+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Date post: 18-Dec-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 4 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
27
Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models from Net Ecosystem Exchange Data Luther White and Frances White Department of Mathematics and Yiqi Luo and Tao Xu Department of Botany and Microbiology University of Oklahoma Norman,Oklahoma 73019 [email protected] September 13, 2005 Abstract The use of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data to estimate carbon transfer coefficients is investigated in the context of a deterministic com- partmental carbon sequestration system. Sensitivity and approximation properties are investigated for the underlying model initial value prob- lems. Joint probability distributions obtained by including NEE data along with corresponding synthetic NEE values generated from the model that may be compared with a priori distributions. These distributions are used to estimate individual parameters and predicted states and are compared with those obtained using only a priori information without the benefit of data. Shannon information content is introduced to measure the dependence of results on the lengths of observational intervals and provide an additional indicator of the value added by inclusion of data. 1. Introduction. Observed net ecosytem exchange (NEE) of carbon reflects a fine balance be- tween canopy photosynthetic carbon influx into and respiratory efflux out of 1
Transcript
Page 1: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Estimation of Parameters in Carbon

Sequestration Models from Net Ecosystem

Exchange Data

Luther Whiteand

Frances WhiteDepartment of Mathematics

andYiqi Luo

andTao Xu

Department of Botany and MicrobiologyUniversity of Oklahoma

Norman,Oklahoma [email protected]

September 13, 2005

Abstract

The use of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data to estimate carbontransfer coefficients is investigated in the context of a deterministic com-partmental carbon sequestration system. Sensitivity and approximationproperties are investigated for the underlying model initial value prob-lems. Joint probability distributions obtained by including NEE dataalong with corresponding synthetic NEE values generated from the modelthat may be compared with a priori distributions. These distributionsare used to estimate individual parameters and predicted states and arecompared with those obtained using only a priori information without thebenefit of data. Shannon information content is introduced to measurethe dependence of results on the lengths of observational intervals andprovide an additional indicator of the value added by inclusion of data.

1. Introduction.

Observed net ecosytem exchange (NEE) of carbon reflects a fine balance be-tween canopy photosynthetic carbon influx into and respiratory efflux out of

1

Page 2: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

an ecosystem. To quantify terrestrial carbon sinks, the biosphere-atmosphereinteractions research community has employed the eddy-covariance techniqueto measure NEE, water, and energy in more than 210 sites worldwide [1]. Ap-proximately 1000 site years of NEE data and millions of data points have beenaccumulated from the FluxNet measurements. Consequently, it appears thatthe eddy-flux database will increase exponentially in the coming years and be-comes a great resource for ecological research. Flux data, for example, havebeen used to estimate the components of net ecosystem productivity (NEP, i.e.,carbon sinks/sources) at many of the flux sites [7], to validate ecosystem models[2],[8],[10], and to characterize diurnal, seasonal, and interannual patterns [6].It will continue to be a fruitful yet challenging task for the research communityto exploit this massive database to improve our mechanistic understanding andpredictive knowledge of ecosystem processes.

The present work focuses on the utilization of NEE data and seeks to in-vestigate its usefulness in the estimation of parameters within a compartmentalcarbon sequestration model. Previously we have used other data sets that areless extensive than NEE [17]. The objective in this paper is to give a propermathematical formulation for the use of this data in a compartmental model,to compare the information added using NEE data over a priori constraints,to assess the effect on carbon predictions based on NEE data with those us-ing a priori constraints, and to determine the information value of time seriesobservations of NEE as a function of the length of the observational interval.

In this work our analysis is within framework of an underlying compartmen-tal model with seven carbon pools in which scaling factors along with initialconditions and flux distribution terms are known to various extents. We viewthe model as a deterministic initial value problem in which environmental andflux terms are presented as approximations of observed time series. Hence, weview certain coefficients as deterministic time dependent functions and are in-terested in the stability of results when those functions are perturbed. Theparameters to be estimated belong to an admissible set Qad prescribed by apriori bounds. Initially, it is assumed that all parameters in the admissible setare equally likely. Hence a uniform distribution defined as a homogeneous dis-tribution is defined on the sample space Qad. A posteriori distributions resultingfrom the incorporation of NEE data are obtained and are then compared withthis a priori homogeneous distribution [15].

Information on parameters may be deduced by means of various operationson the resulting joint probability density function (pdf). The first such operationis marginalization to obtain a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of individ-ual parameters. While initially flux and initial conditions are assumed known,the effect of uncertainty in these parameters is also included. A measure of theinformation provided by data is to compare corresponding probability intervalsbetween the a priori and the a posteriori marginal distributions for parameters.A further comparison is to compare a priori and a posteriori predicted distri-

2

Page 3: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

butions of pool sizes. In this comparison we wish to assess the effect that theinclusion of data has on the cdf of predicted likely pool sizes. Finally, we use thenotion of Shannon relative information content to compare the effect of data.

From the perspective taken here, data is associated with an observationalNEE mapping that takes the system state to a data space where measurementsare made. Our interest is to use the model and data to investigate the informa-tion associated with this mapping. Our approach is to use the model to generatesimulated data by specifying vectors of admissible parameters. By solving themodel equations we obtain associated states. Synthetic NEE output is thenconstructed by applying the observational operator to this state. Comparingthe synthetic NEE data with observed NEE data, we then generate a joint pdfon the set of admissible parameters. This pdf contains a priori informationon the parameters as well as the information from the data. From this pdfwe calculate marginal pdfs, likelihood intervals, and estimators. We may thencompare estimators based on our procedure with the generating parameter.

In Section 2 we pose the underlying model as a deterministic initial valueproblem and indicate in detail the assumptions on various coefficients. Differ-entiability, stability, approximation, and convergence results are discussed thatare important for the analysis of the problem. In Section 3 the NEE oper-ator is defined. Its differentiability and sensitivity properties with respect toperturbations of parameters are observed. The observational NEE data is alsointroduced. In Section 4 the a posteriori joint pdf function based on NEE datais given. A posteriori distributions of carbon transfer coefficients are obtainedand compared with the a priori homogeneous distributions. In addition, distri-butions of predicted pools sizes based on the NEE data are presented. Finally,results are presented that includes various degrees of uncertainty in flux andinitial value distributions. In Section 5 Shannon information content is usedand viewed as a function of the length of the observation time interval to de-termine the value added of additional data as a function of the measurementtime. Information efficiency is also introduced as the ratio of information perunit time to use as an indicator of the value of information.

2. Underlying system and approximation

In this work, we consider a seven compartment model in which the state ofvarious carbon pools at time t is expressed in terms of a column 7-vector x(t)the components of which represent the quantity of material per square meter ofnonwoody biomass, woody biomass, metabolic litter, structural litter, microbes,slow organic matter, and passive organic matter pools [17], respectively. The

3

Page 4: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

passage of carbon among these pools is modelled by an initial value problem

(2.1)d

dtx(t) = ξ(t)AoCx(t) + bu(t) for t ∈ (0, T ]

(2.2) x(0) = x0

The matrix C is a 7×7 diagonal matrix whose entries consist of the componentsof a vector c

C = diag(c)

of coefficients modelling the transfer of carbon among the various pools. Thecoefficients satisfy bounds

0 ≤ ci ≤ cmaxi

for i = 1, ..., 7 where the vector of upper bounds on the transfer parameters isgiven by

(2.3) cmax =

0.0040.00030.030.0020.02

1.5× 10−4

4.0× 10−6

.

Bounds given in cmax are posed in [17, 18, 19]. Initially, we take the set Qad ofadmissible parameters to be given by

Qad = {c : 0 ≤ ci ≤ cmaxi }

It is also of interest to allow the vectors bo and x0 to vary. Thus, we definebounds on the flux partitioning vector b of the form

bmax = (1 + bpert)bo

(2.4) bmin = (1− bpert)bo

and on the initial conditions x0 of the form

xmax0 = (1 + xpert)xo

(2.5) xmin0 = (1− xpert)xo

where the vectors bo and xo are given by

(2.6) bo =

0.250.3000000

4

Page 5: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

and

(2.7) xo =

4694100646941231385923

,

respectively. The bounds xpert and bpert are assumed to be zero initially sothat b = bo and x0 = xo. However, we will later include results allowingxpert and bpert to take on various values. In this case the admissible set ofparameters includes not only values for the transfer coefficients c but also theflux distribution vector b and initial values x0.

The vector x(t) represents the density of carbon in grams per square meterin each pool at time t. The 7× 7 matrix A gives interaction weights among thevarious pools. The matrix Ao is given by

(2.8) Ao =

−1 0 0 0 0 0 00 −1 0 0 0 0 0

0.712 0 −1 0 0 0 00.288 1 0 −1 0 0 0

0 0 0.45 0.275 −1 0.42 0.450 0 0 0.275 0.296 −1 00 0 0 0 0.004 0.03 −1

and describes the partitioning of carbon among the pools.

Environmental effects are modelled by means of a scalar-valued functiont 7→ ξ(t), cf [10] that we now discuss. The environmental function depends ontemperature and moisture effects. The temperature effects are modelled througha temperature-dependent function

(2.9) τ(t) = T(τ(t))

where

(2.10) t 7→ τ(t) = 14.8 + 14sin(2π(t + 266)

365)

is a function approximating the actual temperature time series, see Figure 1. The function τ is expressed by

(2.11) τ(t) = T(τ(t)) = (0.65)2.2(τ(t)−10)/10

see [11].

5

Page 6: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

time (days)

Figure 1: Temperature time series with approximation

6

Page 7: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

time(days)

Figure 2: Moisture time series with approximation

7

Page 8: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

The environmental function is also dependent on a function that capturesmoisture effects. The moisture time series and its approximating function isportrayed in Figure 2. The approximating function is

(2.12) m(t) = 0.27 + 0.14sin(2π(t + 46)

365)

The moisture model function m is expressed by

(2.13) m(t) = M(m(t)) ={

5m(t) when m(t) < 0.2,1 otherwise

The environmental modelling function [11] is now given as the product

(2.14) ξ(t) = τ(t)×m(t) = T(τ(t))×M(m(t)).

We note that the temperature model T is differentiable with respect to thetemperature function τ . The moisture model M is Lipschitz continuous withrespect to the moisture function m and satisfies

|M(m1(t))−M(m2(t))| ≤ 5|m1(t)− m2(t)|

for each t ∈ [0, T ]. Hence, it follows that the function ξ is only Lipshitz contin-uous with respect to t.

The carbon flux time series is portrayed in Figure 3 and is approximated bythe function

(2.15) u(t) = 8 + 7sin(2π(t + 269)

365)

The functions ξ and u all are periodic of the same period 365 and bounded.We also note that daily readings are available for approximately 5 years. Denotea common bound for ξ and u by K so that

|ξ(t)| ≤ K

and|u(t)| ≤ K

for all t ∈ [0, T ]. Also, denote by c the bound on the parameters c ∈ Qad so that

|c| ≤ c

for all c ∈ Qad.

8

Page 9: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

time(days)

Figure 3: Carbon flux time series with approximation

9

Page 10: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Given the approximations of the temperature, moisture, and flux time se-ries, the continuous behavior of solutions of the model equation with respect toperturbation of problem parameters such as ξ, u, xo, Ao, c, and b is critical.Standard estimates may be applied using classical Gronwall arguments [4]. Forexample, for the initial value problem

d

dtx(t) = A(t)x(t) + B(t)

x(0) = xo.

The entries of the matrix A(t) and the vector B(t) are continuous real-valuedfunctions defined on [0,T]. Let α and β be positive real numbers such that

‖A(t)‖ ≤ α

and‖B(t)‖ ≤ β

for all t ∈ [0, T ]. where the vector norm is the Euclidean norm on <7 and thematrix norm is the Frobenius norm [13]. It follows that for all t ∈ [0, T ] that

‖x(t)‖ ≤ ‖xo‖eαt +β

α(eαt − 1)

and‖ d

dtx(t)‖ ≤ eαt(α‖xo‖+ β).

Set q = (A,B,xo) and denote dependence of x on q by x(q). Taking the varia-tions q′ to consist of perturbations of A and B by continuous functions A′ andB′ and of the vector x′o, differentiability of the function q 7→ x(q) follows fromresults in [3].

d

dt[Dx(q)q′](t) = A(t)[Dx(q)q′](t) + A′(t)x(q)(t) + B′(t)

[Dx(q)q′](0) = x′o

It follows then that

‖x(q + q′)(t)− x(q)(t)‖ ≤ K0‖q′‖

‖ d

dtx(q + q′)(t)− d

dtx(q)(t)‖ ≤ K1‖q′‖

where the constants K0 and K1 are independent of q ∈ Q where Q is a set ofparameters that are bounded in the suitable spaces.

Remark 2.1. Initially we are interested only in perturbations with respect tothe parameter c with bo and x0 constant. However, these results show thatresults are stable with respect to changes in bo and x0 and ξ and u.

10

Page 11: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

The bound for the solution x(t) is given by

(2.16) |x(c)(t)| ≤ (|x0|+ |b||Ao|c )e|Ao|cT − |b|

|Ao|c

Remark 2.2. The Frechet differentiability of the solution with respect toc, b, and x0, see [3]. Frechet differentiability with respect to the functionsξ and u also are immediate. However, because of the Lipschitz continuity of ξwith respect to m only Lipschitz continuity of the solution with respect to mholds. The Frechet derivative satisfies the equation

(2.17)d

dt[Dx(c)] = ξ(t)Ao{C[Dx(c)] + diag(x(c))}

Remark 2.3. The differentiability with respect to the above parameters alongwith the Lipschitz continuity of M with respect to m implies the continuousdependence of the solution x with respect to τ , m, and u as well as c, x0, and b.

A simple Euler’s method is used for approximation. The difference equationsare obtained with h = T/N as

xj+1 − xj

h= AoCξjxj + buj .

with iteration

(2.18) xj+1 = [I + hAoC]xj + hbuj

for j = 0, 1, ...., N − 1.

Remark 2.4. Under assumptions of continuity for the functions ξ and u, clas-sical approximation results [14] show that solutions of the difference approxima-tions converge to the solution of the initial value problem (2.1)-(2.5) uniformlywith respect to parameters in Qad. The global convergence rate is of order O(h)because the environmental function t 7→ ξ(t) is only Lipschitz continuous andnot differentiable. However, because of form of M and the moisture functiont 7→ m(t) higher order results hold for time subintervals.

Remark 2.5. From the above, the differentiability of (2.7) is straight forward.For example, the derivative with respect to c is given by

[Dcx]j+1 = [I + hA0C][Dcx]j + hA0diag(xj).

We refer to [17, 18, 19] for other formulas and adjoint equations expressing thederivatives.

11

Page 12: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

3. The NEE observation operator and data.

NEE measurements indicate the change in the total carbon of the system perunit time. From these measurements we wish to obtain information of thetransfer coefficients c. Accordingly, setting

φ = [1 1 1 1 1 1 1]∗

where the superscript ∗ denotes vector transpose, the observational model forNEE is given by

N(c)(t) =d

dtφ∗x(c)(t).

In terms of the system (2.1)-(2.5) it is convenient to express the NEE operatoras

N(c)(t) = φ∗[ξ(t)AoCx(c)(t) + bu(t)].

A similar formula holds for the finite difference approximation

N(c)i = φ∗[ξiAoCx(c)i + bui].

To obtain a measure of the sensitivity of NEE to perturbations of the pa-rameter c, we consider the derivative of c 7→ N(c)(t) expressed by the rowvector

DcN(c)(t) = ξ(t)φ∗Ao[CDcx(c)(t) + diag(x(c)(t))]

with the corresponding expression for the discrete case

DcN(c)i = ξiφ∗A0[CDcx(c)i + diag(x(c)i)].

SinceN(co + c′)(t)−N(co)(t) ≈ [DcN(co)(t)]c′,

it follows that

V (c, c′)(t) = |N(co + c′)(t)−N(co)(t)|2 ≈ c′∗[DcN(co)(t)]]∗[DcN(co)(t)]c′

with the obvious corresponding discrete expression. In Figure 4 is representedthe graphs of the mapping t 7→ V (c, c′)(t) for the case in which c′ = cmax withT = 1830. Taking the L2(0, T ) norm of V (c, c′) of each of the partial derivativesyields the vector,

Global Sensitivity = [0.78, 0.30, 0.06, 0.39, 0.27, 0.12, 0.0039].

This indicates that NEE is sensitive to perturbations in the parameters c1, c4, c2, c5, c6, c3, and c7

in that order.

The NEE data that we use is portrayed in Figure 5. It is notable that dailydata is available over a 4 year period with the exception of a couple of gaps.

12

Page 13: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Time (days)

c1

c2

c4

c5

c3

c6

c7

Figure 4: Comparison of NEE operator sensitivies

13

Page 14: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 500 1000 1500−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

time(days)

NEE data

Figure 5: NEE 98 data

14

Page 15: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

4. The joint probability density function, marginal-ization, reduction of likelihood intervals.

We introduce the fit-to-data functional in the continuous case as the usualquadratic criterion

(4.1) J(c) =12

∫ T

0

[N(c)(t)−No(t)]2dt

to measure the distance NEE output associated with a transfer coefficient vec-tor c from data No(t). In our application since there are gaps in the data weintroduce the discrete functional, again using J(c),

(4.2) J(c) =12

Nobs∑

i=1

(N(c)ji−Noi)2.

The sum is over those times tji at which measurements are available. Thus,the fit-to-data functional is defined over the set of admissible parameters Qad

described in (2.3)-(2.7) and assigns an error between a simulated NEE functionN(c)ji associated with a parameter c and the observed data values {Noi : i =1, ..., Nobsi. At this point it is assumed that xpert = 0 and bpert = 0. We introducea probability density function (pdf) by introducing the function

(4.3) f(c) = C exp[−J(c)].

Using this approach we may introduce probabilistic notions to interpret re-sults in addition to the minimization approach used in least squares estimation[17,?, 18]. Hence, the parameter space Qad is a sample space over which f is de-fined. The constant C is a normalization constant used to scale the pdf to unityover Qad. By integrating f over subsets of Qad we obtain the probability thatparameters belong to those subsets given the data. We also think of functions ofthe sample parameters as random variables defined over Qad. The pdf containsall the information in the problems from the data, the model, and the a prioriconstraints. Our objective is to assess the information added to our knowledgebased on the data. In this work we consider how likelihood intervals of param-eters are reduced by the marginalizing the pdf compared the a priori pdf forparameters. This gives information on how our knowledge of the value of theparameters has increased by including data. Our second measure is to considerthe pool size distributions predicted based on a posteriori distribution joint pdfas compared with the predictions without the benefit of the data based on thea priori information. Since NEE data is available for approximately four yearsand the approximating time series for temperature, moisture, and CO2 flux isover five years (in fact can be extended indefinitely from the functional form).We also make predictions of future NEE values.

15

Page 16: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Having formed the joint pdf f defined on Qad, the task remains to extractinformation contained in the joint pdf concerning the parameters. In this workwe use randomly generated simulations and compare the associated NEE withthe data. Since we are interested in the comparison with a priori distributionswithout the benefit of the data, we retain all simulated values. Thus, we donot use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods [?] to capture thoseparameters of most significance.

0 1 2 3 4 5

x 10−3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

c1

0 0.5 1 1.5

x 10−4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

c2

0 0.5 1 1.5

x 10−3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

c4

0 1 2 3

x 10−3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

c5

Figure 6: Marginal cumulative distribution functions for c1, c2, c4, and c5 in1/days

The likelihood ratios determined from marginal cumulative distributions withthe benefit of data and without are the following

Likelihood Ratio (20, 80) = [0.5, 0.96, 0.8, 0.65, 0.72, 0.93, 1.0]

The correlation coefficient between the Likelihood Ratio(20,80) and the Globalsensitivity is -0.83

The previous results assume a fixed known value for the flux distribution band the initial condition x0 vectors. The stability results in Section 2 indicate

16

Page 17: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 0.01 0.02 0.030

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

c3

0 0.5 1

x 10−4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

c6

0 2 4

x 10−6

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

c7

Figure 7: Marginal cumulative distribution functions for c3, c6 and c7 in 1/days

17

Page 18: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 50000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

x1

6500 7000 7500 8000 85000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

x2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

x3

0 1000 2000 3000 40000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

x4

Figure 8: Marginal cumulative distribution functions forx1, x2 x3, and x4 in g/cm2

18

Page 19: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 1000 20000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

x5

1000 1500 2000 25000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

x6

910 920 930 9400

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

x7

Figure 9: Marginal cumulative distribution functions for x5, x6 and x7 in g/cm2

19

Page 20: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

the differentiability of solutions of the model equations and of the NEE operatorwith respect to b and x0. As an experiment we allowed errors in b and x0 byadjusting bpert and xpert in setting bounds on b and x0. Results for c1 and x1

are portrayed in Figures 10 and 11. These figures indicate again that resultsare relatively pretty stable with respect to perturbations. However, as to beexpected, results vary substantially as the magnitude of the perturbations isallowed to increase.

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

x 10−3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

uniform

Figure 10: Comparison of c1 marginal cdfs with errors in bo and x0 in 1/days

5. Information content and dependence on obser-vation interval length.

In the previous section an entire data set of NEE observations is used. In thissection we investigate the dependence of results on observation interval lengthT. It is convenient to introduce the notion of Shannon’s relative informationcontent. Denote the a priori distribution by c 7→ π(c). For the purposes ofthis work we take π to be uniform distribution defined over Qad. It is againassumed that b and x0 are known exactly. The information content [15] of the

20

Page 21: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0% 10%

20%

30% 40%

50%

uniform

Figure 11: Comparison of x1 marginal cdfs with errors in bo and x0 in g/cm2

21

Page 22: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

a posteriori joint distribution c 7→ f(c) relative to the uniform distribution isgiven by

I =∫

Qad

f(c)log(f(c)π(c)

)dc.

Since we are interest in relative values and the distribution c 7→ π(c) is aconstant over Qad , we consider

I =∫

Qad

f(c)log(f(c))dc.

Recall that

J(c; T ) =12

∫ T

0

(N(c)(t)−Nobs(t))2dt

where we include dependence of the fit-to-data functional on the length of theobservation interval T. The joint pdf is defined as

f(c;T ) = K(T )exp[−J(c; T )]

withK(T ) = {

Qad

exp[−J(c; T )]dc]−1}.

It is clear that relative information content depends on T, and we indicate thisdependence by

I(T ) =∫

Qad

f(c;T )log(f(c;T ))dc.

The differentiability is clear, and we begin by noting that

∂TJ(c; T ) = [N(c(T )−No(T )]2.

It easily follows that

d

dTK(T ) = K(T )2

Qad

exp[−J(c;T )][N(c)(T )−No(T )]2dc

so thatd

dTK(T ) = K(T )

Qad

f(c;T )][N(c)(T )−No(T )]2dc

SetV (T ) =

Qad

f(c; T )][N(c)(T )−No(T )]2dc

so thatd

dTK(T ) = K(T )V (T ).

Continuing we find

∂Tf(c, T ) = f(c, T ){V (T )− [N(c)(T )−No(T )]2}

22

Page 23: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

Differentiating I(T ) we have

d

dTI(T ) =

Qad

{1 + log[f(c, T )]}f(c, T ){V (T )− [N(c(T )−No(T )]2}dc

Noting that∫

Qad

f(c, T ){V (T )− [N(c)(T )−No(T )]2}dc = 0,

we then obtain

d

dTI(T ) = V (T )I(T )−

Qad

f(c, T )log[f(c, T )][N(c)(T )−No(T )]2dc

establishing an expression for the derivative of the information content.

The results of numerical studies are portrayed in Figures 12 and 13. InFigure 12 we see that the relative information content increasing pretty muchmonotonically as an increasing percentage of the data set used. This is tobe expected. However, the rate of increase appears to diminish. One wouldexpect with the presence of noise in the measurements that information wouldnot increase indefinitely. Thus, we consider the information per cost indicatedby I(T )/T giving the information per unit time as a measure of informationefficiency. Of course any function of cost could be used. The division by Tonly used as an illustration. Figure 13 indicates a decreasing data efficiencywith time. Certainly, data over longer periods in useful, however the relativeincrease is most dramatic at earlier times since little is known.

23

Page 24: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

× 10%

Relative information content as a function of the percentage of data used

Figure 12: Relative information content as a function of the percent of the datarecord

24

Page 25: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

× 10%

Relative information content/time as a function of the percentage of data used

Figure 13: Relative information content per unit time as a function as a functionof the percent of data record

25

Page 26: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

References

[1] Baldocchi, D.D. 2003. Assessing the eddy covariance technique for evaluat-ing carbon dioxide exchange rates of ecosystems: past, present and future.Global Change Biol. 9:479-492.

[2] Clark, K. L., W. P. Cropper, and H. L. Gholz. 2001. Evaluation of modeledcarbon fluxes for a slash pine ecosystem: SPM2 simulations compared toeddy flux measurements. Forest Sciences. 47:52-59.

[3] J.Dieudonne, Foundations of Modern Analysis, Academic Press, NewYork,1960.

[4] G.Duvaut and J.L.Lions, Inequalities in Mechanics and Physics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1976.

[5] Goulden, M. L., J. W. Munger, S. M. Fan, B. C. Daube, and S. C. Wofsy.1996. Exchange of carbon dioxide by a deciduous forest: response to inter-annual climate variability. Science. 271:1576-1578.

[6] Hui, D., Y. Luo, and G. Katul. 2003. Partitioning inter-annual variability innet ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and function changes.Tree Physiology. 23:433-442.

[7] Kowalski, A. S., Sartore, M., Burlett, R., Berbigier, P., and Loustau, D.2003. The annual carbon budget of a French pine forest (Pinus pinaster)following harvest. Global Change Biol. 9 (7):1051-1065.

[8] Law, B. E., M. Williams, P. M. Anthoni, et al. 2000. Measuring and mod-eling seasonal variation of carbon dioxide and water vapour exchange of aPinus ponderosa forest subject to soil water deficit. Global Change Biol. 6(6):613-630.

[9] D.G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, Wiley, New York,1969.

[10] Luo Y., B. Medlyn, D. Hui, D. Ellsworth, J. Reynolds, and G. Katul. 2001.Gross primary productivity in Duke forest: modeling synthesis of CO2experiment and eddy-flux data. Ecological Applications. 11:239-252.

[11] Y.L. Luo, L. White, J. Canadell, E. DeLucia, D.Ellsworth, A. Finzi, J.Lichter, W. Schlesinger,” Sustainability of terrestrial carbon sequestration:A case study in Duke Forest with an inversion approach,” Global Biogeo-chemical Cycles, In press.

[12] C. Robert and G. Casella, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer, NewYork, 1999.

[13] G. Stewart, Introduction to Matrix Computations, Academic Press, NewYork, 1973.

26

Page 27: Estimation of Parameters in Carbon Sequestration Models ...

[14] J. Stoer and R. Burlisch, Numerical Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York,1980.

[15] A. Tarantola,Inverse Problem Theory, SIAM, Philadelphia, 2005.

[16] Valentini, R., G. Matteucci, A. J. Dolman, et al. 2000. Respiration as themain determinant of European forests carbon balance. Nature. 404:861-865.

[17] L. White and Y. Luo,”Model-Based Assessment for Terrestrial Carbon Pro-cesses: Implications for Sampling Strategies in FACE Experiments”, Ap-plied Mathematics and Computation, to appear.

[18] L. White, Y. Luo, and T. Xu, ”Carbon Sequestration: Inversion of FACEData and Prediction,” Applied Mathematics and Computation, pp.783-800,2005.

[19] L. White and Y. Luo,”Estimation of carbon transfer coefficients using DukeForest free-air CO2 enrichment data,” Applied Mathematics and Computa-tion, pp 101-120, 2002.

27


Recommended