to address the supply gaps that will emerge as early as 2013.

A first step to reduce the supply gap could be the introduction of interruptible tariffs as an option

for commercial and industrial customers who probably have self generation capacity. They will

be offered electricity services at a discount on the understanding that their supply can be

interrupted during peak demand periods or when needed to prevent system overload. This

arrangement has two advantages; it gives the utility the means to reduce peak demand, thereby

postponing the need to invest into new generation capacity, and it also provide economic

incentives to medium and large users to connect to the national grid, helping to increase LECs

customer base. Based on preliminary estimation of the amount of electricity currently self-

generated in Liberia, it is estimated that such a strategy could help reducing the peak demand

between 2013 and 2015 by about 15-20 MW. This is particularly important in 2013, since short

of using leased generation (which has been discarded by the Government), no new generationcan be made available so quickly. To be successful, this approach to manage demand to address

the issue of a supply gap would need to be grounded on a pro-active and clear outreach to clients,

and on a good forecast of the timing when there will be capacity constraints.

Turning now again to the least cost options analysis for generation, HFO plants appear as the

next best option to address the supply gap in the short term, in addition to the management of

demand discussed in the previous paragraph. In this specific case, a faster than usual turnaround

could be achieved by piggy backing on all preparation studies already done for the 10MW WB

project. It will be necessary to update the studies if additional plants are brought into stream, but

this could be done in about 2 months time. Using the expected scenario for demand projections,the supply gap to be closed amounts ranges from about 21.4 MW in 2014 up to 47 MW of

effective supply during the dry season in 2017. Taking into account the need for reserves and the

capacity factor, this mean that about about 30 to 60 MW of additional capacity would be needed

between 2014 and 2017. These additional capacity is needed to complement the dry season

production of the Mount Coffee plant at least until the Via reservoir is constructed to enable the

firming up of the Mount Coffee generation.

5.5.Implementation arrangements for additional generation

The least-cost generation addition plan outlined above, that will enable Liberia meet its

electricity demand comprises the following plants: Mount Coffee hydro, WAPP-CLSG, St. Paul

hydro, Mano River hydro, WAPP Cross-border supply and HFO plants, of which three have

already been identified (Government; WB-LESEP Ad.Fin, and JICA). The recommended

implementation actions in respect of these projects are discussed below.


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i. Mount Coffee Hydro

The reconstruction of the Mount Coffee hydro plant is considered the least cost source

among all the supply options. Rehabilitation is currently underway with the financial

support of various donors including Norway, KfW, EIB and of the Government ofLiberia. This plant was originally commissioned to come on stream in 2016, but it

appears that the GoL is committed to accelerate the process and have the plant back into

operation in 2015. It is recommended that the study of the possible development of the

Via storage reservoir which will mitigate the drop in generation from Mount Coffee

during the dry season, should proceed at the same time but as a separate exercise so that

the construction of the reservoir, if found economically viable, could start as soon as

possible, but that this analysis does not further delay the reconstruction of the Mount

Coffee plant.

ii. St. Paul Hydro

The size of the power plants proposed for construction on the Saint Paul river are such

that this project, if implemented, would have a significant and positive impact on the long

term energy supply capability and security of supply especially in the period from 2020

to 2030. It is therefore recommended that the Government of Liberia commissions the

feasibility and other studies required to inform the decision on its future development. In

addition, the GOL may wish to consider taking the proactive steps needed to reserve or

acquire the target reservoir area in order to limit the disruption, obstacles and challenges

to the future development of these projects.

iii. Mano River Hydro

The Mano River is one of the hydroelectric power prospects included in the least-csot

plan. Although the generation facility associated with this hydro development would not

have as significant an impact as the developments on the St. Paul River, the Mano power

plant will make a contribution. The GOL should therefore work with the other members

of the Mano River Union to advance the preparation and development of the project.

iv. Biomass generation (Wood Chips)Based on the least cost analysis, it would be important for the Government to assess and

conduct a due diligence to determine whether or not there is enough availability of wood

chips in Liberia, whether and how could such plant become a viable proposal and at what

cost, and finally if the answers to the above are positive, to examine the potential to

tender competitively a biomass project to attract private investors with a project that

would be bankable and would be beneficial for the country as well as environmentally


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sustainable. At this point, there are more questions than answers, but given the

uncertainties on the fundamental of the projects, it is difficult to see that biomass

generation would take place in Liberia, unless the Government takes the lead in the

preparatory work to determine its viability.

v. WAPP-CLSG Regional Transmission Line

The WAPP-CLSG regional transmission line, which is under development has a major

and long term role to play in the provision of electricity services to the citizens of Liberia.

The facility will provide Liberian consumers with access to the more competitively

priced generation that is available from some of the other states in the sub-region. It is

also noted that without this facility, the growth of the power sector in Liberia will be

limited by either its indigenous energy sources or by the continued dependence on

expensive imported petroleum products for the generation of electricity.

The WAPP CLSG regional transmission line is also important for Liberia, to the extent

that it includes the construction of the Mount Coffee substation and of the line between

this substation and Monrovia. The Mount Coffee substation is a key element for the

Liberia power system and the CLSG transmission line since this will be the

interconnection point of the regional network with the Monrovia system, and it will

allow to evacuate the power from Mt. Coffee. This interconnection point will allow to

Monrovia, the largest load center, to meet its demand through power exchange with

neighboring countries in the short-term and also to absorb the potential domestic supply

that is generated outside of Monrovia. It is therefore important to ensure that the

substation in Mount Coffee is designed in order to accommodate (i) the reception of theCLSG regional transmission line, (ii) the connection with Mount Coffee hydro plant, and

(iii) the interconnection with the Monrovia power system.

The initial power technical power transfer is up to 149 MW and the available supply

generation in the line will depend on the Purchase Power Agreement that each

government negotiated. In the first phase, Cte dIvoire has already committed to make

available 83MW to the CLSG Transmission Line, Cte dIvoire has already committed to

put 83MW at the disposal of the CLSG, but the allocation among the three countries,

including Liberia will need to be negotiated. For reasons of supply security and minimumcost therefore, it is in the best interest of Liberia to enter into long term supply contracts

for supply over the CLSG. Fortunately, the lead time to the commissioning of the CLSG

is long enough for an interested power provider to make arrangements for an increased

level of supply. It is therefore recommended that the GoL and LEC begin discussions

with credible prospective suppliers, starting with those in Cote dIvoire, to explore


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opportunities for the purchase of additional power and seek commitments for long term

supply at the most competitive price.

vi. WAPP Cross-border

The ongoing WAPP cross-border project will provide electricity supply from Core

dIvoire to several Liberian towns and communities that are close to the border between

the two countries. The authorities in Liberia are encouraged to monitor the progress of

this work and take all actions necessary to ensure the timely execution of these works.

vii. HFO Plants

Of all the plants included in the least-cost expansion plan, the HFO plants are the ones

with the shortest lead time, and the lower up-front capital cost. So these are the plants

being relied upon to bring the quickest relief to the supply shortfall situation that is

foreseen. An analysis of the demand-supply gap has indicated that there would be a gap

of 30 to 60 MW between 2014 and 2017, and there has been an initial analysis of how to

bring in additional 30 MW, either at once or sequentially. This additional generation

capacity could benefit from the preparatory work that is being done now for the 10 MW

WB-HFO plant. It could be undertaken as an IPP led by the private sector, thereby

freeing public resources to be made available for investment in transmission and

distribution. Alternatively, this additional capacity could be procured by scaling up the

current publicly financed project, but this option will give up the possibility of tapping on

to private sector financing, and will use instead public resources with a high opportunity

cost. Both options are currently being analyzed by the Government.

6. Fuel Supply Infrastructure

Given the contribution of the fuel to the cost of electricity and given the decision of the GoL to

develop additional thermal generation capacity in the near future to meet the increasing demand

for electricity that is expected to increase at an accelerated pace over the next decades, it

becomes critical for the Government to secure reliable supply of fuel in sufficient quantities, at

the more competitive price than what is available today in Liberia. These efforts of the

Government in the short term complement the longer term agenda of shifting the generation mix

towards other more cost efficient sources of Energy.

Achieving this objective would require addressing several issues, notably:

Fuel pricing

Commercial arrangements for importing, storing and transporting the fuel


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Infrastructure for importing, storing and transporting the fuel

Role of the Government to lead this process, and ensure that the final solutions adopted

will enlist an active private participation, while avoiding the creation of monopolies in

the commercialization of such a critical input and associated infrastructure.

The paragraphs below give an overview of some of the elements that need to be considered to

address each of these aspects, and a more detailed analysis of possible solutions can be found in

a review of the fuel delivery infrastructure undertaken by OPTEC Energy Services of Canada in

March 2011 as part of a feasibility study for the supply of HFO to Monrovia for electricity

generation.

6.1.Supply Price for Grid-Electricity

The electricity price build-up as reported by LEC (ref. LEC Business Plan, March 2011 and

financial results for Jul2010-Jun2011) and summarized on the table below indicates that fuel

costs were initially expected to contribute about 78% of the total cost of supply excluding

depreciation charges.

Description of Cost Component

Business Plan (March2011)

Actuals

c/kWh

% of Budget

(excl. Dep.)

% of

Actuals

Jul10-Jun11

Depreciation Charge 7 - -

Fuel Cost 32 78% 80%

O&M Costs 5 12% 9%

Administrative Charge 4 10 11%

Total 48 100% 100%


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The financial results for July2010June2011 show that actual fuel costs for the period

contributed 80% of total. The current price for grid-supplied electricity in Liberia is reported t

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Energy Update Liberia

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