EPA Staff Technical Report: Cost and Effectiveness Estimates of Technologies Used to Reduce Light-duty Vehicle Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EPA Staff Technical Report:

Cost and Effectiveness Estimates of

Technologies Used to Reduce Light-duty

Vehicle Carbon Dioxide Emissions

NOTICE

This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.

EPA420-R-08-008 March 2008

Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1

1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 2

1.1 Fuel Economy Certification Data ................................................................................................2

1.2 Reports and Papers in the Literature............................................................................................ 3

1.3 Confidential Data from Vehicle Manufacturers and Component Suppliers................................ 4

2 CO2 Reduction for Individual Vehicle Technologies........................................................................... 5

2.1 Baseline Definition and Vehicle Classes..................................................................................... 5

2.2 Summary of Estimates................................................................................................................. 6

2.3 Engine Technologies ................................................................................................................... 8

2.3.1 Low-Friction Lubricants ......................................................................................................... 8

2.3.2 Engine Friction Reduction ......................................................................................................8

2.3.3 Variable Valve Timing Systems ............................................................................................. 8

2.3.3.1 Intake Camshaft Phasing (ICP) ...................................................................................... 8

2.3.3.2 Coupled Camshaft Phasing (CCP) ................................................................................. 9

2.3.3.3 Dual (Independent) Camshaft Phasing (DCP)................................................................ 9

2.3.4 Engine Cylinder Deactivation ................................................................................................. 9

2.3.5 Variable Valve Lift Systems ................................................................................................. 10

2.3.5.1 Discrete Variable Valve Lift......................................................................................... 10

2.3.5.2 Continuous Variable Valve Lift ................................................................................... 10

2.3.6 Camless Valve Actuation Systems........................................................................................ 10

2.3.7 Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection Technology.......................................................... 11

2.3.8 Lean-Burn Gasoline Direct Injection Technology ................................................................ 11

2.3.9 Gasoline Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition ........................................................ 12

2.3.10 Gasoline Turbocharging and Downsizing ........................................................................ 13

2.3.11 Diesel Engine.................................................................................................................... 13

2.3.11.1 Lean NOx Trap Catalyst aftertreatment ....................................................................... 14

2.3.11.2 Selective Catalytic Reduction NOx Aftertreatment ..................................................... 15

2.3.12 E20-E30 Optimized Ethanol Engines ............................................................................... 15

2.4 Transmission Technologies ....................................................................................................... 15

2.4.1 Automatic 5-speed Transmissions ........................................................................................ 15

2.4.2 Aggressive Shift Logic.......................................................................................................... 16

2.4.3 Early Torque Converter Lockup ........................................................................................... 16

2.4.4 Automatic 6-, 7- and 8-speed Transmissions ........................................................................17

2.4.5 Automated (shift) Manual Transmissions .............................................................................17

2.4.6 Continuously Variable Transmissions .................................................................................. 18

2.4.7 Manual (clutch shifted) 6-, 7-, and 8-speed Transmissions .................................................. 19

2.5 Hybrid Vehicle Technologies.................................................................................................... 19

2.5.1 Integrated Starter Generator w/ Idle-Off ............................................................................... 20

2.5.2 Integrated Motor Assist (IMA)/Integrated Starter-Alternator-Dampener (ISAD) Hybrid.... 20

2.5.3 Power-Split Hybrids.............................................................................................................. 22

2.5.4 Two-Mode Hybrids............................................................................................................... 25

2.5.5 Full-Series Hydraulic Hybrids .............................................................................................. 26

2.5.6 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles .......................................................................................... 26

2.6 Full Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................................ 28

2.7 Vehicle Accessories................................................................................................................... 29

2.7.1 Electric Accessories and High Efficiency Alternator............................................................ 29

2.7.2 Electric Power Steering for 12V and 42V systems ............................................................... 30

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2.7.3 Upgrade Electrical Systems to 42V ...................................................................................... 30

2.8 Other Vehicle Technologies ...................................................................................................... 30

2.8.1 Aerodynamic Drag Force Reduction..................................................................................... 30

2.8.2 Low Rolling Resistance Tires ............................................................................................... 30

2.8.3 Low Drag Brakes .................................................................................................................. 31

2.8.4 Secondary Axle Disconnect (front axle for ladder frame and rear axle for unibody frame).31 2.8.5 Weight Reduction.................................................................................................................. 31

3 Synergistic Effects of Combining Multiple CO2 Reducing Technologies ......................................... 33

3.1 EPAs Lumped Parameter Approach for Determining Effectiveness Synergies....................... 34

3.2 Ricardos Vehicle Simulation.................................................................................................... 36

3.2.1 Description of Ricardos Report ........................................................................................... 37

3.2.1.1 Determination of representative vehicle classes........................................................... 38

3.2.1.2 Description of Baseline Vehicle Models ...................................................................... 39

3.2.1.3 Technologies Considered by EPA and Ricardo in the Vehicle Simulation.................. 39

3.2.1.4 Choice of Technology Packages................................................................................... 41

3.2.1.5 Simulation Results........................................................................................................ 42

3.3 Comparison of Lumped-Parameter Results to Modeling Results ............................................. 43

3.4 Using the Lumped-Parameter Technique to Determine Synergies in a Technology Application

Flowpath (Identifying Technology Pairs to account for synergies) .................................................... 44

4 Costs for Technologies....................................................................................................................... 46

4.1 Methodology for Estimating Variable Piece Costs ................................................................... 46

4.2 Piece Costs Assigned to CO2 Reduction technologies .............................................................. 46

4.2.1 Piece Costs Associated with Engine T