Entry discrimination in

the NHL:Evolution and the

KHL effect

Tom Christie

and Marc Lavoie

Preliminaries

• There have been lots of studies on salary determination in the NHL, and by extension on salary discrimination

• There have been fewer studies on the issue of entry discrimination in the NHL.

• This discrimination could affect Europeans, Americans and French Canadians, to the benefit of English Canadians

• One way of ascertaining the presence of entry discrimination is to compare the future performance of players relative to the rank at which they were drafted.

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DISCRIMINATION IN THE NHLQuebec Hockey Players Sidelined

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Bob Sirois 2009, 2010

Entry and hiring discrimination

• “When I talk about discrimination, I’m talking about equal or comparable talent. Most NHL teams, at equal talent or comparable talent, will not take a Quebecer, will not take a European, they will not even take an American player, they will take a good ol’ Canadian boy.”

• …. Former Devils Star Bobby Holik replied, “I agree with him 100%. Because I’ve experienced it myself where I believe I had to fight for my spot, fight for my ice time, more and longer than the Western Canadians or Ontario-born and raised.”

• Bob Sirois, author of Discrimination in the NHLMontreal, November 16, 2010

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Prejudices and poor information

• “Talent scouting is much more a question of intuition, feeling or even gut instinct. Myths, prejudices, stereotypes and favouritism are an integral part of each National Hockey League draft”

• (Sirois 2010, p. 30).

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Previous studies, with simplest modelDependent variable: career points per game

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Lavoie et al. 1987

Lavoie and Grenier 1992

McLean and Veall 1992

Lavoie 2003

1983-84R² = .27N= 362

1989-90AdjR² = .22

1990-91R² = .20N = 280

1993-94AdjR² = .16

N = 281

Constant .752 .745 .737 .668

Draft Number − .00467(5.89)***

− .00372(3.79)***

− .00411(4.28)***

− .00228(2.90)***

Draft Number² +.0000205(4.54)***

+.0000132(2.51)**

+.0000167(3.16)***

+.0000110(2.17)**

Defense − .266(9.59)***

− .271(7.49)***

− .270(7.78)***

− .230(6.18)***

French Canadian

+ .110(2.61)***

+ .089(1.54)

+ .064(1.43)

+ .122(2.44)**

Have things changed in nearly 20 years?

• 20 years have gone by• People may hold less prejudices• Financial constraints on teams limited by the salary

caps may induce teams to be more efficient in their scouting and hiring decisions

• New technology allows scouts to get access to more information and more visuals of prospective draftees, thus reducing uncertainty in appraisal

• Hence, with less uncertainty, less biased decisions should be taken

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Dependent variable: career points per game

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2009-2010R2 = 0.236, N = 295

Constant 0.550***(0.0233)

Draft Number -0.00281***(0.000531)

Draft Number2 0.00000785***(2.23e-06)

Defense -0.151***(0.0255)

French Canadian 0.0271(0.0362)

It would seem that scouting is more efficient ….

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1993 – 1994 2009 – 2010

y = -0.00228x + 0.0000110x2

∂y/∂x = -0.00228 + 2(0.0000110)xSet ∂y/∂x = 0Therefore draft rank where y is minimized:x = 0.00228/0.000022 = 103.64

y = -0.00281x + 0.00000785x2

∂y/∂x = -0.00281 + 2(0.00000785)xSet ∂y/∂x = 0Therefore draft rank where y is minimized:x = 0.00281/0.00000785 = 178.98

Two more more complex model (constant and draft rank left out of results) ….

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(1)2009-2010R2 = 0.237N = 295

(2)2009-2010R2 = 0.301N = 295

Defence -0.154*** -0.134***(0.0272) (0.0270)

Defensive Play 0.00947 0.0253(0.0266) (0.0261)

Height -0.0261***(0.00784)

Weight 0.000941(0.00110)

Penalties -0.0578**(0.0223)

French Canadian 0.0281 0.0212(0.0363) (0.0350)

What about Europeans and Americans?

• More information available than in the past, thus less uncertainty, and less possible bias.

• However, European leagues may be more developed than in the past, in particular the Russian KHL, so that NHL teams run the risk of seeing their European draft picks declining to play in North America.

• Repeat regression (2), adding Europeans and Americans to the sample of 2009-2010 players

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How about Europeans and Americans?

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1993-1994R2 = 0.18N = 436

2009-2010R2 = 0.285N = 561

French Canadian 0.116*** 0.015(0.044) (0.0358)

European(Russians included)

0.135*** 0.071***

(0.038) (0.0222)

American 0.025 0.010(0.038) (0.0224)

How about isolating the Russians?

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2009-2010R2 = 0.311N = 561

French Canadian 0.0154(0.0356)

Non- Russian European 0.0884***(0.0221)

American 0.00995(0.0223)

Russian 0.194***(0.0423)

Conclusions

• There is still no apparent entry discrimination against American hockey players.

• Entry discrimination against French Canadian hockey players seems to have disappeared.

• There is still apparent entry discrimination against non-Russian European hockey players, but less so than before.

• There is a strong and obvious KHL effect against Russian hockey players, which discourages NHL teams from drafting young Russian players as early as they should.

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