Enrollment Expansion Phase II - 2015€¦ · Enrollment Expansion Phase II - 2015. Board Meeting....

Enrollment Expansion Phase II - 2015

Board MeetingNovember 16, 2015

Lower Merion School District

Enrollment Expansion Project Concepts – Phase II

Tonight’s Topics• Enrollment Projections (Revised)• Cost of Building New Classrooms• Immediate Needs • Recommendation:

Implement Strategies to get through 2016-17

Spend Time to Develop a Deliberate Plan

Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

Lower Merion School District Board of DirectorsNovember 16, 2015

Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

UPDATED for 2015-16

Findings From the Study in April

The Lower Merion School District is one of the top public school districts in Pennsylvania and the Philadelphia region. It is a magnet for families looking for quality education, highly regarded municipal services, and a very accessible location to downtown Philadelphia and other employment centers.

Three Identifiable Factors for Recent Growth:1. A major shift in the amount of families choosing private school

versus public school2. More public school students are originating out of existing

multifamily developments (apartment rentals)3. Home sales have increased and generated more incoming students

over outgoing students

Conclusions in April

Growth will continue – there are too many new students in the district for a sudden turnaround Current trends are also expected to continue, but there are

additional growth pressures ahead – new construction and the popularity of multifamily apartment rentals Under the recommended scenario:

The district grows by another 1,250 students over the next 10 years Growth hits the High Schools the hardest – 1,000 students added Middle Schools also increase by 300 students Elementary Schools have almost peaked and will start declining again – 50

students lower over 10 years Not all buildings affected equally

Growth does peak, this is not an infinite scale of increase

Original Opt. 2 Projections vs. 2015-16 Actual Enrollment

Year District Total K-5 6-8 9-12

2015-16 (Actual) 8,341 3,830 1,843 2,668

2015-16 (Original Proj. – Option 2) 8,298 3,754 1,876 2,668

Difference +43 +76 -33 0

Percent +0.5% +2.0% -1.8% --

• The overall difference was underestimated, but still relatively close

• However, the Elementary School level was further underestimated and partly counterbalanced by an overestimated Middle School level.

Individual BuildingsOriginal Opt. 2 Projections vs. 2015-16 Actual Enrollment

YearBelmont Hills ES

CynwydES

Gladwyne ES

Merion ES

Penn Valley ES

Penn Wynne ES

2015-16 (Actual) 491 559 741 614 705 7202015-16 (Original Proj. – Option 2) 472 542 735 600 700 704

Difference +19 +17 +6 +14 +5 +16

YearBala

Cynwyd MSWelsh

Valley MSHarriton

HSLower

Merion HS

2015-16 (Actual) 866 977 1,225 1,4432015-16 (Original Proj. – Option 2) 884 992 1,223 1,445Difference -18 -15 +2 -2

• Each elementary school was underestimated, but the biggest gaps were still under 20 students.

• The bigger problem is that much of the underestimated counts came at the youngest grade levels, KG & 1st Grade

Progression Rates

School Year Birth-K* K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12

2010-11 0.706 1.350 1.041 1.044 1.036 1.026 1.046 1.039 1.025 1.086 1.030 1.036 1.0502011-10 0.684 1.423 1.053 1.046 1.044 1.051 1.031 1.027 1.027 1.087 1.009 1.024 1.0042012-11 0.774 1.458 1.050 1.029 1.028 1.044 1.050 1.051 1.037 1.093 1.010 1.020 1.006

2013-14 0.784 1.438 1.023 1.042 1.023 1.014 1.017 1.051 1.013 1.050 1.032 1.014 1.010

2014-15 0.811 1.383 1.044 1.071 1.031 1.036 1.037 1.002 0.997 1.068 0.993 0.991 1.017

2015-16 0.856 1.480 1.042 1.030 1.032 1.041 1.023 1.002 1.013 1.077 1.009 1.030 1.015

School Year Birth-K* K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12Original 6 Year Avg. 0.741 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016Updated 2015 6 Year Avg. 0.769 1.422 1.042 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.034 1.029 1.019 1.077 1.014 1.019 1.017Updated 2015 3 Year Avg. 0.817 1.434 1.037 1.048 1.029 1.030 1.026 1.018 1.008 1.065 1.012 1.011 1.014

Rates for the last 6 years

Average rates used for different models

The 3 Year Average Progression Rates provide a more realistic expectation of what to expect going forward, especially at the youngest grade levels.

Original Projections Compared to Updated Models

YearOriginal April

ProjUpdated 6 Yr

Prog ProjUpdated 3 Yr

Prog Proj2015-16 (actual) 8,341 8,341 8,3412016-17 8,468 8,555 8,5462017-18 8,713 8,814 8,8052018-19 8,891 9,017 9,0102019-20 8,994 9,153 9,1532020-21 9,141 9,337 9,3492021-22 9,251 9,500 9,5312022-23 9,341 9,632 9,6912023-24 9,338 9,660 9,7592024-25 9,301 9,665 9,810Total Change 2015-2024 960 1,324 1,469

The 3 Year Progression Projection Model is strongly recommended for planning purposes.

Recommendation

Given the results of the 2015-16 tenth day enrollment figures, the district should use the updated projection figures and apply a 3 year progression rate to the model. In terms of planning, these are safer projections because they reflect

the high growth rates of the youngest classes in recent years. However, it’s clear that the LMSD is continuing to grow at historic

levels and these projections should not be viewed as absolute limits – there are no guarantees. Contingency plans are recommended.

As Always… Demographic factors outlined in this study should be monitored

annually in order to be on top of any unexpected changes as well as confirmations. Another comprehensive study is suggested in two years given the dynamics of the LMSD.

Comparison of EnrollmentProjections

2015-2016 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21BH-1 491 474 487 485 475BH - 2 491 501 514 520 518 508BH-3 491 505 525 537 541 537

440

460

480

500

520

540

560 Belmont HillsPDE Cap = 600LMSD Cap = 55090 % LMSD = 495

98%

-1 = April 2015 Projection (with 2015 10th Day Enrollment)-2 = Updated Projection – 6 Year Average-3 = Updated Projection – 3 Year Average



Chart1

2015-20162015-2016559

2016-172016-17580.1464826914

2017-182017-18585.7030779915

2018-192018-19585.0525088237

2019-202019-20599.2745700555

2020-212020-21586.1652461353

PDE Cap = 700LMSD Cap = 63890% LMSD = 574

94%

CN-1

CN-2

CN-3

Cynwyd

559

559

550

576.5640375806

543

576.3309363979

529

568.7885246095

526

575.5795918699

554.2348176149

Belmont Hills ES

Belmont Hills ES (BHES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity

Half Day Kindergarten2501004080

1st Grade4251002288

2nd Grade4251002288

3rd Grade4251002392

4th Grade325752575

5th Grade42510025100

Additional Available Clrm.125252525

Building Capacity *22600548

*Based on 21 classrooms plus one more available classroom identified by Principal

Enrollments

2014 10-day Enrollment:468


MCPC Enrollment Projections Update Sept. 2015 (6 Yr Avg)

2018-19 Highest "Medium" Projected Enrollment:520520

2018-19 BHES Utilization Factor:87%95%

MCPC Enrollment Projections Update Oct. 2015 (3 Yr Avg)

2019-20 Highest Projected Enrollment:541541

2019-20 BHES Utilization Factor:90%99%

Cynwyd ES

Cynwyd ES (CES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity

Half Day Kindergarten2.55012540100

1st Grade52512522110

2nd Grade4251002288

3rd Grade52512523115

4th Grade52512525125

5th Grade42510025100

Building Capacity25.5700638

Enrollments





2016-17 CES Utilization Factor:82%90%



2019-20 CES Utilization Factor:86%94%

Gladwyne ES

Gladwyne ES (GES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade62515022132

2nd Grade62515022132

3rd Grade62515023138

4th Grade62515025150

5th Grade62515025150


Enrollments





2019-20 GES Utilization Factor:86%94%



2019-20 GES Utilization Factor:91%99%

Merion ES

Merion ES (MES) 2014-15 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade52512522110

2nd Grade52512522110

3rd Grade52512523115

4th Grade42510025100

5th Grade42510025100

Building Capacity25675615

Enrollments

2014-15 10-day Enrollment:568



2016-17 MES Utilization Factor:90%98%

Merion ES (MES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade52512522110

2nd Grade52512522110

3rd Grade52512523115

4th Grade52512525125

5th Grade52512525125

Building Capacity*27725665

* Vocal music is currently on a cart

Enrollments









Penn Valley ES

Penn Valley ES (PVES) 2014-15 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade62515022132

2nd Grade62515022132

3rd Grade52512523115

4th Grade52512525125

5th Grade42510025100

Additional Available Capacity125252525

Building Capacity29775709

Enrollments




2017-18 PVES Utilization Factor:91%100%

Penn Valley ES (PVES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade52512522110

2nd Grade62515022132

3rd Grade62515023138

4th Grade52512525125

5th Grade52512525125

Additional Available Clrm.125252525

Building Capacity *30800735

*Based on 29 classrooms plus one more available classroom identified by Principal

Enrollments









Penn Wynne ES

Penn Wynne ES (PWES) 2014-15 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade62515022132

2nd Grade62515022132

3rd Grade52512523115

4th Grade52512525125

5th Grade42510025100


Enrollments




2017-18 PWES Utilization Factor:93%102%

Penn Wynne ES (PWES) 2015-16 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD students per clrmLMSD Capacity


1st Grade62515022132

2nd Grade62515022132

3rd Grade62515023138

4th Grade42510025100

5th Grade62515025150


Enrollments









ES SUMMARY

-1ORGINAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS (with 10th Day Sep 15) pub Apr 2015, using 6 year avg progression rates.

-2ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ADJUSTED PROJECTED ENROLLMENT, "MEDIUM"'(Based on 2015-16 10th Day Enrollments) pub Sep 2015, using 6 year avg progression rates.

-3ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ADJUSTED PROJECTED ENROLLMENT, "MEDIUM"'(Based on 2015-16 10th Day Enrollments) 3 YEAR AVG PROG RATES published Oct 15

YEARBH-1BH - 2BH-3CN-1CN-2CN-3GL-1GL-2GL-3MR-1MR-2MR-3PV-1PV-2PV-3PW-1PW-2PW-3

2015-2016491491491559559559741741741614614614705705705720720720

2016-17474501505550577580740751757605619616694703706713748758

2017-18487514525543576586714742759602612608706715723720766788

2018-19485520537529569585715749776599611605685701715704761797

2019-20475518541526576599722756793603618611651663679700776823

2020-21508537554586733787609604668689758816

2021-22509540551591717777601601648675733802

2022-23482513547586703762602601669696724793

2023-24498530542580715775599598658685726795

2024-25502545718603602663690730799

HPE487520541550577599740756793605619616706715723720776823

PDE Cap600600600700700700875875875725725725825825825825825825

LMSD Cap550550550638638638802802802665665665757757757752752752

90% LMSD495574722599681677

red = Highest Projected Enrollment (HPE)

5 YEAR SUMMARY - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS (Using Sep 2015 Projections with 6 yr avg prog rates)

2015-16 "Medium" Proj. and Actual Enrollments Compared to September 2015 ES Capacities

K-5 Elementary School2015-16 "Medium" Projected Enrollments (April 2015)2015-16 10-day EnrollmentPDE Capacity Using 2015-16 10-day EnrollmentsLMSD Functional Capacity Using 2015 10-day Enrollments

CapacityUtilization FactorCapacityUtilization Factor

Belmont Hills ES47249160082%54890%

Cynwyd ES54255970080%63888%

Gladwyne ES73574187585%80292%

Merion ES60061472585%66592%

Penn Valley ES70070580088%73596%

Penn Wynne ES70472082587%75296%

AverageAverage

Elementary School Total37533830452584%414092%

2016-17 "Medium" Proj. Enrollments Compared to September 2015 ES Capacities

K-5 Elementary School * Identifies the Year the School is at it's Highest Projected Enrollment2016-17 "Medium" Projected Enrollments (April 2015)2016-17 Updated Projected Enrollments (Sept. 2015)PDE Capacity Using September 2015 Updated EnrollmentLMSD Functional Capacity Using September 2015 Updated Enrollment



Cynwyd ES *55057770082%63890%

Gladwyne ES74075187586%80294%

Merion ES *60561972585%66593%

Penn Valley ES69470382585%75793%

Penn Wynne ES71374882591%75299%

AverageAverage






Cynwyd ES54357670082%63890%

Gladwyne ES71474287585%80293%

Merion ES60261272584%66592%

Penn Valley ES *70671580089%73597%

Penn Wynne ES72076682593%752102%

AverageAverage





Belmont Hills ES *48552060087%55095%

Cynwyd ES52956970081%63889%

Gladwyne ES71574987586%80293%

Merion ES59961172584%66592%

Penn Valley ES68570182585%75793%

Penn Wynne ES70476182592%752101%

AverageAverage


2019-20 "Medium" Proj. Enrollments Compared to September 2015 ES Capacities (5-year Projection)




Cynwyd ES52657670082%63890%

Gladwyne ES *72275687586%80294%

Merion ES60361872585%66593%

Penn Valley ES65166382580%75788%

Penn Wynne ES *70077682594%752103%

AverageAverage


5 YEAR SUMMARY - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS (Using Oct 2015 Projections with 3 YR AVG PROG RATES)

2016-17 Projected Enrollments: Sept. 2015 6-Year Average Compared to Oct. 2015 3-Year Average

K-5 Elementary School Proj. Enrollment # in RED identifies the year the school is at it's Highest Projected Enrollment2016-17 "Medium" Projected Enrollments 6 Yr Avg (Sept. 2015)2016-17 Projected Enrollments 3 Year Avg (Oct. 2015)PDE Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)LMSD Functional Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)

2015 CapacityUtilization Factor (Target: 90%)2015 CapacityUtilization Factor (Target: 90%)

Belmont Hills ES50150560084%54892%157388%

Cynwyd ES57758070083%63891%166387%

Gladwyne ES75175787587%80294%285289%

Merion ES61961672585%66593%169089%

Penn Valley ES70370680088%73596%278590%

Penn Wynne ES74875882592%752101%485289%

AverageAverage

Elementary School Total3,8993922452586%414094%




Belmont Hills ES51452560088%54896%259888%

Cynwyd ES57658670084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES74275987587%80295%285289%

Merion ES61260872584%66591%169088%

Penn Valley ES71572380090%73598%381089%

Penn Wynne ES76678882596%752105%587790%

AverageAverage





Belmont Hills ES52053760090%54898%259890%

Cynwyd ES56958570084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES74977687589%80297%387788%

Merion ES61160572583%66591%169088%

Penn Valley ES70171580089%73597%381088%

Penn Wynne ES76179782597%752106%690288%

AverageAverage





Belmont Hills ES51854160090%54899%259890%

Cynwyd ES57659970086%63894%166390%

Gladwyne ES75679387591%80299%387790%

Merion ES61861172584%66592%169089%

Penn Valley ES66367980085%73592%176089%

Penn Wynne ES776823825100%752109%690291%

AverageAverage



K-5 Elementary School2020-21 "Medium" Projected Enrollments 6 Yr Avg (Sept. 2015)2020-21 Projected Enrollments 3 Year Avg (Oct. 2015)PDE Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)LMSD Functional Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)


Belmont Hills ES50853760090%54898%259890%

Cynwyd ES55458670084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES73378787590%80298%387790%

Merion ES60960472583%66591%169088%

Penn Valley ES66868980086%73594%278588%

Penn Wynne ES75881682599%752109%690290%

AverageAverage


&L&"-,Bold Italic"&14Comparison of Elementary School Enrollment Projections&Rdate printed: &D

&L&Z&F&RPage &P

ES SUMMARY

PDE Cap = 600LMSD Cap = 55090 % LMSD = 495

98%

BH-1

BH - 2

BH-3

Belmont Hills

ES CR Req


94%

CN-1

CN-2

CN-3

Cynwyd

Bala Cynwyd MS

99%


GL-1

GL-2

GL-3

Gladwyne

Welsh Valley MS


93%

MR-1

MR-2

MR-3

Merion

MS SUMMARY


94%

PV-1

PV-2

PV-3

Penn Valley

Harriton HS


109%

PW-1

PW-2

PW-3

Penn Wynne

Lower Merion HS

-1ORGINAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS (with 10th Day Sep 15) pub Apr 2015, using 6 year avg progression rates.

-2ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ADJUSTED PROJECTED ENROLLMENT, "MEDIUM"'(Based on 2015-16 10th Day Enrollments) pub Sep 2015, using 6 year avg progression rates.

-3ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ADJUSTED PROJECTED ENROLLMENT, "MEDIUM"'(Based on 2015-16 10th Day Enrollments) 3 YEAR AVG PROG RATES published Oct 15

YEARBH-1BH - 2BH-3CN-1CN-2CN-3GL-1GL-2GL-3MR-1MR-2MR-3PV-1PV-2PV-3PW-1PW-2PW-3

2015-2016491491491559559559741741741614614614705705705720720720

2016-17474501505550577580740751757605619616694703706713748758

2017-18487514525543576586714742759602612608706715723720766788

2018-19485520537529569585715749776599611605685701715704761797

2019-20475518541526576599722756793603618611651663679700776823

2020-21508537554586733787609604668689758816

2021-22509540551591717777601601648675733802

2022-23482513547586703762602601669696724793

2023-24498530542580715775599598658685726795

2024-25502545718603602663690730799

HPE487520541550577599740756793605619616706715723720776823

PDE Cap600600600700700700875875875725725725825825825825825825

LMSD Cap550550550638638638802802802665665665757757757752752752

90% LMSD495574722599681677

red = Highest Projected Enrollment (HPE)

5 YEAR SUMMARY - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS (Using Sep 2015 Projections with 6 yr avg prog rates)

2015-16 "Medium" Proj. and Actual Enrollments Compared to September 2015 ES Capacities

K-5 Elementary School2015-16 "Medium" Projected Enrollments (April 2015)2015-16 10-day EnrollmentPDE Capacity Using 2015-16 10-day EnrollmentsLMSD Functional Capacity Using 2015 10-day Enrollments



Cynwyd ES54255970080%63888%

Gladwyne ES73574187585%80292%

Merion ES60061472585%66592%

Penn Valley ES70070580088%73596%

Penn Wynne ES70472082587%75296%

AverageAverage






Cynwyd ES *55057770082%63890%

Gladwyne ES74075187586%80294%

Merion ES *60561972585%66593%

Penn Valley ES69470382585%75793%

Penn Wynne ES71374882591%75299%

AverageAverage






Cynwyd ES54357670082%63890%

Gladwyne ES71474287585%80293%

Merion ES60261272584%66592%

Penn Valley ES *70671580089%73597%

Penn Wynne ES72076682593%752102%

AverageAverage





Belmont Hills ES *48552060087%55095%

Cynwyd ES52956970081%63889%

Gladwyne ES71574987586%80293%

Merion ES59961172584%66592%

Penn Valley ES68570182585%75793%

Penn Wynne ES70476182592%752101%

AverageAverage


2019-20 "Medium" Proj. Enrollments Compared to September 2015 ES Capacities (5-year Projection)




Cynwyd ES52657670082%63890%

Gladwyne ES *72275687586%80294%

Merion ES60361872585%66593%

Penn Valley ES65166382580%75788%

Penn Wynne ES *70077682594%752103%

AverageAverage


5 YEAR SUMMARY - ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS (Using Oct 2015 Projections with 3 YR AVG PROG RATES)

2016-17 Projected Enrollments: Sept. 2015 6-Year Average Compared to Oct. 2015 3-Year Average= HPE

K-5 Elementary School Proj. Enrollment # in RED identifies the year the school is at it's Highest Projected Enrollment2016-17 "Medium" Projected Enrollments 6 Yr Avg (Sept. 2015)2016-17 Projected Enrollments 3 Year Avg (Oct. 2015)PDE Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)LMSD Functional Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)Summary of Seats Available

2015 CapacityUtilization Factor (Target: 90%)2015 CapacityUtilization Factor (Target: 90%)YEARBHCNGLMRPVPWTotal

Belmont Hills ES50150560084%54892%157388%2016-17626351746247359

Cynwyd ES57758070083%63891%166387%2017-18718078566991445

Gladwyne ES75175787587%80294%285289%2018-19578062867559419

Merion ES61961672585%66593%169089%2019-20546570806034363

Penn Valley ES70370680088%73596%278590%2020-21607978885245402

Penn Wynne ES74875882592%752101%485289%

AverageAverage

Elementary School Total3,8993922452586%414094%




Belmont Hills ES51452560088%54896%259888%

Cynwyd ES57658670084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES74275987587%80295%285289%

Merion ES61260872584%66591%169088%Summary of Required Classrooms Based on Class Size Guidelines

Penn Valley ES71572380090%73598%381089%

Penn Wynne ES76678882596%752105%587790%YEARBHCNGLMRPVPW

AverageAverage2016-170010-1-1

Elementary School Total39263989452588%414096%2017-18-2-101-1-4

2018-19-2-100-1-3

2018-19 Projected Enrollments: Sept. 2015 6-Year Average Compared to Oct. 2015 3-Year Average2019-20-2-1-101-3

2020-21-2-1-101-3

K-5 Elementary School Proj. Enrollment # in RED identifies the year the school is at it's Highest Projected Enrollment2018-19 "Medium" Projected Enrollments 6 Yr Avg (Sept. 2015)2018-19 Projected Enrollments 3 Year Avg (Oct. 2015)PDE Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)LMSD Functional Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)negative number indicates shortage


Belmont Hills ES52053760090%54898%259890%

Cynwyd ES56958570084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES74977687589%80297%387788%

Merion ES61160572583%66591%169088%

Penn Valley ES70171580089%73597%381088%

Penn Wynne ES76179782597%752106%690288%

AverageAverage





Belmont Hills ES51854160090%54899%259890%

Cynwyd ES57659970086%63894%166390%

Gladwyne ES75679387591%80299%387790%

Merion ES61861172584%66592%169089%

Penn Valley ES66367980085%73592%176089%

Penn Wynne ES776823825100%752109%690291%

AverageAverage



K-5 Elementary School2020-21 "Medium" Projected Enrollments 6 Yr Avg (Sept. 2015)2020-21 Projected Enrollments 3 Year Avg (Oct. 2015)PDE Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)LMSD Functional Capacity Using October 2015 Projected Enrollments (3 Yr Avg)


Belmont Hills ES50853760090%54898%259890%

Cynwyd ES55458670084%63892%166388%

Gladwyne ES73378787590%80298%387790%

Merion ES60960472583%66591%169088%

Penn Valley ES66868980086%73594%278588%

Penn Wynne ES75881682599%752109%690290%

AverageAverage


Summary - Classrooms Required - Based on HPE

SchoolYearAddl CR Req

Belmont Hills ES2019-202

Cynwyd ES2019-201

Gladwyne ES2019-203

Merion ES2016-171already short 1 music

Penn Valley ES2017-183has one classroom available

Penn Wynne ES2019-206

&L&"-,Bold Italic"&14Comparison of Elementary School Enrollment Projections&Rdate printed: &D

&L&Z&F&RPage &P

Lower Merion HS

PDE Cap = 600LMSD Cap = 55090 % LMSD = 495

98%

BH-1

BH - 2

BH-3

Belmont Hills

HS SUMMARY


94%

CN-1

CN-2

CN-3

Cynwyd

99%


GL-1

GL-2

GL-3

Gladwyne


93%

MR-1

MR-2

MR-3

Merion


94%

PV-1

PV-2

PV-3

Penn Valley


109%

PW-1

PW-2

PW-3

Penn Wynne

Bala Cynwyd MS (BCMS) 2014-15 CapacityNumber of clrmsPDE students per clrmPDE CapacityLMSD Capacity

Classrooms: Grades 6-83725925925

Special Education >660 sf5000

Gifted >660 sf (undersized)0000

Science Classroom02500

Science Lab920180180

Computer Lab320600

Computer Lab-Library10*0*0

TV Studio (undersized)02000

Art Classroom220400

Music Classroom125250

Instrumental Music Room225500

Choral Room225500

Family Consumer Science220400

Tech Ed > 1800 sf02000

Tech Ed < 1800 sf3000

Gym 6500-7500 sf166660

Auxiliary Gym >2500 sf133330

Auxiliary Gym 660 sf6000

Gifted >660 sf (undersized)0000


Science Lab520100100

New 2015-16 Classroom825200200

New 2015-16 Science Lab4208080

New 2015-16 Spec. Ed. >660 sf3000

Computer Lab120200

Computer Lab-Library10*0*0

TV Studio (undersized)02000

Art Classroom220400



Choral Room125250


Tech Ed > 1800 sf02000

Tech Ed < 1800 sf3000

Gym 6500-7500 sf06600



Gifted >660 sf1000


Science Lab (LMSD Cap. 24)1320260312

Computer Lab02000

TV Studio120200

Art Classroom7201400


Black Box125250


Choral Room125250


Tech Ed > 1800 sf02000

Tech Ed < 1800 sf2000

Gym 6500-7500 sf2661320



Gifted >660 sf1000


Science Lab (LMSD Cap. 24)1320260312

Computer Lab02000

TV Studio120200

Art Classroom7201400

Music Classroom & Black Box225500


Choral Room125250


Tech Ed > 1800 sf02000

Tech Ed < 1800 sf2000

Gym 6500-7500 sf1.566990


Auxiliary Gym


2015-2016 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21GL-1 741 740 714 715 722GL-2 741 751 742 749 756 733GL-3 741 757 759 776 793 787

700

720

740

760

780

800

820 Gladwyne

99%




2015-2016 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21MR-1 614 605 602 599 603MR-2 614 619 612 611 618 609MR-3 614 616 608 605 611 604

585590595600605610615620625

Merion


93%



2015-2016 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21PV-1 705 694 706 685 651PV-2 705 703 715 701 663 668PV-3 705 706 723 715 679 689

600620640660680700720740 Penn Valley


96%



2015-2016 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21PW-1 720 713 720 704 700PW-2 720 748 766 761 776 758PW-3 720 758 788 797 823 816

600

640

680

720

760

800

840Penn Wynne


109%



How Many Classrooms Do We Need?School HPE No. of CR

Needed*No. of CR Needed**

Belmont Hills 541 2 2Cynwyd 599 1 1Gladwyne 793 3 1Merion 616 1 1Penn Valley 723 2 1Penn Wynne 823 6 4

*Based on Achieving 90% of the LMSD Capacity**Based on Class Size Guidelines

Required Classrooms Basedon 90% LMSD Capacity

YEAR BH CN GL MR PV PW2016-17 1 1 2 1 2 42017-18 2 1 2 1 3 52018-19 2 1 3 1 3 62019-20 2 1 3 1 1 62020-21 2 1 3 1 2 6

Required Classrooms Basedon Class Size Guidelines*

YEAR BH CN GL MR PV PW2016-17 0 0 0 0 1 12017-18 2 1 0 0 1 42018-19 2 1 0 0 1 32019-20 2 1 1 0 0 32020-21 2 1 1 0 0 3

*Class Size Guidelines: Kind. = 20Grades 1,2 = 22Grade 3 = 23 Grades 4,5 = 25


Penn Wynne Elementary School Options: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (4) in one location on two floors w/ temp. CR’s

(4) Option 2: Add new permanent CR’s (4) in two locations w/ temp. CR’s (4)

Gladwyne Elementary School Options: Option 1: Convert Library to CR’s (2) and add new library w/ cafeteria expansion Option 2: Relocate Library, add CR’s (4) and cafeteria expansion w/ swing CR’s (4) Option 3: Provide new temp. CR’s (4) for long term use

Merion Elementary School Options: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (4) Option 2: Provide new temp. CR’s (4) for long term use

Penn Valley Elementary School Options: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (2) Option 2: Provide new temp. CR’s (2) for long term use Option 3: No additional classrooms


Belmont Hills Elementary School Option: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (2) stacked at corridor end

Cynwyd Elementary School Option: Option 1: Use of internal space for added CR’s at Atrium Option 2: No additional classrooms

Welsh Valley Middle School Options: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (4) at end of A Building (two floors) Option 2: Add new permanent CR’s (4) over recent construction at G Bldg. Option 3: Use temp. CR’s (4) (lease)

New Kindergarten Center Options: Option 1: New Kindergarten Center at Former Church Site Option 2: New Kindergarten Center at Former Church Site w/ Bus Parking

Option ComparisonsSchool/Option No. of CR’s Cost $K/CR CommentsPWES Option 1 4 Perm w/ Temps $5.56M $1,389KPWES Option 2 4 Perm w/ Temps – Struct. $6.26M $1,564K To $8.30M & $2,074K

GLES Option 1 2 Perm, Core $4.77M $2,387KGLES Option 2 4 Perm, Core w/ Temps $9.85M $2,464KGLES Option 3 4 Temp $1.55M $386KMRES Option 1 4 Perm $3.51M $876KMRES Option 2 4 Temp $1.55M $385K PVES Option 1 2 Perm $2.52M $1,258KPVES Option 2 2 Temp $1.45M $725KBHES Option 1 2 Perm $2.52M $1,258KCWES Option 1 2 Perm (Inside) $1.60M $800KWVMS Option 1 4 Perm (G Bldg.) w/ Temps $3.39M $848KWVMS Option 2 4 Perm (A Bldg.) $2.95M $736KWVMS Option 3 4 Temp $0.58M $144KKC Option 1 New w/ Sitework $16.3M $1,019KKC Option 2 New w/ Sitework & Buses $17.2M $1,075K

Summary Cost of Options

No. of CR’s Total Cost Cost Per CR$K/CR

Low 18 $12.68M $705KHigh 22 $31.69M $1,441K

For Additional Classrooms at 6 Elementary Schools and Welsh Valley:

Summary Cost of Options

To Build a Kindergarten Center (16 CR):$16.3M – 17.2M

No. of CR’s Total Cost Cost Per CR$K/CR

Low 16 $16.3M $1,019KHigh 16 $17.2M $1,075K

Timeline to Respond

• Rapid and Unexpected Rate of Growth

• Near Term Plan Strategies for 2016-2017

• Long Term Plan Detailed Review of Alternatives Develop In-Depth Plan Present to Community for Review and

Comment

Required for 2016-17

• Additional Classrooms at Penn Wynne -Install Temporary Classrooms Summer 2016

• Review Requirement for Permanent Additions – Proposed Plan by April 2016 for Construction Start June 2017

• Consider Alternate Strategies

Concepts for PW

Penn Wynne Elementary School Options: Option 1: Add new permanent CR’s (4) in one

location on two floors w/ temp. CR’s (4) Option 2: Add new permanent CR’s (4) in two

locations w/ temp. CR’s (4)

PW Option 1 Perm CR (4) Site

Temp CR’s


Penn Wynne ES – Option 1: Add perm. CR’s (4) at one location (2 fl.) including temp. CR’s (4)

Temporary Classroom Installation: Summer 2016Design/Permit Schedule: 9 monthsBid/Award Schedule: 2 monthsConstruction Schedule: 9 months

Estimate of Costs: $3,960,000 Construction Cost$1,595,000 Soft Cost $5,555,000 Project Cost

Pros ConsLowest cost option at PW per CR Requires Twp. approval

Will require zoning variance/other relief for impervious surfaceRequires Additional Core Space

$1,389K/CR

PW Option 2 Perm CR (4) Site

Temp CR’s


Penn Wynne ES – Option 2: Add perm. CR’s (4) at two locationsincluding temp. CR’s (4)

Temporary Classroom Installation: Summer 2016Design/Permit Schedule: 9 monthsBid/Award Schedule: 2 monthsConstruction Schedule: 12 months

Estimate of Costs: $4,512,000 - $6,352,000 Construction Cost$1,745,000 - $1,945,000 Soft Cost $6,257,000 - $8,297,000 Project Cost

Pros ConsRequires Twp. App./Zoning Var.Difficult constructionRequires swing space for 2 CRPotential unforeseen cost (range)

$1,564K - $2,074K /CR

Alternate Near Term Strategies

• Give Up Art/Music Rooms

• N+1

• Implement a Partner School Policy

The “Seats Available” Analysis(Belmont Hills)

Class Size Guideline 20 22 22 23 25 25 22

YEAR KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTALClassroom

Net2016-17 No. of Students 73 86 98 92 81 75 505

No. of Classrooms 2 4 5 4 4 3 22 0Seats Remaining 11 6 17 4 23 3 64

2017-18 No. of Students 47 114 92 98 93 82 525No. of Classrooms 2 5 4 5 4 4 24 -2Seats Remaining 16 1 0 22 11 22 72




The “Seats Available” Analysis(District Summary)

YEAR BH CN GL MR PV PW Total

2016-17 64 67 52 77 63 49 372

2017-18 72 83 81 61 72 92 461

2018-19 61 83 64 89 77 61 435

2019-20 59 69 73 82 65 38 386

2020-21 62 81 81 90 55 46 415

Partner School Concept

• After Initial Registration Period in Spring, No Additional Sections Created

• If No Space Available in Home School, Student is Assigned to Nearby School with Space

• Consideration for Siblings/Right of Return• Requires Public Awareness Campaign• Transportation Adjustments

Recommendations

• Proceed with Plan for Temporary Classrooms at PW – Install Summer 2016

• Proceed with Plans for Permanent Addition at PW

• Develop a Policy to Implement Partner School Concept

Lower Merion School DistrictEnrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IILower Merion School District Enrollment StudyFindings From the Study in AprilConclusions in AprilOriginal Opt. 2 Projections vs. 2015-16 Actual EnrollmentIndividual Buildings�Original Opt. 2 Projections vs. 2015-16 Actual EnrollmentProgression RatesOriginal Projections Compared to Updated ModelsRecommendationComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsComparison of Enrollment�ProjectionsEnrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IIRequired Classrooms Based� on 90% LMSD CapacityRequired Classrooms Based� on Class Size Guidelines*Enrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IIEnrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IISlide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Concepts for PWPW Option 1 Perm CR (4) SiteEnrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IIPW Option 2 Perm CR (4) SiteEnrollment Expansion �Project Concepts – Phase IIAlternate Near Term StrategiesThe “Seats Available” Analysis�(Belmont Hills)�The “Seats Available” Analysis�(District Summary)�Partner School ConceptRecommendations

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