First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI)5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Ensuring that leopard trophy hunting is not detrimental to the survival of the species
(CITES 17.9.… should produce conservation benefits for the species)
Guy Balme© N Whyte
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Historic range
Current range
➢ Range loss: ❖ Africa - 48–67%❖ Asia - 83–87%(Jacobson et al 2016)
➢ Near Threatened Vulnerable(Stein et al 2016)
➢ Lack of longitudinal data
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
South Africa (2013–2018):
➢ 93 camera-trap surveys at 24 sites➢ Density estimated using spatial capture-recapture models ➢ = 0.91 ± 0.04
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Songimvelo GR Barberton NR
In addition, 4 sites where no leopards detected despite suitable habitat & abundant prey
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Threats:
➢ Loss & fragmentation of suitable habitat(Swanepoel et al 2013, Jacobson et al 2016)
➢ Depletion of natural prey(Henschel et al 2011, Rosenblatt et al 2016)
➢ Retaliatory killing due to the threat posed to livestock & game(Kissui 2008, St John et al 2011, Pitman et al 2015, 2017, Thorn et al 2013)
➢ Poorly managed trophy hunting(Balme et al 2009, 2010a, Packer et al 2009, 2011, Swanepoel et al 2014, Pitman et al 2015)
➢ Demand for skins for ceremonial wear
❖ Anthropogenic offtake (including trophy hunting) typically
additive (Balme et al 2009, Swanepoel et al 2014, Pitman 2017, Robinson et al 2014, Creel et al 2015)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Ceremony No. dancers No. authenticskins
No. faux skins No. faux skins distributed
Total no. authentic skins
Jan 2014 1255 938 113 1813 15,050
Jan 2015 1240 772 343 6071 13,664
Jan 2016 803 416 316 11,501 15,140
Jan 2017 1167 572 526 14,710 15,996
Jan 2018 1450 683 661 17,602 18,188
➢Estimated 13,000–18,000 leopard skins among Shembe
➢48% of authentic skins replaced
➢Mean time-to-replacement 8.5 ± 0.6 years
∴ Replacement rate ~900 skins per year
Demand for skins for ceremonial wear:
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Origin of traded skins:
➢311 reference samples, 97 Shembe samples
➢Genetic variation divided into 17 haplogroups based on MtDNA
sequencing
➢~85% of skins originate outside of South Africa
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Rosser & Haywood 2002
Biology
Population status
Management measures
Monitoring
Levels of protection
Non-detriment findings (CITES 16.7):
Threats
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Biological challenges:
➢Vulnerable to social flux, particularly
replacement of adult, resident males
❖ Low cub survival: ~35% in
protected populations; infanticide
accounts for ~50% juvenile
mortality
(Balme et al. 2013, Balme & Hunter 2013, Swanepoel et al.
2015)
❖ Reduced reproductive rates
(Balme et al. 2009, Balme & Hunter 2013)
➢ Vulnerable to anthropogenic edge
effects
(Balme et al 2010b, 2018, Williams et al 2017)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Management challenges:
➢Elusive, wide-ranging, low densities
❖ Impossible to reliably estimate leopard population size at
provincial or national scalese.g. Swanepoel et al. 2014: 4476 leopards (95% CI: 2813–11,632)
❖ Unreliable population estimates can be more harmful than no
data
➢Hunting effort often unevenly distributed across leopard range (Balme et al 2010a, Packer et al 2011, Pitman et al 2015)
➢Poor trophy selection (Spong et al 2000, Balme et al 2010a, Braczkowski et al 2015)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Solutions – South Africa, a case study:
1. Establish a monitoring framework that reliably estimates leopard
population trends & enables adaptive management
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range
3. Implement biological safeguards to leopard hunting
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
1. Establish a monitoring framework that reliably estimates
leopard population trends & enables adaptive management:
➢Combination of intensive & extensive monitoring approaches
❖ Balance between accuracy/precision & scale
➢Robust methods that account for detection probability
❖ Spatial capture-recapture – robust population estimates
❖ Occupancy – relative abundance indices
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Camera-trap surveys – robust population estimates
➢ Minimum standards to ensure spatial capture-
recapture density estimates are reliable:❖ Camera-trap density ≥1 paired station/5 km2
❖ Survey effort ≥1000 trap nights/100 km2
❖ Survey area ≥100 km2*
❖ Survey length ≤90 days
(Tobler & Powell 2013, Pitman et al. in review)
➢ Survey design & implementation must be robust,
& comparable between sites & over time
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Camera-trap surveys – robust population estimates
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Occupancy surveys – relative abundance indices:
Temporal Spatial
Clare et al 2015Tempel & Gutiérrez 2013
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Occupancy – relative abundance indices:
➢ Track counts❖ Presence/absence of tracks in 1-km transect
segments per 225-km2 grid cell
❖ Substrate quality accounted for in estimates of
detection probability
(Hines et al 2010, Midlane et al 2015)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Occupancy – relative abundance indices:
➢ Questionnaires❖ 400–600 km2 grid cells with min. 10 replicates per cell
❖ Validate the reliability of the interviewee
(Zeller et al 2011, Farhadinia et al 2018)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range:
➢ Zonation approach
e.g. Limpopo Province, South Africa
Baseline quota size & distribution based on the extent of suitable
leopard habitat (Pitman et al 2015)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range:
➢ Zonation approach
1. Extent of suitable leopard habitat determined per catchment (Swanepoel et al 2013)
e.g. Limpopo Province, South Africa
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range:
➢ Zonation approach
1. Extent of suitable leopard habitat determined per catchment (Swanepoel et al 2013)
2. Population size per catchment estimated by extent of suitable habitat (Swanepoel et al. 2014)
e.g. Limpopo Province, South Africa
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range:
➢ Zonation approach
1. Extent of suitable leopard habitat determined per catchment (Swanepoel et al 2013)
2. Population size per catchment estimated by extent of suitable habitat (Swanepoel et al. 2014)
3. Max. sustainable offtake (3.6% of estimated popn size; Caro et al. 2009) determined per catchment
e.g. Limpopo Province, South Africa
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range:
➢ Zonation approach
e.g. Limpopo Province, South Africa
1. Extent of suitable leopard habitat determined per catchment (Swanepoel et al 2013)
2. Population size per catchment estimated by extent of suitable habitat (Swanepoel et al. 2014)
3. Max. sustainable offtake (3.6% of estimated popn size; Caro et al. 2009) determined per catchment
4. Adjoining catchments combined to enable annual sustainable offtake of 1 leopard per Leopard Hunting Zone
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Adaptive management:
Surveillance site
Catchment
Leopard Hunting Zone (LHZ)
LHZ eligible for quota due
to stable population
LHZ eligible for quota if:
1. Population trend data (based on SCR estimates) available & <3 years old
2. Population is stable or increasing
3. Hunt return data from previous year submitted
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
3. Implement biological safeguards to leopard hunting
➢Restrict hunting offtake to males ≥7 years old (Packer et al 2009, Pitman 2017)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
3. Implement biological safeguards to leopard hunting
➢Restrict hunting offtake to males ≥7 years old (Balme et al 2012)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
3. Implement biological safeguards to leopard hunting
➢Restrict hunting offtake to males ≥7 years old (Balme et al 2012)
Full model (predictors: dewlap
size, ear condition, facial scarring)
Reduced model (predictors:
dewlap size)
Age class General (%) Validation (%) General (%) Validation (%)
<2 years 66.7 83.3 84.6 100.0
2-3 years 64.3 50.0 25.0 25.0
4-6 years 50.0 20 27.3 50.0
≥7 years 83.3 100.0 90.9 100
Total 67.3 60.0 54.9 77.8
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
www.saleopardhunting.com
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
The Million Dollar Question – what does it cost?
Item Cost
Staff salaries $ 25,000.00
Food & lodging $ 6,000.00
Vehicle $ 55,000.00 Vehicle licensing & insurance $ 2,500.00
Vehicle maintenance $ 3,500.00
Fuel $ 9,000.00
Camera traps $ 30,000.00
Batteries $ 2,000.00
Miscellaneous $ 15,000.00
TOTAL $ 148,000.00
Item Cost
Staff salaries $ 25,000.00
Food & lodging $ 6,000.00
Vehicle $ -Vehicle licensing & insurance $ 2,500.00
Vehicle maintenance $ 5,000.00
Fuel $ 9,000.00
Camera traps $ 11,500.00
Batteries $ 2,000.00
Miscellaneous $ 10,000.00
Total $ 71,000.00
1. Establish a monitoring framework that reliably estimates leopard population trends & enables adaptive management
Year One (10 surveys) Thereafter (10 surveys/yr)
First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
The Million Dollar Question – what does it cost?
2. Ensure hunting effort is evenly distributed across leopard range
3. Implement biological safeguards to leopard hunting
Item Cost
Staff salaries $ -
Food & lodging $ -
Vehicle $ -Vehicle licensing & insurance $ -
Vehicle maintenance $ -
Fuel $ -
Camera traps $ -
Batteries $ -
Miscellaneous $ -
Total $ 0.00
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First Range State Meeting of the Joint CMS-CITES African Carnivores Initiative (ACI) 5-8 November, Bonn, Germany
Thank you
© G Lautenbach
