ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION. Lead partner and coordinator: Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden Partners: Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION Lead partner and coordinator: Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden Partners: Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna IGEAT, ULB, Bruxelles University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara NIBR, Oslo VÁTI, Budapest
Transcript
ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4:
THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSAND MIGRATION
Lead partner and coordinator:Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden
Partners:Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon
University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna
IGEAT, ULB, Bruxelles
University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara
NIBR, Oslo
VÁTI, Budapest
Matrix for policy implications and policy recommendations
Levels
Objectives
Micro Meso Macro
Sustainable development
Competitiveness
Territorial and social cohesion
Policentricicity – both means and objective
Policy recommendation 1: Stimulate natural population increase and TFR
Points of departure:• Difficult through policy recommendations stimulate natural population development
• Natural population development – cohort phenomenon
• Natural population development – often a result of the age and gender structure
Recommendations:• A common (European) social and family policy and a more active labour market policy
that stimulates higher fertility
• Better female labour market conditions stimulate childbearing
• Out-migration regions – more attractive
• Better child care – public or private (the three generation family is gone, defamilisation is a fact)
TFR 1999 to the left (more disaggregated in appendix A) Natural growth potential 2020 to the right
Implications: • Increased east-west migration erodes territorial cohesion. • Out-migration of qualified people have negative consequences
on spatial development and competitiveness Recommendations at meso and macro levels:• Stimulate symmetrical migratory flows• Close the gap in living conditions (in a wider sense) between
regions and nations – symmetrical migratory flows• Stimulate structural transformation of the economy among the
new EU-members – risks in short run but necessary in the long • Stimulate regional enlargement (even across borders) –
larger local labour markets, decreased mismatch• Better accessibility
• Don’t hamper migration in general – migration and mobility are lubricants for economic development!
International migratory balance (left) and immigrations rates (right)
Implications:• depopulation - a risk for many regions both in short and long term• depopulation erodes territorial and social cohesion as well as
competitiveness and sustainability
Recommendations:• Multifunctional perspective on the agricultural sector in combination
with better accessibly and services (micro/meso/macro)
• Stimulate local and regional services to hamper out-migration (micro)
• Sustainable use of resources and avoidance of environmental/ecological pressure in densely populated regions can be hampered by a successful policy to hamper out-migration from depopulation areas (micro/meso)
• Stimulate growth poles in the depopulation areas (micro/meso)
Population change (left) and relative/structural depopulation (right)
Origin of data: EU15 and CC's: Eurostat,Norway and Switzerland: National Statistics OfficesSource: ESPON Database
The content of this map does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the espon monitoring
committee
Average score on indirect depopulation indicators in 2000
Average score on indirect depopulation indicators in 2000
Origin of data : EU15 and CC's : EurostatNorway and Switzerland : National Statistics OfficesSource : ESPON databasevery low relative depopulation
low relative depopulationhigh relative depopulationvery high relative depopulation
0 400 Kilometers
The content of this mapdoes not necessarily reflect the opînion ofthe espon monitoringcommittee
Evolution of the population between 1990 and 2000
Origin of data : EU 15 and CC's : Eurostat Norway and Switzerland : National statistics officeSource : ESPON DatabaseCartography : IGEAT- ULB
LEGEND
average annual growth (%)
no data< -1.00-1 - -0.3-0.3 - 00 - 0.30.3 - 1> 1
#
Policy recommendation 4: Replacement migration
Point of departure: Immigration is necessary in various degrees to hamper the decrease in population and labour force in EU29.
Recommendations:
• Sustainable development will not be achieved if immigrants are free to settle down wherever they want in EU29.
• Immigration policies must promote immigration to peripheral areas that must be done more attractive.
• Focus on immigrants with different skills and competence concerning various countries and regions in EU29. The need differ with regard to the economic and labour market structure.
• Higher female labour force participation rates
• Stimulate productivity development and structural transformation – substitute labour with capital and labour with labour
Replacement migration 2000-2050 (% of population)– model A (the worst case and unrealistic)
Gaps:• Difficult to construct longer time series for EU29 at NUTS3• Migratory movements: origin and/or destination both with EU29 and external migration• Data on international migration only on NUTS2 - impossible to distinguish intra29-
migrant from and extraEU29-migrant on NUTS3• Life expectancy data at regional levels• For many countries – elderly people are not disaggregated (only 70+)• The scale problem – more data on NUTS4/5Further research:• Migratory gross flows and origin/destination on NUTS3 both with regard to internal and
international migrations – necessary to analyse symmetrical migratory movements• Educational level of the migrants are in many cases missing• Age and gender structure at NUTS3 is “shaky” and for many countries nonexistent• The scale problem: NUTS2 and NUTS3 are in many cases too rough in order to analyse
depopulation and the post-industrial migration and pattern.• The development from an industrial to a post-industrial migration and settlement pattern
is a research field that will be increasingly important concerning spatial analyses
