Enrollment, Projections, and Enrollment, Projections, and Capacity in the Capacity in the

Arlington Public SchoolsArlington Public Schools

December 2006December 2006

DemographicsDemographics

Elementary School Demographics School Year Asian Black Hispanic White

2003-2004 10.2% 14.0% 32.3% 43.4% 2004-2005 10.1% 13.8% 29.9% 45.6% 2005-2006 10.3% 12.7% 28.1% 47.5% 2006-2007 11.1% 12.1% 25.3% 49.8%

Middle School Demographics School Year Asian Black Hispanic White

2003-2004 9.2% 14.6% 31.5% 44.4% 2004-2005 9.6% 15.2% 30.8% 43.8% 2005-2006 10.7% 15.4% 27.4% 45.9% 2006-2007 10.8% 15.6% 26.9% 46.0%

High School Demographics School Year Asian Black Hispanic White

2003-2004 11.4% 14.9% 33.3% 40.2% 2004-2005 10.7% 14.8% 32.6% 41.6% 2005-2006 10.1% 15.2% 31.4% 42.9% 2006-2007 10.6% 15.2% 30.5% 43.1%

APS Demographics School Year Asian Black Hispanic White

2003-2004 10.3% 14.4% 32.3% 42.7% 2004-2005 10.2% 14.4% 30.9% 44.0% 2005-2006 10.3% 14.1% 29.0% 45.8% 2006-2007 10.9% 13.8% 27.2% 47.0%

2001-2002 38.31%

2002-2003 37.65%

2003-2004 35.84%

2004-2005 36.09%

2005-2006 35.02%

2006-2007 33.83%

Students on Free/Reduced LunchStudents on Free/Reduced Lunch

Enrollment TrendsEnrollment Trends

From 2001-2005, APS has experienced declining enrollment system-wide K-12 populations

2006: Increase of 13 K-12 students– Decline of 871 K-12 students in 5 years

Expect continued decline system-wide for a few years, expect eventual reverse

Decline is not equally distributed geographically or by ethnic groups

Total K-12 and PreK-12 Enrollment (September 30th), 1961-2006

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

K-12 Enrollment

PreK-12 Enrollment

Total Pre-K–12 Enrollment: 18,451

Compared to September 30, 2005:

K – 12: +13

K – 5 : +77

6 – 8: -37

9 – 12: -21

September 30, 2006 CountSeptember 30, 2006 Count

K-12 and ESOL/HILT K-12 and ESOL/HILT EnrollmentsEnrollments

Year K-12 ESOL/HILT

2001 18484 4765

2002 18469 4458

2003 18333 4166

2004 17961 3802

2005 17600 3574

2006 17613 3506

Total Change -871 -1259

K-12 Enrollment Projections 2007-2012

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

Stu

de

nts

5 Year Forecast

3 Year Forecast

5 Year Average

3 Year Average

3 Year Weighted Avg

Adjusted Model

Projection MethodologyProjection Methodology

School-specific projections are based on 3-year cohort-survival averages– If a school’s K to 1st grade growth rate averages 5%,

the current K will be multiplied by 105% to project next year’s 1st grade

Kindergarten is based on “capture rate” for the system and Arlington’s birth rates for 5 years prior

Generally, enrollment is within 1-2% of projections system-wide

ÊÚ ÊÚ

ÊÚ

ÊÚ

ÊÚÊÚ

ÊÚ ÊÚÊÚ

ÊÚ

Taylor

Oakridge

Key

Long Branch

Jamestown

Glebe

Abingdon

Ashlawn

Tuckahoe

Henry

Barcroft

McKinley

Nottingham

Barrett

Hoffman-Boston

Carlin Springs

Randolph

Woodbury Park

Parkland Gardens

Broyhilton Apartments

Gates of Ballston

The Brittany

West VillageThe ColoniesFairview Manor

Marlaine,Marlaine So.,Hilltop House

Rosslyn Ridge II

Locations of Development ProjectsAffecting APS Students

December, 2005

N

A. DentonJanuary, 2006

Affordable Rental Housing Units in Arlington

19,740

9,875

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000 2005

2005 Student Generation Factor2005 Student Generation Factor

Students by Housing Types – 2006 Students by Housing Types – 2006

54%

21%

8%

5%

3%

3% 4%

2%

Single Family Detached

Apartment - Garden

Apartment - Elevator

Duplex

Condo - Garden

Condo - Elevator

Townhouse

Non-Residents/NA

Capacity Utilization TablesCapacity Utilization TablesNovember 2006November 2006

School Capacity Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent Enrollment Percent

Abingdon 576 353 61.3% 357 62.0% 350 60.8% 346 60.1% 352 61.1% 354 61.5% 356 61.8%ASF 440 444 100.9% 441 100.2% 445 101.1% 452 102.7% 453 103.0% 465 105.7% 460 104.5%ATS 442 440 99.5% 441 99.8% 441 99.8% 441 99.8% 441 99.8% 441 99.8% 441 99.8%Ashlawn 418 355 84.9% 376 90.0% 389 93.1% 417 99.8% 435 104.1% 461 110.3% 455 108.9%Barcroft 442 324 73.3% 310 70.1% 298 67.4% 297 67.2% 300 67.9% 298 67.4% 308 69.7%Barrett 531 384 72.3% 383 72.1% 394 74.2% 413 77.8% 428 80.6% 433 81.5% 431 81.2%Campbell 397 265 66.8% 255 64.2% 248 62.5% 247 62.2% 249 62.7% 245 61.7% 262 66.0%Carlin Springs 563 490 87.0% 482 85.6% 477 84.7% 476 84.5% 485 86.1% 487 86.5% 496 88.1%Claremont 515 444 86.2% 472 91.7% 481 93.4% 484 94.0% 498 96.7% 492 95.5% 502 97.5%Drew 564 477 84.6% 489 86.7% 487 86.3% 493 87.4% 494 87.6% 497 88.1% 502 89.0%Glebe 377 337 89.4% 350 92.8% 379 100.5% 388 102.9% 391 103.7% 399 105.8% 406 107.7%Henry 426 346 81.2% 344 80.8% 337 79.1% 344 80.8% 341 80.0% 346 81.2% 351 82.4%Hoffman-Boston 581 342 58.9% 339 58.3% 316 54.4% 313 53.9% 300 51.6% 297 51.1% 306 52.7%Jamestown 572 529 92.5% 533 93.2% 514 89.9% 525 91.8% 509 89.0% 504 88.1% 521 91.1%Key 626 609 97.3% 588 93.9% 568 90.7% 565 90.3% 567 90.6% 566 90.4% 566 90.4%Long Branch 493 417 84.6% 411 83.4% 422 85.6% 423 85.8% 428 86.8% 425 86.2% 431 87.4%McKinley 387 389 100.5% 397 102.6% 401 103.6% 397 102.6% 402 103.9% 408 105.4% 411 106.2%Nottingham 444 432 97.3% 443 99.8% 452 101.8% 479 107.9% 493 111.0% 513 115.5% 497 111.9%Oakridge 554 446 80.5% 446 80.5% 459 82.9% 465 83.9% 472 85.2% 474 85.6% 477 86.1%Randolph 420 349 83.1% 340 81.0% 321 76.4% 321 76.4% 316 75.2% 323 76.9% 325 77.4%Taylor 631 579 91.8% 562 89.1% 544 86.2% 530 84.0% 535 84.8% 539 85.4% 541 85.7%Tuckahoe 499 568 113.8% 595 119.2% 591 118.4% 605 121.2% 613 122.8% 625 125.3% 608 121.8%Total Elem Cap 10898 9319 85.5% 9354 85.8% 9314 85.5% 9421 86.4% 9502 87.2% 9592 88.0% 9653 88.6%

2006 2007 2008 20122009 2010 2011

Capacity AnalysisCapacity Analysis

School Year 2006 Building capacity:

20,213 Utilization rate:

89.4% Countywide seats

available:

2,144

School Year 2011 Building capacity:

20,373 Utilization rate:

88.9% Countywide seats

available:

2,261

Assign students to a school who reside in proximity to that school Assign students to a school who reside in proximity to that school including those who live in safe walk zones. including those who live in safe walk zones.

Keep neighborhoods together.Keep neighborhoods together.

Avoid creating elementary school boundaries that do not contain the Avoid creating elementary school boundaries that do not contain the school to which students are assigned.school to which students are assigned.

Minimize transportation times.Minimize transportation times.

Minimize future capital and operating budget costs.Minimize future capital and operating budget costs.

Promote demographic diversity.Promote demographic diversity.

Avoid causing students who have continued to reside in a particular Avoid causing students who have continued to reside in a particular geographic area to be affected by boundary change more than once at a geographic area to be affected by boundary change more than once at a particular school level, (e.g. elementary, middle, high).particular school level, (e.g. elementary, middle, high).

Avoid separating small numbers of students from their classmates when Avoid separating small numbers of students from their classmates when they move to a school at the next level.they move to a school at the next level.

Board Criteria on Boundary ChangesBoard Criteria on Boundary Changes

Guiding Principles Guiding Principles of Boundary and Enrollment Adjustment Committeeof Boundary and Enrollment Adjustment Committee

Reach school consensus on capacity numbers, enrollment Reach school consensus on capacity numbers, enrollment projections, and the scope of the problemprojections, and the scope of the problem

Options should maintain or enhance the fundamental Options should maintain or enhance the fundamental character of the eleven excellent schools involved in this character of the eleven excellent schools involved in this process unless a school itself wishes to changeprocess unless a school itself wishes to change

Pursue enrollment adjustments before considering boundary Pursue enrollment adjustments before considering boundary changeschanges

Move the fewest number of students to different schools, Move the fewest number of students to different schools, while achieving the School Board’s goal of better matching while achieving the School Board’s goal of better matching building capacity to enrollmentbuilding capacity to enrollment

Monitor and assess over a period of two school years the Monitor and assess over a period of two school years the impact and effectiveness of each of the recommendations impact and effectiveness of each of the recommendations with preliminary reports on transfers and enrollmentwith preliminary reports on transfers and enrollment

Create Barrett ClusterCreate Barrett Cluster Provide staff support for exemplary project developmentProvide staff support for exemplary project development Revise admissions policy to 95% capacityRevise admissions policy to 95% capacity Continue freeze of out-of-team transfersContinue freeze of out-of-team transfers Move Montessori class from McKinley to AshlawnMove Montessori class from McKinley to Ashlawn Move three planning units from TaylorMove three planning units from Taylor Grandfather rising Grades 3, 4, and 5Grandfather rising Grades 3, 4, and 5 Move new planning unit to Long BranchMove new planning unit to Long Branch

Board Actions -- 2004 Boundary ProcessBoard Actions -- 2004 Boundary Process

Capacity, Enrollment, and TransfersCapacity, Enrollment, and Transfers2006-20072006-2007

Capacity, Enrollment, and Transfer Information for Schools Involved in Boundary and Enrollment Adjustment Process in Fall/Winter 2004

as of December 2006 .

Enrollment Regular Transfers (Immersion Transfers for Key) In Out

School

Capacity Sept

2005 Actual

Sept 2006

Projected

Sept 2006

Actual

Sept 2007

Projected K 1 2 3 4 5 T K 1 2 3 4 5 T

Ashlawn1 418 323 333 355 376 2 1 1 4 3 11 4 4 4 3 1 2 18 Barrett 531 366 349 384 383 10 14 3 7 6 6 46 1 2 2 5 Glebe 375 327 334 337 350 3 5 4 6 2 4 24 6 4 2 7 6 6 31 Jamestown 572 535 548 529 533 4 1 1 1 7 1 1 2 1 1 6 Key 633 609 615 609 588 40 42 38 36 51 47 253 2 1 2 1 6 Long Branch 493 416 425 417 411 8 14 11 11 8 14 66 2 3 1 4 2 11 McKinley 3872 380 382 389 396 1 1 3 5 2 10 2 3 3 4 3 15 Nottingham 430 369 365 432 443 4 2 2 1 2 11 2 1 4 4 3 4 18 Science Focus 447 412 414 444 441 2 2 3 7 6 20 0 Taylor 6302 569 577 579 562 5 1 2 4 4 4 20 1 1 1 1 4 Tuckahoe 4992 555 568 568 596 1 1 4 1 1 8 4 4 2 5 3 2 20 1. Ashlawn also has 14 NCLB transfers (K/1, Gr.1/2, Gr.2/1, Gr.3/6, Gr.4/1, Gr.5/3) that are not included in the regular transfer numbers. 2. Tuckahoe’s capacity with its current relocatables is 566; McKinley’s capacity with its current relocatables is 545; Taylor’s relocatables are not capacity

bearing

Transfers to BarrettTransfers to Barrett

Number of Regular Transfers to Barrett from Cluster as of December 2006 Ashlawn 4

Glebe 9 Long Branch 4

McKinley 1 Nottingham 2 Tuckahoe 5

Total 25

Impact on Planning UnitsImpact on Planning Units

Schools Attended by Students Residing in Planning Units Effected by Boundary Adjustments

as of December 2006 Planning Units 2322 and 2323 (from Taylor to Ashlawn) Planning Unit 2301 (from Taylor to Jamestown)

School Number of Students School Number of Students Ashlawn 41 Taylor 6 Taylor 11 Jamestown 7

Science Focus 4 Science Focus 4 Claremont 0

Long Branch 0 ATS 2

Barrett 1 Glebe 3 Key 7

Recommendation #1Recommendation #1

Survey of northwest corner households as to:

• Number of pre-Kindergarten age children in household

• Ages of children• Expectation of continuing to reside in Arlington• Expectation of attending APS

Recommendation #2Recommendation #2

Series of enrollment adjustments through moving of programs and/or site adjustments:

• Tuckahoe PreK Special Ed to TBD (for one year)• McKinley Montessori to Ashlawn or Barrett• McKinley PreK Special Ed to be combined with another PreK Special Ed • Nottingham Interlude to TBD• Freeze team transfers to Science Focus

Recommendation #3Recommendation #3

System-wide task group process (February 2007 to mid-October 2007) to look at enrollment and capacity at elementary schools in context of Multi-Site Committee recommendations, survey described in #1, and impact of Head Start.

Task Group MembershipTask Group Membership

2 citizen co-chairs appointed by the School Board

10 citizens recommended by CCPTAs• 1 representing Immersion• 1 representing ATS/Drew• 1 representing Barrett/Campbell• 1 representing the Team• 1 for each school over 101% capacity for the six years of projections (McKinley and Tuckahoe)• 4 representing other APS neighborhood schools

10 staff members• 1 representing Immersion• 1 representing ATS/Drew• 1 representing Barrett/Campbell

Task Group MembershipTask Group Membership

• 1 representing the Team• 1 for each school over 101% capacity for the six years of projections (McKinley and Tuckahoe)• 4 representing other APS neighborhood schools

1 citizen representative from Facilities Advisory Committee1 citizen representative from Advisory Council on Instruction2 at-large citizen representatives

Staff Liaisons:Assistant Superintendent, Administrative

ServicesSpecial Projects CoordinatorFacilities Planner

Next StepsNext Steps

January 4, 2007 – School Board will discuss staff recommendations on a boundary process and/or enrollment adjustments

January 18, 2007 – The School Board will act on staff recommendations on a boundary process and/or enrollment adjustments

Questions and CommentsQuestions and Comments

Free/Reduced Lunch:http://www.arlington.k12.va.us/IS/plan_eval/demog/free_lunch.shtml

Civil Rights Statistics:http://www.arlington.k12.va.us/IS/plan_eval/demog/civil_rights/

Survey of Limited English Proficient Students:http://www.arlington.k12.va.us/instruct/esol_hilt/downloads/lep_survey_2005.pdf

Enrollment Data:http://www.arlington.k12.va.us/IS/plan_eval/demog/month_enroll/

Projections:http://www.arlington.k12.va.us/IS/plan_eval/demog/enroll_proj/fallprojections07-12.pdf

Important Links – DataImportant Links – Data

Glebe Elementary K-5 Population

269238 229

273247

295 306

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Nottingham K-5 Population

364

403394

367

428

390

399

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Average K from 2000-06: 66 students2006 K: 93 students, 41% higher

53%

22%

8%

3%

5%

2%2% 5% Single Family Detached

Apartment - Garden

Apartment - Elevator

Duplex

Condo - Garden

Condo - Elevator

Townhouse

Non-residents/NA

Students by Housing Types – 2005 Students by Housing Types – 2005