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Estimating Annual Waste Tire
Generation, Diversion and Disposal in California
A study for the California Integrated Waste
Management Board
Shawn BlosserMatthew Newman
Trisha McMahonRob Wassmer
Presented By:
Building A Model
Review of Estimation Methods in Use Evaluation of Competing Methods Model Overview Data and Parameters Used Results Diversion & Disposal
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Estimating States
Contacted all other 49 states
# States
States With Waste Tire Generation Estimates 37
States Without Waste Tire Generation Estimates 12
Total 49
Alabama, Delaware, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin do not track waste tire generation but are aware of the one tire per person per year metric. These states are reflected in the "states without waste tire generation estimates" category.
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Per Capita Standard is Widespread
Over half used standard of 1 tire per person
# States
States Using Unknown Methodologies 2States Using 1 Tire/Person/Year 23
States Using Other Methodologies 12Total 37
Missouri and Nevada are counted in other methodologies even though they compare to 1 tire per person
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Maryland, Vermont, and Wyoming methodologies may represent the use of one tire per person per year. Additional detail on these methodologies could not be obtained.
Three Other Methods In Use
New tire sales, waste tires received, state models
Methodology # States State(s)
Track Revenues Collected on Tire Sales 4 MO, NV, OK, VA
Track Waste Tires Collected 5 AZ, HI, NC, OH, TN
Industry Survey 1 SC
State-Created Model Estimate 2 FL, WA
Total 12
Oklahoma appears in track revenues, but it also tracks waste collected.
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Basis of Per Capita Metrics
Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA) standard of 1 tire per person
Replacement tire sales + Tires on scrapped vehicles = 299.5 million in 2005
299.5 million/ 296.4 million people
=1.01 PTEs per person/year Asked states to report waste tire generation:
299.15 million ≈ 1.01 PTEs per person/year.
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Per Capita Metrics Are Underestimations
Does not account for variation in tire weights and sizes
Relies on self-fulfilling survey: 1 tire/person/year standard adopted by EPA At least 20 states use the metric as their sole
estimation methodology
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Tracking Tire Fee Revenue Is Not Accurate
Underestimates: Captures just one of many flows of waste tires
net migration, internet sales, net imports, illegal tire sales, industrial waste
May not vary by tire size Oversimplifies:
Weights/sizes/characteristics of tires sold change over time
May not count government vehicles
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Two States UseCustom Models
Existing models oversimplify: Florida model based on tire fees Washington based on vehicle registration
Do not account for other tire flows
Ignore the rate at which tires enter the waste stream
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
What Should A Model Do?
Fully incorporate all tire flows
Track tires over their lifespan
Account for variations in tire weights
Be flexible, state-specific, modifiable, and updatable
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
What Does Our Model Do?
1. Calculates the number of new tires sold in or entering the state every year
2. Assigns these tires to tire categories by weight
3. Estimates the length of time before they enter the waste stream
4. Tabulates the weight of these waste tires
5. Computes the results in PTEs and Tons
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Passenger Vehicles
Autos, SUVs, Pick-ups, Vans,
Motorcycles
Light Trucks
Cargo trucks, 2-axle trucks, etc.
Medium Trucks
Semis & trailers
Heavy Trucks
Garbage trucks, etc.
Off-Road Vehicles
Construction and farm equipment
CA Tires“On the Road”Tires Entering CA Waste Tires
Re-Treading
Medium & Heavy Truck Tires Only
NEW TIRES
USED TIRES
Annual Industry
Sales Data(U.S.)
Breakdown of Estimated
Tires “on the road”for that year
Model estimates that
tires enter waste stream by category based on
either
(1) annual miles driven and tire life
expressed in miles, or
(2) industry estimates of
tire life expressed in
years
Waste Tires expressed in 20 lb. PTEs (Passenger Tire Equivalents)
Rubber waste
from re-treading
Avg. weight per tire calculated by category
using seller, manufacturer, or
industry standards. Passenger reflects CA registration in a year.
Assigned to Tire Categories
based on…Passenger Vehicles
Light Trucks
Medium Trucks
Heavy Trucks
Off-Road Vehicles
BOE Sales Data
New Tires Sales Not Included in
BOE Data
(Internet, etc.)
Net Population Migration from
Census
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Overview of Model Parameters New Tires:
# of New Tires Sold: BOE Revenue # of Tires Sold on Internet: Modern Tire
Dealer # of Tires Sold to government entities:
Federal Highway Administration, CA registration stats.
# of Tires Brought in from Out-of-State: Net migration, # of people per HH, # of vehicles per HH
Tire Life: VMT for Passenger, Light Truck and
Medium Truck: Federal Highway Administration
Tread life for all types: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
# of Retreads for all types: Tire Retread Information Bureau
Annual maximum life: Industry recommendations, RMA
Tire Allocations: # in Passenger, Light Truck, Medium
Truck, Heavy Truck, Off-Road: US Sales Distribution Statistics
Average Tire Weight: Passenger: Tire Size Sale Statistics,
Distributor Specifications, CA vehicle registration
Light Truck: Tire Size Sale Statistics, Distributor Specifications
Medium Truck: Manufacturer Specifications
Heavy Truck, Off-Road: Scrap Tire reports
% difference from new weight: CSUS survey, RMA, UK Environment Agency report.
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Step 1: Calculate the Number of New Tires in CA
Our analysis shows that net imports, industrial waste, and illegal sales are insignificant sources of waste tires.
New tire sales in CANew tire sales from out-of-state Partially-used tires from net migration
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
2005 Tire Sale Distribution
Passenger78.45%
Light Truck13.28%
Medium Truck7.18%
Heavy Truck0.11%
Off-Road0.98%
Step 2: Assign New Tires to Categories
Passenger Vehicles Autos, Vans, SUVs, Pick-ups, Motorcycles P-metric tires
Light Trucks 2-axle, single-frame trucks with 6 or more
tires LT sized, smaller than 8.25” x 20”
Medium Trucks Semi-Trucks and Trailers, etc. Tires sized 8.25” x 20” to 11” x 24.5”
Heavy Trucks Garbage Trucks, etc. Tires sized 11” x 24.5” to 14” x 25”
Off-Road Vehicles Construction and Farm Equipment Tires sized 16” x 20.5” and larger,
plus farm equipment tires
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Step 3: Estimate the Length of Time Tires are on the Road
Function of tire tread life, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), retreading, and time.
Tire CategoryTire Wear:
Tread Life / VMT
Time:
6 yearsRetread
Passenger Yes Yes* No
Light truck Yes Yes* No
Medium truck Yes Yes Yes
Heavy Truck No Yes Yes
Off Road No Yes Yes
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
*Tires wear out from use before 6 year limit is reached.
Step 4: Tabulate the Weight of a Scrap Tire
Calculated new tire weights for passenger, light truck, and medium truck tires Based on most popular tire sizes for passenger
and light truck, on popular brands for medium truck
Passenger average was weighted by registration data
Adjusted to reflect weight loss due to wear Estimated heavy and off-road tires based on
industry data
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Step 5: Compute the Results
Follow tire cohort over the years
Estimate the number of tires that become waste each year
Sum waste tires
Divide by the Passenger Tire Equivalent (PTE)
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Results
Average PTEs/person during 2005 – 2009: 1.24
Average total number of waste tires generated per year during 2005 - 2009: 46 million PTEs
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Average PTE/Capita 2005-2009
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Total Waste PTEs Generated (Millions)2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 TOTAL
Passenger Vehicles 24.02 24.19 21.68 24.20 27.34 121.43
Light Trucks 7.11 7.57 7.33 7.96 8.00 37.96
Medium Trucks 11.57 11.87 11.26 12.79 12.53 60.02
Heavy Trucks 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.29 1.29
Offroad Vehicles 1.85 1.93 1.99 1.98 1.97 9.72
TOTAL (MM) 44.80 45.81 42.51 47.19 50.12 230.43
Population (MM) 36.31 36.67 37.10 37.53 37.97 185.57
Per Capita PTEs 1.23 1.25 1.15 1.26 1.32 1.24
Per Capita Waste PTEs Generated
1.23 1.251.15
1.26 1.32
1.24
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Per Capita PTEs 5-yr Avg: 1.24
Sources of Waste Tires
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Average for 2005 to 2009 period.
Passenger Vehicles
53%
Offroad Vehicles
4%
Heavy Trucks1%
Light Trucks16%
Medium Trucks26%
The Variables that Drive Waste Estimates
Sales of new tires
Average weight of tires/percent lost to wear
Composition of vehicle fleet
Extent of retreading
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
Model Results Subject to Uncertainty
Range when average tire weight varies ±10%
Low: 1.12 Best: 1.24 High: 1.37
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion
New Tire Weight: Top 10 Selling Passenger Vehicle Tire Sizes (2005)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0-15
16-1
717
-18
18-1
919
-20
20-2
121
-22
22-2
323
-24
24-2
525
-26
26-2
727
-28
28-2
929
-30
30-3
131
-32
32-3
333
-34
34-3
535
-36
36-3
737
-38
38-3
939
-40
40-4
141
-42
42-4
343
-44
44-4
545
-46
46-4
747
-48
48-4
949
-50
50+
New Tire Weight (lbs)
Nu
mb
er
of
Tir
e B
ran
ds
Original Equipment
Replacement
Wtd Avg New Tire Weight: 25.8 lbs.
Diversion & Disposal
2005 CIWMB estimate: 30.6 million diverted, 40.8 generated 75% diversion rate
Estimate segment of the market not included in survey Assume similar to those included with 75% diverted Use model generation estimate → 33.6 million diverted
RMA Estimates 67.99% diverted in CA National average rate is 86.6%
Review Evaluation Model Data Results Diversion