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ENI Italian Energy 2012-2015 Strategy

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Page 1: ENI Italian Energy 2012-2015 Strategy

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en i .com

2012-2015 Strategy

15 March 2012

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en i: well-positioned to deliver a decade of sustainable growth

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 12 0 1 1

   E   &   P

Confirmed growth profile

Start-up of giants with long plateau

Increased investment in exploration

Libya restart

Strengthenedresource base

A decade of sustainablegrowth

   G   &   P Recover profitability in a difficult market

Consolidate competitiveness of supply

Focus on key segments and markets

Strong positionto benefit frommarketrecovery

   R   &   M 

   C   h  e  m

   i  c  a   l  s Continued efficiency

Integration of refinery system,consolidation of marketing

Refocusing chemicals portfolio onadded-value products

Selectivepresence inR&M

Competitiveplayer inChemicals

Streamlinedoperations

Improvedsupply

Growth in keymarkets

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E&P: consistent exploration success ...

Mamba South(Mozambique)

Skrugard (Norway)

Hadrian Nord (US-GOM)

Jangkrik NE (Indonesia)

Lira 1 (Angola)

Gye Nyame 1 (Ghana)

Sangos-Ngoma

(Angola)

Kitan (JPDA)

Culzean (UK)

Sankofa (Ghana)

Perla (Venezuela)

Cabaca Norte (Angola) Area D (Libya)

Heidelberg (US)

Perla (Venezuela)

Jangkrik (Indonesia)

Sankofa (Ghana) Cabaca Sud Est

Mpungi (Angola)

2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 1

~ 4 b n b o e o f

n ew

exp lo ra t i on

resources

New exploration resources(mboe)

Total resources(bboe)

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... drives organic growth, in the plan period...

Adjusting for force majeure in Libya in 2012 (180k boe/d)CAGR

Brent 2011-13: 90 USD/bl; 2014-15: 85 USD/bl

> 3 % CA GR 2 0 1 1 - 1 5

in a h igh er o i l p r i ce scenar io

Strong contribution fromexploration successes

Confirmed focus on giant,conventional projects

Increased exposure to oil

Best-in-class operating costs

IRR of new projects over 20%2011 2015

k b oe/ d

Pr o d u c t i on g r o w t h

> 3 % ad j

Russia and Caspian

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa and ME

Far EastLatin America

Europe and North America

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Pr o d u c t i on g r o w t h

k b oe/ d

Russia and Caspian

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa and ME

Far East

Latin America

Europe and North America

~ 3 %

2015 2021

2 0 1 5 - 2 1 CA GR in c rea se d f r o m 2 % t o 3 %

Price scenario: 85$/bbl 2015; +2%/year afterwards

Resilient contribution driven by Barents Sea

Junin 5 & Perla FF developments

Major contribution from Angola Block 15/06and Mozambique, additional explorationpotential

Yamal giants, Kashagan ramp up, furtherpotential from Kashagan development

... and beyond

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G&P: positioned to tackle difficult short term scenario...

* Adjusted for outcome of renegotiations and Libya impact

Marke t i ng : f ac ing d i f f i cu l t scenar i o Slower than expected demand

growth

Spot/LT differential remainssignificant in 2012

e n i 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 s t r a t e g y

Leverage on more competitive

supply portfolio to grow marketshare in Italy and key Europeanmarkets

Further increase exposure to moreresilient retail segment

Capture benefits of marketvolatility through enhanced tradingcapabilities

Gradu a l recovery inp ro f i t ab i l i t y

TMPC, TTPC, Greenstream, BSPC,other regulated business

Stable profitability and cash flowthroughout the plan

Snam

TAG/TENP/Transitgas

Othe r

G& P

M ar ke t i ng

Regula ted/  Low - r i s kbus iness

Assetdisposed/

to be disposed

TMPC, TTPC, Greenstream, BSPC,other regulated business

Stable profitability and cash flowthroughout the plan

2011 EB I TDA p ro - fo rm a ad jus ted*(€ mln)

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… and capture medium-term recovery opportunities

European dem and r ecove ry : St r ong Eu ropean m arke t p os it i on

Consolidated brand

Expertise in innovative offering structure

Divers i f ied and f lex ib le supp lyp o r t f o l i o

Competitive cost position in tightenedmarket

Increased equity gas supply 

N e w p r o f i t o p p o r t u n i t i e s

Enhanced LNG presence

Cross-regional and cross-commodities

synergies in trading

EU 27 (b cm)

- 8 %

~ 1 8 %

Economic growth Energy/environmental policies

T igh ten ing supp l y capaci t y :

Increasing Far East demand Increasing MENA domestic gas consumption Declining European domestic production Limited LNG capacity for the Atlantic basin

Long- te rm scenar i o

Wel l posi t i oned to cap tu r ea d d it i o n a l g r o w t h

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R&M: increasing efficiency and complexity

Refining: a cyclical business in a difficult

short term scenario Increased focus on complexity and efficiency

to benefit from potential scenario recovery

EST completion by 2012

Increased system integration

Exploit flexibility and asset-backed trading

Opt im isa t i on

& e f f i c iency

+ € 4 00 m

Marketing: confirming profitability

Consolidation of Italian leadership

Network enhancement and automation

Expansion of non-oil activities

I t a l ia n r e ta i l

m a r k et sh a r e> 3 0 %

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Chemicals: a new turnaround strategy

More e f f i c ien tand i n teg ra ted Savings >€200m by 2015

Enhancedd i f f e ren ta t i on

Increase revenues fromadded value productsfrom <30% to >40%

I n t e r n at i o n alexpans ion

> 10% of revenues fromoutside Europe by 2015

Licensing, productionalliances/JVs

Rega in ingcompe t i t i venessw i t h i n ch e m ica l s

bus iness

2 0 1 5 t a r g et

> € 4 0 0 m o f EBI T a tconstan t scena r io

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10 

GalpSnam

Separation by September 2013

Process evaluated on 3 criteria:

Benefits to en i shareholders

Protection of the interests of Snamshareholders

Consolidation of en i balance sheet

Non-core shareholding

High potential business, with excitingpositions in Brazil, Mozambique

Upside from market value recovery

enhanced value creation opportunities from non-core listed assets

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en i .com

Exploration & Production

Claudio Descalzi

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12 

Strong focus on exploration strategy and execution Fast time-to-market of exploration discoveries

Rapid and efficient development of project pipeline

Effective reservoir management and production

optimization activities

Leading-edge technology to fight depletion of giant fields

Consolidate and deploy competencies and technology

Increase direct control of assets through operatorship

Maintain geographical diversification

Phase financial exposure in large-scale, complex projects

Org a n i c g ro w t h &va lue c rea t ion

Manag ingu n c e r t a i n t i e s

E&P strategic goals and drivers

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13 

Dr i l l ed w e l l s

HSE results

Lost t im e i n j u ry f r equency ra te *

* n. of LTI/Mln of worked hours

Company Contractor Global

Avg 2007-2010 2011

0.66

0.770.73

0.41 0.42 0.41

2005 2008 2011

0.00 0.000.00

250

327

437

Drilled wells per year

Blow-out frequency(per thousand)

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14 

Materiality and

cost-effectiveness

Short time to

market

Focus on

emerging basins

W est A f r i ca

Transform margin play in Ghana, Togo,

Liberia

Pre-salt play in Angola, Congo, RDC

Near f i e l d exp lo r a t i on

East A f r ica Gas (Mozam bique)  

Exploit full potential of tertiaryplays in the Rovuma basin

B ar en t s Sea ( No r w ay )

Large upside GoM (USA)  

P ac i f i c gas ( I ndones ia and A us t r a l i a )

High potential in profitable gasmarket

Main ta in ing leade rsh ip on d i scove red vo lum es

a n d u n i t e x p l o rat i o n c os t s

Dr i ve rs

Fontier high potential Proven basins/near field

exploration objectives

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15 

focus on exploration: Norway - Barents sea

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 w o r k p r o g r am

Resources upside in the area: 500mboe

8 wells in the Barents Sea: €220mequity investments

Synerg ies

Havis/Skrugard hub servicing 50km radius

Onshore services

Add i t i ona l p rospect i v i t y

12 blocks for an acreage of 4,600sqkm

With Statoil, maintain leadershipposition in the next round

Discover ies

500 Mbbl of recoverable oil inSkrugard and Havis

PL226

PL533

PL529

PL201PL489

PL229Goliat

PL608 PL532Sk r u g a r d / Hav i s

PL657

H a v is / Sk r u g a r d h u b  

operated

not operated

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16 

Area 4

M a m b aN o r t h 1

Ter t i a ryp rovengas p lay

M a m b aNor th E as t 1

M a m b aS ou th 1

focus on exploration: Mozambique – Rovuma basin

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 w o r k p r o g r am

Up to 8 exploration and appraisalwells

2,000 sqkm of 3D and 2,100 sqkm2D seismic

€400m expected equityinvestments

Synerg ies

Unitization of Mamba complex withArea 1

Evaluation of additional stand-alone resources in Area 4

Mamba d i scove ry

Gas in place estimate at 30 Tcf  High gas quality

Expected rate in productionconfiguration up to 140 mmsfcdper well

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17 

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 w o r k p r o g r am

Resources upside: ~500 Mboe

24 wells: €300m equity investments

Synerg ies

Indonesia: Jangkrik hub

Australia: upstream developmentand synergies with LNG facilities

Add i t i ona l p rospec t i v i t y

16,000 sqkm of new acreageadded in 2011

Discover ies

~700 Mboe already discovered inAustralia and Indonesia

en i assets New acreage

BUKAT/ BULUNGAN 

Nor th Gana l

JANGKRI K JANGKRI K NE 

A r gun i 1

N T/ P6 8 -Heron

N T/ 4 8 -EvansShoal

focus on exploration: Pacific Area

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18 

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5

2012-152011-14

b ln €

5 .5

3 .6

+ ~ 5 0 %

By a rea By t ype

exploration capex

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19 

* P1 + P2 + P3 + contingent resources + risked exploration

b ln boe

Bren t($/boe) 

1 1 1

L i fe index(years)

5 0

2P reserves Other reserves/resources

9 0 % w i t h f i r st o i l i n p r od u ct i o ni n < 8 y e ar s

Mozamb ique

32 .131.0

7 9

4 7

Tota l resour ces*2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 1d iscover ies

time to market: from resources to production…

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20 

Main s ta r t - ups

4 -y e a r p l an s t a r t - u p s : ~ 7 0 0 k b o e d @ 2 0 1 5

S ambur skoyeY a r o / Y akh inskoye

Ur engoskoye

ALNGKizomba Sat . Ph.1

W es t Hub

Per la EPJun in 5 EP

Jangk r i k

Ja uKuta i Bas in

CBM FF

Sk r u g a r d / H a v is

East Hu b

Great Hadr ianarea

2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 5 Hubs

Jasm ineW.Frank l in Ph.2

Culzean

OPL 245 FFBrass LNG

Kashagan EP

Goliat

… through identified and solid start-ups

YevoSevero

Beyond 2015

Perla FFJun in 5 FF

ML ECAFC

El Merk

W a facompr ess ion

Mamba

S anko faGye Nyame

Hadr i an

S ou th

Kashagan Ph.2Karachaganak Ph.3

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21 

Yamal Nenets region: new gas giants

Samburgskoye and Urengoskoyesanctioned in 2011

GSA signed with Gazprom

Samburgskoye start up confirmed 2012

Samburgskoye

UrengoskoyeSevero- Chaselskoye

Yaro-Yakhinskoye

Sambu rgskoye Produc t i on ( k boed , equ i t y )

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22 

Barents Sea: Goliat first oil development

Barent s Sea

First oil development in the Barents Sea

Subsea templates installation campaigncompleted in 2011 and ready for drilling

FPSO delivery in 2013

Produc t i on ( kboed , equ i t y )Gol iat

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23 

Kashagan

Karachaganak

Kashagan EP 

Construction completion and

commissioning ongoing

Tranches 1&2 progress for KCP:

99%, in line with commercial

production start up within 2012 

Karachaganak

Previous development phases

currently producing >100 kboed

equity

Agreed settlement with Republic of 

Kazakhstan

Kazakhs tan Produc t i on ( k boed , equ i t y )

Kazakhstan: near-term growth and significant long-term potential

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24 

Venezuela: super giants with long-term plateau

Junín-5Perla Perla

Gas Sales Agreement and FID for Phase

1 achieved in 2011

Phase 1: construction and installation of 

three offshore platforms, 60-km pipeline

to shore, onshore processing facility

Junìn EP

Finalizing all the major engineering

contracts

Seeking anticipated early production in

2012, using synergies with PDVSAexisting facilities

Venezue la Produc t i on ( k boed , equ i t y )

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25 

Sub-Saharan: legacy area with further growth prospects

Development of Sangos, Ngoma, Cinguvu

fields (1,250-1,450m water depth)

16 wells (10 producers, 6 injectors)

First drilling campaign: ongoing

FPSO will be delivered in 1Q 2014 

* exploration potential excluded

B lo ck 1 5 / 0 6 W e st H u b Pr o d u c t i o n * ( k b o e d, e q u it y )

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26 

investment plan

Onshore

Offshore

Deepwater

By t ype

N. Africa/M. East America

Europe Asia Pacific

Central Asia/Russia West Africa

By area

b ln €

Development

Exploration

Other 

Capex 2012 -2015

Mozambique

44 .8

39 .1

+ 1 4 %

1.83.6

5.5

1.7

3.1

33.7 37.6

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27 

Bren t( $ / b oe)

2012/2013 2014/2015 2015

9 0 8 5 + 2 %

> 3 %~ 3 %

CAGR

Or g a n i c p r o d u ct i o n g r o w t h

Strong productiongrowth of over 3% ayear to 2015 adjustedfor Libya in 2011

Resilient to oil priceincreases: 2011-2015CAGR at 100$/bbl ~3%

Long-term growth targetraised from ~2% to~3%

our commitment: production

New productionLibya force majeure

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our commitment: value

Sol id cash genera t ion

90

100

110

120

2010 2015

NPV 2P by ar eas

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & America Asia & Pacific

North Africa

CF/ b o e ( % )

Bren t avg

($/boe)

Cash f low

8 5 8 5

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en i .com

Gas & Power

Umberto Vergine

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European gas market: a difficult short term environment…

Pers i st i ng ove r supp ly i n Eu rope i n t h e nea r t e rm

Spot -LT p r ice d i f f e ren t ia l rem a ins sign i f i can t

Con t i nu ing com pe t i t i ve p r essu re

S upp ly Demand

Weak economic situation inEurope impacting industrialclients

Increased competition inpowergen from renewablesources

Relatively stable demand fromresidential customers

Increasing capacity fromRussia (North Stream)

Availability of lower-pricedmake up gas

No additional LNG capacity

from Qatar

Continued domestic productiondecrease

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... gradually rebalancing in the medium term 

Prog ressi ve t i gh ten ing i n Eu ropean m arke t t o 2015

Fu r t h e r m a r k e t i m p r o v e m e n t b e y on d

Am ericas Paci f ic Basin

Europe

Demand escalation inemerging markets (+89bcm)

New high-cost

liquefaction capacity fromAustralia (+15 bcm) fullyabsorbed in the region

Premium prices attractsupply from Atlanticbasin

Demand recovery (+60bcm 2015vs. 2011)

Domestic production decline (-17bcm)

Marginal shale gas contribution

Increased interconnectivity opensnew market opportunities (11

new projects)

North Americanproduction continues toexpand

Effect of North

American exportslimited and subject toregulatory uncertainty

Increasing LatinAmerican demand forspot LNG

Mena

Increasing domesticconsumption in North Africa

Qatari production at 2011 levels

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32 

   O   b   j  e  c   t   i  v  e

• Alignmentbetween en i  cost positionand average

costs of supplyin the market

   I  m

  p   l  e  m  e

  n   t  a   t   i  o  n

• Negotiation of market-likeprices in long-

term contractprice revisions

• Improved andfasterresponsivenessto market

changes

• Reduction of minimumvolumes,

possibility toreopennegotiations if required

• Founda t i on fo rc o m p e t i t i v epos it i on ing i nt h e m a r k e t

Pr ice F lex ib i l i t yMa rke t

re f l ec t i v i t y

en i strategy: building on a more competitive supply portfolio …

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… to grow sales to business customers…

Conso l ida t ion o f lead ingpos i t i on i n Eu rope

+18%

72

85

B2B vo lum e increase

(bcm/y)•

Dedicated and capillary direct salesforce to grow position in Italy and keyEuropean countries

• Tailor made offers for differentsegments

• Energy intensive customers Multi-country approach

Flexible contractual structures

Risk management services

Market reflective pricing

• Small and medium enterprises

Specific offers to reflect marketsegmentation

High quality post-sale service

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... and increase exposure to the retail segment

I n c reasing pene t ra t i onin to m o re resi l i en t

c u st o m e r s e g m e n t s

Reta i l cus tomer s

(mln)

• Larger retail presence in Italy andEurope

Organic growth Selected M&A opportunities

• Well-proven commercial mix

Single brand identity Distinctive product portfolio Customer driven innovation

Competitive cost to serve

• Well-balanced sales channels

Agents Teleselling iweb en i energy stores

• Best In Class program ongoing

Marketing & IT innovation Communication & brand awareness Customer care operations

+28%

9.4

12

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en i .com

Financial Outlook

Alessandro Bernini, CFO

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37 

Snam deconsolidation: a resulting strong capital structure

b ln €

Ne t deb t

en i D/E 0.46x

Snam deconsolidation 0.30x

Including cash-in <0.20x

b ln €

en i65.3

Snam

15 .4

Capi ta l em ployed

en i ROACE 9.8%

Snam deconsolidation 10.4%

Including cash-in 11.4%

Mkt va lue o fen i ’ s s take

6 .9

* data at year-end 2011

en i

9 .9

Snam

11 .2

M k t v a l u eo f en i ’ ss t a k e

6 .9

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2012-2015 capex: supporting stronger growth

59 .6

44.7

7.2

2.82.5

2.30.5

6.7

-1.1

53 .3

39.1

7.5

2.92.41.4

E&PG&PR&MSaipemOthers

2011-14capex plan

Forexeffect

E&P Others 2012-15capex plan

Mozambique

OPL245

JangkrikSkrugard/Havis

Snam

Europe/NorthAmerica

LatamFarEast

NorthAfrica/ME

SubSahara

Russia/

Caspian

Uncom-mited

Committed

b ln €

Snam

Snam

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39 

selective capex plan

G& P R&M Chem icals

Focus on p ro j ect s f o r i n teg ra t i on , e f f i ci ency and ene rgy sav ing Ta r g e t e d i n v e st m e n t t o b o o st o r g a n i c g r ow t h i n e x i s t i n g / n e w

pr o f i t ab le bus inesses

Internationaltransport

0.1

Snam

6.2

Refining

1.9

Marketing

0.9

Marketing

0.9

To ta l €7 .2 b ln Tota l €2 .8 b ln To ta l €1 .6 b ln

Greenchemical

0.2

New

initiatives0.8

Stay inbusiness

0.4

Efficiency0.2

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40 

efficiency programme

Almost €600m of savings achieved in 2011

4-year target increased by €600m, mainly in

R&M and Chemicals

E&P 11%

G&P 6%

R&M 11%

Chemicals

20%

E&C3%

Corporate& others49%

2004-05achievements

2006-11achievements

2012-15target

b ln €

2004-05 2006-11 2004-15

0.3

3.1

1.6

5 .0

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41 

increasing cash flow to support investments and reduce debt

* @ 90$/bl in 2012-13; 85$/bl in 2014-15

Organic cash-flow more

than covers capex

requirements

Net debt to equity <40%

within the plan period atconstant perimeter

Additional cash-inflows

expected from disposals

Impact of Snam

deconsolidation on free

cash-flow broadly neutral

2 0 1 2 - 1 5 c a sh f l o w *

b ln €

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42 

a sustainable dividend policy

2 0 1 1 : d iv i d en d + 4 % i n l i n e w i t h o u r p o li cy

Div id e n d p o l ic y o f g ro w t h i n l in e w i t h i n f l a t i o n

s u st a i n a b le t h r o u g h o u t t h e f o u r - y e ar p l a n

Con f i rmed

d iv idend

po l icy

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en i .com

Closing remarks

Paolo Scaroni, CEO

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entering a new growth phase

E& P

A decade o f f as te r , sus ta inab le g row th

Raised production targets to 2015 and beyond• Increased exploration effort in highly promising basins

G& P

Conso l ida t ion o f lead ing pos i t ion in Eur ope

• Improved competitiveness of supply

• Medium-term recovery leveraging on secular gas demand growth

R& MChem

Re st r u c t u r i n g p o t e n t i a l

• Continuous focus on efficiencies

• Profit enhancement through integration, innovation and portfolio refocusing

Po ten t ia l va lue crea t ion f rom d isposa ls


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