Epistemic tools for chance-seeking

Emanuele BardoneInstitute of Informatics, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia

AISB Workshop - Bournemouth, 27-28 January 2014

“philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds” R. Feynman

Engaging agent-based modelers in conversation

1) Hypothesis generation2) Intervention3) chance-seeking

Hypothesis generation

1

Hypothesis Hypothesis generationgeneration

Deduction of Deduction of consequencesconsequences

Empirical testingEmpirical testing

Hypothesis Hypothesis generationgeneration??????????

Is there anything like a “logic” of hypothesis generation?

Psychology

History and sociology

God knows what

Abduction as the “logic” of H-G

Hypothesis generation involves a specific form of (fallacious) inference - called abduction.

A fact, C, is observed.if H were true, C would be a matter of course.Hence, there is reason to suspect that H is true.

Hf1

f2

f3

f4

H is likely to be the case, because H explains the presence of all the relevant, known facts

Explanatory

value

Intervention

2

Where do relevant facts come from then?

Scientists are not passive observers

From “Kitchen stories”

Intervention via epistemic mediation

Hf1f2

f3

f4

Intervening is still conjectural and yet has very little to do with inferring to the (best)

explanation

To search for the solution of a problem is an absurdity. For either you know what you are looking for, and then there is no problem; or

you do not know what you are looking for, and then you are not looking for anything and

cannot expect to find anything

The Meno’s Paradox

Chance-seeking

3

The role of chance events

A chance is everything that we cannot anticipate or predict. As such it hints at

nothing but our ignorance

Introducing chance-seeking

As soon as we intervene in the world, we inevitably have to engage with our ignorance

We can make use of our ignorance by tinkering on chance events

Chance-seeking as tinkering on chance events

To make use of whatever comes in handy

Adaptive, forward-looking

Clumsy solutions - kludges - yet workable and open to further improvements (if any)

Ambulatory knowledge (we know as we go, not before we go)

No foresight into the future

Thanks!