Consumer Durables September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Bloomberg: TTKPT INReuters: TTKP.BO SELL
Institutional Equities
India Research
INITIATION REPORT
Recommendation
CMP: Rs3,787
Target Price: Rs3,173
Downside (%) 16%
Stock Information Market Cap. (Rs bn / US$ mn) 43/780
52‐week High/Low (Rs) 3,967/2,151
3m ADV (Rs mn /US$ mn) 413/7.6
Beta 0.95
Sensex/ Nifty 18,694/5,674
Share outstanding (mn) 11
Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M YTD
Absolute 11.0 22.4 44.5 51.6
Rel. to Sensex 5.8 11.7 28.8 30.7
Performance
Source: Bloomberg
1 Year Forward P/E
Source: Karvy Institutional Research
Analysts Contact Jagadishwar Pasunoori, CFA, FRM
+91‐40‐44857912
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S‐11
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J‐12
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Sensex (LHS) TTK Prestige
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25
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Apr‐
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Apr‐
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Apr‐
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Apr‐
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Apr‐
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Apr‐
12TTK Prestige 1 yr Forward P/E
Mean
Mean+Std Dev
23.0
A Pricy Kitchen King TTK Prestige (TTKP) has transformed itself from a single product company
to a “total kitchen appliances company” in the last five years. It is the market
leader in pressure cookers and also commands numero uno position in
induction cook‐tops with a market share of 20%.
Distributor Survey Reveals Deceleration of Sales Growth: Our distributor
survey across India has revealed that the volume growth in Pressure Cookers
& Non‐Stick Cookware has decelerated to single digits and volume growth in
KEA – including Induction Cook‐tops – has decreased to mid‐teens.
Competitive Advantage in Pressure Cookers may not be extended to KEA:
We believe TTKP may not be able to enjoy similar competitive advantage in
KEA segment as it enjoys in Pressure Cookers where it is the leader with 40%
market share. TTKP enjoys market share of 20% in Induction Cook‐tops and
high‐single digits in rest of the KEA products. TTKP outsources most of its
KEAs. Moreover, the organized pressure cooker market is closer to duopoly
whereas KEA segment markets represent oligopolies. TTKP generates an
EBITDA margin of ~19% on in‐house manufacturing and ~12% on
outsourced products. We believe the company’s margin will reduce as KEA
outgrows rest of the segments.
Returns Ratios to Decline Going Forward: TTKP has generated near 50%
ROE in the last three years due to higher asset turnovers and increased EBIT
Margin. We believe the ROE will decelerate to near 30% in FY16E due to
decreased EBIT Margin and lower asset turnovers as the company has been
investing in capital expenditure. We believe that TTKP’s capacity utilization
will peak by FY14E. In order to drive sales further the Company has to hike
in‐house capacity or rely on outsourcing after FY14E. Both the options will
adversely impact TTKP’s cash flows and return ratios from FY15E onwards.
Outlook & Valuation
Revenue and net income of TTKP grew by 31% and 57% CAGR, respectively
in FY07‐12 period. We believe that TTKP’s top‐ and bottom‐lines to maintain
25% CAGR in FY12‐14E period. At CMP of Rs. 3,787, the stock trades at 31.1x
and 24.4x of FY13E and FY14E EPS, respectively. We believe the stock is
expensive at current levels amid slower growth and expected lower return
ratios. We initiate coverage on TTKP with “SELL” recommendation and a
target price of Rs. 3,173 per share, having 16% downside potential.
Key Financials
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168
EBIDTA 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259
Net Profit 485 843 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091
EPS (Rs) 42.8 74.5 100.1 121.6 155.5 184.7
PER (x) 88.5 50.8 37.8 31.1 24.4 20.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 54.8 33.8 24.0 19.3 15.3 13.0
ROE (%) 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35.0
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Shareholding pattern
Source: Bloomberg
Sales by Region – FY12
Source: Company
Promoter/Majority, 74.9
FIIs, 11.8 Banks/Fis/MFs, 3.4
Others, 0.9 Public, 9.0
South, 62%West, 15%
North and East, 20%
Exports, 3%
Company Background
TTK Prestige (TTKP) – a 57‐year old company – operates in
kitchen appliances industry. Its portfolio includes Pressure
Cookers, Pans, Non‐Stick Cookware, Gas Stoves, Induction
Cook‐tops, Rice Cookers and other kitchen electrical
appliances.
TTKP has evolved from a single product and South India
dominant company to “total kitchen appliances” company
with pan‐India presence. It has won many awards such as
“Super Brand”, “Master Brand” and “Star SME”.
TTKP has eight manufacturing facilities at Housur,
Coimbatore & Roorkee. The Company generated Rs. 11 bn
and Rs. 1.1 bn in sales and net income, respectively in FY12.
Its distribution network includes 356 PSK outlets and 30,000
retail outlets apart from institutions such as HPCL & BPCL.
Company Financial Snapshot Profit & loss
Rs. mn FY12 FY13E FY14E
Net revenues 11,034 14,092 17,351
EBIDTA 1,768 2,198 2,776
Other income 31 16 16
Interest 103 163 139
Depreciation 62 108 150
Profit Before Tax 1,632 1,943 2,502
Provision for tax 499 567 742
Adjusted Net Profit 1,134 1,377 1,760
Reported Net Profit 1,134 1,377 1,760
Profit and Loss Ratios
EBIDTA Margins (%) 16.0 15.6 16.0
PAT Margins (%) 10.3 9.8 10.1
EV/EBIDTA (x) 24.0 19.3 15.3
PER (x) 37.8 31.1 24.4
Dividend Payout (%) 15.0 17.0 22.0
Cash Flow
Rs. mn FY12 FY13E FY14E
EBIT 1,705 2,090 2,625
(Inc)/Dec in working capital (181) (469) (334)
Cash flow from operations 1,525 1,621 2,291
Other income 31 16 16
Depreciation 49 108 150
Interest paid (103) (163) (139)
Dividends paid (197) (272) (450)
Tax paid (499) (567) (742)
Net cash from operations 805 744 1,126
Capital expenditure (1,540) (1,100) (300)
Free Cash Flows (735) (356) 826
Inc/(Dec) in LT borrowing 154 353 (550)
Inc/(Dec) in ST borrowing 11 135 (160)
Cash from Financial Activities 165 487 (710)
Opening Cash 535 223 286
Closing Cash 223 286 402
Change in Cash (312) 63 116
Balance Sheet
Rs. mn FY12 FY13E FY14E
Shareholders’ funds 2,851 3,956 5,266
Total Loans 223 710 ‐
Deferred tax liability 68 ‐ ‐
Total Liabilities & Equity 3,142 4,666 5,266
Net block 1,507 2,896 3,164
Capital WIP 794 397 278
LT loans and advances 97 138 123
Investments 4 4 4
Net current assets 741 1,232 1,697
Deferred expenditure 0 ‐ ‐
Total Assets 3,142 4,666 5,266
Balance Sheet Ratios
Fixed assets turnover ratio
(x) 11.5 6.4 5.7
ROCE (%) 46.0 37.9 37.2
ROE (%) 47.6 40.4 38.2
Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.00) 0.11 (0.08)
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.1 2.4
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Outlook &Valuation
At CMP of Rs. 3,787 per share, the stock trades at P/E multiple of 31.1x and 24.4x of
FY13E & FY14E EPS, respectively. We value TTKP’s core business at Rs. 3,109
(20xFY14E EPS) and its realty at Rs. 64. Hence our target price comes to Rs. 3,173
per share, having 16% potential downside. As we believe the stock is overvalued
at the current levels, we initiate coverage on TTK Prestige with “SELL”
recommendation.
DCF – FCFE Valuation: We valued TTKP using Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
method to substantiate our FY14E P/E multiple of 20. We have assumed over 20%
growth in top‐line until FY17E and growth in high teens thereafter till FY22E. We
have also assumed that TTKP’s EBITDA margin will be compressed by 200 bps
over FY14E‐22E, with the rise in proportion of kitchen electrical appliances and
higher outsourcing. The FCFE method substantiates our FY14E P/E multiple of 20
for TTKP’s core operations.
Exhibit 1: DCF Valuation using Free Cash Flow to Equity – TTK Prestige
(mn) FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Revenue 14,092 17,351 21,168 25,591 30,709 36,237 42,760 49,174 56,550 65,032
EBITDA 2,198 2,776 3,259 3,812 4,513 5,253 6,113 6,932 7,859 8,973
EBIT 2,090 2,625 3,055 3,578 4,268 5,000 5,814 6,588 7,463 8,517
Depreciation – (b) 108 150 204 234 246 254 299 344 396 455
Interest/Bank Charges 163 139 75 89 107 129 155 186 223 267
Tax 567 742 916 1,093 1,288 1,508 1,752 1,982 2,314 2,637
Other Income 16 16 26 42 54 71 92 119 143 158
Net Income – (a) 1,372 1,755 2,083 2,425 2,910 3,412 3,971 4,503 5,024 5,721
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.6 16.0 15.4 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8
EBIT Margin (%) 14.8 15.1 14.4 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1
Tax Rate (%) 29.2 29.7 30.5 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 32.0 32.0
Change in WC – (c) 469 334 825 1,039 349 472 525 497 543 590
Capex – (d) 1,100 300 400 400 369 355 419 482 554 637
Change in Debt – (e) 487 (710) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
FCFE – (a+b‐c‐d+e) 398 561 1,062 1,220 2,438 2,838 3,327 3,868 4,323 4,949
Terminal FCFE 87,431
Total FCFE 398 561 1,062 1,220 2,438 2,838 3,327 3,868 4,323 92,380
Discounted FCFE ‐ 481 780 768 1,314 1,311 1,317 1,312 1,257 23,011
Cost of Equity (%) 16.7
Terminal Cost of Equity (%) 12.0
Terminal Growth Rate (%) 6.0
Intrinsic Value – (FY14E onwards) 31,953
Number of Shares (Mn) 11.3
Value per Share excl. RE* Value (Rs) 2,823
Implied P/E Multiple 18.2
Terminal FCFE/Intrinsic Value (%) 69
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research; * RE: Real Estate
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Peer Comparison Though the business model of TTK Prestige is not strictly comparable with those
of Hawkins, Butterfly Gandhimati Appliances (BGA), Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) &
Havells, they operate in same space with different set of products. However, we
have provided valuation data for other consumption related companies.
TTKP commands higher P/E multiples than Havells and BJEL, as the former
generates higher EBITDA margins, returns rates and top‐line growth. TTKP’s
multiple premium will reduce in the medium to long‐term as it generates more
revenue from Kitchen Electrical Appliances (KEA) segment, which consists of
major players such as Havells, BJEL, V‐Guard, Panasonic and Philips/Preeti.
A. Multiples Greater than Peers
Currently, the TTKP P/E ratio is similar to that of Page Industries and discount to
Jubilant FoodWorks. However, we believe that TTKP may not get P/E ratios
similar to that of Page Industries and Jubilant FoodWorks, as the shelf‐life of
TTKP’s products is 3‐5 years, while the life‐spans of Page and Jubilant products
are a few months and a few hours respectively.
Exhibit 2: Peer Valuation Table
CMP P/E (x) EPS Growth (%) EBIDTA Margin (%) EV/EBIDTA (x) Price/Sales (x)
(Rs) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
TTK Prestige 3,787 31.1 24.4 21.4 27.8 15.6 16.0 19.3 15.3 3.04 2.47
Bajaj Electricals 201 15.6 11.9 9.3 30.5 7.8 8.4 8.1 6.8 0.56 0.49
Havells India 621 17.6 14.9 19.1 18.4 10.5 10.9 11.0 9.4 1.07 0.98
Other Consumption Based Companies
Page Industries* 3,207 31.3 24.4 27.0 28.3 20.2 20.3 19.6 15.2 4.12 3.23
Jubilant FoodWorks* 1,299 54.6 38.8 45.8 40.6 18.8 19.2 27.5 19.9 5.90 4.35
Source: Bloomberg & Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: The KEA segment is more competitive as no single player commands
over 20% market share in any of the products that they operate, whereas TTKP
& Hawkins together constitute 80% of the market share in pressure cookers.
B. Returns to Decline due to Lower Asset Turnover and EBIT
Margin
TTKP has generated ~45‐55% ROE in the last three years due to higher outsourcing
and in turn higher asset turnover.
Exhibit 3: DuPont Analysis
DuPont Analysis FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Tax Burden (%) 59.3 70.9 82.0 77.2 67.8 69.7 69.4 70.8 70.3 69.5 69.0
Interest Burden (%) 64.5 67.3 69.6 79.9 95.4 96.5 94.0 92.3 94.7 97.6 97.5
EBIT Margin (%) 8.4 8.7 9.3 9.0 14.7 16.3 15.7 14.9 15.2 14.5 14.1
Total Asset T/O 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Financial Leverage 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
ROE (%) 15.0 23.0 28.0 29.2 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35.0 32.5
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: TTKP may not be able to enjoy the similar asset turnovers – due to
recent capex – and lower EBIT margin, which will lead to lower ROE, going
forward.
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Rationale for “SELL” Recommendation
Our investment thesis is based on following premises:
1. Improvement in Market Share to Take a Breather
2. Our Distributor Survey Reveals Substantial Volume Degrowth across Segments
3. Competitive Advantage in Pressure Cookers may not be extended to KEA
4. Six‐Cylinder Policy may not Hike Induction Cook‐top Sales
5. Capacity Constraints to Recede EBITDA Margins from FY15E‐onwards
6. Kitchen Electrical Appliances to Drag Margins
7. International Collaborations
8. US Patent Boost Export of Microwave Pressure Cookers
9. Distribution Network in non‐Southern India needs Improvement
1. Improvement in Market Share to Take a Breather In organized pressure cookers segment, the market share of TTK Prestige (TTKP)
has increased by 8% in last five years. TTKP & Hawkins dominate this segment
with combined market share of 75‐80%. While the volume of TTKP’s pressure
cookers has grown by 23% CAGR in FY07‐11, Hawkins recorded volume growth
at 14% CAGR. TTKP has gained market share from Hawkins due to capacity
constraints at the latter due to issues relating to pollution and labor matters.
Hawkins currently runs at a capacity utilization of ~45% due to the above issues.
Our distributor survey has indicated that Hawkins could not meet the demand in
South India despite consistent demand from distributors and dealers. Hawkins
informed that it resolved the labor issues by reaching an agreement with labor
union, but the Company is yet to resolve pollution issues raised by Punjab
Pollution Control Board.
Our View: TTK Prestige will lose some market share to Hawkins once the latter
resolves its pollution issues and increases production.
2. Our Distributor Survey Reveals Substantial Volume
De‐growth across Segments We have surveyed TTKP distributors in major cities i.e. Chennai, Bangalore,
Hyderabad, New Delhi and Mumbai to gauge the growth rates of major products.
Chennai: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been
high‐single digits and high‐teens respectively. Credit terms for the Pressure
Cookers and KEA are 0‐15 days and 30‐60 days respectively.
Bangalore: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been
mid‐single digits and 10%, respectively. Credit terms for Pressure Cookers and
KEA are 15‐30 days and 30‐60 days respectively. It is also revealed that
intensifying competition leads to margin compression.
Hyderabad: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been
mid‐single digits and teens respectively. Credit terms for Pressure Cookers &
KEA are 0‐7 days and 30‐45 days respectively.
New Delhi: The growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been high‐
teens. Credit terms for Pressure Cookers & KEA are 0‐30 days and 30‐45 days,
respectively.
Mumbai: The credit terms for Pressure Cookers & KEA are 30‐60 days.
Hawkins and Nirali are the leaders in Pressure Cookers and Non‐Stick
Cookware respectively.
Our View: The survey reveals that the
volume growth in Pressure Cookers &
Non‐Stick Cookware decelerated to high‐
single digits, & the volume growth in KEA
– including induction cook‐tops –
decreased to teens.
India’s Consumer Appliances
Sector to Sustain Double‐digit
Growth
India’s consumption is poised to
grow at a faster pace in coming
years, driven by favourable
demographics and higher
disposable incomes. The domestic
consumer appliances sector is quite
attractive due to the extraordinarily
low levels of penetration. We
believe that the macroeconomic
conditions would provide a strong
boost to the consumer appliances
sector, going forward.
Please refer to our Thematic Report
“Consumer Appliances: Rising
Affluence & Favourable
Demographics”, dated 12th Apr’12.
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
A. Growth cools‐off in Induction Cook‐tops, Highest Growth Product: Our survey has revealed that the volume growth rate for Induction Cook‐tops – which
has been growing over 100% in last three years and contributing ~15% to TTKP’s
total revenue in FY12 – has cooled‐off to 20%. The survey has also indicated that
lack of power supply and rise in power‐cost have reduced sales of Induction Cook‐
tops to some extent. Volume growth rates in the rest products in KEA segment
have also declined to mid‐teens.
B. Relaxed Credit Terms in KEA Segment to Increase Debtors: We learnt that
TTKP provides 0‐30 days credit on products i.e. Pressure Cookers & Non‐Stick
Cookware. However, TTKP has relaxed credit days of 30‐60 on KEA, as the
Company is not the market leader in the segment. Moreover, TTKP provides 0‐15
days of credit on Pressure Cookers in South India and 15‐30 days in non‐South
India, where the Hawkins is the market leader in Pressure Cookers.
3. Competitive Advantage in Pressure Cookers may not
be extended to KEA Segment We believe TTKP may not be able to enjoy similar competitive benefit in KEA
segment as it enjoys in Pressure Cooker segment, as it is the leader with 40%
market share in latter segment while competing with players i.e. Havells, Bajaj
Electricals, Panasonic and Preeti/Philips in the former segment. TTKP is a market
leader in Induction Cook‐tops with 20% market share while its market share in
products in KEA segment is in high‐single digits. TTKP outsources most of its
KEAs, especially where it does not have technical expertise. Moreover, the
organized pressure cooker market is closer to duopoly whereas KEA segment
markets represent oligopolies.
4. Six‐Cylinder Policy may not Aid Induction Cook‐top
Sales Growth Government of India (GoI) has recently issued a policy statement that it would
provide six cylinders to each family on subsidized prices and remaining cylinders
will be sold at market prices. We believe the implementation of the above policy
may not boost induction cook‐top sales to a great extent due to the following
reasons.
Congress Party has asked state governments, which are ruled by their party, to
increase number of subsidized cylinders from 6 to 9.
TTK Prestige generates 62% of sales from South India, which is a power
deficient region. Percentage of Non‐South India sales has not increased much
during the last three years.
Power cuts are in the range of 1‐3 hours during peak hours ‐ which is also
cooking time ‐ in Hyderabad and Chennai. Tier‐II/III cities experience power
cuts in the range of 5‐6 hours during peak hours. The situation will even
worsen in summers.
South India’s power supply deficit has increased to 16% in August 2012 as
against 4% in August 2011.
Power situation in South India may not be improved in next two years due to
coal supply issues and state governments have not increased power
generation capacities in the recent past.
Power supply to South India from rest of the country is limited by power
transmission constraints, which cannot be improved until January 2014.
Our View: TTKP’s growth in KEA
segment will decline to ~30% in FY12‐15E
from 65% CAGR in FY08‐12.
Our View: TTKP’s debtors will rise
significantly with the rise in revenue
share – as a percentage of total sales – of
KEA segment and non‐South India.
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Prospective Induction cook‐top buyers need to buy a new set of utensils along
with induction cook‐tops.
Exhibit 4: Power Deficit Situation in South‐India
Power Deficit (%) Aug 12 Aug 11 Apr‐Aug 12 Apr‐Aug 11
Andhra Pradesh 20.9 0.3 15.1 8.4
Karnataka 16.2 7.3 13.1 11.4
Tamil Nadu 14.0 4.4 14.6 11.3
Kerala 2.2 3.4 3.1 8.0
Southern Region 16.0 4.4 13.4 7.2
Source: Ministry of Power, GoI
5. Capacity Constraints to Recede EBITDA Margins from
FY15E‐onwards TTKP has been on capex drive since FY11 and spent Rs. 1.9 bn until Q4FY12, while
the Company mulls spending another Rs. 1.1 bn in FY13E to double its annual
non‐stick cookware capacity to 12 mn pieces and increase the annual induction
cook‐tops capacity to 1 mn pieces. It also plans to spend Rs. 200 mn in FY14E as
maintenance capex. TTKP generates an EBITDA margin of ~19% on in‐house
manufactured products and ~12% on outsourced products.
Our View: TTKP’s capacity utilization will peak by FY14E, as in its drive to boost
sales it has to hike in‐house capacity or rely on outsourcing after FY14E. While
the 1st option will lead to decreased free cash flows, increased debt levels,
depreciation and interest and the 2nd option will result in decreased EBITDA
margin. Both the options will adversely impact TTKP’s PAT margins, cash flows,
return ratios and valuations from FY15E onwards.
Exhibit 5: In‐house/Outsourced manufacturing information
Product Segment Remarks
Pressure Cookers
& Pans
In‐house Mfg: TTKP has expanded production capacity to 8 mn, which we believe is sufficient until FY14E. The
Company has to either increase mfg capacity or outsource mfg to meet demand from FY15E onwards
Non‐stick
Cookware
In‐house & Outsourced Mfg till FY12: TTKP has expanded production capacity to 6 mn in FY12E and will be further
expanded to 12 mn by FY13E. We believe the Company has to either increase mfg capacity or outsource mfg to meet
demand from FY15E onwards
Gas Stoves Outsourced Mfg:
Kitchen Electrical
Appliances
Outsourced Mfg till FY12: TTKP has built mfg facility for induction cook‐tops for ~1 mn pieces, and it plans to outsource
a portion of induction cook‐tops. Other products i.e. Mixers/Grinders, Juicers, and Kettles will be outsourced
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 6: Installed Capacity (mn)
Product Segment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Pressure Cookers 4.0 4.8 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Nonstick Cookware 1.8 2.0 2.0 6.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Induction Cook‐tops NA NA NA NA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 7: Sales Volume (mn) Product Segment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Pressure Cookers 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.1 7.1 8.1
Nonstick Cookware 1.2 1.9 3.5 5.1 6.1 7.3 8.7 10.5
Induction Cook‐tops NA NA NA 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
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September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Exhibit 8: Production (mn)
Product Segment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Pressure Cookers 2.3 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.4
Nonstick Cookware 1.3 1.7 1.7 5.1 6.1 7.3 8.7 9.6
Induction Cook‐tops NA NA NA NA 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 9: Capacity Utilization (%)
Product Segment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Pressure Cookers 57.1 57.6 80.9 55.6 66.8 76.8 80.0 80.0
Nonstick Cookware 70.5 85.6 85.0 84.3 50.6 60.7 72.9 80.0
Induction Cook‐tops NA NA NA NA 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 10: Outsourcing Percentage (%)
Product Segment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Remarks
Pressure Cookers ‐ 2.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 9.4 21.2 Need Capex in FY14E.
Nonstick Cookware ‐ 11.6 52.0 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8.5 Need Capex in FY15E.
Induction Cook‐tops NA NA NA NA 33.9 49.2 60.9 69.9Recent Capex is not good enough for 100% in‐
house manufacturing of induction cook‐tops.
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Impact of Higher Capex & Outsourcing on Margins: TTKP has to spend Rs. 3‐3.5
bn in FY14‐15E to maintain 100% in‐house manufacturing in Pressure Cooker &
Non‐Stick Cookware segments. It has to raise Rs. 2.5 bn to meet the capex plan, but
interest on new loan coupled with higher depreciation will drag its PAT margins
by 80 bps. Moreover, ~45‐50% of sales have to be outsourced from FY14‐FY15E
onwards in case TTKP won’t undertake the afore‐mentioned capex. We believe
that the expected higher outsourcing will reduce TTKP’s EBITDA & PAT
margins by ~100 bps and ~70 bps, respectively.
6. Kitchen Electrical Appliances to Drag Margins TTKP generates an EBITDA margin of ~19% on in‐house manufactured products
and ~12% on outsourced products. TTKP’s sales in Kitchen Electrical Appliances
(KEA) segment have been outgrowing its rest segments and we believe the
Company will be able to continue the same in future. TTKP’s outsourcing
percentage would increase after FY14E as it doesn’t make much economical sense
to invest in capacity for small KEA segment.
Exhibit 11: Revenue Contribution Percentage of each Segment
Revenue Contribution (%) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Comment
Pressure cookers 55 53 47 41 37 36 34 33 32 Needs capex in FY14E
Nonstick cookware 16 15 17 20 20 19 19 19 19 Needs capex in FY15E
Gas Stoves 10 10 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 Outsourced
Kitchen Electrical Appliances 14 17 20 25 31 35 37 40 41 Major portion of induction cook‐tops and rest of
kitchen electrical appliances are outsourced
Other 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Outsourced
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: The expected EBITDAM of
16.0% in FY14E will be the highest margin
that TTKP will achieve with latest capex
and current trend of raw material prices.
Our View: TTKP’s outsourcing percentage
will increase with the rise in sales in KEA
segment. Higher outsourcing will decrease
EBITDA margins of the company.
9
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
7. International Collaborations TTKP has tied‐up with various MNCs to introduce new products in India through
co‐branding to leverage its distribution network.
Alliance with US‐based World Kitchen: Through this alliance TTKP will
introduce high‐end Tableware/Cookware & Storeware with Prestige logo.
Alliance with Germany‐based Schott AG: TTKP has launched gas stoves
made from Schott tempered flat glass and an induction cook‐top with glass‐
ceramic cook‐tops.
Alliance with Switzerland‐based Vestergaard Frandson Group: Through this
alliance TTKP will manufacture and market water filters across India.
Water Filter Market: Water Purifier market – estimated to be Rs. 16 bn – is
dominated by players i.e. Hindustan Unilever, Kent Healthcare, Tata Chemicals
and Eureka Forbes. The market is set for tough competition as the biggies such as
Godrej, Panasonic and LG are also gearing up to take on the existing players.
8. US Patent to Boost Export of Microwave Pressure
Cookers in FY13E TTKP has received US patent for Microwave Pressure Cookers recently and has
been exporting the same to the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, France, China, Korea
and Middle‐East. It Management expects to increase export quantity from 0.17 mn
in FY12 to 0.8 mn pieces in FY13E.
Our View: The rise in exports will boost TTKP’s pressure cooker sales by 8%,
while its overall sales would grow by 3% in FY13E. TTKP’s exports – as a
percentage of sales – will rise to 6% in FY13E from 3% on FY12.
9. Distribution Network in non‐South India needs
Improvement TTKP has a total retail network of 30,000 outlets. It has multiple distribution
channels i.e. traditional retail outlets, modern trade formats, own retail outlets,
hyper/super markets and institutions such as HPCL, BPCL and military canteens.
Exhibit 12: TTK Prestige Distribution Structure
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Branded Retail Outlets: TTKP has also increased its own branded retail outlets i.e.
Prestige Smart Kitchen (PSK) that covers 21 states and 179 towns in India. The
number of PSK outlets increased to 356 in FY12 from 51 in FY05.
Our View: It will be difficult for TTKP to
gain notable market share in water
purifier segment amid intense competition
from the market leaders.
Sales by distribution channel –
FY11
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Sales by region – FY12
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Traditi
onal
Retail,
63%
Moder
n
Trade,
10%
Own
Retail,
15%
Institut
ions,
12%
South,
62%
West,
15%
North
and
East,
20%
Export
s, 3%
10
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Exhibit 13: Number of Prestige Smart Kitchen (PSK) Outlets
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: While TTKP has strong distribution network in South, its distribution
network in non‐South India needs improvement. Its KEA segment competes with
major players i.e. Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) and Havells who having networks
consisting of 55,000 and 45,000 outlets. BJEL is spread across India and Havells
presence is strong in Northern, Eastern and Southern parts. Hawkins, TTKP’s
competitor in pressure cookers, has developed its forte in West and North India.
Karvy vs. Consensus Exhibit 14: Karvy vs. Consensus
EPS Sales Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) NI Growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) NI Margin (%)
FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E
Karvy 121.6 155.5 27.7 23.1 24.4 26.3 21.4 27.8 15.6 16.0 9.8 10.1
Consensus* 128.4 166.8 30.3 26.1 23.9 28.5 28.4 30.2 15.4 15.7 10.1 10.5
Difference (6.8) (11.4) (2.6) (3.0) 0.5 (2.2) (7.0) (2.4) 0.2 0.3 (0.4) (0.3)
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research, * Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Number of PSK Outlets
11
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Key Assumptions & Estimates Exhibit 15: Key Assumptions & Estimates
Key Financials Estimates Growth (%) Comments
(Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Revenue by Product
Pressure cookers & Pans 3,169 4,132 5,124 6,046 7,134 30.4 24.0 18.0 18.0 Market leadership, strong brand‐equity and
exports
Non Stick Cookware 1,540 2,247 2,764 3,399 4,079 45.9 23.0 23.0 20.0 Rising middle class, strong branding to sustain
growth
Gas Stoves 808 1,008 1,160 1,334 1,467 24.7 15.0 15.0 10.0
Kitchen Appliances 1,929 3,494 4,752 6,178 8,031 81.1 36.0 30.0 30.0 Slow down in induction cook‐tops & KEA.
New JVs ‐ ‐ 250 400 520 60.0 30.0 Introduction of new products from JVs.
Others 266 280 288 297 306 5.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
Net Revenues 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168 44.5 27.7 23.1 22.0
EBITDA
EBITDA 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259 41.0 24.4 26.3 17.4 With rise in outsourced mfg, margin to dip by 40
bps in FY13E & rise by 40bps in FY14E with rise
in in‐house mfg. EBITDA (%) 16.4 16.0 15.6 16.0 15.4
Depreciation 43 62 108 150 204 46.5 72.8 39.2 36.1
Other income 43 31 16 16 26 (28.4) (48.7) ‐ 63.2
EBIT 1,254 1,736 2,106 2,641 3,081 38.5 21.3 25.4 16.6
Interest Expense 44 103 163 139 75 133.7 57.3 (14.3) (46.5) Interest expense will rise as TTKP raises debt in
FY13E to meet capex requirements.
Adjusted PBT 1,209 1,632 1,943 2,502 3,006 35.0 19.0 28.8 20.2
Tax 366 499 567 742 916 36.3 13.6 31.0 23.4
Tax rate 30.3 30.6 29.2 29.7 30.5
Reported net profit 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091 35.4 21.4 27.8 18.8
Net Profit (%) 11.0 10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9
CFO – (a) 500 841 676 1,126 790
CFI – (b) (212) (1,540) (1,100) (300) (400) TTKP will spend Rs. 1.11 bn in FY13E; It will
resort to maintenance capex in FY14E
FCF – (a+b) 288 (699) (424) 826 390 Cash proceeds will be used to repay debt and
invest in liquid assets CFF – (c) (192) 387 487 (710) (250)
Total Change in Cash 96 (312) 63 116 140
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Key Risks
Up‐side Risks:
Decline in Commodity Prices amid Stronger INR: Any decrease in aluminum
prices and stronger INR might increase the margins and profitability of the
Company.
Success of Newly‐launched Products: TTKP has tied‐up with various MNCs
to introduce new products in India. Hence success of these newly launched
products will be catalyst for TTKP’s growth.
Significant Incremental Export Volume: TTKP has received US patent for
Microwave Pressure Cooker and hence any significant incremental rise in
export volume will also boost profitability of the Company.
Down‐side Risks:
Intense Competition: Intense competition in consumer‐related business units
may impact TTKP’s profit margins, as the barriers to entry in the industry are
low.
Extended Slowdown in Domestic Economy: Continued slow growth in
India’s GDP might reduce TTKP’s growth prospects.
12
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Financial Overview
A. Lower Growth in KEA Segment to Drag Top‐line
Growth
TTKP’s revenue grew by ~50% CAGR in the last two years led by Kitchen
Electrical Appliances (KEA) with CAGR of 83%, while the sales of Induction Cook‐
tops quadrupled. The KEA segment has increased its share of revenues from 20%
in FY10 to 31% in FY12.
Exhibit 16: Revenue Growth Rates (%)
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: TTKP’s top‐line growth rate will decline to 24% CAGR in FY12‐15E, as
the sales of Induction Cook‐tops and other appliances decrease to high‐teens.
B. Asset Turnover Ratio to Decrease due to Capex TTKP has increased its Asset Turnover Ratio from 3.5 in FY09 to 4.3 in FY12
through high revenue growth, increased capacity utilization and outsourced
manufacturing.
Exhibit 17: Revenue & Asset Turnover
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: The Asset Turnover Ratio will decrease to 3.5 by FY14E due to recent
and proposed capital investments in FY12 & FY13E and reduced reliance on
outsourced manufacturing.
‐
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
Kitchen Electrical Appliances Company Revenue Growth
4,013 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168
3.5
4.3 4.6
4.3
3.6 3.5 3.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
Revenue Asset Turnover
13
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
C. TTKP to Reach EBITDA Margin Overhang in FY14E TTKP’s EBITDA margin grew by 660 bps to 16.4% in FY09‐11, while its margin
decreased by 40 bps in FY12 due to higher outsourcing and raw material prices.
TTKP’s margin is likely to decrease further by 40 bps in FY13E and rise by 40 bps
to 16.0% in FY14E due to the ongoing capital investments, which will increase in‐
house manufacturing and in‐turn the margin.
Exhibit 18: EBITDA & EBITDA Margin
Source: Company& Karvy Institutional Research
Our view: TTKP will be able to report highest margin in FY14E with the on‐going
capital investments, and the Company needs to invest in new capacities to meet
growing demands for Pressure Cookers & Non‐Stick Cookware from FY15E
onwards. EBITDA Margin will decrease from FY15E as the outsourcing from KEA
and/or Pressure Cooker segments & Non‐stick Cookware increase.
D. Net Income Margin to Reduce in FY13E TTKP’s net income margin grew by 480 bps to 10.3% in FY09‐12, which is likely to
decline by 50 bps to 9.8% in FY13E due to compression in EBITDA margin, higher
depreciation and interest.
Exhibit 19: Net Income & Net Income Margin
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
393 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259
9.8
15.2
16.4 16.0 15.6
16.0 15.4
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
224 524 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091
5.6
10.3 11.0
10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
Net Proft Net Profit Margin
Our view: The net profit margin will
decline from FY15E onwards, as the
capacity utilization will peak by FY14E.
In its drive to boost sales, TTKP has to
hike in‐house capacity or rely on
outsourcing after FY14E. While the 1st
option will lead to decreased free cash
flows, increased debt levels, depreciation
and interest and the 2nd option will result
in decreased EBITDA margin. Both the
options will adversely impact TTKP’s
PAT margins, cash flows, return ratios
and valuations from FY15E onwards.
14
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
E. ROCE & ROE to Decline due to On‐going Capex and
Lower EBIT Margin
TTKP’s ROCE & ROE have improved due to high Asset Turnover and increased
EBIT margins. We believe ROCE & ROE will decline going forward due to on‐
going investment in capex to reduce reliance on outsourced manufacturing.
Exhibit 20: Return Ratio (%)
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Our View: The need for higher capital investment and rise in sales in KEA segment
will reduce ROCE & ROE, going forward.
24.3
42.0
51.1
46.0
37.9 37.2 35.6 32.9
29.2
46.4
53.4
47.6
40.4 38.2
35.0 32.5
‐
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E FY2016E
ROCE ROE
15
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Exhibit 21: Profit & Loss Statement
(Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Net revenues 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168
% Growth 26.6 50.3 44.5 27.7 23.1 22
Raw Material 2,686 4,409 6,644 8,484 10,228 12,374
Staff 393 530 730 960 1,217 1,527
Operating Expenses 1,227 1,443 1,893 2,450 3,130 4,009
Operating expenses 4,306 6,382 9,267 11,894 14,575 17,909
EBIDTA 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259
Growth (%) 97 62 41 24.4 26.3 17.4
EBIDTA margin (%) 15.2 16.4 16 15.6 16 15.4
Other income 11 43 31 16 16 26
Interest 35 44 103 163 139 75
Depreciation 36 43 62 108 150 204
Profit Before Tax 714 1,209 1,632 1,943 2,502 3,006
Provision for tax 230 366 499 567 742 916
Effective tax rate (%) 32.2 30.3 30.6 29.2 29.7 30.5
Adjusted Net Profit 485 843 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091
% Growth 116.5 74 34.4 21.4 27.8 18.8
Reported Net Profit 524 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 22: Balance Sheet
(Rs. mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Equity capital 113 113 113 113 113 113
Reserves & surplus 1,128 1,801 2,738 3,843 5,152 6,563
Shareholders’ funds 1,242 1,915 2,851 3,956 5,266 6,676
Short term Loans ‐ 14 26 160 ‐ ‐
Long Term Loans 28 43 197 550 ‐ ‐
Total Loans 28 58 223 710 ‐ ‐
Deferred tax liability 31 33 68 ‐ ‐ ‐
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,301 2,005 3,142 4,666 5,266 6,676
Gross block 835 892 2,029 3,525 3,945 4,428
Depreciation 430 473 522 630 780 985
Net block 405 419 1,507 2,896 3,164 3,443
Capital WIP 235 391 794 397 278 194
Investments 4 4 4 4 4 4
LT Loans and Advances ‐ 119 97 138 123 126
Inventory 613 1,050 1,749 2,216 2,651 3,415
Debtors 603 747 1,060 1,411 1,771 2,204
Cash & Bank Balance 440 535 223 286 402 542
Current Assets 2,081 3,322 4,435 5,573 6,704 8,723
Sundry Creditors 266 380 684 830 1,001 1,219
Other current liabilities 1,158 1,869 3,010 3,511 4,005 4,595
Current Liabilities 1,424 2,250 3,694 4,341 5,007 5,814
Net current assets 657 1,072 741 1,232 1,697 2,909
Total Assets 1,301 2,005 3,142 4,666 5,266 6,676
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
16
September 26, 2012
TTK Prestige
Exhibit 23: Cash Flow Statement
(Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
EBIT 738 1,211 1,705 2,090 2,625 3,055
(Inc.)/Dec in working capital 159 ‐217 ‐181 ‐469 ‐334 ‐825
Cash flow from operations 897 994 1,525 1,621 2,291 2,230
Other income 11 43 31 16 16 26
Depreciation 34 43 49 108 150 204
Interest paid (‐) ‐35 ‐44 ‐103 ‐163 ‐139 ‐75
Tax paid (‐) ‐230 ‐366 ‐499 ‐567 ‐742 ‐916
Dividends paid (‐) ‐132 ‐164 ‐197 ‐272 ‐450 ‐680
Deferred Tax Liability 0 1 36 ‐68 ‐ ‐
Extraordinaries 40 ‐6 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Net cash from operations 586 500 841 676 1,126 790
Capital expenditure (‐) ‐79 ‐212 ‐1,540 ‐1,100 ‐300 ‐400
Net cash after capex 507 288 ‐699 ‐424 826 390
Inc./(Dec.) in short‐term borrowing ‐ 14 11 135 ‐160 ‐
Inc./(dec.) in long‐term borrowing ‐179 15 154 353 ‐550 ‐
Inc./(dec.) in borrowings ‐179 30 165 487 ‐710 ‐
(Inc.)/Dec. in investments ‐ ‐222 222 ‐ ‐ ‐250
Equity issue/(Buyback) 3 0 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Cash from Financial Activities ‐176 ‐192 387 487 ‐710 ‐250
Opening cash 109 440 535 223 286 402
Closing cash 440 535 223 286 402 542
Change in cash 331 96 ‐312 63 116 140
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 24: Key Ratios
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Raw Material Cost / Sales (%) 52.9 57.7 60.2 60.2 58.9 58.5
Manpower Cost / Sales (%) 7.7 6.9 6.6 6.8 7 7.2
Operating & Other cost / Sales (%) 24.1 18.9 17.2 17.4 18 18.9
Revenue Growth (%) 26.6 50.3 44.5 27.7 23.1 22
EBIDTA Margins (%) 15.2 16.4 16 15.6 16 15.4
Net Income Margins (%) 9.5 11 10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9
ROCE (%) 42 51.1 46 37.9 37.2 35.6
ROE (%) 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 25: Key Ratios
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
EPS (Rs) 42.8 74.5 100.1 121.6 155.5 184.7
P/E (x) 88.5 50.8 37.8 31.1 24.4 20.5
BV (Rs) 109.7 169.2 251.9 349.5 465.2 589.8
P/BV (x) 34.5 22.4 15 10.8 8.1 6.4
EV/EBIDTA (x) 54.8 33.8 24 19.3 15.3 13
Fixed assets turnover ratio (x) 13.3 18.5 11.5 6.4 5.7 6.4
Debt/Equity (x) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.18 ‐ ‐
EV/Sales (x) 8.4 5.6 3.9 3.1 2.4 2
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Institutional Equities Team Rangachari Muralikrishnan
Head – Institutional Equities /
Research / Strategy +91‐22 61844301 [email protected]
Shridhar Iyer Head ‐ Institutional Sales +91‐22 61844302 [email protected]
K. Anant Rao Head ‐ Sales‐Trading & Derivatives +91‐22 61844303 [email protected]
Uday Raval Karvy Inc. USA +1 212 2674334 [email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Analysts Industry / Sector Desk Phone Email ID
Dwaipayan Poddar Chief Technical Strategist +91‐22 61844372 [email protected]
Hatim Broachwala, CFA Banking +91‐22 61844329 [email protected]
Jagadishwar Pasunoori, CFA, FRM MidCap +91‐40‐44857912 [email protected]
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Dinesh Bajaj Sales +91‐22 61844341 [email protected]
Dipesh Jain Sales +91‐22 61844342 [email protected]
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INSTITUTIONAL SALES TRADING & DEALING
Bhavesh Gandhi Institutional Dealer +91‐22 61844368 /69 [email protected]
Prashant Oza Institutional Dealer +91‐22 61844370 /71 [email protected]
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For further enquiries please contact:
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Disclosures Appendix
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein
accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their)
compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this
research report.
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