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ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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OVERVIEW OF 2013-2015 BUSINESS STRATEGY 19 DECEMBER 2012
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Page 1: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

OVERVIEW OF 2013-2015 BUSINESS STRATEGY19 DECEMBER 2012

Page 2: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

2

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.There can be no assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

Page 3: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

3

AGENDA

Alessandro Garrone (EVP):

- Introduction: Achievements & Governance

Luca Bettonte (CEO):

- Business Plan 2013-2015

Page 4: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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INTRODUCTION: ACHIEVEMENTS & GOVERNANCE

EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT

ALESSANDRO GARRONE

Page 5: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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2008-2012: EXECUTION IN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT

• Significant reduction of refining exposure

• Development of critical mass in Marketing

• Wind business growth through a mix of organic and acquisitions

• Delisting of ERG Renew

• Financial optimisation

• ISAB Refinery 100% controlled

• 7% Retail market share

• ERG Renew ≃0.2 GW

• EBITDA ≃€20mn

• Electricity produced byISAB Energy / CTE

• Presence in gas logistics / trading projects and retail power

• 20% in ISAB, with put optionto fully exit

• Rome refinery closure; transformation into a logistic hub ongoing

• TotalErg + EOS: 12% combined market share

• ERG Renew ≃0.6 GW

• 3rd wind player in Italy

• EBITDA ≃€130mn

• 1GW installed capacity: 480W CCGT and 528MW CIP6

• Best-in-class profitability

2008 2012

Renewables

Power

Refining & Marketing

• Reconstruction of one train of ISAB Energy plant after 2008 accident

• Start-up of CCGT power plant (2010)

• Exit from Power Retail and 2TWh PPA with Iren

• Exit from Ionio Gas and Rivara Storage projects

Page 6: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

6

2008-2012 PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING

CORPORATE

Ebitda and Net Income: Evolution (€ mn) Invested Capital

38%

34%

28%

20%

32%

48%

RENEWABLES POWER REFINING & MARKETING

Financial and Economic Crisis

Refining Golden Age

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 540

92

2008 2012 FCST2009 2011

284

>420

239

2010

305

84

(80)(20) (49)

2008 (€2.2bn)

2012 FCST (€2.8bn)

NET INCOME

Page 7: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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2008-2012: SUCCESSFUL EXECUTION AND SIGNIFICANT DIVIDENDS

60

135

60 60 60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€375 mn of dividends distributed over the period

0.20.6

2008 2012

0.5

1.0

2008 2012 2011-2012

INSTALLED CAPACITY (GW) INSTALLED CAPACITY (GW) SYNERGIES (€ MN)

DIVIDENDS DISTRIBUTED (€ MN)

Strong growth in Renewables

Expansion in Thermal Power

Significant synergies from TotalErg achieved

≃40(1)

(1) 100% TotalErg(2) Non-recourse

CAGR: 32%

CAGR: 18%

212

1,082 1,179≃900

586

Return to strong balance sheet

0.4x 6.4x 3.5x 4.2x 2.1xNFP/EBITDA

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FCST

NFP Adjusted

CASHTOTALERG (51%)PFCORPORATE LOANS

(2)

(2)

Page 8: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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STRENGTHENED GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

• Number of independent Board Members increased, now 4 out of 12

• Strategic Committee chaired by the EVP and composed of 5 Members

• Investment decisions assessed by a technical Investment Committee chaired by the CEO

• Control and Risk Committee composed of 3 independent Board Members

• Nominations and Remuneration Committee composed of 3 independent Board Members

• Board of Directors approved a Management compensation scheme ≃50% based on MBO

and LT value creation, as proposed by the Remuneration Committee

• Strong Management team with proven execution track record

Page 9: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

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BUSINESS PLAN 2013-2015

CEO

LUCA BETTONTE

Page 10: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

10

ERG PORTFOLIO

Renewables Power Refining & Marketing

• 1.2GW of wind installed capacity (including Maestrale)

• Operated by ERG Renew and LUKERG (50% JV with Lukoil in Eastern Europe)

• ERG Power: 480MW CCGT plant in Sicily

• ISAB Energy: 528MW IGCC plant (51% onwed)

• 20% of ISAB (coastal refining)

• 51% of TotalErg

• 100% of ERG Oil Sicilia

Page 11: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

11

Renewables

MARKET POSITIONING

Power Refining & Marketing

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.5

2.7

3

3.4

4.5

8.2

Installed wind capacity in Europe (GW) EBITDA k€/MW installed(1) Marketing - Market share 2012E (%)(2)

1st wind operator in Italyand 9th in Europe

Unique cash generative assetswithin the Italian landscape 3rd player in Italy

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

6%7%

10%11%12%

15%

32%

12%

(1) For ERG, it refers to Power business only and is calculated on IT GAAP EBITDA. For Italian peers, it is calculated as (EBITDA 2011 of Renewables and Energy business / MW installed as of 31.12.11).

(2) Does not include: independents, white pumps and smaller oil companies

+

min

maxItalian Peers

157

Source: public information Source: Annual Reports Source: Company estimates and Unione Petrolifera

1.2

Page 12: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

12

ACQUISITION OF IP MAESTRALE

550

86

111

161

9155

95

37

13.5 24

6

22.5

20

TOT = 636MW

ITALY GERMANY

Key transaction terms:

• On December 5, 2012 ERG signed an agreement with GDF Suez

to acquire 80% of IP Maestrale with a put & call agreement for

the remaining 20%

• EV of €859mn (excluding MtM of derivatives for ca. €130mn);

equity value of €28.2mn for 80% stake

• Implied EV of €1.35mn per installed MW

Wind Capacity installed: 636MW

• 550MW in Italy, 86MW in Germany

• 96% of capacity with Vestas WTGs

• Average load factor : ca. 2,000heq

• Average incentive residual life: 9 years average GCs in Italy

Financing:

• PF until December 2022

• Attractive financing conditions Source: ERG

Page 13: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

13

STRATEGIC RATIONALE & SYNERGIES

• Italian competitive positioning: ERG becomes the 1st Italian wind operator with a market share of 14% and an asset base >1GW

• EU competitive positioning: ERG is the 9th wind operator in Europe with a footprint in France, Germany, Bulgaria and Romania

• Very well fitted asset technology: IP Maestrale assets are mainly equipped with WTGs from Vestas, which is a strategic industrial partner for ERG Renew

• Geographical presence: IP Maestrale assets location fully complementary with ERG Renew’s wind farms location in Italy (Sardinia, Sicily and Basilicata)

• More sustainable critical mass: synergies in the Italian O&M portfolio; boost for further growth (national and international); potential opportunities for different ways of selling electricity

Strategic rationale

Potential value creation from synergies

• Further consolidation of the relationship with Vestas

• Possibility of cost savings in future framework agreement with WTGs suppliers

• Increase operating efficiency and availability

Page 14: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

14

ERG RENEW POSITIONING

Positioning (MW) - Italy (7.4GW)

Mkt Share

623

550

488

474

456

337

328

292

272

262 4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

7%

7%

8%

14%

1.3

1.5

1.5

2.7

3.0

3.4

4.5

8.2

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

5%

9%

86

64

40

1,061

Positioning (GW) - Europe (94.1GW)

Geographical presenceTotal installed Capacity (1,231 MW)(1)

Italy 85%Germany 7%

France 5%Bulgaria 3%

Source: ERG

2

9

77

249

55239

199

111 120 (1)(3)

84(2)

(1) Includes Amaroni (22.5MW) in Italy, LUKERG at 50% for Easterne Europe, and IP Maestrale

(2) Under construction (3) Excludes IP Maestrale

1.2 (1)

1,061(1)

Page 15: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

15

STRATEGIC GUIDELINES

Renewables

Power

Refining & Marketing

• Completion of the acquisition of Maestrale and realisation of synergies

• Increase in operating efficiency

• Growth in Eastern Europe

• Selected growth in Italy

• Continuous improvement of asset base quality

- captive volumes

- premium price

• Maximising cash generation to the Group

• Option of CIP6 early termination under analysis

• Option to fully exit coastal refining by 2013

• Adapting Retail network by anticipating business dynamics

• Focus on working capital management

• Conversion of Rome refinery into a storage hub

Page 16: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

16

SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND LOWER VOLATILITY

CRUDE PROCESSING

239

ERG exposure to crude processing(1) and wind

56%25%

19%

38%

34%

28%

RENEWABLES POWER REFINING & MARKETING

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 FCST 2013E 2014E 2015E

(Mtons) (GW)

(1) Assumes ISAB put exercise

Invested Capital

2012 FCST (€2.8bn)

2015E (€3.3bn)(1)

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0

WIND INSTALLED CAPACITY

Page 17: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

17

• Opportunities in Eastern Europe, where markets retain attractive growth profiles

• Targeting additional ≃100MW(1) of high-quality capacity in Romania and Bulgaria

• Right mix of organic and M&A

• Further geographical and technological diversification to be assessed

• Strict capital discipline: target average Equity IRR >13%

Growth / Diversification

RENEWABLES: STRATEGY

Italian Market Consolidation

• Focus on a timely and successful integration of IP Maestrale within ERG Renew

• Carefully selected growth in Italy

Operating Efficiency

(1) Pro quota ERG in LUKERG

• Further cost reduction

• Development of higher load factor projects

• Further internalisation of O&M operations

Page 18: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

18

RENEWABLES: KEY FIGURES

≃0.6

1.4

CAGR:

≃34

%

≃130

≃300

Cumulative Capex 2013-2015: ≃€300mn

2012 FCST 2015E2012 2015E

EBITDA (€ mn)Installed Wind Capacity (GW)

MAESTRALE

REST OF EUROPE

ITALY

CAGR:

≃32

%

Page 19: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

19

RENEWABLES: FOCUS ON EASTERN EUROPE

1.0 GW

3.0 GW

Romania: Market profile

0.6 GW

1.0 GW

Bulgaria: Market profile

Strategic Rationale ERG Renew Target

Strategic Rationale ERG Renew Target

• Attractive load factors

• Supportive business environment

• Stable regulatory framework, with incentive scheme defined until 2016:

- 15-year of Green Certificates

- Green Certificates price cap / floor mechanism in place

• 70MW(1) of which 42MW in construction

• LUKERG market share: 5%

• Attractive load factors

• Supportive business environment

• New incentive scheme from April 2012:

- FIT (88 to 98 €/MWh)

- Incentive period for new plants:12 years

- Temporary grid access to transmission networks

• 30MW(1) in 2015

• LUKERG market share: 6%

CAGR: 32%

CAGR: 13%

2012 2015E

2012 2015E

(1) Pro quota ERG in LUKERG

Source: NREAP

Page 20: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

20

• Premium for captive volumes

- ≃2.0TWh p.a. (≃70% of total produced) sold to Iren with a minimum guaranteed spark

spread

- ≃0.7TWh p.a. (≃25% of total produced) sold to captive clients

• Premium price in Sicily, though expected to decrease progressively

• Focus on operational efficiency

- increasing CCGT cogeneration and participation to Dispatching Service Market (“MSD”)

- maintaining high plant availability

ERG Power

POWER: STRATEGY

• Premium for CIP6 subsidy

- ≃4.2TWh p.a. sold to GSE at CIP6 price until 2020

- CO2 fully reimbursed

• Premium for load factor: dispatching priority

• Available option(1) for CIP6 early termination: decision to exercise option based on financial criteria only

ISAB Energy

(1) Option deadline at 31st March 2013

Page 21: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

21

CASH EBITDA CIP6 IAS EBITDA

≃50

EBITDA Evolution (€ mn) FFO Evolution(1) (€ mn)

≃140

≃300

≃200

2012 FCST 2013E 2014E 2015E

POWER: KEY FIGURES

EBITDA key drivers

• Phasing out of CIP6 IAS accounting effect

• Sicilian price assumed to converge to PUN in 2015

• ISAB Energy general turnaround in 2014

2012 FCST 2013E 2014E 2015E

Stable and strong post-capex cash flow expected

• 2013 FFO peak due to delayed 2012 GSE payments

• Total Capex €60mn for 2013-2015, of which €35mn for maintenance

(1) Operating cash flow after Capex and before financial charges and tax

Page 22: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

22

Marketing

R&M: STRATEGY

Refining & Logistics

• JV envisages plan approval in Q1-13

• Retail demand expected to remain broadly flat

• Network rationalisation

• Optimisation of format mix / price positioning

• Targeting further fixed and variable cost reduction

• Active working capital management

0

1

2

3

4

5

UK FRA GER SPA ITA

1.3

3.03.23.5

4.2(Ml year/station)

n. of stations (‘000) 8.8 12.1 13.8 9.7 23.0

% Self-service 95% 99% 99% 99% 35%

Average output per station in Europe

Source: public information

• Finalisation of TotalErg’s Rome refinery transformation into a storage hub underway

• Development of TotalErg logistics hub

• Option to fully exit the coastal refining by 2013

Page 23: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

23

TOTALERG: KEY FIGURES

Network repositioning

2015E

N. of stations

DODO

CODO

COCO

≃3,200 -15%

Throughput ps (MI/year) ≃1.0 +40%

≃90

2012 FCST 2015E

TotalErg EBITDA (€ mn)

REFINING

SPECIALTIES

WHOLESALE

RETAIL

2012E

Note: Figures refer to 100% of TotalErg

Avg. C

AGR: 23%

2012 FCST

• Increase in automation

• Increase in company-operated service stations (COCO)

• Targeting 40% throughput per station increase

• Total 2013-2015 Capex: ≃€200mn, 70% for retail

Page 24: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

24

STRONG GROWTH THROUGH A SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODEL

CORPORATE

RENEWABLES

POWER

REFINING & MARKETING

28%

EBITDA (€ mn)

60%

CAPEX breakdown

12%

>420

>500≃600

2012 FCST 2013E 2015E

MAINTENANCE CAPEX

DEVELOPMENT CAPEX

30%

70%

CAGR: 13%

30%

53%

17%

2013E-2015E2013E

Total cumulative Capex ≃€500mnCapex 2013E ≃€190mn

Page 25: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

25

CASH GENERATION, DE-LEVERAGE AND DIVIDEND POLICY CONFIRMED

2013-2015 sources and uses of cash

≃€900mn

NFP 2012 Maestrale De-Leverage NFP 2015

≃€1,100m

≃€900mn ≃€700mn

2012-2015 NFP Evolution

Derivatives MtM(2)

Derivatives MtM(1)

Derivatives MtM(3)

≃€1,500mn

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Option to

exercise puton refining

Operatingcash flow after interest and tax

44%

Capex

12%

9%

36%

Dividends

Minorities

Implicit De-leverage

(1) MtM of derivatives at 30.11.2012: ≃€80mn(2) MtM of derivatives for Maestrale: ≃€130mn(3) MtM of derivatives expected at 31.12.2015: ≃€100mn

Page 26: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

26

EVOLUTION OF NFP: NO REFINANCING RISK AND FIREPOWER TO ACCELERATE GROWTH

CASH TOTALERG (51%) - NON RECOURSE PROJECT FINANCING - NON RECOURSE CORPORATE LOANSNFP Adjusted

Note: assuming dividend distribution flat in the plan period at €60mn per year

2012FCST(1)

2013BDG

2015Plan

≃900

≃1,300≃1,100

≃2.1x <3x ≃2xNFP/EBITDA

(1) MtM of derivatives at 30.11.2012: ≃€80mn(2) Assumes put exercise on ISAB refinery within 31.12.2013

(2)

Page 27: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

27

FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE OVER THE PLAN

CAPEXSustain long-term growth in Renewables

Target average Equity IRR >13%

Dividend Policy

FinancialProject Financing for Renewables and Power

Long-term corporate debt not refinanced at maturityStrong balance sheet

NFP/EBITDA ≃3xStable dividend per share

Page 28: ERG - Overview of 2013-2015 Business Strategy

28

CONCLUSIONS

• Targeting EBITDA volatility reduction and sustained cash generation

- Renewables: new, wider quality asset base assuring long term growth

- Power: further operating optimisation and strong cash generation

- R&M: proactively repositioning in light of current market conditions

• Strong balance sheet with firepower to fuel growth in a challenging environment

• Further upside achievable through potential Renewables geographic and technological diversification

• Oil marketing industry restructuring may offer consolidation opportunities for TotalErg


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