Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 25 April 2016

8/18/2019 Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 25 April 2016

1/19


2/19

TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : The Market has opened sharply higher on Monday with the Nifty raise

more than 58 points or 0.7 per cent. Crude oil prices tumbled some 5 per cent early

Monday after the failure of talks between the oil exporting countries in Doha shown result

in return of some risk off sentiment, impacted the market. The domestic market has many

reasons on the macro front to be euphoric last week, after industrial production showed a

spike, CPI inflation slipped and the Met department predicted a good monsoon ahead. And

the WPI data miss the consensus. On the domestic front the indian trade deficit has narrow

to its lowest level of 5 Years. Fourth quarter earnings will be the key driving force for the

domestic stock market in the upcoming trading sessions. Data released by the US labour

department showed The number of US worker who applied for the unemployment benefits

decline last week to its 43 year lower level. The European Central Bank on Thursday

maintained status quo on policy rate. The Nifty is moving toward the 7950-8000 level

which will be the crucial breakout for the Nifty. The Resistance for Nifty is 7980-8020 and

Support is 7850-7800.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty opened on Monday in a positive notes at 16328 up by

50 points and 0.31 per cent. Only the Reserve Bank of India knows the absolute mess that

the country's banking sector is faced with, as it recently declined the Supreme Court order

to make the figure of bad loans public. Assocham thinks that number may touch Rs 10

lakh crore this quarter. Rating agency Moody's feels that the "under-recognition" of bad

loans can further deteriorate asset quality of the public lenders. We should brace ourselves

for another bloodbath. The European Central Bank on Thursday maintained status quo on

policy rate. The weak US economic data reinforced views that Federal Reserve monetary

policy would remain dovish. The Crucial Support for the Nifty is around 15980-15660 and

the Resistance is 16800-17200.

Monday, 25 April 2016


3/19

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

8042 7946 7898 7850 7754

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

8307 8039 7905 7771 7503

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9176 8256 7796 7336 6416

BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

17277 16869 16665 16461 16053

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

18754 17244 16489 15734 14224

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

18754 17244 16489 15734 14224

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 7713 7479 7580 7880

BANK NIFTY 16076 15257 15757 16782

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 7610 7180 6820

BANK NIFTY 15632 14280 18023


4/19

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart -

On the Above given chart of Nifty has applied the Fibonacci retracement along with

MACD these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Nifty

daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the Trend line for more than

the week period and it is not able to break the up level. However in upcoming trading

session it could come back the level which is the strong Support for the Nifty50 around

7850. Now we are expecting that if the Nifty is able to sustain the 7800 level we may

witness the consolidation trend of Nifty for some more sessions on the other hand if Nifty

rebound the 7880-7950 level again we may see the positive rally in the index. The Strong

Support for Nifty 50 is 7850-7800 and the Resistance is 7920-8000.


5/19

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Details of Chart-

On the Above given chart of Bank Nifty has applied the Channel line along with MACD

these are the trend identifying pattern and made the Resistance level in the Bank Nifty

daily chart that made on the above given chart we have draw the Channel line for more

than the week period and it is not able to break the up level. However in upcoming

trading session it could break the upper level which is the strong Resistance for the

Nifty50 around 16900. Now we are expecting that if the Bank Nifty is able to sustain the

16700 level we may witness the consolidation trend of Bank Nifty for some more

sessions on the other hand if Bank Nifty rebound the 16700-16900 level again we may

see the positive rally in the index. The Strong Support for Bank Nifty is 16500-16350 and

the Resistance is 16900-17200.


6/19

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1441 1427 1419 1405 1397

ALBK EQ 62 61 60 59 58

AMBUJACEM EQ 226 223 220 218 214ASIAN PAINT EQ 903 888 879 864 855

AXISBANK EQ 488 482 472 465 456

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2594 2560 2519 2485 2444

BANKBARODA EQ 169 165 160 157 152

BANKINDIA EQ 101 99 98 96 95

BHEL EQ 130 129 128 126 125

BHARTIARTL EQ 361 357 353 349 345

CIPLA EQ 541 536 532 527 522

COALINDIA EQ 291 289 287 286 284

DLF EQ 125 124 123 122 120

DRREDDY EQ 3179 3155 3136 3112 3093

GAIL EQ 372 369 367 364 362

GRASIM EQ 4088 4050 4009 3971 3930

HCLTECH EQ 859 853 845 839 831

HDFC EQ 1165 1148 1134 1117 1103

HDFCBANK EQ 1107 1100 1092 1085 1077

HEROMOTOCO EQ 3065 3034 2993 2962 2921

HINDALCO EQ 104 102 101 100 99

HINDUNILVR EQ 909 907 904 902 899

ICICIBANK EQ 260 256 253 249 246

ITC EQ 334 330 327 323 320

INDUSIND BANK EQ 998 990 980 972 962

INFY EQ 1236 1224 1215 1203 1194

JINDALSTEL EQ 76 74 73 72 71

KOTAKBANK EQ 688 682 677 671 666

LT EQ 1286 1276 1258 1248 1230

M&M EQ 1354 1340 1321 1307 1288

MRF EQ 36370 35955 35685 35270 35000

MARUTI EQ 3929 3873 3776 3720 3623

ONGC EQ 220 218 215 213 211

ORIENTBANK EQ 104 102 98 95 91

RCOM EQ 61 59 56 55 52RELCAPITAL EQ 419 409 398 388 377

RELIANCE EQ 1056 1047 1038 1029 1020

RELINFRA EQ 567 561 553 547 539

RPOWER EQ 68 60 56 49 44

SBIN EQ 208 204 198 194 188

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 108 106 105 104 103

SUNPHARMA EQ 833 826 822 816 812

TATAMOTORS EQ 428 422 415 410 403

TATAPOWER EQ 71 71 70 70 69

TATASTEEL EQ 368 361 357 349 345

UNIONBANK EQ 138 135 133 131 128


7/19

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER ECHNICAL ANALYSIS PRIDICTION )

FUTURES PACK

NSE FUTURE : BUY RELIANCE CAPITAL FUTURE ABOVE 408 TGT 450 SL 400

NSE FUTURE : SELL PETRONET FUTURE BELOW 262 TGT 240 SL 270

NSE FUTURE : BUY BANKBARODA FUTURE ABOVE 164 TGT 180 SL 159.

CASH PACK

NSE CASH : BUY MARKSANS NSE CASH ABOVE 51 TGT 58 SL 48.

NSE CASH : BUY TATAPOWER NSE CASH ABOVE 72.50 TGT 90 SL 63.

NSE CASH : BUY AMTEKAUTO NSE CASH ABOVE 42 TGT 55 SL 38.50.

NSE CASH : BUY SREINFRA NSE CASH ABOVE 66 TGT 73 SL 62.

NSE CASH : BUY QUICKHEAL NSE CASH ABOVE 262 TGT 275 SL 255.

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1 ALKEM LAB 1329 1233-7.20 %

2 J K CEMENTT 672 624-7.16 %

3 RAJESH EXPORT 605 572-5.47 %

4 TCS 2506 2417-3.57 %

5 LIC HOUSING FIN 476 460-3.44 %

6 APOLLO TYRES 168 162-3.27 %

7 MASTEK LTD. 151 146-3.24 %

8 ABB INDIA 1381 1337-3.17 %

9 NMDC LTD. 102.70 100.00-2.63 %

10 HAVELLS INDIA 347 338-2.54 %

11 BHARTI INFRATEL 381 371-2.54 %

12 ACC 1447 1414-2.28 %

13 INTELLECT DESIG 233 229-1.88 %

14 JET AIRWAYS 626 615

-1.70 %

15 WIPRO LIMITED 565 557 -1.38 %

SR.NO SCRIPT NAMEPREV

CLOSECMP % CHANGE

1ICICI BANK 224.70 252.00 +12.15 %

2 AXIS BANK LTD. 429 475 +10.71 %

3MARUTI SUZUKI 3478 3816 + 9.70 %

4 HINDALCO INDUS. 92.20 101.10 +9.65 %

5BANK OF BARODA 149 161 +8.44 %

6 TATA MOTORS LTD. 386 417 +7.85 %

7M&M 1236 1326 +7.28 %

8 TATA STEEL 331 353 +6.79 %

9NTPC 134 143 +6.72 %

10 SBI 188 200 +6.32 %

11CIPLA 502 531 +5.81 %

12 HDFC 1079 1131 +4.82 %

13L&T 1213 1265 +4.27 %

14 ONGC 207 216 +4.09 %

15ULTRATECH CEM 3152 3271 +3.77 %


8/19

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

India continues to maintain high growth: Arun Jaitley - Union Finance Minister Arun

Jaitley has given the Speech at the IMFC Plenary Session in Washington D.C.s where the

Finance Minister spoke about the Global Economy, Indian Economy and the role of IMF

among other issues: Global Economy As outlined in the GPA, global growth remains

disappointing. Advanced economies and EMEs are also expected to grow at a lower rate

than previously projected. We support the policy options advocated by the GPA,

particularly the emphasis on structural reforms for improving productivity and potential

growth. Collective policy actions would also be helpful in mutually reinforcing economic

activity and stability.

Indian economy like 'one-eyed' king in land of blind says Rajan - With India beingdescribed as 'the bright spot in the global economy', Reserve Bank of India Governor

Raghuram Rajan expects this as a case of "the one-eyed man" being king in the land of

the blind, according to reports. "I think we have still to get to a place where we feel

satisfied. We have this saying -- 'In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king'. We

are a little bit that way," Rajan said. Rajan was for Spring Meetings of the World Bank

and the IMF, as also for the G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank

Governors. We feel things are turning to the point where we could achieve what we

believe is our medium-run growth potential," Rajan said.

Stress assets of banks may notch upto Rs.10 lakh crore in Q4 - Given the slowdown

in certain important sectors like steel, textiles, aluminium etc, and the ongoing Asset

Quality Review, may push stressed assets of the banks to Rs. 10 lakh crore mark in the

fourth quarter of the current fiscal, reveals the ASSOCHAM latest study. At the end of

December, the total stressed assets Gross NPA+ restructured assets of all the banks were

at Rs. 8 lakh crore which is expected to see a significant jump in the current quarter itself,

adds the study. Asset Quality Review undertaken by the RBI and other factors have

resulted in a spike in bad assets with lenders recognising nearly Rs. one lakh of NPAs.

Total stressed assets of banks increased to Rs. 7.40 lakh crore at the end of March 2015

from Rs 2.33 lakh crore as on March 2011, nearly a four-fold increase. As regards the

Gross NPAs, it surged to Rs. 4,01,590 crore at the end of December 2015 from Rs

2,98,641 crore, a jump of over Rs 1 lakh crore in nine months of the current fiscal.


9/19

Good rains can propel Growth to 8.5 % expect rate cut : Arun Jaitley - Finance

minister Arun Jaitley said India's economic growth could surge to 8.5%, especially if the

monsoon is as bountiful as forecast, adding that he hopes interest rates will fall further as

prices trend lower. For his part, Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan too has

his eye on the June-September rainy season, which will be a key determinant of how

much further he wants to take the central bank's accommodative stance. Jaitley

"highlighted that GDP growth target could move 7.5 to 8-8.5 % if monsoon is 16 % as

forecast.

Separate morality from NPA clean-up: Raghuram Rajan - RBI Governor Raghuram

Rajan said on Tuesday that the issue of bad loans gets loaded with a lot of morality and it

is necessary to keep criminal liability separate to put stressed assets back on track. “What

is happening on the NPA front...this becomes loaded with a lot of morality; are these

good people, bad people. I think one should take out the morality from the NPA clean-

up,” he said in a Lecture at Columbia Law School in New York.

Services Sector Driving Indian Economy : President Pranab Mukherjee - The Indian

Service Industry which contribute the 72 per cent of the GDP, it is the main source of

indian economy to create the systematic way to overcome the deficit type things. Terming

the services sector as the "sector of the current millennium", President Pranab Mukherjee

on Wednesday said it has emerged as an agent of change for the country and is driving

the Indian economy in an inclusive and equitable manner. "This sector drives the Indian

economy in an inclusive and equitable manner. It is the 'sector of the current millennium',

in terms of generating employment, skill development, bringing in FDI, enhancing trade

and boosting strategic partnerships," President said.

India to become $10 trillion economy by 2032: Amitabh Kant - Niti Aayog CEO

Amitabh Kant on Thursday gave a 2032 date to India becoming a $10-trillion economy, a

year after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India should dream of a $20 trillioneconomy but did not fix a target. The PM, while speaking at the ET Global Summit last

year had asked why the country could not dream of a $20-trillion economy and said his

government was preparing the ground for it. Kant, in a presentation before the Prime

Minister on Thursday, said the country needs work towards a 10% growth rate year-

onyear against its projected growth rate of 7.4% to achieve a $10 trillion economy by

2032.


10/19

India trims American govt securities exposure to $118.8 billion - After hiking its

exposure to US government securities in the past few months, India trimmed the holdings

to $ 118.8 billion in February even as neighbouring China purchased more such

instruments. All the BRIC nations, except China, cut their exposure to these securities in

February, with Russia reducing its holding by $ 9 billion to $ 87.6 billion. Latest data

available with the US Treasury Department shows that India's holding came down to $

118.8 billion in February compared to $ 119.8 billion recorded in January this year. Since

November, India had been raising its exposure and at that time the holdings were worth $

115.4 billion. It went up marginally to $ 116.8 billion in December.

India's trade deficit hits worrying level; non-trade barriers hamper export potential

- It was known India would be faring poorly on the exports front during the year gone by.

What came in as a big surprise was the surge in India's trade deficit with China, which

compounded at an annual growth rate of 30 per cent between FY06 and 2016, or thrice as

fast as India’s overall trade deficit. That, when India’s trade deficit for 2016 actually

narrowed to a six-year low of 5.7 per cent of GDP in 2016 from 6.7 per cent in 2015 and

8 per cent in 2010. During FY16, India’s exports fell 15.9% to $261.1 billion in 2015-16

while imports contracted by 15.3% to $379.6 billion. The trade deficit for the year was

$118.5 billion. A sharp decline in the gold imports helped narrow India’s trade deficit to a

record low, as merchandise imports contracted faster than exports in March amid tepid

global demand.

TOP ECONOMY NEWS

The Union Civil Aviation Ministry has dropped the proposal to auction unused bilateral

traffic rights on international routes, as per the draft National Civil Aviation Policy.

The Department of Telecommunications is likely to get around 202 megahertz spectrumin the 1,800 MHz band due to harmonization of airwaves by early next month.

Major global oil producing countries failed to reach an agreement over a proposal to

freeze oil production at the end of their ministerial meeting in Doha on Sunday amid

differences over the wording of the pact.

The Union Cabinet is likely to approve a standard bid document for ultra mega power


11/19

projects based on domestic coal by next month.

Despite the recent spike in global crude oil prices, the Government is unlikely to review

the excise duty on petrol and diesel in the near term.

Worldwide PC shipments plunged 9.6% during January-March - sixth straight quarterly

fall - to 64.8 million units on lower adoption in new households, especially in emerging

markets.

UP tops infrastructure projects under PPP mode.

R eserve Bank had submitted a list of individuals and companies which had defaulted on

bank loans of over Rs. 5 billion to the apex court.

The Centre and the States will now get to access loan funds from the National Small

Savings Fund at much lower cost.

India's fuel demand surged to its highest level in at least 15 years in the fiscal year ended

March, driven by growing appetite for gasoline-guzzling vehicles and a boost in mining

and manufacturing activity.

General insurance industry has missed the ambitious target of crossing the Rs 1 trillion

mark in premium collection by a small margin at Rs 964 billion, up almost 14 per cent in

the just concluded fiscal.

Global banking regulators' body BIS has proposed a uniform definition for non-

performing assets and forbearance to ensure consistency in disclosures.

Telecom companies will have to pay service tax along with instalments as part of the

deferred payment option under the existing spectrum auction system, the Revenue

Department said.

Wholesale Price Index based inflation for March came in at -0.85%, a further contraction

on the previous month's level of -0.91%.

EPFO puts on hold new PF withdrawal norms till July 31.


12/19

India Inc's business optimism index remained stable for the April-June quarter of this

year, thanks to a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India and the government's recent policy

reforms, a Dun & Bradstreet report says.

Improvement in mining and electricity Index of Industrial Production for February 2016,

could be hinting at rebound in industrial activity in the country. Sector experts suggest

coupled with other indexes; this is silver lining for the industrial growth.

India's trade deficit narrowed for the third straight month in March to $5.07 billion, the

lowest in five years, as imports shrank at a faster pace than exports, data showed on

Monday.

With Indian agriculture remaining a worrisome sector and services doing rather well, it

is manufacturing that can create the quantum of jobs needed to accommodate urban

migration and help the country grow faster, Finance Minister has said.

Odisha lists 12 mineral blocks for auctions.

Exports during March, 2016 were valued at USD22.2bn which was -5.5% than the level

of USD24.0bn during March, 2015. Imports during March, 2016 were valued at

USD27.8bn which was -21.6% of imports valued at USD35.4bn in March, 2015.

The central government has set up a committee to examine the Punjab government’s

claim of Rs200bn in food grain dues.

After over three years of making 5% of ethanol blending with petrol mandatory, India is

set to achieve this target for the first time during the current sugarcane crushing seasoni.e. by the end of September 2016.

India has replaced China as top global destination for foreign direct investment by

attracting US$63 billion worth projects in 2015, says a report.


13/19

TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

Maruti Suzuki Limited is planning to post yet another year of double-digit growth, with

forecast of good monsoon.

Indian Oil Corp and Bangladesh Petroleum Corp have entered into joint venture projects

to leverage the expertise of the companies and the geographic advantages of the two

nations.

Drug major Cipla Limited said its arm Cipla Health has completed allocation of shares

to FIL Capital Investments II Ltd.

Reliance Industries , BG to hand over some Indian drilling assets to ONGC.

Solar power tariff remained below Rs 5 per unit in the latest auction conducted by NTPC

Limited for 500 MW capacity at Pavagada Solar Park in Tumkur, Karnataka.

Having launched its electric car 'e2o' in the UK, Mahindra & Mahindra is keen to drive

into other advanced European markets including Sweden and Norway as part of its

business expansion plans for this new vehicle segment.

ITC Limited will soon resume production at its factories, the company said in a

statement, two weeks after it decided to shutter its plants over the government's stringent

new packaging rules.

GAIL India will deploy drones on pilot basis on its main trunk pipeline as part of higher

safety measures it is implementing to secure its vast network.

Jaiprakash Associates and Jaypee Infra are offering land parcels of around 2,200 acres

to banks in a bid to buy peace with lenders and settle most of its loans.

Suzlon acquire five firms to execute the renewable energy projects.

Apollo Hospitals is planning to invest close to Rs6bn to raise its bedcount across the

country to 9,000 by the end of FY17 from the current 8,400 directly owned by Apollo.

Alembic Pharmaceuticals has received four observations from the US health regulator


14/19

after the inspection of Panelav facility.

BEML Limited has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Dredging Corporation

of India Limited for indigenous design, development and manufacture of spares for

dredgers.

JK Tyre & Industries has completed the acquisition of Cavendish Industries Ltd , which

houses three tyre business undertakings of Birla Tyres at a value of Rs. 22 billion.

Inox Wind Ltd has bagged two orders for a cumulative capacity of 100 MW from

country's one of the leading renewable energy independent power producers.

Reliance Industries plans to shut a crude unit from May 1 for three weeks of

maintenance.

Lupin Limited has launched its generic norethindrone acetate and ethinyl estradiol

tablets, used for the prevention of postmenopausal osteoporosis, in the US market.

In a move to compete against cheaper high grade South African, Indonesian and

Australian coal while keeping its prices unchanged, Coal India Limited has recently

strategised a move whereby it is giving up part of its charges levied previously on the

consumers.

Suzlon Limited acquires five firms to execute renewable energy projects.

Wipro Limited announced a share buyback of 40 million shares or 1.62% of the shares

amounting to Rs 25 billion at Rs. 625/share.

Bharti Airtel will sell more than 5% stake in its tower arm Bharti Infratel through an

open market block deal.

Nestle's Maggi now hold more than 50% market share, first time since May 2015.

GenNext Hub, a Reliance Industries Ltd-backed startup program, entered into a

partnership with Invest Ottawa to create a bridge to engage innovative startups from India

and Canada.


15/19

Alkem Laboratories Limited gets a regulatory rap in Europe over the reliability of data

from some of its clinical studies.

Bharti Airtel commercially launched fourth generation or 4G services in Karnataka's

Shimoga region, taking the number of its 4G towns in the state to 110.

The Odisha government has issued the letter of intent to Essar Steel after it emerged as

the preferred bidder in the first iron ore block offered for e-auctions in Odisha.

The UK strips division management of Tata Steel Ltd. headed by director Stuart Wilkie

has expressed interest in buyout of the entire 6.5mt capacity in the region by infusing

funds in personal capacity.

TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

Oriental Bank of Commerce said it will raise over Rs 1.78 billion by issuing shares to

LIC on a preferential basis.

ICICI Bank has increased its stake in the debt-laden IVRCL Limited to 11.43% by

acquiring a fresh 39.91mn shares amounting to 7.3% of the equity share capital of the

company.

State Bank of India has been asked by the central bank to provide for losses on food

grain-related loans issued to the Punjab government.

To bring down interest rates faster, State Bank of India plans to tap the wholesale bond

market and change its mix of resources. The bank will also revalue its real estate assets,

which will add over Rs 9,000 crore to its capital base and enable it to grow its loan book

by up to14% without diluting its equity.

Private sector lender RBL Bank today launched an exclusive branch for startups. RBL

will be the first private sector Bank to open a specialised branch for startups, offering a

bouquet of banking products to service the end-to-end needs of the emerging

entrepreneurial ecosystem.

R BI eased the pressure on banks by pruning the list of companies whose loans need to be

provided for against the risk of default, said three people with knowledge of the


16/19

matter.The immediate outcome of the latest decision will be better than-anticipated

results at banks in the quarter just ended, especially state-owned ones that have heavy

exposure to highly indebted corporate houses.

The Reserve Bank of India has rejected the demand of banks to defer its provisioning

directive on the Punjab food grain funding row. The RBI had ordered lenders to mark a

substantial chunk of loans extended to Punjab as potential non-performing assets after it

came to light that the food grain stocks in the government warehouses were probably not

adequate to cover the loan amount. The banks were told to set aside funds against

potential defaults.

State-run Bank of Maharashtra sees its gross non-performing assets or bad loans to be

about 8 per cent of gross advances in 2015-16, a top official said. Bank of Maharashtra's

gross NPAs were at 7.97 per cent of gross advances during the third quarter (October-

December) of 2015-16 financial year.


17/19

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browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.


18/19

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19/19

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Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 25 April 2016

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