ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

RT5: Evaluation

Objective: comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Evaluation approaches

improvedobservationaldatasets for

Europe

global scale

keyprocesses / phenomena

ands2d forecast

skill

regionalscale

statistics ofextremes

impacts

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Evaluation approaches

improvedobservationaldatasets for

Europe

(myexpertise)

global scale

keyprocesses / phenomena

ands2d forecast

skill

(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)

regionalscale

statistics ofextremes

(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)

impacts

(links to RT6;refer to

Andy Morse)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Evaluation approaches

improvedobservationaldatasets for

Europe

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series

eca.knmi.nl

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series

eca.knmi.nl/ensembles

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observationaldatasets (25 and 50 km)

Haylock et al., accepted by JGRscaling issues: interpolation reduces extremes

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)

http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)

400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)

http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)

400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Remaining

• Need a unique name for the gridded dataset

• Guidance on the use of uncertainty information(standard error fields are provided, but not used!)

• Updates (2007, new version with improved station density, Lambert RCM grid flavour)

• Datasets for other variables (slp, snow cover, radiation/sunshine)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Evaluation approaches

global scale

keyprocesses /phenomena

ands2d forecast

skill

(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

GCM metrics

(Prince Xavier, IPSL)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

GCM metrics

vertical circulation regimes in tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (Bellucci et al., INGV)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

S2D forecast skill

(Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF)

(Andreas Weigel, MeteoSwiss)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Remaining

• Integration of evaluation results from RT5, feedback to GCM modelers (Stream 2 idea)

• RT5 contribution to combined weighting GCM/RCM

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Evaluation approaches

regionalscale

statistics ofextremes

(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Representation of extremes in RCMs using indices

Kostopoulouet al. (NOA)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Representation of trends in extremes using indices

Lister et al. (UEA)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Remaining

• RT5 contribution to RCM weighting metrics

• Treatment of extremes in ENSEMBLES across different variables, time scales and spatial scales (next extremes workshop, Riederalp, January 09)

• Impacts perspective on extremes

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Impacts perspective

Key question in adaptation strategies (design criteria):

“How to assess probabilities of extremes in a non-stationary climate?”

(May 08 - RT5 workshop in De Bilt organized together with WMO/CLIVAR-ETCCDI)

ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

Applying the non-stationary extreme-value model to precipitation in the Rhine basin (Martin Hanel, KNMI)