ERTAC 1DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE. Presentation Overview 1.Process Overview and Timelines 2.Inputs...

DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE 1

ERTAC


Presentation Overview

1. Process Overview and Timelines2. Inputs3. Algorithm Details4. Results5. Outstanding issues


1. Process Overview and Timelines

a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee? b. Criteria for productc. Committee structured. Progress & Timeline


What are we trying to accomplish ?

• Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria:– Conservative predictions of unit activity– Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit retirement, fuel

switching & controls– Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of scenarios– Stable/stiff– Transparent– Inexpensive– Relies on base year activity data– Flexible

DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

ERTAC EGU Growth

• Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee• Collaboration:– NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan states– Multi-jurisdictional organizations– Industry

• [adds weight who in industry]• How were they involved• Realistic inputs and refine the logic, such as reserve

capacity

5


Subcommittees and Co-Chairs • ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs:

– Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP – Bob Lopez, WI DE – Danny Wong, NJ DEP

• Four Subcommittees and Leads:– Implementation/Doris McLeod VA, Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic for

software – Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV: Regional specific growth

rates for peak and off peak – Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default data to reflect state

specific information – Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe,

NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors


State Involvement

• Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs

• State leaded identified in each state for QA of the input files

• These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance

• If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal


Progress So Far ....

• Model Development: – Methodology created, documentation crafted – Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and

Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) – Developing postprocessing software

• Estimating Growth in Generation: – Growth rates and regions defined – Created growth rate inputs for 2009 & 2010


Progress So Far ....

• Input File Development: – Unit file and future controls file reviewed by states– Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps – Further state input ongoing

• Results:– Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor– Distributed to member states for review

• Sensitivities:– Conducted scenarios with varied techniques for input values– Ran alternative growth rate sensitivities

DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

ERTAC TimelineSeptember - October, 2012• Initial “East of the Mississippi” test runs• Goal: Demonstrate a “Proof of Concept”• Review output, revise and rerun• Present results to states for comment

November, 2012 • Goal: Determine areas of improvement• Present to full ERTAC Committee• Present model and “Proof of Concept” results to USEPA

technical staff

Spring 2013• Goal: Improve input and model• Develop AEO 2012 growth factors which reflect new fuel mix

paradigm

Anticipated Future tasks• Develop new base year 2011

10


Data Importation

a. Inputsb. Preprocessingc. Growth Rates


ERTAC Inputs

• Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data – Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location – Units categorized by:

• Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal]

• Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WUMS)]

• States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc

• EIA AEO growth factors • NERC peak growth factors


Preprocessing Functions

• Data Edit Checks– Unit availability file– Controls file– Growth rates file– BY hourly CAMD data

• Removes non-EGUs• Determines hourly temporal hierarchy – Based on regional hourly GL– Important for load distribution and growth

rates


Preprocessing Functions

• Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units• Assesses partial year reporting units• Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution• For every hour, calculates “hourly load values” by

region and fuel/unit type– Retired generation– New unit generation– Existing generation

• Calculates “non peak” growth rates


Growth Rates (GR)• Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal

profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles– Resulting FY profile might different from BY

• Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality

• AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth – Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy– Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy– Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to 8760 hours.

• Combined factor is further adjusted to account for:– Retirements & new units


The evolution of growth rates from annual to hourly

Transition(hours 201-2000 in

hierarchy)

AEO2010 (by region/fuel)

Nonpeak Growth(hours 2001-8760

in hierarchy)

NERC (by region/fuel)

Peak Growth(hours 1-200 in

hierarchy)

Final Hourly Growth

Adjusted for retirements/new units each hour


Growth Rates• Peak GR = 1.07• Annual GR = 0.95

• Transition hours of 200 & 2,000• Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)


EIA's AEO Projection of Coal Consumption for Electricity Generation

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20301500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

AEO2008AEO2009AEO2010AEO2012

Mill

ion

Meg

awatt

-Hou

rs


EIA's AEO Projection of Gas Consumption for Electricity Generation

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200AEO2008AEO2009AEO2010AEO2012

Mill

ion

Meg

awatt

-Hou

rs


EIA's AEO Projection of Oil Consumption for Electricity Generation

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 203020

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70AEO2008AEO2009AEO2010AEO2012

Mill

ion

Meg

awatt

-Hou

rs


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Fossil Fuel Electric Power-to-Grid Generation TrendsMonthly Totals by Fuel Type - EIA Data - US Aggregate

Coal:Electric Power Linear (Coal:Electric Power)Petroleum Liquids:Electric Power Petroleum Coke:Electric PowerNatural Gas:Electric Power Linear (Natural Gas:Electric Power)Total Fossil Fuel Electric Power for Grid Linear (Total Fossil Fuel Electric Power for Grid)

Year (Monthly)

MWh*1000


3. Algorithm Details

a. Regional modularityb. Adjusted FY Growth Ratesc. Excess generation poold. Generic units e. New Unit Utilizationf. Spinning Reserve


Regional/Fuel Modularity

• Each ERTAC region analyzed independently• Reserve analyzed on a regional basis• Algorithm determines if capacity has been

met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type

Use new units

For all ERTAC Regions

For all Fuel/Type Bins

Analyze capacity versus demand

Assign generation

Spinning Reserve


Current ERTAC Regions


Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates (AFYGR), Hour Specific

• For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for:– Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen)– Total Retired Generation (RetGen)– Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen)

• GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads!

AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen)


Excess Generation Pool

• If unit growth exceeds capacity– Unit is limited to capacity– Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation

pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin• The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation

hierarchy order– Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max

capacity in two distribution loops– Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all

units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand)


New Generic Units

• Added to meet demand• Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis,

similar to new state supplied units• Receive unmet demand• Size/location of generic units adjustable• FY temporal profile assigned by region and

fuel/unit type• If a generic unit is added, the allocation hierarchy

is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hourFirst/next hour in the hierarchy

Does capacity meet demand?

Add generic unit

Reallocate unit order

Begin at first hour in the hierarchy

Y

N


New Unit Utilization• New units receive generation from the excess

generation pool– Annual power production limited by default or state

input– Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —

program allows user to change the “mimic” unit• New units (generic and state supplied) are high in

utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be:– Very efficient– Very clean

• Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable


Spinning Reserve check

• Following assignment of generation• Check if reserve capacity is available for each

hour in each region• If in any hour there is not reserve capacity

equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised

Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour

Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ?

Y

NAlert: More capacity needed

First/next hour


Results

a. Outputb. Examplesc. Runtime


Output/Results

• Future year hourly activity– Heat input (mmbtu)– Gross load (MW)– SO2 emissions (lbs)– NOx emissions (lbs)

• File includes 8,760 hours for each:– Existing unit that is not retired– New state supplied unit– New generic unit created by the code

• Summary files• Post-projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc


Output from ERTAC EGU V1

• Unit level• Overall output


Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MWAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

BY FY

Mm

btu/

hr

Calendar Hours

Variations in growth rate


Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MWAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Mm

btu/

hr

Calendar Hours

Inefficient hour BY: 11,232 BTU/KW-hrFY: uses updated heat rate

50 hour depiction for an individual unit

BY FY


Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 ControlAnnual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012

BY FY

BY lb

s/hr

Calendar Hours

FY lb

s/hr


Example: Combined Cycle New Unit, 300 MWAnnual GR= 0.904, Peak GR=1.2, Nonpeak GR=0.901

New units are supplied with temporal variability with grounding in base year meteorology


Example: Simple Cycle Existing Unit, 53 MWAnnual GR=1.39, Peak GR=1.549, Nonpeak GR=1.377


Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 1 Example


Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 2 Example


Ver. 1 summary results – all regions

Heat Input

SO2 EmissionsNOX Emissions

Generation

AEO2010 says growth in coal

Controls plus clean new units

Shutdowns w/ new clean units


In summary

• The model has been built• Output has been generated• Continuing effort to evaluate output and update

inputs– Partial year reporters– Generic units– Unit hierarchies– Thing Two

• New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed• Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy

Date post:	30-Dec-2015
Category:	Documents
Upload:	bathsheba-hensley
View:	217 times
Download:	0 times

ERTAC 1DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE. Presentation Overview 1.Process Overview and Timelines 2.Inputs...

Documents