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Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Plantation Sector: 2018: The Year of Indifference (Neutral) We initiate coverage on the plantation sector with a neutral call. We forecast a higher stock-to-use ratio of 18.5% (vs. 16.6% in FY17) despite stronger consumption with higher expected imports by India and China. However, higher production from continued yield recovery could counter the positive impact of stronger demand. We assume CPO prices of MYR2,800/ton and MYR2,700/ton in FY17 and FY18 respectively. (35 pages report) To see the full version of this report, please click here MARKET NEWS Macroeconomy Bank Indonesia estimates deflation in September 2017 Sector Property: secondary market to indicate improvement Plantation: Malaysia’s palm oil shipment indication rose 10.4% MoM in Sep-17 Corporate Adhi Persada Gedung: The IPO is being postpone to 2H18 Alam Sutera has sold 4,700units property in Suvarna Sutera since its first launching Bumi Serpong Damai: joint with Mitsubishi to develop projects Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro Coco Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new contract IDR2.1tn Pembangunan Perumahan: 8M17 net income grew 58%yoy KEY INDEX Close Chg Ytd Vol (%) (%) (US$ m) Asean - 5 Indonesia 5,901 1.0 11.4 491 Thailand 1,673 0.4 8.4 1,711 Philippines 8,171 0.2 19.5 169 Malaysia 1,756 (0.1) 6.9 519 Singapore 3,220 (0.2) 11.8 958 Regional China 3,349 0.3 7.9 39,181 Hong Kong 27,554 0.5 25.2 9,460 Japan 20,356 (0.0) 6.5 13,350 Korea 2,394 0.9 18.2 4,114 Taiwan 10,384 0.5 12.2 1,786 India 31,284 0.0 17.5 501 NASDAQ 6,496 0.7 20.7 90,115 Dow Jones 22,405 0.1 13.4 8,930 CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE Rate w-w m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,472 (1.2) (1.0) 0.0 SBI rate % 5.90 - - (1.3) 10y Gov Indo bond 6.50 0.1 (0.3) (1.5) HARD COMMODITY Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Coal US$/ton 95 (0.4) (2.2) 7.4 Gold US$/toz 1,277 (0.2) (3.6) 10.8 Nickel US$/mt.ton 10,416 0.6 (10.6) 4.5 Tin US$/mt.ton 20,845 0.5 1.6 (1.7) SOFT COMMODITY Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,000 (1.4) (0.7) (6.9) Corn US$/mt.ton 122 0.7 2.3 (5.8) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 52 (0.1) 9.1 (3.9) Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 57 (0.2) 7.5 (0.2) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,714 (0.9) 0.1 (15.2) Rubber USd/kg 147 2.2 (4.9) (24.1) Pulp US$/tonne 906 N/A 1.7 12.0 Coffee US$/60kgbag 123 0.2 (3.7) (19.2) Sugar US$/MT 362 1.0 (4.2) (30.9) Wheat US$/ton 122 (1.5) 4.3 (3.6)
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Page 1: Equity SNAPSHOT - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20171002.pdf · Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro Coco Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new

Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Plantation Sector: 2018: The Year of Indifference (Neutral)

We initiate coverage on the plantation sector with a neutral call. We

forecast a higher stock-to-use ratio of 18.5% (vs. 16.6% in FY17)

despite stronger consumption with higher expected imports by India and China. However, higher production from continued yield

recovery could counter the positive impact of stronger demand. We assume CPO prices of MYR2,800/ton and MYR2,700/ton in FY17 and

FY18 respectively. (35 pages report)

To see the full version of this report, please click here

MARKET NEWS

Macroeconomy

▪ Bank Indonesia estimates deflation in September 2017 Sector

▪ Property: secondary market to indicate improvement ▪ Plantation: Malaysia’s palm oil shipment indication rose 10.4%

MoM in Sep-17 Corporate

▪ Adhi Persada Gedung: The IPO is being postpone to 2H18

▪ Alam Sutera has sold 4,700units property in Suvarna Sutera since its first launching

▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: joint with Mitsubishi to develop projects ▪ Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro

Coco

▪ Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new contract IDR2.1tn ▪ Pembangunan Perumahan: 8M17 net income grew 58%yoy

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 5,901 1.0 11.4 491

Thailand 1,673 0.4 8.4 1,711

Philippines 8,171 0.2 19.5 169

Malaysia 1,756 (0.1) 6.9 519

Singapore 3,220 (0.2) 11.8 958

Regional

China 3,349 0.3 7.9 39,181

Hong Kong 27,554 0.5 25.2 9,460

Japan 20,356 (0.0) 6.5 13,350

Korea 2,394 0.9 18.2 4,114

Taiwan 10,384 0.5 12.2 1,786

India 31,284 0.0 17.5 501

NASDAQ 6,496 0.7 20.7 90,115

Dow Jones 22,405 0.1 13.4 8,930

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,472 (1.2) (1.0) 0.0

SBI rate % 5.90 - - (1.3)

10y Gov Indo bond 6.50 0.1 (0.3) (1.5)

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 95 (0.4) (2.2) 7.4

Gold US$/toz 1,277 (0.2) (3.6) 10.8

Nickel US$/mt.ton 10,416 0.6 (10.6) 4.5

Tin US$/mt.ton 20,845 0.5 1.6 (1.7)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,000 (1.4) (0.7) (6.9)

Corn US$/mt.ton 122 0.7 2.3 (5.8)

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 52 (0.1) 9.1 (3.9)

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 57 (0.2) 7.5 (0.2)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,714 (0.9) 0.1 (15.2)

Rubber USd/kg 147 2.2 (4.9) (24.1)

Pulp US$/tonne 906 N/A 1.7 12.0

Coffee US$/60kgbag 123 0.2 (3.7) (19.2)

Sugar US$/MT 362 1.0 (4.2) (30.9)

Wheat US$/ton 122 (1.5) 4.3 (3.6)

Source: Bloomberg

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Equity Research Plantation

See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.com

Monday, 02 October 2017

Plantation Sector NEUTRAL

2018: The Year of Indifference

We initiate coverage on the plantation sector with a neutral call. We forecast a higher stock-to-use ratio of 18.5% (vs. 16.6% in FY17) despite stronger consumption with higher expected imports by India and China. However, higher production from continued yield recovery could counter the positive impact of stronger demand. We assume CPO prices of MYR2,800/ton and MYR2,700/ton in FY17 and FY18 respectively. A better picture on supply and demand. We are neutral on the plantation sector as we think the impact of higher consumption will be offset by higher production in FY18. Based on Oilworld estimates, global palm oil consumption is expected to reach 66.9mn tons (+5.0% YoY), while global palm oil production is predicted to grow to 68.8mn tons (+4.3% YoY), putting the global palm oil stock-to-use ratio at 18.5% or up from 16.6% in FY17. As the yield has yet to fully normalize, we expect further yield recovery in FY18 following the impact of El Nino. Potentially higher imports by China and India. We expect India and China to be key drivers of palm oil demand in FY18. India may import more palm oil on the poor oilseeds production outlook and the lower acreage in the FY17 planting season. Based on the latest oilseed crop sowing data as of 22-Sep-17, India’s oilseed planted area reached 17.3mn Ha, or 9% lower on a YoY comparison. Moreover, China may also increase its palm oil imports given the tight global rapeseed supply and below average palm oil inventory level at 0.36mn tons (vs. 0.72mn tons average). Indonesia’s biodiesel absorption is likely to stay flat in FY18. We estimate that Indonesia’s biodiesel absorption will remain at the same level as in FY17 or between the range of 3.0-3.5mn KL, translating into CPO demand of 2.6-3.0mn tons. While compliance in the PSO sector has matured, we think non-compliance in the non-PSO sector is likely to persist into FY18. We are skeptical that the matter regarding the subsidy disbursement scheme for non-PSO will be resolved anytime soon. Further downside may arise if the government turns to the Indonesia Estate Crop Fund to seek a source of funding for infrastructure projects. Earnings expectations mostly reflected in the share prices. We expect plantation companies under our coverage to book slightly higher earnings in FY18 as increasing volumes will offset the slight price declines. The cost of production is also expected to remain stable. We think the current share prices have mostly priced in the CPO price of MYR2,700-2,800/ton. Initiate coverage with a neutral call. We initiate coverage on the sector with a neutral call, with LSIP as our top pick given its undemanding valuation, strong balance sheet and good stock liquidity. Due to the cyclical nature of the sector, we think LSIP will be the best play to monetize short-term volatility in CPO prices. We assume a CPO price of MYR2,800/ton and MYR2,700/ton in FY17 and FY18, respectively. Overall, we have a slightly better earnings outlook for plantation companies as we expect higher volumes to offset the slight price declines.

JAKAGRI relative to JCI In

dex

Source : Bloomberg

Malaysia inventory vs. CPO price

Source : Bloomberg

Soyoil-CPO price spread

Source : Bloomberg

Yudha Gautama (62-21) 2955 5888 ext. 3509 [email protected]

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7Jakagri Index (LHS) Relative to JCI Index (RHS)

Target

Price Market

Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2016A

Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ HOLD 16,300 28,677.9 14.2 14.0 1.5 1.4 14.1 London Sumatra LSIP IJ BUY 1,830 9,582.0 11.7 11.5 1.2 1.1 7.9 Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 2,320 4,237.4 15.3 14.4 1.2 1.1 13.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

Se

p-1

6

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7Jakagri Index (LHS) Relative to JCI Index (RHS)

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Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

MACROECONOMY Bank Indonesia estimates deflation in September 2017

Bank Indonesia estimates deflation of 0.01%mom in September 2017. This is attributable to lower food prices, including chicken (-5.03%mom), beef, eggs, red onion (-8.77%mom), chili -(13.9%mom). (Kontan)

SECTOR

Property: secondary market to indicate improvement

Indonesia Property Watch stated that price secondary market has started to improve in 3Q17. The large-size house segment recorded 0.61%qoq price improvement, meanwhile, mid-sized houses recorded 0.57%qoq price

improvement and small-size houses recorded 0.49%qoq price appreciation. Despite the small increases, this price appreciation has indicated positive sign considering the price has been flattish in the past one years. (Bisnis

Indonesia)

2Q17 3Q17

Central Jakarta 0.44%qoq 0.75%qoq

West Jakarta 0.69%qoq

South Jakarta 0.51%qoq

North Jakarta 0.49%qoq 0.45%qoq

East Jakarta 0.37%qoq

Plantation: Malaysia’s palm oil shipment indication rose 10.4% MoM in Sep-17

According to Intertek Testing Services, Malaysia’a palm oil shipment rose 10.4% MoM to 1.37mn tons during the

full month of September. (Bloomberg)

CORPORATE Adhi Persada Gedung: The IPO is being postpone to 2H18

The IPO of Adhi Persada Gedung (APG), a subsidiary of Adhi Karya (ADHI), is being postponed to 2H18 from the

initial plans in 1H18. This is due to company’s plan to use audited FY17 financial report as the base of the performance. Most of the IPO proceeds to dedicated for the development of TOD projects. APG is looking for

IDR1.5tn – IDR2.0tn of funds coming in from the IPO for the selling of 30% stake to public. Furthermore, ADHI booked new contracts of IDR28.6tn as of Aug 2017. This is including IDR19.7tn of Jakarta LRT project. (Bisnis

Indonesia)

Alam Sutera has sold 4,700units property in Suvarna Sutera since its first launching

Alam Sutera (ASRI) has sold 4,700 units of landed residential, land plots, and shop houses in Suvarna Sutera township since its first launching in 2013. This equivalent to marketing sales of IDR5.3tn. This year, ASRI aims to

obtain marketing sales of IDR600bn from the Suvarna Sutera township. Up to August 2017, ASRI has obtained marketing sales of IDR500bn. Last April 2017, ASRI launched Chiara cluster in Suvarna Sutera area. Besides, ASRI

plans to develop St. Laurensia school in 4.5ha area. (Kontan)

Bumi Serpong Damai: joint with Mitsubishi to develop projects

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE) will join with Mitsubishi consortium (Mitsubishi Corporation, JOIN, Hanshin Electric Railway Corporation, Nishi-Nippon Railroad corporation, and Keikyu Corporation) to develop mixed use projects

consisting of 1,000 units of landed residential and shop houses in BSDE in 19ha land bank. BSDE and Mitsubishi will establish joint venture named BSD Diamond Development. The investment value for the projects is estimated to

reach USD260mn. (Kontan)

Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro Coco

Kalbe Farma targets higher Hydro Coco’ export volume of 10% from 5% last year, to achieve 55-60mn packs sales volume this year. To support further sales volume growth, the company seeks new suppliers for coconut

water from East Java, North Sulawesi, North Maluku. At present, the company obtains coconut water supply from

plantations in Riau – under Sambu Group. (Bisnis Indonesia)

MARKET NEWS

Page 4: Equity SNAPSHOT - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20171002.pdf · Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro Coco Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new

Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new contract IDR2.1tn

Nusa Raya Cipta (NRCA) has obtained new contract of IDR2.1tn in August 2017, down by 25.3%yoy (achievement

in August 2016 reached IDR2.81tn). This achievement is equivalent to 64% of the targeted new contract this year amounted to IDR3.3tn. This new contract is supported by several projects, including (i) Synthesis worth IDR365bn,

(ii) Mayapada hospitals worth IDR227bn, (iii) Silktown apartment worth IDR200bn, (iv) Mesuji sugar factory worth IDR150bn, (v) Dragon resort Labuan Bajo worth IDR215bn. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Pembangunan Perumahan: 8M17 net income grew 58%yoy Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) booked 8M17 net income of IDR836bn, grew by 58%yoy from IDR530bn in

8M16. Revenues as of Aug 17 grew by 19%yoy to IDR11.5tn (8M16: IDR9.7tn). PTPP’s gearing as of Aug 17 stood at 0.66x and net gearing at 0.18x. New contracts as of Aug 18 reached IDR31.9tn increased 40.5%yoy from

IDr22.7tn in Aug 17. This is accounted for 78.6% of the full year target of IDR40.6tn. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Page 5: Equity SNAPSHOT - Danareksadmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning pack 20171002.pdf · Kalbe Farma: KLBF targets higher export volume from Hydro Coco Nusa Raya Cipta obtained new

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

DANAREKSA VALUATION GUIDE

Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018

Danareksa Universe 3,650,197 192,959 220,169 233.4 266.3 17.3% 14.1% 18.9 16.6 20.6 18.5 2.9 2.6 15.9 16.4

Auto 319,820 18,975 22,003 381.6 442.5 25.2% 16.0% 16.9 14.5 12.3 10.3 2.1 1.9 12.8 13.4

Astra International HOLD 7,900 9,000 319,820 18,975 22,003 469 544 449 531 25.2% 16.0% 16.9 14.5 12.3 10.3 2.1 1.9 12.8 13.4

Banks 1,362,510 89,107 104,234 711.5 832.3 19.5% 17.0% 15.3 13.1 2.3 2.1 16.2 16.8

BCA BUY 20,300 19,450 500,497 22,682 25,017 920 1,015 920 1,015 10.1% 10.3% 22.1 20.0 N/A N/A 3.9 3.4 18.8 18.0

BNI HOLD 7,400 6,700 138,000 14,049 16,825 753 902 753 902 23.9% 19.8% 9.8 8.2 N/A N/A 1.4 1.2 15.0 15.6

BRI BUY 15,275 15,000 376,821 30,046 33,756 1,218 1,368 1,218 1,368 14.7% 12.3% 12.5 11.2 N/A N/A 2.2 2.0 19.1 18.8

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 3,150 2,400 33,359 2,941 3,120 278 295 278 295 12.3% 6.1% 11.3 10.7 N/A N/A 1.6 1.4 14.6 14.0

Bank Mandiri HOLD 6,725 11,800 313,833 19,390 25,515 831 1,094 831 1,094 40.4% 31.6% 8.1 6.1 N/A N/A 1.9 1.7 12.4 14.9

Cement 163,295 5,911 6,125 303 314 -18.6% 3.6% 27.6 26.7 14.7 13.9 2.6 2.5 9.7 9.6

Indocement SELL 18,900 13,000 69,575 2,514 2,484 683 675 677 669 -35.1% -1.2% 27.7 28.0 15.2 15.2 2.6 2.5 9.5 9.1

Semen Indonesia HOLD 10,125 8,600 60,057 3,209 3,458 541 583 513 554 2.3% 7.8% 18.7 17.4 10.3 9.4 1.9 1.7 10.2 10.4

Semen Baturaja SELL 3,400 390 33,663 188 182 19 19 19 18 -27.3% -3.3% 177.5 183.7 72.3 68.8 10.3 9.9 5.9 5.5

Cigarettes 575,593 19,836 21,451 168 181 2.0% 8.1% 29.0 26.8 20.0 18.4 7.6 6.9 26.5 27.0

Gudang Garam HOLD 65,800 75,100 126,605 7,159 7,871 3,721 4,091 3,721 4,091 7.2% 9.9% 17.7 16.1 11.3 10.4 3.0 2.7 17.6 17.7

HM Sampoerna BUY 3,860 4,100 448,988 12,677 13,581 109 117 109 117 -0.7% 7.1% 35.4 33.1 26.6 24.3 13.1 12.7 37.0 38.9

Construction 116,390 8,554 10,351 115 139 29.9% 21.0% 13.6 11.2 9.2 7.5 1.9 1.7 14.7 15.6

Wijaya Karya BUY 1,790 2,800 16,056 1,225 1,783 137 199 137 199 21.0% 45.5% 13.1 9.0 4.4 3.2 1.3 1.2 10.4 13.7

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 2,310 5,700 14,322 1,295 1,570 209 253 233 283 33.9% 21.2% 11.1 9.1 5.4 4.5 2.3 1.9 22.5 22.6

Adhi Karya BUY 2,000 2,700 7,122 451 619 127 174 149 187 43.9% 37.3% 15.8 11.5 8.6 7.1 1.2 1.0 7.8 9.2

Waskita Karya BUY 1,775 2,800 24,094 2,383 3,034 176 224 176 224 39.1% 27.4% 10.1 7.9 10.5 8.7 1.9 1.6 19.8 21.5

Waskita Beton BUY 360 630 9,490 1,104 1,319 42 50 42 50 73.9% 19.5% 8.6 7.2 8.6 4.2 1.2 1.0 14.2 15.2

Wika Beton BUY 535 1,100 4,663 349 420 42 50 42 50 28.3% 20.2% 12.8 10.6 8.3 7.0 1.7 1.6 13.7 14.8

Jasa Marga BUY 5,600 6,300 40,644 1,747 1,606 257 236 261 240 4.4% -8.1% 21.8 23.7 12.9 11.7 3.1 2.8 14.0 11.6

Consumer 595,628 17,265 19,547 333 377 10.2% 13.2% 34.5 30.5 23.3 20.6 9.0 8.1 27.6 28.0

Indofood CBP BUY 8,725 9,700 101,750 3,857 4,351 331 373 331 373 7.1% 12.8% 26.4 23.4 16.4 14.7 5.2 4.6 20.7 20.9

Indofood HOLD 8,425 8,650 73,975 4,506 5,098 517 580 512 569 9.2% 12.2% 16.3 14.5 13.3 11.7 2.4 2.2 14.9 15.5

Unilever HOLD 48,975 52,000 373,679 7,324 8,326 960 1,091 960 1,091 14.6% 13.7% 51.0 44.9 35.7 31.6 66.3 56.3 141.6 135.6

Kino Indonesia BUY 1,680 2,300 2,400 199 215 140 151 140 151 10.1% 8.0% 12.0 11.1 7.1 6.4 1.1 1.1 9.9 9.9

Mayora Indah HOLD 1,960 1,960 43,823 1,378 1,556 62 70 62 72 1.7% 12.9% 31.8 28.2 16.4 14.6 6.2 5.3 20.9 20.3

Healthcare 93,265 2,773 3,089 105 118 8.1% 11.9% 33.6 30.2 27.0 24.0 5.9 5.2 18.5 18.3

Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,665 1,750 78,047 2,484 2,763 53 59 53 59 8.0% 11.2% 31.4 28.2 26.1 23.4 5.8 5.2 19.7 19.4

Kimia Farma SELL 2,740 1,510 15,218 289 326 52 59 52 59 8.1% 12.7% 52.6 46.7 31.7 27.3 6.2 5.6 12.4 12.6

Heavy Equipment 119,364 6,873 7,645 1,843 2,049 37.4% 11.2% 17.4 15.6 7.6 6.5 2.7 2.5 16.7 16.7

United Tractors BUY 32,000 35,300 119,364 6,873 7,645 1,843 2,049 1,843 2,049 37.4% 11.2% 17.4 15.6 7.6 6.5 2.7 2.5 16.7 16.7

Mining 158,304 11,073 12,401 139 156 41.4% 12.0% 14.3 12.8 5.3 4.9 1.3 1.3 9.4 10.2

Adaro Energy BUY 1,825 2,000 58,374 4,963 5,165 155 161 155 161 10.7% 4.1% 11.8 11.3 3.9 3.6 1.3 1.3 11.6 11.8

Timah BUY 815 1,000 6,070 313 334 42 45 42 45 24.3% 6.7% 19.4 18.2 7.0 6.8 1.0 1.0 5.4 5.5

Vale Indonesia HOLD 2,590 2,600 25,735 380 540 38 54 38 54 1412.0% 42.0% 67.7 47.6 9.2 8.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.3

Aneka Tambang HOLD 640 900 15,380 (147) 207 (6) 9 (6) 9 -52.0% -240.6% (104.4) 74.2 18.9 16.8 0.9 0.8 (0.8) 1.2

Bukit Asam BUY 10,450 14,500 24,078 2,498 3,004 1,149 1,382 1,149 1,382 72.7% 20.3% 9.1 7.6 6.1 5.2 2.0 1.7 22.9 23.2

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 20,250 17,000 22,881 2,536 2,534 2,244 2,243 2,323 2,321 44.8% -0.1% 9.0 9.0 3.7 3.7 1.8 1.7 20.2 19.2

Harum Energy HOLD 2,140 2,200 5,786 530 617 196 228 196 228 196.4% 16.3% 10.9 9.4 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.3 13.4 14.7

Poultry 61,448 4,623 5,608 31 37 1.1% 21.3% 13.3 11.0 8.2 7.0 2.1 1.8 17.2 17.8

Charoen Pokphand BUY 2,740 3,100 44,931 2,982 3,550 182 216 182 216 34.3% 19.0% 15.1 12.7 9.3 8.0 2.7 2.3 19.3 19.4

Japfa Comfeed BUY 1,270 1,650 14,491 1,463 1,811 128 159 128 159 -29.2% 23.8% 9.9 8.0 6.3 5.4 1.4 1.2 15.4 16.4

Malindo Feedmill BUY 905 1,050 2,026 178 247 80 110 80 110 -38.5% 38.4% 11.4 8.2 6.7 6.1 1.0 0.9 9.3 11.5

Property 108,416 7,171 6,745 60 56 39.3% -5.9% 15.1 16.1 10.7 11.3 1.8 1.6 12.2 10.4

Alam Sutera HOLD 378 380 7,427 1,129 1,026 57 52 56 59 121.9% -9.2% 6.6 7.2 8.7 9.6 0.9 0.8 14.9 12.1

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,770 2,200 34,067 3,115 1,947 162 101 203 137 73.4% -37.5% 10.9 17.5 8.6 12.1 1.4 1.4 14.1 8.0

Ciputra Development HOLD 1,195 1,070 22,180 947 1,302 51 70 38 58 -8.6% 37.4% 23.4 17.0 12.8 11.0 1.6 1.5 7.1 9.1

Pakuw on Jati BUY 610 700 29,377 1,707 2,146 35 45 37 44 2.2% 25.7% 17.2 13.7 12.0 10.3 2.9 2.5 18.2 19.5

Summarecon SELL 1,065 900 15,365 272 325 19 23 28 27 -12.8% 19.7% 56.6 47.3 13.6 13.7 2.4 2.3 4.3 4.9

Retail 69,430 3,573 4,059 104 119 10.4% 13.6% 19.4 17.1 10.4 9.4 4.6 4.1 24.5 25.3

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 7,000 8,100 11,620 347 509 210 308 210 308 66.5% 46.8% 33.4 22.7 8.2 7.0 3.6 3.6 10.7 15.6

Ramayana BUY 900 1,130 6,386 431 462 67 70 67 70 10.9% 4.9% 13.5 12.9 9.6 8.6 1.8 1.6 12.5 12.4

Matahari Department Store SELL 9,275 12,000 27,064 2,098 2,265 719 777 719 777 4.0% 7.9% 12.9 11.9 8.6 7.7 10.7 8.1 95.6 77.1

Matahari Putra Prima SELL 655 450 3,523 109 112 17 17 17 17 183.4% 2.7% 39.2 38.1 5.5 5.5 1.4 1.4 4.4 4.5

Ace Hardw are HOLD 1,215 1,050 20,837 588 711 43 47 43 47 3.2% 9.3% 28.3 25.9 26.4 25.1 6.1 5.5 18.2 19.7

Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 830 1,100 2,407 303 339 105 117 105 117 14.9% 11.8% 7.9 7.1 4.1 3.3 0.7 0.6 8.6 9.0

PER (x)

Equity

Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)

Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

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Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

LEADERS Price as on Code 29-Sep-17 28-Sep-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Semen Baturaja SMBR 3,400 2,980 14.1 16.8 12.6 21.9 SELL

Bukit Asam PTBA 10,450 10,000 4.5 1.7 (15.6) (16.4) BUY

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 20,250 19,450 4.1 2.5 4.1 20.0 HOLD

Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 15,275 14,700 3.9 (2.6) 1.0 30.8 BUY

Adaro Energy ADRO 1,825 1,765 3.4 0.6 - 7.7 BUY

Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 3,150 3,060 2.9 (3.4) 4.7 81.0 BUY

Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 7,000 6,800 2.9 1.4 - 29.6 BUY

Vale Indonesia INCO 2,590 2,520 2.8 (0.4) (12.8) (8.2) HOLD

Astra International ASII 7,900 7,700 2.6 1.6 0.3 (4.5) HOLD

Bank Central Asia BBCA 20,300 19,825 2.4 2.1 7.1 31.0 BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on Code 29-Sep-17 28-Sep-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Wika Beton WTON 535 550 (2.7) (6.1) (5.3) (35.2) BUY

Kino Indonesia KINO 1,680 1,720 (2.3) (2.3) (5.1) (44.6) BUY

Waskita Karya WSKT 1,775 1,800 (1.4) (5.8) (20.0) (30.4) BUY

Matahari Department Store LPPF 9,275 9,400 (1.3) (5.8) (7.3) (38.7) SELL

HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,860 3,900 (1.0) (0.5) 6.0 0.8 BUY

Indocement INTP 18,900 19,050 (0.8) 0.7 (4.5) 22.7 SELL

Alam Sutera ASRI 378 380 (0.5) (4.5) 5.6 7.4 HOLD

Harum Energy HRUM 2,140 2,150 (0.5) (1.8) (7.8) - HOLD

Unilever UNVR 48,975 49,200 (0.5) (2.1) (3.1) 26.2 HOLD

Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,665 1,670 (0.3) (4.3) (2.6) 9.9 HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

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Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

PREVIOUS REPORTS

▪ BRPT: Heating Up Snapshot20170929 ▪ WIIM: Better times ahead Snapshot20170928

▪ Poultry: Run, chicken…run! Snapshot20170927 ▪ KINO: Better days ahead, UNTR: Continuation sturdy Komatsu sales volume Snapshot20170926

▪ SMRA: New residential project launch disappoints Snapshot20170925

▪ Automotive: Strong car sales in August 2017 Snapshot20170922 ▪ Wijaya Karya: 1H17 earnings up 70%yoy Snapshot20170920

▪ Waskita Karya: Further options for toll roads divestment Snapshot20170919 ▪ MAPI: A solid play, Bukit Asam: The capping of domestic coal prices for power plants will limit PTBA’s profitability

Snapshot20170914

▪ Automotive: Strong motorcycle sales in August 2017, BSDE: Minimal impact from tower deal, Property: Buyers remain selective in a tough market, Cement: Strong sales volume in August 2017, Ace Hardware Indonesia: August

2017 revenues up by 12.3% yoy Snapshot20170913 ▪ Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Time to dive in, PLANTATIONS: Aug-17 Malaysia Palm Oil Statistics Snapshot20170912

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Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Adeline Solaiman

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3503 Retail

PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

Novrita E. Putrianti

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3128

Ehrliech Suhartono

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3132

Maria Renata

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction

Lucky Bayu Purnomo

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst

Laksmita Armandani

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3125

Antonia Febe Hartono, CFA

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property

Tuty Sutopo

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3121

Upik Yuzarni

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3137

Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3139

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal, Cement

Natalia Sutanto

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property

Yudha Gautama

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3509 Plantation

Helmy Kristanto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3500 Head of Research, Strategy

Eka Savitri

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Banking

Ignatius Teguh Prayoga

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. Research Associate

Rendy Ben Philips

[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3139

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Equity SNAPSHOT Monday, October 02, 2017

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

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