Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018 1 Envisioning Loudoun - 2040 New Comprehensive Plan Review Committee About Us 2 Loudoun County Preservation & Conservation Coalition • Formed in 2007 • 40+ non-profit, non-partisan organizations; • 4,000+ individual members from all parts of Loudoun County; • Dedicated to preservation of Loudoun’s environment & heritage assets. TONIGHT: Transition Policy Area of the October 23, 2018 draft of the Envision Loudoun 2040 plan. Dec. 2018 – Jan. 2019 Revised plan to be sent to Board of Supervisors ~ FEB-MARCH, 2019 Another public hearing before plan is adopted. Our job: monitor and speak out with our views.
Transcript
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
1
Envisioning Loudoun - 2040
New Comprehensive Plan Review Committee
For
About Us
2
Loudoun County Preservation &
Conservation Coalition • Formed in 2007 • 40+ non-profit, non-partisan organizations; • 4,000+ individual members from all parts of
Loudoun County; • Dedicated to preservation of Loudoun’s
environment & heritage assets.
TONIGHT:
Transition Policy Area of the October 23, 2018 draft of the Envision Loudoun 2040 plan. Dec. 2018 – Jan. 2019
Revised plan to be sent to Board of Supervisors
~ FEB-MARCH, 2019
Another public hearing before plan is adopted.
Our job: monitor and speak out with
our views.
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
2
For
Protect Mountain
slopes, Streams &
Wildlife
Reduce congestion, Improve safety, Increase mass transit, ped bike trails
Provide more Open Space, Trails & parks
Grow in UPA, Manage in SPA, Maintain in TPA, Reduce in RPA
Manage Growth
Protect Environment & Heritage Assets
Manage Water Air, Energy, & Green space
Improve Transportation
3
Public’s 4,800 1st Round Comments: Draft Envision Plan
Provide more Open space, Trails & Parks
For
Public’s 3rd Round Comments on Draft Envision Plan
4
Of the 1700 public comments, 81% in line with following statements:
KEY THEMES
“Envision Loudoun 2040
must demonstrate how it meets the
needs of citizens, with guiding principles and more specific policies, strategies
and actions.”
• Manage future growth using data & analysis of infrastructure and economic factors
• Keep Loudoun unique & desirable; Protect & enhance natural, cultural & historic features
• Improve quality of life for citizens; Provide measures to ensure improvements between now and 2040
• Demonstrate accountability to the public.
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
3
For
Critical Question: Loudoun at a cross roads
Special places /
Managed growth?
5
Or Any Place USA /
Unconstrained growth?
OR
For
• Green Infrastructure
• Protect Heritage & Environment
• Public Facilities • Fiscal Impact
• Transportation • Manage Energy, Air & Water
• Housing • Economic
Strategy Manage Growth
Ensure Accountability
Maintain Quality of
Life
Keep Loudoun Unique & Desirable
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
4
For
Understanding the Numbers: RGP 2016 Snapshot Residential Units at Build Out by Revised General Plan Policy Area–July, 2016
Example: Scenario 1, if all pipeline and Zoned (By Right) Development occurs, then end up with growth of ~150,000 residents and need additional $646 Mil in County Budget & 6 new High Schools.
How Much can Loudoun Afford to Grow?
Numbers outlined in Red shows input variable. Other numbers shown in each Scenario are derived using trend data from historical growth
Reasonable growth targets (RGP/COG) keeps us in line with Regional Growth Trends of 1% to 1.5%
8
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
5
For
PLANNING COMMISSION – TPA OPTIONS
9
For
PLANNING COMMISSION – TPA OPTIONS
10
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
6
For
Housing Decision: Demand versus Capacity
“DEMAND” Based Analysis
Population
Housing “Demand”
Public Facility Capacity, Land
& Funding
11
Public Facility Capacity, Land
& Funding
Housing Capacity
Population
“CAPACITY” Based Analysis
Capacity Based: Maximum volume of products (e.g., houses) to be produced given available resources (funding, public facilities, level of services) to support quality of life for population.
Demand Based: Volume of products (e.g., houses) consumers are willing and able to purchase at a specific price, without regard to resources for public facilities or level of services.
For
12
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
7
For
Capital Needs Assessment: Facility Deficit Analysis
CNA provides “facility deficit analysis” by Geographical Planning Subareas
13
• Forecasted population growth;
• Identifies timing and placement of new capital facilities and proffers (if feasible);
• Feeder document to 6-Year Capital Improvement Program (CIP) financing plan.
• FY2021-2030 most current posted on Loudoun.gov.
For
Capital Needs Assessment: Public Facilities
Alphabetical
• Adolescent Ind. Living Facility • Adult Day Center • Community Park • Developmental Services Residence • District Park • Elementary School • Fire/Rescue Station • Library • Mental Health Residential Facility • Neighborhood Park • Park and Ride Spaces • Recreation Center • Regional Park • Satellite Maintenance Facility • Senior Center • Teen Center
14
RESIDENTIAL FACILITIES Residence - Adolescent Ind. Living Residential Facility - Developmental Services Residential Facility - Mental Health
ACTIVITY/DAY CENTERS Senior Center Adult Day Center Teen Center
SCHOOL/SERVICES Elementary School Fire/Rescue Station Library
PARKS & REC Community Park District Park Neighborhood Park Regional Park Recreation Center
OTHER FACILITIES Park and Ride Spaces Satellite Maintenance Facility
Public Facility Groupings
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
8
For
Existing RGP Deficits: Capital Needs Assessment 2021-2030
15
Existing RGP Deficits (2021) / Needs (2030):
Source: Adopted Capital Needs Assessment, 2021-2030* * Most current posted on Loudoun.gov
FACILITIES Southwest Route 7 West Northwest Rte 15 South Rte 15 North Leesburg Dulles Ashburn Sterling Potomac TOTAL
Residential Facility Totals
2021 1 4 2 7
2022-2030 1 1 2
Acres by 2030 0.25 1 1.75 0.5 3.5
Activity/Day Center Totals
2021 1 2 3
2022-2030 1 1
Acres by 2030 4 10 5 19
School/ Services Total
2021 1 1 2
2022-2030 2 2 4
Acres by 2030 25 5 30
Parks & Rec Total
2021 3 7 7 4 3 3 24
2022-2030 1 1 1 2 3 1 8
Acres by 2030 29 73 492 521 679 161 87 1969
Other Facilities Total
2021 1 1 2
2022-2030 1 1
Acres by 2030 4 4 8
TOTAL
2021 3 9 14 6 5 4 38 2022-2030 1 1 2 5 6 2 16
Acres by 2030
29 73 492.25 555 695.75 166.5 91 2029.5
For
16
Existing RGP Deficits/NEEDS by 2021
“SPIKE in first year projects represent: 1. demand for capital
facilities triggered due to population growth,
2. projects with funding delayed beyond end of 6-year CIP planning period.
DELAYS due to
1. fiscal constraints,
2. County’s debt cap limitations, and
3. County’s debt ratio policies to preserve County’s AAA Bond Rating.” (p.2)
Land Use & Growth Policies Drive Galloping Public Budget Expenditures
9.4% 10.3%
22.3%
9.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Operating Debt Service CIPContribution
Total Budget
Average Annual Increase in Loudoun County Budget Appropriates, FY2000-FY2019 Total Loudoun County
Government budgeted expenditures rose
• From $490 million in FY2000
• To $2,567 million in FY2019
• Led by growth in capital investment contributions (CIP) and debt service.
22 10% annual average since FY2000
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
12
For
Paying public expenditure bills – heavy tax hikes over
FY2000-2010
The average homeowner real property tax bill grew by an astonishing 10%
FY2000-FY2010 revenue generated largely by a rise in the millage (rate per $100 of valuation) BUT, since FY2010 average real property tax bill stagnated, as BOS consistently lowered the tax rate to compensate for changes in property values.
1,985
5,040 5,071
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY2000 FY2010 FY2019
Average Homeowner Annual Real Property Tax Bill FY2000-FY2019 (in US$)
23
For
Hooked on Growth
Half of growth in Total Local Tax Funding –
mostly from new development
Other half of growth - Local Tax Funding from Personal Property Taxes –
mostly from data centers
81.1
108.4 84.7
209.6
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
FY2015 FY2019
Loudoun Personal Property Taxes – Selected Categories FY2015 and FY2019 (Millions of US$)
Vehicles Computer Equipment 24
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sources of Growth in Total Taxable Real Property Value over FY2010-FY2018
New Development (land, structures, etc.)Property Revaluation
Since FY2010, BOS depended on new housing & commercial development
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
13
For
25
Loudoun’s Fiscal Future
Cure a lack of transparency & options;
Be clear about who will pay for 2040 Plan;
Demand sustainable fiscal strategy, not hooked on growth.
• Dennis Kruse, Bike Loudoun & Potomac Heritage Trails
• Al Van Huyck, Chair, Loudoun County Preservation & Conservation Coalition
• Paul Lawrence, Save Rural Loudoun
• Gem Bingol, Piedmont Environmental Council (PEC)
• Mayor Bridge Littleton, Coalition of Loudoun Towns (COLT)
• Catherine Amelink, Aldie Heritage Association
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
15
For
A Connected Network
of streams, forests, meadows, slopes, wetlands, limestone and open spaces.
Cheri Conca, Loudoun Wildlife Conservancy
Green Infrastructure
29
Benefits
Protects air and water quality & supply
Contributes to health and quality of life
Saves $ on energy use & stormwater management $
For
Loudoun’s watersheds already stressed and streams impaired. • What will 2040’s watershed &
streams conditions be? Need detailed policies, goals and metrics
to protect our green infrastructure, stream corridors and water quality.
30
Loudoun’s watershed & streams:
Crisis Conditions
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
16
For
Dennis Kruse, Bike Loudoun, Potomac Heritage Trails Strong Citizen Demand for Parks & Trails, but no Funds
31
Public Input • ~ 1000 comments on environment. • Requested more trails (hiking, walking,
equestrian), more bike paths & parks. – Analysis of Comments by Conservation and Preservation Coalition of Loudoun
Author: Owen Snyder
Open spaces and nature corridors rapidly disappearing due to development.
Envision Loudoun
Loudoun comprises 521 square
miles
Loudoun has 87 miles of hiking trails
yet only 1.6% of this is
public parkland
does not meet County standards
of 0.65 miles/ 1000 population (~226 mi for 380K people)
For
Support network of greenways to
become a premier county asset
32
Beauty of Loudoun County shared
via network of greenways for
ALL county residents.
1. Increased Economic Development
2. Increased Property Value
3. Increased Safety on Corridors
4. Protection of Natural Resources
5. Improved Health & Wellness
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
17
For
Al Van Huyck, Loudoun Coalition Chair
Rural Housing Solutions
33
Higher density residential zoning only permitted with adequate transportation and infrastructure (e.g., around Silver Line);
Encourage land preservation using such tools as Conservation Easements & Transfer of Development Rights (TDRs)
Support Performance Standards for rural economy uses such as road safety, lot size, proximity to event centers; include noise and lighting standards.
Support Design Standards for Rural Economy Uses and residential cluster development in the rural and transition planning areas.
Support development of trails and connecting green corridors for hikers, bikers, horses, and wildlife deemed a high priority, such as Emerald Ribbons.
Support recommended changes to Envision outlined by the Loudoun Coalition.
For
Paul Lawrence, Save Rural Loudoun
Land Preservation Programs
34 Agricultural Districts
Conservation Easements
Land Use Taxation
Ad Valorem Tax Rate
Ag/Forestry Income proof
required
Not Permanent
Agricultural & Forestal Districts
Land Use Taxation
No ag/forestal income proof
required
Not Permanent
Conservation Easement Donation
Land Use Taxation
Federal Tax savings / State
Tax credits PERMANENT
Purchase of Development rights (PDR)
Gov’t acquires development
rights
Funded by taxpayer dollars
PERMANENT
Transfer of Development Rights (TDR)
Owner sells development
rights
Funded by purchasing developer
PERMANENT
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
18
For
Transition Policy Area as currently proposed:
• Undeveloped or underdeveloped areas are divided into 23 land bays for development at varying levels of higher density.
• Includes two rural areas for higher density residential and light industrial development.
• Build-out numbers vary significantly-from today and in proposed plan.
Gem Bingol, Piedmont Environmental Council
35
For
Gem Bingol, Piedmont Environmental Council
Transition Policy Area
Limit allowable densities
Firm, clear policies required in land bays and where suburban densities to be allowed.
Provide Performance & Design guidelines
Unique performance criteria & design guidelines needed to achieve diversity of choices.
Delete Mixed Use Commercial for Route 50
36
Prohibit Land Transfer from Rural Policy Area Dangerous precedent Preserve open space between Leesburg and Suburban East
Aldie Community Mtg, 11/13/2018
19
For
Mayor Bridge Littleton, Coalition of Loudoun Towns (COLT)
Towns & Joint Land Management Areas
37
• Mayors of 7 Town – all in Rural Policy Area • Major concerns with TPA expansion plans • Met with Planning Commission Sept. 27th o Concerns: costs, traffic, threats to way of life o PC challenged COLT for alternative
• Submitted alternate plan to PC o Shifts units from TPA to SPA o Existing zoning: redevelopment o Revitalizes eastern Loudoun, inc. affordability o Substantial savings / infrastructure exists o Raises value of resident & commercial property
TOWNS
For
Mayor Bridge Littleton, Coalition of Loudoun Towns (COLT)
Towns & Joint Land Management Areas
38
Fiscal Impact – Path to
Bankruptcy
Residential Development is largest cost driver for
county Avg home=$5,016 real estate taxes
Avg home has 1.2 students, cost per student is $13,800.
May Comp Plan draft significantly
increases the number of houses
Tischler Study: Housing services will create more
cost than revenues* TPA Net Cost: -$700m, RPA Net
Costs: -$771m, Total -$1.47b
Debt of $1.4b, plans to add $1.2b over
next 5 years = $2.6b, 85%↑
Moody’s Credit Rating: “Could cause
a county credit downgrade
*October Draft is even worse, with an additional 20,000 units over May Plan Note: No fiscal Impact Analysis of most recent draft
