ET2050 Baseline Scenario and Trends

Michael WegenerSpiekermann & Wegener (S&W)

ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012

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Baseline scenario

The ET2050 baseline scenario will be a status-quoor business-as-usual scenario which assumes • the most likely continuation of exogenous trends,

including saturation effects,• the general continuation of policy practices used

in the recent past until 2030 or 2050.

The baseline scenario will assume a future develop-ment without major shocks.If there are large differences between possible devel-opments, the baseline scenario will steer a middlecourse between the extremes.

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Scenario definitions

Because in ET2050 the scenarios will be assessed byexperts and with models, it is important that theyare defined in terms of model input, not output.

Model inputs are assumptions, such as: • assumptions about exogenous developments,• assumptions about EU or national policies.

Model outputs are impacts, such as:• regional population/economic development,• trade flows and transport volumes,• energy consumption, CO2 emissions.

Expected impacts should therefore not be part of thescenario definitions.

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Baseline scenario: trends

Based on the criteria defined above, the eight "VitalSigns of the Baseline 2010-2050" listed in BaselineScenario Narratives should be re-phrased for thebaseline scenario definition:

1 Population: Population development should be entered in the form of migration policy.

2 Urbanisation: Growth of cities is an impact of economies of scale and transport policy.

3 Economy: Total economic development of Europe is exogenous.

4 Innovation: Innovation should be addressed in the form of R&D investment.

(continued)

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Baseline scenario: trends (cont'd)

5 Energy: Energy consumption is a function of exo-genous energy prices and energy policy.

6 Climate change: CO2 emissions are a fucntion of energy consumption and technology.

7 Transport: Transport volume is a function of trade flows and transport policy.

8 Reforms blocked: This assumption should be made explicit by type of policy.

The "History of European Decline" scenario is an inter-esting think piece but not suited as baseline scenariobecause of its too negative character. It may perhapsbe used as a "worst-case" exploratory scenario.

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Exploratory scenarios

In addition to the criteria for the definition of scenariosproposed above, also other criteria might be applied todefine the exploratory scenarios:• They should be differentiated in space, i.e. address

the European, macro-regional, national and regional scale.• They should be differentiated in time, i.e. account for

different phases of development of countries/regions.• They could be combined with alternative framework assumptions than in the baseline scenario, such as Global integration, Fortress Europe, Energy scarcity or Euro crisis (see Wegener, 2012).

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Integrated phased strategies

In the exploratory scenarios, integrated strategiesshould be examined:• The strategies should be integrated, i.e. combine

policies from several sectoral policy fields to exploit synergies between them.• The strategies should be differentiated in space and time to account for the different needs of individual member states in different phases of their economic and social development.

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Biosca, O., Ulied, A. (2012): ET2050 Baseline Scenario 2030 Narratives. Draft 14/03/2012. Barcelona: MCRIT S.L.,http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/Bru_Meeting/ET2050_BASELINE_NARRATIVES.doc

Biosca, O., Ulied, A. (2012): ET2050 Baseline Scenario 2030 Sectoral Trends. Draft 14/03/2012. Barcelona: MCRIT S.L., http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/Bru_Meeting/ET2050_ BASELINE_SECTORAL_TRENDS.doc

Wegener, M. (2012): ET2050 Comments on the discussion paper about prospective scenarios following the Barcelona debate. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research, http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/ TechNotes/ET2050_DiscNote10_MWegener_v130112.doc

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