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EPD 101
Predicting Predicting
Profit…Profit…
Red Angus – EPD 101
EPD 101
• Members (Seedstock producers) succeed through enabling the success (profit) of their commercial customers.
• More Reliable EPDs for Seedstock producers result in more reliable genetic products (bulls) for commercial customers.
RAAA RAAA PhilosophyPhilosophy
• Commercial producer is our customerCommercial producer is our customer.
EPD 101
• When the science exists to make a genetic prediction more precise, the science is implemented.
• Genetic Prediction overseen by technical committee – not elected boards…
… EPDs are Science not Politics.
EPD 101
• 50 Year Old Performance Registry 50 Year Old Performance Registry • Open AIOpen AI
• Performance Data in the Show RingPerformance Data in the Show Ring
• Total Herd Reporting (THR)Total Herd Reporting (THR)
• EPDs for Economic Relevance EPDs for Economic Relevance (ERTs)(ERTs)
• What’s ahead?What’s ahead?– Develop Tools to better serve our Commercial Develop Tools to better serve our Commercial
CustomersCustomers
EPD 101
• Red Angus was the industry’s first “performance
registry”
• Since its inception in 1954, RAAA has
required Weaning weights for registration
EPD 101
• 1995 - THR
• 1996 - Stayability EPD
• 1996 - Carcass EPDs
• 2000 - Carcass EPDs include Ultrasound Data
• 2001 - Heifer Pregnancy EPD
• 2002 - Calving Ease EPDs(Direct and Maternal)
• 2004 – Maintenance Energy Requirement EPD
EPD 101
EPD =EPD =Expected Progeny Expected Progeny
DifferenceDifference
EPD 101
Sire A: BW EPD = -1.0 Sire B: BW EPD = 3.5
EPDs predict differences in performance of average progeny of different sires
•EPDs do not predict actual performance
(It doesn’t predict Sire A’s calves will weigh 72#)
•They predict relative performance.
(Sire A’s calves will be on average 4.5 lbs lighter than Sire’s B’s Calves)
EPD 101
B.L.U.P. =B.L.U.P. =Best Linear Best Linear
Unbiased PredictionUnbiased PredictionUtilizes and weighs information from individual animals and their relatives.
• Pedigree/Relatives
• Individual Performance
• Progeny
EPD 101
The Bull is the Genetic Vector…
…also maintains reproductive status of the cowherd
EPD 101
Genetic Change =Genetic Change =Selection Differential x
Heritability
Selection Differential = Difference between existing
cowherd and sire selection(s)
EPD 101
Avg. of Cowherd
YW EPD = 30
Avg. of Sires Used on Cowherd
YW EPD = 60
Selection Differential:
Selection Differential
= 30 lbsYW EPD Example:
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
EPD 101
Genetic Improvement Genetic Improvement Over Time =Over Time =
Selection Differential x Heritability x
Generation Interval
EPD 101
Data and Information Data and Information SystemsSystems
• Collect objective data from member breeders.
• Analyze the data in an unbiased manner. • Provide information from the analysis in the
form of genetic predictions.• Make available decision support software to
aid in the interpretation of the predictions.
EPD 101
A.A. Collect Objective Data Collect Objective Data From Member/BreedersFrom Member/Breeders
Assumption – all breed associations work on the following base regulation:
“All information furnished to the association as a basis for any action by
the association shall be true and correct.”
EPD 101
• Weights
• Adj. Wts
• Ratios
• EPDs
What an animal weighs on a given day – cannot compare because calves are born on different days, and from dams of different ages
Adjusts weights to a common age (205d or 365d) May also adjust for age of dam. Cannot compare across herds b/c of differences in environment, management, etc.
Useful for comparing calves within the same contemporary group only. Can not compare across herds
Useful for comparing across herds, as mating bias, environmental, and management differences are removed by B.L.U.P.
Contemporary GroupContemporary Group
A group of animals that have been exposed to the same environment
and have been given equal opportunity to perform.
Why are proper Why are proper contemporary groups so contemporary groups so
important?important?Ensures that comparisons between
animals are fair and that EPD reflect genetic differences.
Contemporary Group Contemporary Group Sorts:Sorts:
Ownership/workgroup
Sex
Age
Weigh Date
Mgt. Code
Feed Code
EPD 101
• Implemented in 1995
• Requires Reporting on:• Production of EVERY Red Angus cow annually• Weaning Performance of EVERY Red Angus calf
• Avoids Selective Reporting of Data on
“only calves good enough to Register”
EPD 101
THR ensures unbiased, reliable genetic predictions (EPDs) .
Eliminates Selection bias…
…because it utilizes Complete Contemporary Group Reporting
EPD 101
Selective Reporting – Growth
EPD 101
Case study (Mallinckrodt et al., 1995)
Complete EPD Incomplete EPD
Sire
IDNumProg
ProgenyAverage
NumberReported
SelectedAvg WW Milk WW Milk
1 10 400 5 450 0 0 +6 -2
2 10 500 10 500 +20 -2 +12 +1
EPD 101
EPD 101
AccuracyAccuracy
Relationship between genetic Relationship between genetic prediction & true genetic valueprediction & true genetic value
Low Accuracy Low Accuracy <.40<.40
Low/Medium Accuracy Low/Medium Accuracy .40 - .60.40 - .60
Medium/High AccuracyMedium/High Accuracy .60 .60 - .80- .80
High AccuracyHigh Accuracy > .80> .80
EPD 101
Factors Affecting EPD Accuracy
(Yearling Bulls) • Accuracy of parental EPDsAccuracy of parental EPDs
• Individual data within contemporary groupIndividual data within contemporary group
• Number of contemporariesNumber of contemporaries
• Number/Accuracies of sires represented Number/Accuracies of sires represented within contemporary groupwithin contemporary group
EPD 101
Factors Affecting EPD AccuracyFactors Affecting EPD Accuracy(Proven Sires:)(Proven Sires:)
• Number of ProgenyNumber of Progeny
• Number of Contemporary GroupsNumber of Contemporary Groups
• Size of Contemporary GroupsSize of Contemporary Groups
• Comparison of Progeny to Progeny of Comparison of Progeny to Progeny of Proven Sires (within viable contemporary Proven Sires (within viable contemporary groups)groups)
EPD 101
Accuracy is the Accuracy is the tool to measure tool to measure our confidence in our confidence in a given EPD.a given EPD.
Confidence Range Confidence Range shows expected shows expected range of true range of true genetic value - genetic value - not expected not expected variation in a calf variation in a calf crop.crop.
EPD 101
Med. accuracy sire
High accuracy sire
Low accuracy sire
BW EPD
EPD 101
Low accuracy sire
Med. accuracy sire
High Accuracy sire YW EPD
EPD 101
Possible Change:We expect true genetic value to fall within one standard deviation (2/3) of the time
The other third of the time, true genetic value will fall outside one standard deviation.
The standard deviation varies with different traits and accuracies as presented in the “Possible Change” Table.
EPD 101
• Objectively describe reproduction, growth, maintenance & carcass traits…
• …utilizing the fewest EPDs possible.
EPD 101
• Economically Relevant TraitsEconomically Relevant Traits– have direct economic impact on producer– can be easily quantified in economic terms
EPD 101
Goal: To objectively describe seedstock cattle for
Economically
Relevant Traits.
Red Angus EPDsRed Angus EPDs
EPD 101
Red Angus Genetic Predictions
(EPDs)
GrowthGrowth•Birth WeightBirth Weight•Weaning WeightWeaning Weight• MilkMilk•Total Maternal Total Maternal •Yearling WeightYearling Weight
CarcasCarcasss•MarblingMarbling•RibEye AreaRibEye Area• BackFatBackFat
MaintenancMaintenancee•Maintenance Energy Maintenance Energy
RequirementRequirement
ReproductionReproduction•Calving Ease Calving Ease (CED)(CED)
•Heifer PregnancyHeifer Pregnancy•Daughters Calving Daughters Calving
(CEM) (CEM)
•Stayability (STAY)Stayability (STAY)
EPD 101
IndicatorIndicatorCalving Records
Scrotal Circumference
B.W. & Calving Ease Score
B.F. & R.E.A.
Mature Weight, Milk & BCS
ERTERTStayability
Heifer Pregnancy Rate
Calving Ease
% Retail Product
Cow Maintenance Energy Requirement
EPD 101
Focus on Focus on ReproductionReproduction
……to make a great beef cowto make a great beef cow
It takes more than milk…It takes more than milk…
EPD 101
Beef Replacement Requirements
1. Be 1. Be Born Born UnassistedUnassisted2. Get Bred to 2. Get Bred to Calve as a 2-yr-Calve as a 2-yr-OldOld3. Have Her 13. Have Her 1stst Calf Without Calf Without AssistanceAssistance4. Rebreed to 4. Rebreed to Calve Again in Calve Again in 365 Days365 Days
5. Complete Steps 1-5. Complete Steps 1-4 without extra feed 4 without extra feed or TLCor TLC6. Wean a valuable 6. Wean a valuable calfcalf7. Pass on added 7. Pass on added value Traits to value Traits to OffspringOffspring
8. Repeat Steps 1-8. Repeat Steps 1-7 on an annual 7 on an annual basis.basis.
EPD 101
ProductionProduction is the last word is the last word
in in ReReproductionproduction……
EPD 101
• Calving Ease Direct (CED)– Ability of a calf to be born unassisted
• Heifer Pregnancy (HPG)– Ability to become pregnant to calve as a
two year old
• Calving Ease Total Maternal (CEM)– Ability to have a calf unassisted
• Stayability (STAY)– Ability to remain in the herd producing
EPD 101
All Red Angus Reproductive EPDs are All Red Angus Reproductive EPDs are based on Categorical Measuresbased on Categorical Measures
Continuous –vs- Categorical• Continuous
– Can take on any value within reason
• Categorical– Measure one of two possible outcomes
• Success or Failure
• Yes or No
EPD 101
Inactive at 6Active with progeny at 6
Stayability
OpenPregnantHeifer
Pregnancy
Assisted Calving
Unassisted Calving
Calving EaseCED, CEM
Failure Failure MeasureMeasure
Success Success MeasureMeasureTraitTrait
EPD 101
Calving Calving Ease Ease DirectDirect
Percent difference of Percent difference of
calves unassisted calves unassisted
at birthat birth
CECEDD
EPD 101
Heifer PregnancyHeifer Pregnancy
Percent difference of daughters conceiving to calve Percent difference of daughters conceiving to calve at two years of age.at two years of age.
HPHPGG
EPD 101
Heifer FertilityHeifer Fertility
Scrotal Circumference
EPD 101
Heifer FertilityHeifer Fertility
Scrotal Circumference
Age at Puberty
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal Circumference
Age at Puberty
HeiferPregnancy
EPD 101
Heifer FertilityHeifer Fertility
Scrotal Circumference
Age at Puberty
HeiferPregnancy
SC EPD
EPD 101
Heifer FertilityHeifer Fertility
Scrotal Circumference
Age at Puberty
HeiferPregnancy
SC EPD
HPG EPD
BIF 2001
Trash
EPD 101
Calving Ease Calving Ease MaternalMaternal
• Percent difference Percent difference of daughters of daughters calving unassistedcalving unassisted
CEMCEM
EPD 101
Calving Ease Maternal (CEM)
(1/2)CED EPD + Maternal EPD = CEM EPD
Messmer Julian 9486
8 (CED) + -3 (CEM) = 1 (CEM)
Not published
EPD 101
StayabilityStayability
Percent difference of daughters staying productivePercent difference of daughters staying productive within a herd until six years of agewithin a herd until six years of age
StayStay
EPD 101
GrowtGrowth h TraitsTraits • Birth Weight BW
• Weaning Weight WW
• Yearling Weight YW• Milk Milk• Total Maternal TM
EPD 101
• Birth Weight (BW)– Weight of calf at birth
• Weaning Weight (WW)– 205-day weight of calf at weaning
• Yearling Weight (YW)– 365-day weight of calf
• Milk (MILK)– 205-day weight due to daughter’s milk
• Total Maternal (TM)– 205-day weight of daughter’s calves
EPD 101
Red Angus Genetic Red Angus Genetic TrendsTrends
EPD 101
EPD 101
Challenges
Balancing increased Revenue with Expense of Producing it.
EPD 101
…vs. Maintenance Energy Requirements
EPD 101
Marketing = Environment:Marketing = Environment:
• Background &
sell as yearlings?
• Calf Feds?
• Retained Ownership
• Replacement Females
EPD 101
Maintenance Energy Maintenance Energy RequirementRequirement
The seedstock The seedstock
industry’s First Look at the expense side of ranchers’ profit equation.industry’s First Look at the expense side of ranchers’ profit equation.
ME
EPD 101
What is Maintenance Energy?• The energy
required to sustain body tissues with no net change in body tissues
• Feed required to maintain body weight
EPD 101
Mature Cow Maintenance Energy
• An average of 70% of feed inputs are used for maintenance energy requirements
• Cost of feed inputs represent 40 to 60% of the average annual cow cost
NRC (1996), McGrann (1999), Hughes (1999)
EPD 101
Components of ME EPD• Mature Weight
• Milk Production
• Body Condition Score (BCS)
EPD 101
GrowthMature
Size Maintenance Energy
RequirementsMilk
Visceral
Organ Mass
Growth & Milk Represent Revenue (lbs to sell)…
……but antagonisms existbut antagonisms exist
EPD 101
Mature Weight Genetic Trend
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Birth Year
EPD, lbs
EPD 101
Average Mature Cow Maintenance Energy EPD in Red Angus Cattle
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Birth Year
EP
D, (
Mca
l yr)
First Mature Weight Data Collection
EPD 101
Benefits of ME EPD• Select animals that
are better able to maintain body condition score
• Lower annual cost of production
• Improve selection of animals for their production environment
EPD 101
MarblingMarbling Units:Units: marbling marbling
scorescore
Carcass Carcass EPDs:EPDs:
Ribeye Ribeye AreaArea
Units:Units: square square inchesinchesFat Fat
ThicknessThickness Units:Units: inches inches
EPD 101
• Red Angus combines both real-time ultrasound and traditional carcass data into the calculations of carcass EPDs
EPD 101