48
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved POWER EPC INFRASTRUCTURE SOLAR RESOURCES
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
POWER EPC INFRASTRUCTURE SOLAR RESOURCES
Lanco Solar: Presence Across the Solar Value Chain
Integrated Manufact
uring
Domestic EPC
Domestic Asset
Development
Operations &
Maintenance
Product & Services Group (PSG)
Operational module line
with 75 MW capacity
Setting up 1,800 MT
polysilicion facility and
100 MW wafer facility
Plans to enter into solar
cell manufacturing
Turnkey EPC:
Capabilities to execute
PV projects
Executed 93 MW
Poised to become
India’s largest EPC
player by FY13
Current PV order book:
INR 43 Bn
One of the largest solar
farm development
portfolio in India
Operational portfolio of
71 MW PV assets and
281 MW of solar
thermal and PV under
development
Provides own and third
party O&M services
Currently providing
services to projects
totaling118 MW
Offers services in the
decentralised solar PV
retail segment
19 projects completed
with total capacity of
~3.7MW
Currently executing 18
projects with total
capacity of ~2.5 MW
Enables “lowest levelised cost of electricity”
Ensures margin capture at all levels
Ensures profits in any business cycles
Lanco Solar…Established Solar EPC Capabilities
Cost Leadership – one of the lowest delivered per MW cost
Access to the over two decades of experience and talent pool of the parent EPC company
Large civil / electrical/ mechanical / erection contractor base across country
Ownership of latest construction equipment
ISO 9001 Certified - Emphasis on environmental, health and safety standards and processes
Skills, Knowledge and Experience through in house team of over 175 people
In-house capabilities for entire basic & detailed Engineering for PV projects
For solar thermal, civil / electrical / structural engineering done in-house
Assistance in site selection, vendor development and equipment selection
Continuous re-engineering/ innovation in civil / structural designs to optimise quantities / cost
State of art Engineering software and tools such as Autodesk AUTOCAD/3D studio Max PVSYST & PVSOL Solid works DEHN & ETAP Primavera, STADD etc.
Engineering team of over 60 people
Construction Procurement Engineering
Well defined procurement process policies
Established relationship with large vendor base
Timely delivery schedules at optimum cost
Experience in global sourcing of diverse materials and equipments with global procurement hub in Singapore
Projects split into multiple small packages (no turnkey sub-contracts) while ordering to achieve minimum costs
Dedicated logistics team
Well experienced team of 25 people
92 MW 1,697 MW
EPC Execution (MW)
FY12
FY16E
Leveraging established solar EPC platform to capture future growth opportunities
Lanco Solar…Integrated Manufacturing Facility in India
Operational manufacturing capacity of 75 MW in LSPL’s
SEZ facility in Chhattisgarh
Plans to scale it up to 100 MW
Covers a wide array of efficient and reliable mono/multi
crystalline modules ranging from 5 W to 400 W
Equipped with state-of-art control equipment – ensures
usage of only good quality raw material
First to implement Online Inspection – ensures 100%
crack free modules, high fill factor and positive tolerance
on power generation
Only company in India to manufacture certified PID free
module which are relevant for local conditions
Modules & Facilities certified for TUV, UL and Intertek &
ISO 9001, OHSAS 18000 and ISO 14001 respectively
Strategically located in central India – ensures cost
effective supply to all regions
Module Wafer Polysilicon
Polysilicon facility: 1,800 MT ; Wafers: 100 MW in Phase I – currently under
construction; fully financed project cost: INR 13.4 bn
Facilities spread over an area of 250 acres - SEZ facility built and owned by
Lanco Solar Private Limited (LSPL)
Plant development: ~60% complete, Engineering: 98% complete; target
commissioning : Mar-13
Qualified under SIPS policy: 20% capital subsidy by Government of India
India’s first polysilicon and wafer plant
Situated in Chhattisgarh - the power hub of India
Capability to manufacture micro electronic grade polysilicon - ensures high
quality supply to semi conductor and solar market
Selected technology ensures low energy usage as well as large capacity
reactors enabling low cost production
Wafering: Plant designed to produce mono like wafers - ensures low levelised
cost of electricity
Reputed partners chosen for technology: GT Solar and CDI of US and
engineering partner: Fluor US;
Solar Cells
Plan to enter solar
cells manufacturing
once technology
matures
Low gestation
period for plant set-
up ensures quick
response to
technology and
market needs
Micro electronic
grade poly enables
to produce N-type
wafers and make
cells of greater than
20% efficiency
Cu
rren
t S
tatu
s
Key H
igh
lig
hts
Opportunities in Solar
Satyendra Kumar
Lanco Solar, India [email protected]
Understanding Opportunities in Solar – V
February 11-13, 2013
India International Center, New Delhi Organized by
Plan
• Solar Opportunity: The Big Picture
• Growth Drivers
• Technology Landscape
• The big players and scenario in India
• Find your place in the solar world
7
The Big Picture
Astounding Demographics
Per Capita Income
393
461519
583
651
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
US
D2
9
48
221
726
9
17
74
285
710
20
33
120
404
613
2001-02 2005-06 2009-10(E)
Rich (Above 115,000)
High Income (57,000 – 115,000)
Consuming class (23,000 – 57,000)
Working class (10,200 – 23,000)
Needy (Below 10,200)
Annual Household Income
(in USD)
* In PPP terms
Po
pu
latio
n (
mill
ion
)
Increasing per capita income
coupled with an emerging
middle class has provided the
necessary impetus to
consumerism in India
Growth in the
higher income
categories of
India’s
population has
created an
affluent section
of society,
which has
significant level
of purchasing
power
Increasing
per capita
income and
large
population
moving into
middle class
has led to
high level of
consumerism
in India
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION OF INDIA
Astounding Demographics
24,867
17,061
16,891
13,654
11,217
8,071
7,931
7,149
6,435
4,759
2,875
2,631
2,232
778
436
126
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Norway
Canada
UAE
USA
Australia
Japan
France
Germany
Russia
S. Africa
World Avg
China
Brazil
India
Pakistan
Nigeria
Kwh/annum
India lacks significantly in Per Capita Consumption
Source: World Bank, CEA
1084 1050
280 233
194 138 125 119 104 102
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GW
India ranks 5th in terms of Installed Capacity
Source: EIA, CEA
India – Electricity Opportunity
India per capita Electricity Consumption is lagging well behind World Average and this would
catch up fast owing to rising levels of Disposable Income
An average of 16 GW of power generation capacity installations required each year till 2020
to meet fast growing demand for electricity power
Source: D&B Industrial Research Service
Indian Power Sector (30 November 2012)
Thermal 67% Nuclear
2%
Hydro 19%
Renewable 12%
Installed Capacity (MW)
Thermal
1,40,976 MW
Hydro
39,324 MW
Nuclear
4,780 MW
Renewable
26,368 MW
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
Renewable Power Capacity (31 December 2012)
Wind 70%
Small Hydro 13%
Bio mass 13%
Solar 4%
Installed Renewable Power Capacity (~ 26.4 GW)
Wind
18,321 MW
Small Hydro
3,465 MW
Solar
1176 MW
Biomass
3,535 MW
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
India’s Solar Advantage
India emerged as the 2nd most attractive country on overall solar index
Rank Country Solar
Index Solar PV Solar CSP
1 USA 72 71 74
2 India 64 69 53
3 China 61 66 47
4 Spain 58 56 63
5 Italy 58 64 65
(Source: E & Y, All renewables country attractiveness index, Nov11)
Solar energy potential is virtually infinite
Daily solar radiation 4-7 kWh/m2
250-300 sunny days in a year
5000 trillion kWh solar radiation incident in yr
Indeed, at present efficiency levels, 1% of
land area is sufficient to meet electricity
needs of India till 2031
Growth in Solar Opportunities
Policy Driven • Incentives (FiT, Net Metering, GBI, Subsidies) • Regulatory Requirements (RPO)
Market Driven • Increasing Demand of Energy • Falling Prices of Solar • Increasing Prices of fossil fuels
People Driven • Environment concern – pollution / global warming • Economic Development
JNNSM - Large Solar push in India
Strong opportunity for solar in India
2000
20000
4000-10000
2010-13 Target
(Phase 1)
2014-17 Target
(Phase 2)
2022 Target
National Solar Mission
+700%
Institutional Arrangement to support bundling of Solar Power
Strong National Policy Initiatives at the Centre (JNNSM)
State
Government
(Land, Water,
Other Sanctions)
Solar Power Developer
Central Electricity
Authority
(Technical Support)
National Thermal
Power Corporation
(NTPC)
NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam
(NVVN)
Buys → Bundles → Sells
State Electricity Boards
(Buyers of bundled power)
CERC
Determines Tariff
1 kWh Solar
4 kWh Thermal Bundled 5 kWh at
INR 4.17/kWh
Comprehensive framework for development of solar power in India
Covers both solar power generation as well as manufacturing
Incorporates specific fiscal / monetary incentives
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
JNNSM – Phase I
State-wise Solar Installations
State/UT MW State/UT MW
Andhra Pradesh 21.8 Punjab 9.3
Chhattisgarh 4.0 Rajasthan 200.15
Gujarat 824.0 Tamil Nadu 16.1
Haryana 7.8 Uttar Pradesh 12.4
Jharkhand 16.0 Uttarakhand 5.1
Karnataka 14.0 West Bengal 2.1
Madhya Pradesh 7.4 Andaman & Nicobar 0.1
Maharashtra 20.0 Delhi 2.5
Orissa 12.0 Lakshadweep 0.8
TOTAL 1176
(as on 31 December 2012)
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
JNNSM: Phase-I, Batch-I
17
Scheme Projects
allotted
Projects
Commissioned
Minm / Maxm/
Weighted Avg. bid
tariff
%
Reduction
in tariff
No. MW No. MW
Large PV projects
through NVVN
30 150 26 130 10.95/12.76/12.16
Rs. / Unit
32 %
2 Projects Cancelled
Migration
Scheme
SPV 13 54 11 48 CERC applicable
tariff ST 3 30 1 2.5
RPSSGP Scheme
(PV)
78 98.05 68 87.80 CERC linked tariff
Solar Thermal
projects through
NVVN
7 470 Scheduled for
commissioning
by May 2013
10.49/12.24/11.48
Rs. / Unit
25 %
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
JNNSM: Phase-I, Batch-II
Scheme Projects
allotted
Projects
Commissioned
Minimu
m bid
tariff
Maximum
bid tariff
Weighted
Average bid
tariff
%
Reducti
on in
tariff
No. MW No. MW
Large PV
projects
through NVVN
28 350 Scheduled for
commissioning
by Feb. 2013
7.49
Rs. /
Unit
9.44
Rs. / Unit
8.77
Rs. / Unit
43 %
20 MW already commissioned
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
State Initiatives
State Target
Gujarat Had announced around 968MW solar capacity;709 MW
already commissioned
Andhra Pradesh RFP for 1,000 MW already issued
Tamil Nadu RFP for 1,000 MW already issued. Nearly 499MW bids
received
Orissa Allocated 50MW in two phases of 25MW each
Rajasthan Called bid for 200MW solar capacity
Karnataka Allocated 80 MW of solar power projects planned to be
commissioned in 2013
Chhattisgarh Aims at capacity of 500MW till March 2017
Uttar Pradesh Aims at capacity of 500MW till March 2017
Madhya Pradesh Plans to add 300 MW of solar power under its solar policy.
200MW has already been bid out
Maharashtra Has announced 205MW
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
JNSM –II : Targets (2012-17)
Rooftop PV Programme – 1000 MW
Energy Access – 20,000 (Villages/hamlets/basti/padas)
Off-Grid Lighting Systems – 10 lakhs
Solar Cities – 15 (In addition to existing target of 60 cities)
Solar Water pumps – 25,000 Systems
Telecom Towers – 25,000 Systems
Solar Water Heating Systems – 8 Million Sq.m of Collector area
Solar Cooker & Steam Generating Systems – 50,000 Systems
Industrial Process heat application – 400 , 250 Sq.m each on an average
Manufacturing – 4/5 GW Capacity
Human Resource Development – 1 Lakh trained & Specialized personnel
Utility Grid Power including rooftop 10,000 MW Off Grid Solar Applications 1000 MW Solar Collectors 15 million sq mt
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
Investment required for JNNSM Phase-II
Grid Connected Solar - Rs. 90,000 Crs
Off-Grid Solar - Rs. 25,000 Crs
Supporting infrastructure - Rs. 25,000 Crs
Total - Rs. 1.4 Lakh Crore
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
Investment required for JNNSM Phase-II
Grid Connected Solar - Rs. 90,000 Crs
Off-Grid Solar - Rs. 25,000 Crs
Supporting infrastructure - Rs. 25,000 Crs
Total - Rs. 1.4 Lakh Crore
Opportunities ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹ ₹
Thrust Areas for promotion of Off-grid solar
Improved Energy Access for remote areas
Heating/Cooling applications that would encourage
income generation opportunities (such as Cooling, Cold
Storage, water purification, Space Heating)
Replacement of Diesel and Kerosene – Telecom towers,
Distributed Generation : (e.g. rooftop PV applications)
Use in industry (Space Heating, water pumping)
JNNSM Phase-II
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
Solar capacity requirement
As per Tariff policy, Solar RPO has to begin with 0.25 % by 2013 and reach
3% by 2022
Year Solar RPO (%)
Solar Capacity Requirement for RPO
compliance (MW)
(B)
2012-13 0.25% 1,536
2013-14 0.50% 3,291
2014-15 0.75% 5,291
2015-16 1.00% 7,560
2016-17 1.25% 10,127
2017-18 1.75% 15,176
2018-19 2.25% 20,885
2019-20 2.50% 24,839
2020-21 2.75% 29,247
2021-22 3.00% 34,152
To achieve 3% RPO compliance by 2022, ~34,000MW of solar capacity would be
needed
Demand based on the National Electricity Plan for Generation January 2012
CUF based on CERC norms are used to arrive at MW capacity
Source: MNRE (January 2013)
Market Forces: With current cost trend Grid parity expected soon
The capital cost for solar power has come down by 40%-50% in the last 1 year.
Expected to continue the downward trend for the next 3 years as the manufacturing scale
increases and the technology matures.
Cost for fossil fuels such as coal is expected to increase and subsidies in the power sector in
India are expected to fall, thus driving up grid power prices.
Given India’s high irradiation levels, solar power will soon become a feasible choice on
standalone basis without subsidies
Levelized Cost Comparison of Utility-scale PV and Conventional Power at Grid
(Source: KPMG’s)
SOLAR PV ECONOMICS
Continue pricing pressure; only those with most competitive structure will survive
Emphasis on Cost Structure
• Cost projected to continue falling by 5 – 10 % per year driven by: •Improved cost/module eff. •Existing oversupply in the supply chain
• Greater economies of scale • BoS and financing cost becoming relatively more important
Polysilicon ($/kg) Wafer ($/W) Cell ($/W) Module ($/W)
08 Q2 ~ 400 ~2.00 ~3.00 > 4.00
09 Q2 ~ 70 - 75 (-80%) ~ 0.9 - 1.2 (-50%) ~ 1.5 - 1.8 (-45%) ~ 2.2 - 2.5 (-44%)
10 Q2 < 50 - 60 (-20%) < 0.85 (-29%) < 1.3 - 1.5 (-19%) ~ 1.7 - 1.9 (-24%)
11 Q2 < 30 – 40 < 0.8 < 0.8– 1.0 ~ 1.0 – 1.2
12 Q2
Source: HSBC Research
3.8
3.5
2.1
1.6
1.0 0.82
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E
Module Price $/Wp
Cost Economics Making Solar Attractive
JNNSM – Reverse Bids - fall in tariff
Rs. 17.9 = 0.33 US$
Rs. 15.0 = 0.27 US$
Rs. 7.5 = 0.14 US$
There has been a tremendous response and aggressive
bids
8.8
6.2 6.05.7
5.4 5.2 5.1 5.04.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0
3.73.2 3.2 3.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Average Industrial Tariff (Rs/kWh)
Increasing Industrial Tariff Vs Decreasing cost of Solar
Faced with deteriorating health of distribution companies, 24 states raise power tariffs in 18 months Tamil Nadu – 37 % , Andhra Pradesh – 20-25% , Odisha – 25%, Haryana – 10-15 %, Bihar – 12-15% , Tripura – 17%, MP – 7-8% and more Conventional tariff has to be increased by 15-20% every year to cover losses of power distribution companies
Solar @ Rs 7
Source: Economic Survey 2011-12
JNNSM: an engine for national growth
- Job Creation (at all levels : unskilled to highly skilled)
- Wealth Creation
- Knowledge Creation
- Lower Costs
- Widespread use of clean solar power
Solar – Knowledge base and Technology
Grid Extension, Availability and Stability
Solar Photovoltaics (PV)
Technology PV production – whole value
chain
Equipment PV production – whole value
chain
Grid Connected Solar Farms – EPC,
Inverters, Monitoring Systems
Engineering
Solar Thermal (CSP)
Equipment/Technology: Solar Fields,
Power Block
Suitability of technology for local
geographic and environment conditions
Technology
Equipment
Engineering
Risk Assessment and Insurance
Solar Resource Assessment (GHI, DNI) :
Satellite Based Estimates & Ground Measurements
Financing
Understanding Opportunities in Solar – V
What are various SPV technologies ?
c-Si Thin Films
Mono /
Single-
Crystal
Multi /
Poly Crystal
Amorphous Silicon CdTe CIGS Organic
a-Si
(single
Junction)
Tandem / Micromorph/
Double Jn/
Triple Jn
18-23% 15-17.5% ~6-8% ~9-10% ~11% ~12-14% ~5% ?
Industry Production vs Laboratory Research
• Huge investments in c-Si Technology
• Learning Curve and Eco-system
buildup for new technologies takes time
62.07%
37.93%
Thin Films c-si
Module Technology Breakup - by % capacity
JNSM –Phase I (Batch-1): 150 MW
Photovoltaic Systems
• PV Panels: high efficiency at low cost !
• Inverters: Long Life time ?, Higher efficiencies,
Tropicalized, more intelligent
• Variability of Solar Resource
- Storage solutions: Batteries, Ultracapacitors,….
• Power electronics – Load Specific
• BOS: Structures, Trackers (?), Civil Construction
• Transport of power – Availability and Stability of
Grid
Who and Where are the big players?
Over 10 year period 2000-10
Japan PV production reduced from ~40-50% to less than 10% globally.
PV installation in EU increased from less than 10% to over 80%, PV production
in EU reduced from ~20% to 10% globally (negligible in 2012)
China/Taiwan PV production increased from negligible to ~60% globally
(~ 80% in 2012).
Source: EPIA Global Outlook 2015 (published
2012)
Market vs Production
(Global PV manufacturing has shifted from Japan to Europe to China)
Market vs Production
(Global PV manufacturing has shifted from Japan to Europe to China/Taiwan)
Top 10 companies by product shipment, 2006-2011 (2012)
Top 10 companies by annual PV product shipments (MW), 2006-2011.
Compiled by PV-Tech, the chart is based on historic market analysis data.
Global Top 10 Module producers – Rise of China
Japan: Sharp, Kyocera, Sanyo, Mitsubishi
Europe: Q-Cells, Schott, BP, SolarWorld
US: SunPower, First Solar
China: Suntech, JA Solar, Yingli, Trina, Canadian, Jinko
Taiwan: Motech
Korea: Hanwha
What is happening in India?
Polysilicon Ingot/
Wafer Cells Modules
System
Integration
Decentralised
Application Sand
Upstream Mid Stream Down Stream
NATIONAL MISSION & DOMESTIC SOLAR MFG ASPIRATIONS
Indian Solar Market demand is growing to be 1GW/yr by next year; and is set to increase further thereafter, due to Grid Parity achievement
To cater to the Indian market demand following manufacturing capacities are required:
Indian Solar PV
Manufacturing
NSM Goal : 2 GW / yr
Domestic Mfg by 2020
Existing / Under Constr
Indian Capacities
Remarks
Polysilicon 12,000 T/yr 1,800 T/yr (constr) Lanco
Ingots & Wafers 2,300 MW/yr 300 MW/yr (constr) Lanco, Birla Surya
Cells 2,200 MW/yr 1,010 MW/yr Indosolar, Jupiter, BHEL,
Websol, Tata, Moserbaer,
EuroMultivision, BEL, CEL,
SolarSemi……..
Modules 2,000 MW/yr 1,900 MW/yr More than 40 companies
Balance of System (Manufacturing in India)
Current Players Announcements Capacity
(MW eq.)
Inverters (<100
kW)
More than 20 As needed
Inverters
(>100 kW)
OPS, AEG, ABB, Numeric Five (Bonfig, Advanced
Energy……….)
> 500 MW
Array Combiner
Boxes (Junction
Boxes)
Trinity Touch, Nordic India, VNT,
ESK India, CAPE, Volex
> 2300
Cables Siechem (Pondichery), Nicco
(Kolkata), KEI (Okhla)
>7000
Structures Numerous Manufacturers
Across India
Big groups like Tata,
L&T etc.
As needed
JNNSM has triggered huge manufacturing activity related to BOS, especially
inverters and array combiner boxes in India).
It is expected that these products will better respond to high humidity, high
temperatures and dust conditions in India and faster O&M response as
compared to currently imported products, mainly from Europe.
BOM for Modules (Manufacturing in India)
JNNSM has triggered huge manufacturing activity related to Module components.
Most of the capacity creation has happened since 2010
There are many announcements for capacity additions
Supplier Origin
Junction Box Volex Chennai
Yukita Greater Noida
EVA Lucent Ahmedabad
Renesys Bangalore
Brij Footcare Delhi
Allied Meerut
Backsheet Polycom Mumbai
Renewsys Bangaloe (Announed)
Glass Borosil Gujraat
Allied Meerut
Ribbon G and G Bangalore
Sukriti
Frame Alom Hawrah
Valco Baddi
Hindalco /Century No limitation on capacity
Banco Vadodara
Find your place in the Solar World
• What technology is needed ? at what cost ?
• What is needed to develop/get that technology
• What challenges it would involve to get commercialized
Who needs Solar ?
For what ?
Where/When does one need it ?
Installation Efforts
2/11/2013 43
Solar MW Power Plant Installation
Project
Planning and
Engineering
Layouts
System
component
specs
Mechanical
structures
Civil
structures
Electrical
installations
Commissioning
procedures
Site Identification
and Preparation
Check for Substation
location and availability of
construction material
Identify location after
checking Energy
estimation data
Procure land and get
statutory clearances
Prepare the land by
leveling where required to
enable solar farm
installation
Project
Installation
Mark coordinates for
Foundation points and cast
foundation for module
structure, Inverter room, and
substation
Site preparation, Pathway and
Boundary Wall construction,
water drains, etc
Assemble Module structures
and install inverters and
substation
Interconnect the system
components by cabling
Commission the System and
monitor the energy generation
Courtesy: Mr Raghuram (Greenwich Nixen)
Who needs Solar ?
Who needs Solar ?
July 30, 2011
Who needs Solar ? For What?
Solar Solutions for all occasions
