ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein...

ENSEMBLES General AssemblyPrague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007

RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini


RT5: EvaluationAlbert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini

Objective: to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses


Achievements

• With some delay, all RT5 deliverables and milestones are met


Achievements



Achievements


globalmultidecadal

globals2d

regionalmultidecadal

impactmodels


• Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a)– D5.15: impact of improved land-surface physics

onthe simulation of the Boreal summer

surfaceclimate (INGV)

Achievementsglobal

multidecadal


• Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a)– D5.11: representation of the tropical intra seasonal

variability and its impact on seasonalpredictability (IPSL)

– D5.12: predictability in perfect-model mode over theNorth Atlantic/European sector (IfM)

Achievementsglobal

multidecadalglobals2d


• Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3)– D5.18: ENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for

Europe(UEA)

– D5.20: observational station data collected for theENSEMBLES daily gridded dataset for

Europe(KNMI)

Achievementsglobal




• Evaluation of impact models (RT6)– D5.13: challenges of interpreting and

application of anensemble of imperfect models on

seasonaltime scales (LSE)

Achievementsglobal



impactmodels


• Some examples:

Achievementsglobal



impactmodels


GCM representation of vertical circulation regimes (ω500 dynamical proxy) for tropical eastern Pacific

-> double ITCZ syndrome (INGV)


Evaluation of DEMETER Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability ISV (Xavier, LMD)


KNMI Climate Explorer ENSEMBLES data server(climexp.knmi.nl by Van Oldenborgh, KNMI)

Select data in the Climate Explorer

Data is retrieved from ECMWFs2d server with OpenDAP

Available for analysis, e.g. skill scores


-1

ECMWF

UKMO

Multi-model (equal weights)

1-0.5 0.50

RPSSD

T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, 1960-2001 cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score

RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss)


-1

ECMWF

UKMO

Multi-model (weighted + climatology) (more orange + no blue)

1-0.5 0.50

RPSSD

T2m JJA forecast, ini: May, DEMETER, 1960-2001 cross-validation using modified ranked probability skill score

RPSS (Weigel et al., MeteoSwiss)


ECA dataset for gridding (KNMI and MeteoSwiss)






Best gridding method for daily rainfall(Hofstra et al., Oxford Univ.

and Haylock et al., Univ. of East Anglia)


Comparison with existing daily datasets(Hofstra et al., Oxford University)

Compound relative error score CRE

Daily precipitation


Comparison with ERA40(Hofstra et al., Oxford University)

Daily Tmax

RMSE


ECMWF seasonal forecast storms, %total insured value SwissRe portfolio (Della-Marta & Liniger, MeteoSwiss)


Verification of wheat yield at the Bologna University experimental farm forecasted with DEMETER

downscaled input (ARPA)


Plans

• Another 16 deliverables until the end of the project, including all-GCM evaluation efforts

• Start of more regional work now that the RT5 observational data set and the RCM data are available

• Note that good access to all data remains essential for RT5!


RT5 review

• Taken up the recommendation to further integrate RT5 work within ENSEMBLES:– Monday workshop on RCM and SDS evaluation

(together with RT2b and RT3)– Thursday workshop on model error (with RT4)– Thursday workshop on weighting, credibility and

reliability (with RT3; Geert Lenderink)

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ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein...

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