Environmental Stability of Forest Corridors Environmental Stability of Forest Corridors in the in the

Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) RegionRegion

R. Welch University of Alabama – R. Welch University of Alabama – HuntsvilleHuntsville

V. S. Manoharan, U. S. Nair, R. Lawton, V. S. Manoharan, U. S. Nair, R. Lawton, J.Mecikalski, A. Song, T. Sever,J.Mecikalski, A. Song, T. Sever,

D. Irwin, R. Griffin, T. Berendes,D. Irwin, R. Griffin, T. Berendes,

D. Berendes, S. Asefi, D.K. RayD. Berendes, S. Asefi, D.K. Ray

First Year ResultsFirst Year Results

The proposed Mesoamerican Biological The proposed Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) is an ambitious effort to Corridor (MBC) is an ambitious effort to stem the erosion of biodiversity in one of stem the erosion of biodiversity in one of the world’s biologically richest regionsthe world’s biologically richest regions.. The intent is to The intent is to connect large existing connect large existing parks and reserves with new parks and reserves with new protected areas by means of an protected areas by means of an extensive network of biological extensive network of biological corridorscorridors within Mesoamerica/Central within Mesoamerica/Central America to create an environment which America to create an environment which provides better prospects for the long-provides better prospects for the long-term survival of native species while also term survival of native species while also addressing the region’s socioeconomic addressing the region’s socioeconomic

needs.needs.

To what extent are land use change To what extent are land use change disturbances affecting the disturbances affecting the

environmental stability of protected environmental stability of protected regions and corridors in the MBC?regions and corridors in the MBC?

Compared to forested habitats in the same life zone, dry season deforested habitats have:

• higher daytime temperatures, • are less cloudy, • lower estimated soil moisture and • lower values of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

The result is hotter and drier air over deforested regions, with lower values of cloud formation and precipitation.

Holdridge Life ZonesHoldridge Life ZonesEach of the Life Zones is named so as to suggest a vegetation Each of the Life Zones is named so as to suggest a vegetation

formation. formation.

Based on three climate parameters: Based on three climate parameters:

• 1) 1) Mean Annual BiotemperatureMean Annual Biotemperature; ; – Mean annual biotemperature is the sum of daily Mean annual biotemperature is the sum of daily

mean temperatures between 0° and 30°C divided mean temperatures between 0° and 30°C divided by 365. Biotemperature defines the latitudinal or by 365. Biotemperature defines the latitudinal or altitudinal belts of life zones.altitudinal belts of life zones.

• 2) 2) Annual PrecipitationAnnual Precipitation; ;

• 3) 3) Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) RatioPotential Evapotranspiration (PET) Ratio.. – PET is a simple empirical linear function of PET is a simple empirical linear function of

biotemperature, and the PET-ratio is defined as PET biotemperature, and the PET-ratio is defined as PET divided by annual precipitation. The PET-ratio divided by annual precipitation. The PET-ratio defines humidity provincesdefines humidity provinces

GuatemalaClimatological Average Rainfall ( ) for March (mm)

HOLDRIDGE LIFE ZONES Rainfall observed over Forested Areas

Rainfall observed over Deforested Areas

Subtropical Lower Montane Moist Forest

23.14 13.63 N=7 14.79 6.65 N=19

Subtropical Moist Forest39.00 37.66 N=11 14.34 11.45 N=38

Subtropical Lower Montane Wet Forest

65.90 70.57 N=10 32.00 33.70 N=5

Subtropical Wet Forest74.79 39.28 N=41 58.07 31.61 N=58

Subtropical Rain Forest 105.17 50.00 N=6 - -

CF = Climatological cloud frequency 2000-2003 (%); LST = Land surface temperature (K); NDVI = Normalized difference vegetation index on a scale 0-1; and

SLM = Soil moisture on a scale 0-1; N = Sample size.

Holdridge Life Zone

Ecosystem Type

CF LST NDVI SLM N

Subtropical Lower Montane Moist Forest

Evergreen Needleleaf

31.28 16.35

304.3 1.80

0.52 0.090.71

0.18496

Evergreen Broadleaf

31.26 11.58

304.4 2.06

0.53 0.100.68

0.201482

Deciduous Broadleaf

32.39 13.07

304.6 2.09

0.52 0.100.67

0.20377

Woodlands 24.05 11.94

305.9 2.41

0.49 0.090.56 0.21

3919

Wooded Grasslands

22.62 10.99

307.4 2.47

0.44 0.090.44

0.192288

Grasslands 21.90 12.63

307.7 2.33

0.44 0.090.40

0.181562

HYPOTHESIS: Central American HYPOTHESIS: Central American deforestation and land use change deforestation and land use change

have altered regional and local have altered regional and local climates in ways that influence the climates in ways that influence the

conservation utility of conservation utility of MBC core elements and corridorsMBC core elements and corridors

• Precipitation RecordsPrecipitation Records• Convective InitializationConvective Initialization• GEMRAMS ModelGEMRAMS Model

IF SO: Can we predict future local IF SO: Can we predict future local climatic conditions and the type climatic conditions and the type

of vegetation likely to exist in the of vegetation likely to exist in the altered landscapes?altered landscapes?

COUNTRIES No of sites withMonthly data

No of sites withDaily data

Years of data availability

BELIZE 76 85 1952-2006

GUATEMALA 266 20 1970-present

EL SALVADOR - 40 1942-2006

NICARAGUA 220 - -

HONDURAS - 13 1944-2006

COSTA RICA 272 890 1936-2007

PANAMA 187 113 1975-2006

Central American Precipitation Data Central American Precipitation Data AcquiredAcquired

Precipitation QuestionsPrecipitation Questions

• To what extent does dry season To what extent does dry season precipitation decrease due to land use precipitation decrease due to land use disturbances? disturbances?

• Are some Life Zones and Ecosystems more Are some Life Zones and Ecosystems more sensitive to land use disturbances?sensitive to land use disturbances?

• Are there important scales of deforestation Are there important scales of deforestation which are important? E.g. ~ 1000 kmwhich are important? E.g. ~ 1000 km22

• Do changes upwind impact the Do changes upwind impact the precipitation in protected regions?precipitation in protected regions?

30-Year Cumulus Cloud 30-Year Cumulus Cloud Analysis:Analysis:

MBC Region 1977-2007MBC Region 1977-2007

Goal: Develop a 30-year analysis of dry-season (Feb, Mar, Apr) cumulus cloud frequency towards testing the hypothesis that end-of dry season cumulus clouds are decreasing in coverage, to imply a lengthening of the dry season over MBC regions. A trend of such nature would suggest increasing stress on native flora and fauna in these biologically sensitive regions of Central America.

• GOES-8 and GOES-12• (~1800-2100 UTC; Noon-2 pm Local Time) for each

February, March and April, 1977-2007

Cloud Masking Procedure

Visible (above) plus GOESIR channels 6.5, 10.7 and 13.3 m via Berendes et al. (2008) StandardDeviation Limited Adaptive Clustering algorithm.Example CCM

(right).Berendes, T. A., J. R. Mecikalski, W. M. Mackenzie, Jr., K. M. Bedka, and U. S. Nair, 2008: Convective cloud identification and

classification in daytime satellite imagery using standard deviation limited adaptive clustering. Submitted J. Geosphys. Res.

Cloud-Top Cooling Rate Example

Cloud-top cooling rates >-4 C/15-minAre highly correlated with the firstOccurrence of >35 dBZ rainfall echo atGround within 1 hour.

Defines “Convective Initiation”

Roberts and Rutledge (2003)

Ongoing Work & Immediate Plans:

• Develop correlation between cumulus cloud frequency and land-use, and especially with respect to the Life Zone regions.

• Process GOES-8 and -12 data from 2007, 2002, 1997, 1992, 1987, 1982 and 1977 to assess if there is a significant signal of change in low-cloud frequency with respect to the Life Zone regions.

• If a signal exists, process data from February-March-April for all years (77-07), for selected times of day (e.g., 20 UTC), to assess the trend in low-clouds.

• By late 2008, develop methods forEstimating if the cumulus that do existGrow to produce rainfall.

• Use the algorithm of Roberts andRutldge (2003) to relate large cloud-topCooling rates for cumulus to convectiveInitiation (>35 dBZ radar echoes).

• Acquire GOES-7/-8/-12 10.7 m dataFor estimating cloud-top cooling.

GEMRAMSGEMRAMSImpact of deforestation on Impact of deforestation on

MBCMBC • GEMRAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System GEMRAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

(RAMS) coupled with General Energy and Mass (RAMS) coupled with General Energy and Mass Transport Model (GEMTM) (Beltran and Pielke, Sr)Transport Model (GEMTM) (Beltran and Pielke, Sr)

• GEMRAMS simulates dynamic interactions between GEMRAMS simulates dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and growing canopythe atmosphere and growing canopy

• Impact of deforestation in the areas surrounding MBCImpact of deforestation in the areas surrounding MBC

• Use GEMRAMS to simulate how the vegetation in the Use GEMRAMS to simulate how the vegetation in the MBC areas for different scenarios of deforestation in MBC areas for different scenarios of deforestation in the surroundingsthe surroundings

GEMRAMSGEMRAMS

• RAMS simulates RAMS simulates mesoscale mesoscale atmospheric processesatmospheric processes

• GEMTM computes daily GEMTM computes daily gross photosynthesis gross photosynthesis considering C3 and C4 considering C3 and C4 photosynthesisphotosynthesis

• Available carbon pool Available carbon pool is then allocated to is then allocated to stem, leaves, roots stem, leaves, roots and reproductive and reproductive organsorgans

NARR Data

USGS TopoMODIS Land use

MODIS Land products

FAO Soil dataNARR Soil moisture

RAMS

LEAF2GEMTM

INPUTS

Results from this Results from this study will be placed study will be placed

into SERVIRinto SERVIRother than the Precipitation Recordsother than the Precipitation Records

Questions?Questions?