Fibre market trends in Europe16 September 2019UK Fibre Connectivity Forum, LondonErzsébet Fitori, FTTH Council Europe

OVERVIEW

• The State of Fibre and Forecast 2020-2025

• Copper Switch-Off & Migration to Fibre

• The EU’s Key Decision Makers for Digital

European Ranking As of September 2018

• Penetration rates of European countries at September 2018 (FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

• Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households

IDATE developed a set of hypothesesbased on different criteria related to eachcountry in the FTTH forecast: government& local bodies’ involvement, the role ofthe players, the topology of the existingnetworks, the demography and dwellingsetting, regulation, segmentation of thepopulation living in SDU and MDU.

The following table presents the main analysis criteria andtheir possible impact on the development of FTTH/B:

FTTH/B ForecastIDATE Methodology

FTTH/B ForecastTop 15 countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2020 & 2025

% Evolution 2018 / 2020

+2%+33%

+0.5%

+11%+81%

+27%

+184%

+12%

+62%

+5%+44%+4%+40%

+12%

+3%

+6%+858%

+81%

+230%+551%

+2%

+86%

+24%

+169%

+29%+112%

+9%+11%

+35%+6%

2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts% Evolution 2018

/ 2025

2025 ForecastsEU28 : ~166m FTTH H.P.EU39 : ~263m FTTH H.P.

FTTH/B ForecastTop 15 countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2025

Copper Switch-Off & Migration to FibreStudy Background

• Analysis focusing on status of switch-off process of PSTN and copper network

• Focus on 10 selected countries: Estonia, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, France, Poland, Germany, UK

• Overview of benefits of switch-off process for operators & consumers

• Overview of enablers & incentives of switch-off process

• Overview of regulatory barriers/barriers

Copper Switch-Off & Migration to FibreProgress

• Limited progress towards copper switch-off in the 10 countries studied

• Estonia and Sweden are clear leaders, more gradual process Spain, Portugal

• Focus on migration to FTTC in Italy (partial switch-off)

• Pilots in NL. No concrete plans in remaining 4 countries (FR, DE, UK, PL)

Copper Switch-Off & Migration to FibreKey Conclusions

• Switching from copper to FTTH delivers benefits to both consumers and operators and improves the business case for FTTH

• Limited progress towards copper switch-off in Europe so far

• From the countries studied, only EE has made major steps to switch customers from copper to FTTH, while switch-off from copper to wireless has progressed in SE

• More progress has been made towards PSTN switch-off (a prerequisite for copper switch-off). PT, EE, NL and DE should achieve all-IP by 2020, but other countries such as FR, PL and UK are not set to achieve all-IP until 2025

• The reasons for the limited switch-off plans are diverse. In some countries FTTH has yet to be widely deployed. In others strict controls on exchange closure may be delaying switch-off. A lack of understanding of the benefits of fibre and challenges in switching to a fibre operator may also be hampering consumers from migrating in other cases.

Copper Switch-Off & Migration to FibreKey Recommendations

Member states and regulators could usefully act to enable copper and PSTN switch-off, and support consumer migration to FTTH:

• Facilitate PSTN switch-off as a precursor inter alia by encouraging operators to find solutions that support legacy equipment or inform consumers of alternatives

• Incentivise FTTH deployment and/or use of FTTH access by incumbents and avoid promoting continued reliance on copper and copper upgrades such as FTTC

• Review conditions (notice periods and wholesale obligations) for copper exchange closure

• Improve customer awareness by clearly distinguishing FTTH from FTTC in advertising

• Improve processes for switching between the incumbent and alternative FTTH platforms

The EU’s Key Decision Makers European Commission’s new structure

Since the European elections in May 2019, the EU has been going through a set of substantial changes.

President-elect Ursula von der Leyen has revealed how she allocated portfolios to her nominees for the next European Commission.

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalVon der Leyen Commission’s proposed structure

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalEuropean Commission

• Margrethe Vestager (Denmark) will coordinate agenda on a "Europe fit for the digital age" and keep her previous portfolio as a Commissioner for Competition. Her new portfolio will include measures to unify the Digital Single Market, bolster cybersecurity and finance innovation. She will also continue to oversee antitrust matters, together with the Directorate General for Competition.

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalEuropean Commission

• The next Commissioner for the Digital Single Market will become a former French DefenceMinister and European politician Sylvie Goulard(France).

• Previously, she played a prominent role in EU financial and banking legislation as a member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2017. MsGoulard was a part of the French foreign ministry legal team that focused on German reunification in 1989 and served as a political adviser to former Commission President Romano Prodi. Apart from digital matters, she will take care of the Industrial policy, the new Directorate-General for DefenceIndustry and Space as well as the Internal Market.

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalEuropean Parlianent

• The main Committees of interest for telecommunications and fibre industry are ITRE (Industry, Research, and Energy) and IMCO (Internal Market and Consumer Protection) Committees.

The ITRE and IMCO MEPs who showed their interest in telecoms and fibre are:

• Adina-Ioana Valean (EPP, Chair of the ITRE Committee, Romania)• Andrus Ansip (Renew Europe, Estonia)• Angelika Niebler (EPP, Germany)• Edina Tóth (EPP, Hungary)• Eva Maydell (EPP, Bulgaria)• Evžen Tošenovský (ECR, Czechia)• Miapetra Kumpula-Natri (S&D, Finland)• Patrizia Toia (S&D, Italy)• Petra De Sutter (Greens/EFA, Chair of the IMCO Committee, Belgium)• Pilar Del Castillo (EPP, Spain)

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalCouncil of the European Union

• The presidency of the Council of the European Union rotates among the EU member states every 6 months. During this 6-month period, the presidency chairs meetings at every level in the Council, helping to ensure the continuity of the EU’s work in the Council. Member states holding the presidency work together closely in groups of three, called ‘trios’.

• The current trio is made up of the presidencies of Romania, Finland (currently in office), and Croatia. In the second half of 2020, Germany will take the presidency of the Council.

• The Finnish programme seeks to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest, expand the digital internal market and strengthen military cooperation

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalThe Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications (BEREC)

The regulating agency of the telecommunication market in theEuropean Union BEREC has elected the new Chair for 2020. DanSjöblom, the Director-General of the Swedish Post and TelecomAuthority (PTS), was appointed to take the office starting from nextyear. Prior to taking up his position, Mr Sjöblom was the Director-General for the Swedish Competition Authority for eight years,between 2009 and 2017. He is also the board member of theSwedish Broadband Council. Mr Sjöblom has served as a civilservant at the European Commission between 1996 and 2009. Heholds a Master of Laws from Stockholm University.

The EU’s Key Decision Makers for DigitalThe Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications (BEREC)

Mr. Sjöblom will substitute the outgoing Chair for 2019Jeremy Godfrey, the Commissioner of ComReg (Ireland).The BEREC Vice-Chairs for 2019 are Mr Sjöblom (untiltaking the Chair’s office in 2020), Ms Tanja Muha,Director of AKOS (Slovenia), Mr Marcin Cichy, Presidentof UKE (Poland) and Mr Konstantinos Masselos,President of EETT (Greece).

FTTH Conference 2020 www.ftthconference.eu

FTTH Market Panorama: the UK by Sep. 2018

Population: 66 000 000 (estimated 2017)

Households: 27 900 000

Mill

ions

Thank you for your attention!

www.ftthcouncil.euwe connect technology, policy and finance

Erzsébet Fitori, Director GeneralFTTH Council Europe

erzsebet.fitori@ftthcouncil.eu