Enviro Scan fall update

Oct. 10, 2014

NWRC

1

Global economy

After a slow recovery, the global economy now appears to be showing some signs of increased

momentum. Global growth will be faster, but will not have the speed of the decade prior to the

Great Recession. At 3.7% GDP growth in 2015, the world economy will still be expanding

below the 4.0% average pace seen from 1999-2008. The U.S. economy appears to have finally

gained traction following an extended sluggish recovery. In time, the recovery should also

extend to the euro zone, as monetary accommodation and a falling euro lead to a moderate

pickup in growth.

Canada’s economy is well positioned to record steady and moderate growth over the next couple

of years. A pickup in export growth is likely to feed through to increased investment and hiring.

Although employment gains are expected to remain modest by historical standards, prospects for

above-average productivity growth in Canada are expected to pay off in terms of modestly

higher wages. In this environment with slack in the economy being steadily absorbed, the Bank

of Canada is likely to begin raising interest rates midway through 2015.

Provincial Economy

For 20 consecutive months, Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate has been the lowest in Canada.

The unemployment rate in September was 4.2 percent. Nationally, the unemployment rate was

7.0 percent. The unemployment rate for youth was 8.9 per cent, the lowest among all provinces

and well below the national average of 13.4 per cent.

Following 33 months of consecutive increases, employment in August reached 572,400, an all-

time high for the month of August. Full-time employment increased by 11,600 over August

2013, reaching 489,400. Job growth was the second highest among all provinces.

Strong year-over-year employment growth in the goods-producing sector was due to strong gains

in agriculture (up 4,700), construction (up 4,400), and forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas (up

1,600)1.

Figure 1 highlights the upward trend in employment over the past two years.

1 http://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2014/september/05/labour-stats, accessed Sep. 29/14.

2

Figure 1. Saskatchewan Employment and Unemployment Rates.

Source: Labour Market Information Division. Service Canada.

http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/lmi/publications/bulletins/sk/sk-lmb-201409.pdf.

BMO Capital Markets projects GDP growth for the province to be 2.7% in 2015. This rate of

growth should sustain current employment levels.

Provincial Population

From July 2013 to July 2014, population growth was above the national level (+1.1%) in

Saskatchewan (+1.7%)2. Growth in the other prairie provinces was also above the national

average.

In 2013-14, net international migration accounted for the majority of the total increase in the

provincial population. North Battleford continues to be one of the top destinations form

immigrants coming to the province.

Provincial Construction Sector

Non-residential construction employment has increased by 50 percent since 2007. The

construction workforce is expected to remain above historical levels. With a peak in residential

construction in 2013 the housing labour force will shift to renovation work.

Just under 7000 construction workers are expected to retire over the next decade, with

retirements spread across all construction trades and occupations3.

2 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140926/dq140926b-eng.htm?HPA

3

When the expected increase in commodity prices occurs, activity in mining and possible pipeline

projects will sustain nonresidential construction. In the meantime, as known major projects are

completed, a slowdown is forecast. The demand for trades and occupations in engineering and

industrial construction is expected to increase and peak in 2017.

BuildForce Canada predicts 2014 to 2023 will have fewer cyclical peaks and troughs in

construction employment than the previous decade. Saskatchewan will be competing with other

industries and provinces to attract qualified, skilled and experienced construction workers.

Consultations with industry, contractors, and labour groups helped them forecast demand. The

most important change will be a shift from the large engineering and utility projects to

commercial and related construction. Factoring in retirements and workers leaving to other

provinces for large projects, they ranked the demand for occupations as shown in Tables 1 to 34.

A ranking of three is consistent with periods where the local workforce will not meet demands,

and five is where labour force shortages will force recruiting from distant markets.

Table 1. Occupations ranked between 3 and 4 for the period 2015 and 2018 (high demand). Boilermakers

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics

Heavy equipment operators

Heavy duty mechanics

Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters

Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics

Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

Truck drivers

Table 2. Occupations with average ranking of 3 for the period 2015 and 2018 (mod to high demand). Concrete finishers

Contractors and supervisors

Crane operators

Floor covering installers

Glaziers

Insulators

Painters and decorators

Residential and commercial installers

Residential home builders and renovators

Roofers and shinglers

Table 3. Occupations that have a ranking of 2 in atleast one of the years in the time period (moderate). Bricklayers

Carpenters

Construction estimators and managers

Electricians

Plasterers, drywall installers, and finishers

Plumbers

Sheet metal workers

Tilesetters

Trades helpers and labourers

Welders

3 https://www.constructionforecasts.ca/en/media/press-

releases?field_press_release_date_value%2525255Bvalue%2525255D%2525255Byear%2525255D=2014. 4 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward. Saskatchewan. 2014-2023 Key Highlights. BuildForce Canada.

4

Figure 2 shows in the last ten years growth in apprentices has been in construction trades.

Electricians and plumbers accounted for almost half of the 3800 increase in the number of

apprentices.

Figure 2. Registered Apprentices by Trade, Saskatchewan

Source: SaskTrends Monitor, May 2014.

Forestry Sector

After peaking in 2003, 42% of the forestry labour force was lost by the time it bottomed in

20095. The Forestry Products Association of Canada reported over 40% of the forestry workforce

requires a university degree, and a greater proportion of workers require various certificates and

licenses. In addition, the workforce is aging and a substantial number of retirees will need to be

replaced. However, recent job losses has had a negative impact on recruitment by creating a

hesitancy for youth to enter the industry.

Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce Labour Market Survey In the spring, the Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce surveyed its membership. The number

of respondents having a job remain unfilled due to a shortage of qualified workers reached 55%

in this survey, up from 44% a year ago. Easier access to skills training was identified as the

5 Forestry Products Association of Canada. 2011. The Next Generation of Canada’s Forest Products Industry.

Sustainability Report.

5

number one service that, if enhanced, could assist respondent with their labour issues. The other

top labour issues were “more technical/college grads available” and “stronger essential skills in

K-12 education”.

Manufacturing

Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters completed their 2014 Management Issues Survey6. More

than half the respondents reported labour shortages. Almost 60% of companies identified

attracting or retaining skilled labour as one of the top challenges they face. Forty-four percent

believe this situation worsened over the past three years.

When asked if their company faced immediate labour and/or skills shortages, 56% responded

that they already deal with shortages. Shortages were most frequently reported by companies

operating in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The area with the most challenges was for production

workers – machine operators and those in skilled trades. They also expect that the need to

management and administration workers will be high five years from now.

Regional Perspective Major projects planned or under construction are shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Major Projects Inventory, 2014.

Company Project Location Value

($millions)

Phase

LMG Oil Tank Mfg plant Battleford 5.0 Construction

Willow Cree Healing Lodge Addition Duck Lake 6.8 Construction

Town of Meadow Lake Sewage lift station Meadow 4.0 Planning

Prairie North Long term care Lake 25.0 Planning

MLTC Biomass Power Plant 150.0 Planning

600653 Sk Ltd Franchise Hotel North 10.0 Proposed

BTC Hotel Battleford 10.0 Planning

Co-op Gas bar 6.0 Construction

Co-op 8 lane cardlock facility 2.0 Proposed

Northwest Community Futures Conference centre 4.0 Construction

BTEC Education facility 3.3 fundraising

U of S Feed Research Centre 13.3 Construction

Prairie North Sask Hospital TBD Planning

Ministry of Central Services Kramer Place upgrade 7.5 Construction

SaskEnergy Compressor Station Pierceland 2.0 Planning

Town of Unity Community hall Unity 3.0 Construction Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of the Economy.

As of Sep. 30th

, the City of Meadow Lake collected over $6.2 million in building permits. In all

of 2013, a total of $6.6 million was collected.

Sask Hospital Update

Three qualified teams participated in a competitive selection process to build the new Sask

Hospital – Integrated Correctional Facility. The new facility will include a 188-bed replacement

6 20/20 Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters’ Magazine. Oct. 2014.

6

for the existing 156-bed Saskatchewan Hospital and a 96-room correctional facility. After

evaluating the responses, the teams invited to move forward to the Request for Proposal stage are

Access Prairies Partnership, Integrated Team Solutions, and Plenary Health North Battleford LP.

The new integrated facility will be built on the existing hospital grounds near the current hospital

building. Construction of the new facility is expected to begin in summer 2015 with completion

targeted for summer 2018. The cost of the facility will be determined through the competitive

process.

Oil and Gas Sector

The Petroleum Services Association of Canada surveyed its members in March 2014 and found:

65% faced labour shortages

The top challenge facing companies today was human resources for 78% of the 260

respondents.

Figure 3 shows the locations of oil reserves in the province. Huskey is taking advantage of

smaller steam-assisted operations linked with existing pipelines to their Lloydminster upgrader.

Huskey is underway with construction of the 10,000-barrel-per-day Edam East project and the

10,000-barrel per-day Vawn project. The first flow of oil expected is in 2016. In discussions with

Huskey , the economic development officer for the City of North Battleford heard they are

having difficulty recruiting power engineers, especial those with level 3 certification.

Figure 3 shows the oil plays in the province. The oil in the College’s region is heavy oil.

Regional Occupation Profile

Table 5 shows the number of employees within the region for selected occupations. Sales,

service and business services make up the largest portion. A diverse economy provides

employment opportunities for the full range of occupations.

7

Table 5. Number of Employees in the Region in Selected Occupations.

Occupation # # %

Management occupations 960 10

Senior management occupations 30

Specialized middle management occupations 195

Middle management in retail and wholesale and customer services 320

Middle management trades, transportation, production and utilities 415

Business, finance and administration occupations 1,195 12

Professional occupations in business and finance 180

Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations 390

Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 100

Office support occupations 370

Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 145

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 220 2

Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 105

Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 120

Health occupations 1,005 10

Professional occupations in nursing 330

Professional occupations in health 105

Technical occupations in health 270

Assisting occupations in support of health services 305

Occupations in education, law and social, community and gov’t 1,570 16

Professional occupations in education services 590

Professional occupations in law and social, community and government 325

Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education 350

Occupations in front-line public protection services 100

Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support 210

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 155 2

Professional occupations in art and culture 45

Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 105

Sales and service occupations 2,510 26

Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 135

Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 360

Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade 440

Service representatives and other customer and personal services 470

Sales support occupations 335

Service support and other service occupations 755

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 1,440 15

Industrial, electrical and construction trades 575

Maintenance and equipment operation trades 300

Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers 70

Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance 395

Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations 110

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 320 3

Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, and ag 35

Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production 165

Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 120

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 315 3

Processing, mfg and utilities supervisors and control operators 85

Processing and mfg machine operators and related production workers 45

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 175

Total - Occupations 9,690 100

Source: National Household Survey, Statistics Canada.

8

“Alberta’s Short-term Employment Forecast 2014-2016” has identified several high demand

occupations. These are shown in Table 6, along with the number employed in Alberta to provide

perspective on the number of potential number of staff required.

Table 6. High Demand Occupations, as identified by Alberta Government.

Occupation # employed

Administrative Officers 34,500

Welders 25,900

Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade 18,300

Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics 16,600

Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 14,200

Civil Engineers 12,400

Hairstylists and Barbers 11,700

Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers 11,400

Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers 11,000

Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics 10,800

Residential and Commercial Installers and Services 9,400

Mechanical Engineers 7,200

Electrical and Electronics Engineers 6,600

Accommodation Service Managers 6,500

Computer Network Technicians 6,200

Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians 5,900

Supervisors, General Office and Admin Support Clerks 5,300

Chefs 4,800

Senior Managers - Financial, Communications and Other Business Services 4,600

Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors 4,600

Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics 4,500

Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment 4,500

Testers and Inspectors 4,400

Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians 4,000

Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 3,700

Crane Operators 3,200

Construction Estimators 2,900

Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians 2,700

Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers 2,300 Adapted from Alberta’s short-term employment forecast 2014-2016.

9

MLTC Post-Secondary Counselors Focus Group On October 6

th a focus group was held at Meadow Lake Campus. Highlights of this meeting are

listed below:

Waterhen (Sharon Corrigal):

BER is needed, and Enhanced Service Delivery (ESD) funding is available for 18 – 24

year olds

They prefer on-reserve program delivery. For example, SIIT’s mobile welding lab was a

request they were pursuing

Safety ticket training on reserve

Basic computer training

Firearm safety

Boat safety.

Flying Dust

Security guard training (Alberta certified)

Two year certificate in Social Work

Millwright

Makwa

SaskTel wiring program. Some discussion was held about developing short term

programs that would funnel students into the crown corps. ESD funding would qualify.

Linesman

Scaffolder

Judy Fiddler Cold Lake region is expected to have the greatest number of jobs created in the next few years.

Post-Secondary Partnership Program. Institutions will develop a budget for a given program.

Post-sec counselors will use this budget to apply for funding. For example, Heavy equipment

operator program was recently approved for delivery at Clearwater First Nation.

April is when their funding comes in so she encouraged counselors to plan their programming in

advance and be prepared to submit applications.

Carol Ann Dekker

Carol reviewed the new Job Grant program. Temporary foreign workers are now restricted to a

maximum of 10% of a company’s workforce.

She talked about two programs with 28 students in each program being planned to prepare staff

for Tim Hortons in Meadow Lake. $213,000 budget. Twelve weeks in classroom followed by

four months in practicum with job coach.

Adrian Fiddler

ASETS program for those with treaty status living off-reserve in the area, as far south as Glaslyn.

There are several pots of money that can be accessed. Programming that benefits all 9 bands can

access the central pot. For example, HEO was funded in Island Lake this year from this pot.

10

ESD

For 18 – 24 year olds, on Social Assistance. They stay on SA while going to school and get an

additional $20 per day for attendance. There is currently 8 students using this program at

Meadow Lake Campus. In four years, they are saying there will be no more SA.

Training Needs

Cooking (short order or institutional)

HEO (needs to be accepted in Alberta. The construction safety course component must

comply)

“Camp Life” Blue Quills ran this program to give people an idea of what it is like to work

in a camp setting.

Access to Health Care (like at Northlands and in Prince Albert). Students upgrade their

marks and prepare to enter health care programs.

Math upgrading

Biomass generator – training needed for the new biomass generator

General home maintenance

ECE

CCA

TA

Rehab worker

Powerline technician

Truck Driver

Corrections Worker

Insulators

Judy Bear promoted an upcoming program to be delivered in Meadow Lake by Northern

Industrial Insulation Contractors in partnership with MLTC. This is a four week program training

students to become insulators. This will be the second intake for this program.

Northlands College

Louise (Buffalo Narrows) and Carson (La Ronge) provided a listing of upcoming programs:

Skills

CCA

Carpentry level 1 (10 students at Pinehouse)

DSW

ECE (for employed students. They travel to P.A. every 5th

week for a full weekend of training)

Electrician

EA

Food Service Cook

Institutional Cooking (free rent in the student residence for cooking students)

HETTT

Industrial Mechanic in 2015-16 to prepare for hydro project near Black Lake

Pre-employment Carpentry (La Ronge)

Welding

11

Workforce Attachment

Academic preparedness for the trades (Stanley Mission)

Certified workforce education program (Pelican)

Diamond Drill helper (Deschambault)

Drivers

Heavy Equipment (La Loche)

Residential Renovation and Construction (Cumberland)

General Home Maintenance

Scaffolding (Pelican)

Stucco (Pelican)

Safety tickets

Truck Driver (1A)

Power Lineman (La Ronge) Adding 3 weeks upfront to do physical fitness, socioeconomic stuff

and employment readiness. This is a pilot project. They want to start April 2015 and do three

programs per year.

PN

Mental Health and Addictions

RN

Health Career Access

Business Survey, October 2014. For the first time, businesses with fewer than five employees (according to CanadaInfo Business

CD) were surveyed with the College’s Training Needs Survey. A total of 225 surveys were

mailed out late September. Only twelve responses were received by Oct. 10th

.

Interestingly, a quarter of the responses were from Insurance and another 25% was from

Municipal Government.

Insurance

Collectively, they plan to hire one insurance broker and one insurance sales rep. Technology and

computer training was mentioned as challenges. As in past years, CAIB classes were identified

as a training need.

Municipal Gov’t

Village worker and water treatment and wastewater personnel were identified a difficult-to-hire.

Challenges include infrastructure and related maintenance. Over the next few years, road

maintenance was identified as a challenge. One town suggested training in short courses (one

week or less) in roads, welding, general machine maintenance and safety. Another community

said they access SIAST and ATAP now that the College office is closed.

Autobody

Although only two currently employed, the one respondent says they would hire two autobody

techs, two autobody primers, and one office worker. The main difficulty recruiting was attracting

12

staff to a small town. The request for help from NWRC was to promote the industry to high

school students.

Legal

Difficulty hiring a legal secretary or paralegal (one position) was reported by the one respondent

in the legal profession.

Car Dealership

Two mechanics and one autobody tech were reported to be difficult to hire. A challenge is trying

to pay enough wages to keep them away from the oil patch. NWRC can help by promoting the

trades.

Water, Sewer and General Excavating

This company could hire one supervisor, one foreman, and three equipment operators in the next

two year. The challenge for them is finding qualified workers. Over the next few years they see

challenges in safety training, and constantly changing regulations with sewer and water. They

suggested NWRC incorporate on-the-job training in courses, if not done already.

Agriculture

Somehow a large ag company received the survey. They have 70 staff and have difficulty hiring

machine operators (10) and managers of retail locations (25 depending on turnover). Major

challenges include knowledge of industry for managers, and skill level of operators. Over the

next three years challenges will likely include hiring operators at a reasonable cost, hiring people

that know the industry, and wages. The wanted to know if NWRC trained on agricultural

equipment.

Dental

A very popular respondent in last year’s survey, a small dental office responded this year.

Ironically, they currently did not have any difficulty hiring staff, although they commented that

young people with qualifications do not like to come to small towns.