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Eric de JongCOO OTTO Work Force
Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration 2015 - 2030
OTTO Work ForceEmployment offer on large
scale throughout
Europe
European labour market
without borders
Over 15.000 flex workers
mainly in The Netherlands, Germany and
Poland
Demographic development
is our key factor
OTTO Work Force specialist on Labour Migration in EU since 2000
We know the market
resources for our clients
We know and understand our client’s needs
15 years experience on the European Labour Market
Turnover in € x 1. 000
Turnover in hours x 1.000
Total recruitment hours x 1.000
Number FTE stafemployees
50
1
Poland
€ 30.1638.397
163
Germany
€ 48.6502.581
64
The Netherlands
€ 158.411
8.391
189
Slovakia
€ 2.054
1.169
1.550
52
3.7082.846
€ 207 mio (2014)€ 237 mio (2015)
-----
Ukraine
€ 141167
9
167
Czech Republic
€ 158
417
417
4
Hungary
€ 55
144
144
2
Turnover 2014/2015
Labour migration
PolandBelarusBulgariaUkraineRomania
Denmark
France
Germany
The United Kingdom
Spain
The Netherlands
2000 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
17% 16% 15%
67% 65% 60%
16%19% 25%
00-14 15-64 ages over 64
Million262
279287
Growth p.a.2015-2030
1,9%
-0,3%
-0.1%
0.2%
Western Europe: still growing but greying
- 8.1 mln.
People In working
population
- 0,1%
Germany: shrinking and greying
2000 2015 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
15% 13% 13%
69%66%
59%
16%21%
28%
00-14 15-64 ages over 64
MillionGrowth p.a. 2015-2030
1.7%
-0.9%
0%
81.9 80.7 79.3
- 8.1 mln.
People on the labour
market- 6.6 mln.
people in working
population
2000 2015 20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
18% 15% 14.5%
69%69%
64%
13%16%
21.5%
00-14 15-64 ages over 64
Million127
112
111
1.5%
-1%
-0.8%
Growth p.a. 2015-2030
-0.5%
CEE: shrinking and greying
- 11.3 mln.
people in working
population
2015 202536
38
40
42
44
46
48
All educated levels, all in-dustries
(2015 and 2025) in million people
Demand for labour
6.5
0.8
2015 202522
24
26
28
30
32
34
High school educated level, all industries
(2015 and 2025) in million people
Demand for labour Supply of labour
0.2
-2.5
LACK OF HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATED LABOURERS PUTS PRESSURE ON GERMAN LABOUR MARKET
Wholesale/Retail
Manufacturing
Other Services
Transportation
Public Administration
Construction
MEA
Hotels and Catering
Health
BPOS
Education
ICT
Financial
Power Generation
Water
Professional services
Mining
Real Estate
Not identified
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
share in % of total increase of demand for labour all educated levels in 2015-2025
PRESSURE CONCENTRATED ON SPECIFIC SECTORS IN GERMANY
Tightening on the labour market 2015 - 2025
Germany total 6 mln.
University 0,8 mlnHigh school 3,1 mlnRest 2,1 mln
Netherlands total 1,3 mln
University 0,2 mlnHigh school 0,5 mlnRest 0,6 mln
Poland total 2.5 mln.
University 0,2 mln.High school + 0,5 mln.Rest 2,8 mln.
1.
•WE workforce is shrinking in 2015 -2030 with 8.1 million or 0.3% p.a. due to greying of the population, but the total population increases still with 0.2%.
2.
•In the CEE group the workforce will be shrinking by 11.3 million people or 1% p.a., the total population will shrink with 0.5% in the same period.
3.
•The loss of labourers in CEE causes shortages there at the labour markets.
4.
•Labour shortages in WE, like in Germany will stimulate migration from countries in CEE.
5.
•The German example shows strong demand in wholesale and retail, manufacturing, transport and services .
PRESSURE CONCENTRATED ON SPECIFIC SECTORS IN GERMANY Conclusions
Conclusion6. Traditional ‘east to west’ migration will remain
7. Migration inside CEE will remain as well (Ukraine to Poland)
8. Wages will increase in all regions
9. Countries should be attractive for potential labour migrants
10. Labour migrants should integrate (cultural, language)
Succesfull labour
migration OTTO Work
Force
Variable job offersOffers for all age groups
Offers for Holiday workersShort term offersLong term offers
Offers for couples and groupsVariable levels of skills
Recruitment processCultural fit testLanguage tests
OTTO best matchOTTO Work Students
Onboarding proces
OTTO 3D Warehousetrainer
Language skills development
OTTO Academy Service
Organized infastructureExpert in managing migration
proces
We deliver not only resources to our
client but also help them in resulting
flexibility and productivity with the
immigrants. This at the end results in
optimising labour costs.
Questions?