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&STIMATE DEMAND FUNCTION ORECAST DEMAND&OR INTERNET EMAIL
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Contents
Introduction1
pecifying the DemandFunction2
&egression Estimation3
emand Forecasting4
&onclusion Discussion5
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Introduction
mprovement in ICTliteracy
eclining Cost ofComputing
hanging Culture
nables a Telco operanables a Telco operat o plan the future activitio plan the future activiti o make decisions on investo make decisions on invest
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Demand Function
DemandDemandforfor
InternetInternet&&
EmailEmailserviceservice
TT
DD II
Telephonesubscribers
Governmentinitiatives
Consumer sPrice Index
( )CPI
Dependent variable
Quantity demand
Independent variables
Telephone
subscribers
CPI
Government
initiatives
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Specifying the Demand Function
vLinear = +a b T+ cI+ eDv og Linear
=n Q ln f+ ln T+ lnI+ jDvLegend
:Q Quantity demand :T Telephone subscribers : I Consumer s Price Index
:D : :0 Year 1996 to Year 2001 and 1
Year 2002 to Year 2009
v
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Data
Year umber of&nternet
mailsubscribers
umber ofelephone linesubscribers
onsumerrice Index overnmentCTInitiatives
1996 ,2 504 ,255 049 ,1 907 01997 ,10 195 ,341 622 ,2 089 0
1998 ,18 984 ,523 529 ,2 284 0
1999 ,25 535 ,669 113 ,2 392 0
2000 ,40 497 ,767 411 ,2 540 0
2001 ,61 532 ,827 195 ,2 900 0
2002 ,73 468 ,883 108 ,3 176 12003 ,85 500 ,939 013 ,3 377 1
2004 ,93 444 ,991 239 ,3 632 1
2005 ,115 000 , ,1 243 994 ,4 055 1
2006 ,130 000 , ,1 884 076 ,4 356 1
2007 ,202 348 , ,2 742 059 ,4 896 1
2008 ,234 000 , ,3 446 411 ,5 747 12009 ,250 000 , ,3 391 484 ,6 541 1
Sources:
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Model Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardized
Coefficients
t .Sig . %95 0 ConfidenceInterval for B
B .Std Error Beta LowerBound
UpperBound
1 ( )Constant - .51515 728 .15393 024 - .3 347 .007 - .85813 523- .17217 932
ACCESS .039 .009 .514 .4 185 .002 .018 .060CPI .23 869 .8 513 .411 .2 804 .019 .4 901 .42 836ICT .17333 013 .7983 213 .109 .2 171 .050 - .454 694 .35120 720
COEFFICIENTS
= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D
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COEFFICIENTSModel Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardi
zedCoefficients
t .Sig . %95 0 ConfidenceInterval for B
B.
StdError
Beta
LowerBound
UpperBound
1 ( )Constant - .2 241 .6 164 -.364 .724 - .15 974 .11 493
ACCESS .2 013 .786 .1 226 .2 562 .028 .262 .3 763CPI - .1 865 .1 952 -.546 -.956 .362 - .6 213 .2 484ICT .824 .502 .324 .1 642 .132 -.294 .1 943
ogLinear
t-statisticsR square value : < 90 %
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Demand Function
vFitted by 99%vSignificance
t statistic for all independent variables > 2 p value < 0.05
= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D
= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D
Overall modelforestimated demandfunction is statisticallysignificant
All the independentvariables areindividuallysignificant
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Conclusion
vModel is satisfactory
vLimitations
Quality of Data
Amount of ICT penetration
vThis is use full to
A Telco planning to invest more in thismodel
A good product development will do it!!!
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Thank You !Thank You !