Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict

Eric KaufmannBirkbeck College, University of London

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

Ethnic Fractionalization

ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups

Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups.

• Tanzania: many groups, each with small share. High ELF.• N. Ireland or Sri Lanka: two big groups with big share, plus a

few smaller ones. Middling ELF.• Japan, Botswana: one big group with most, and a few small

minorities with small numbers. Low ELF.

Ethnic Fractionalization (Fearon-Laitin 2003)

ELF & International Conflict: Theoretical Perspectives

Realism – external conflict deflects attention from elite illegitimacy (Van Evera 1994); helps to provide cohesion in fractious states : There are many in our times who ...[wish]... that this heated passion that is among us might be deflected into some war with our neighbors – Montaigne, 16th c. More internally pacified and united states less aggressive.

Theories…

Constructivism/symbolism: nations constructed in ethnically diverse contexts may opt for universalistic ‘missionary’ nationalism (Roshwald 2006; Kumar 2003).

Dominant Minorities and Ideology

• USSR: expansionist socialism (Stalin, Trosky, Mikoyan…). 50% Russian.

• Iran: Islamist mission (Ahmedinedjad). 45-50% Persian, 92% Shia.

• Sudan: Islamist. 5% Arab, 70% Muslim• Iraq: 22% Sunni, 75-80% Arab, 97% Muslim• Syria: 11% Alawi, 90% Arab, 87% Muslim• S. Africa: 18% Xhosa, 80% Black African

19th c USA: Missionary and Ethnic Nationalism

• America is "possessed of an idea capable of infinite expansion. This idea is that of individual liberty …Our Gospel was meant for expansion… the world needs it, and it is our duty to give it to the world.“ – Rev. H. Carroll, 1898

• “When you shall have extended your dominion over the states of Mexico and Central America, you will have added twelve million of a population, for the most part perfectly imbecile.” – John Bell, 1857

Xenophobia and Anti-Imperialism

• USA (Love 1997; Beisner 1968); Russia, Britain, Turkey

• Saideman and Ayres (2008) – Diverse ex-communist states more expansionist and irredentist;

• Hungarians, Croats, Romanians, Russians reject irredentism, worrying it will bring in minorities

American Missionary Nationalism

Measuring Interstate Conflict

• Unit is the Dyad: i.e. France-Malawi 1991, France-Malawi 1992, France-Iraq 1992…

• Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) - 1748 events of 30,144, 1945-92

• KOSIMO – 3142 events of 42,843, 1945-97• war, violent crisis, nonviolent crisis, and latent

crisis (KOSIMO only)• Latent crisis: UK v Spain over Gibraltar since

1964, US v Cuba since 1962

Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1992State1 State2Albania SerbiaArmenia AzerbaijanBurma (Myanmar) ThailandCroatia SerbiaFrance SerbiaFrance IraqGermany SerbiaGuinea-Bissau SenegalIndia Sri LankaIndia Papua New GuineaIran IraqIran United Arab EmiratesIraq KuwaitItaly SerbiaKorea, Democratic Pe Korea, Republic ofMalaysia SingaporeMoldova RussiaRussia EstoniaRussia UkraineRussia GeorgiaRussia SwedenSerbia GreeceSerbia TurkeySpain SerbiaUnited Kingdom SerbiaUnited Kingdom IraqUnited States PeruUnited States SerbiaUnited States Iraq

Argentina United KingdomArmenia AzerbaijanBolivia ChileCanada FranceChad LibyaChile ArgentinaChina Korea, Republic ofChina LaosChina IndiaChina Vietnam, Socialist RColombia VenezuelaCroatia SerbiaEcuador PeruFrance MauritiusFrance LibyaGreece TurkeyHonduras El SalvadorIndia BangladeshIndia PakistanIran Saudi ArabiaIran United Arab EmiratesIran IraqIraq Kuwait

KOSIMO disputes (includes latent), 1992

Hypothesis: Diversity and Interstate Conflict

• Ethnically fractionalized states too consumed with internal civil war when born

• Once consolidated, search for unifying ideologies (liberalism, socialism, pan-Arabism, pan-Islamism, pan-Africanism)

• External conflict unifies across lines of ethnicity and sect (i.e. Iran)

• True also for major powers (USA, USSR)

State Age vs. State Age x Ethnic Fractionalization

Korea, Democratic PeKorea, Democratic PeKorea, Republic ofKorea, Republic ofKorea, Republic ofKorea, Republic ofKorea, Republic ofKorea, Republic ofJapanJapanTunisiaTunisiaTunisiaPortugalPortugalPortugalPortugalPortugalPortugalItalyPortugalPortugalItalyItalyItalyPortugalPortugalItalyPortugalPortugalItalyItaly PolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandPolandGreeceGreeceGreeceGreeceGreeceGreeceGreece YemenYemenYemenYemenYemenNetherlandsNetherlandsNetherlandsNetherlandsNetherlandsNetherlands AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaitiHaiti NorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayNorwayGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyGermany

FinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmark ParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguay Australia LibyaLibyaLibyaLibyaLibyaLibyaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina JamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaJamaicaEgyptEgyptEgyptEgypt IrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIreland RwandaRwandaRwandaRwandaRwandaRwandaRwandaHungaryHungaryHungaryHungaryHungaryHungaryHungaryHungaryHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasHondurasSwedenSwedenSwedenSweden El SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl SalvadorEl Salvador CubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCubaCuba BangladeshBangladeshUruguayUruguayUruguayUruguayUruguayUruguayUruguayUruguay Vietnam, Socialist RCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta RicaCosta Rica LesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentina MongoliaMongolia SwazilandSwazilandSwazilandSwazilandSwazilandSwazilandSwazilandSwazilandFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFranceFrance BulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaBulgariaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaRomaniaTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited KingdomUnited Kingdom BotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussiaRussia ZimbabweZimbabweZimbabwe

Dominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicDominican RepublicNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaNicaraguaThailandThailand

MoroccoMoroccoMoroccoMoroccoMoroccoMorocco JordanJordanJordanJordanVenezuelaVenezuelaVenezuelaVenezuelaVenezuelaVenezuela GuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemalaGuatemala PanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanamaPanama Burma (Myanmar)Burma (Myanmar)IsraelIsraelIsraelIsraelIsraelChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileChileUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpainSpain IraqIraqIraqIraqIraqIraqIraqIraqSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexico SyriaSyriaBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil MalaysiaMalaysiaBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgiumBelgium CanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanada GuyanaGuyanaGuyanaGuyanaGuyanaGuyanaGuyanaGuyanaSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerland BeninBeninBeninBeninBeninBeninMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritaniaMauritiusNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoTrinidad & TobagoGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeru NepalEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombia Burkina FasoBurkina FasoBurkina FasoBurkina FasoBurkina FasoBurkina FasoBurkina FasoIranIranIranIranIranIranIran KuwaitKuwaitKuwaitKuwaitKuwaitSudanSudanSudanSudanSudanZambiaZambiaZambiaZambiaZambiaSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalSenegalUnited Arab EmiratesAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMali MozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueMozambiqueGambiaGambiaGambiaGambiaGambiaGambiaGambiaGambiaSierra LeoneSierra LeoneSierra LeoneSierra LeoneSierra LeoneAfghanistanAfghanistan ChadChadChadChadCote D'IvoireCote D'IvoireCote D'IvoireCote D'IvoireCote D'IvoireCote D'IvoireEthiopiaEthiopiaEthiopiaEthiopia LebanonLebanonLebanonLebanonBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBolivia Central African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuCentral African RepuNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauIndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaIndiaIndia MalawiMalawiMalawiMalawiMalawiGhanaGhanaGhanaGhanaGhanaGhanaGhanaGhanaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaKenyaGabonGabonGabonGabonGabonGabonGabonTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoTogoCameroonCameroonCameroonCameroonSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaSouth AfricaLiberiaLiberiaLiberiaLiberiaLiberiaLiberiaLiberiaLiberia UgandaUgandaUgandaUgandaUgandaCongo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)Congo (Zaire)TanzaniaTanzaniaTanzaniaTanzaniaTanzaniaTanzaniaTanzania

Papua New Guinea

0.0

001

.000

2.0

003

.000

4.0

005

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Established Diverse States and Founding Dates, 1990

Eth

nic

Frac

tiona

lizat

ion*

(1/F

ound

ing

Dat

e)

State Founding Date

Table 1. Domestic Ethnic Predictors of International Conflict (Base Model)

MID 1 MID 2 KOSIMO 1

KOSIMO 2

Ethnic Fractionalization (combined)

-.032 (.003)***

-.951 (.146)***

-.030 (.004)***

-1.529 (.146)***

State Founding Dates (combined)

0.000 (0.000)

.0003 (.0000)***

Ethnic Fractionalization*State Dates

1780.538 (280.621) ***

2981.192 (279.393)***

constant .087 (.003)***

-.084 (.144)

1.02 (.003)***

1.281 (.141)***

Pseudo R2 .003 .007 .002 .039

N 29,591 27,773 36,635 34,086

* p<.05; ** p<.01; ***p<.001

Predictors of Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1946-1992Coefficient S.E. z-score

Distance Between States -0.77*** 0.06 -13.9Military Power Balance -0.33 0.29 -1.14Different Cold War Bloc 0.37* 0.17 2.16Different Cold War Bloc*Different Civilization 0.59** 0.20 2.88Different Civilization -1.10*** 0.29 -3.76Lower of Two Democracy Scores -0.15*** 0.02 -9.53

Lower of Democracy Scores*Different Civilization 0.06** 0.02 3.38Shared Border 1.26*** 0.27 4.63Shared Border*Different Civilization 0.31 0.21 1.46Major Power 0.73** 0.28 2.63Modernization 5.50*** 0.81 6.78Modernization*Different Civilization 1.36 0.87 1.56Years since last MID -0.57*** 0.03 -22.06midyrs1 (spline 1) -0.01*** 0.00 -11.62midyrs2 (spline 2) 0.00*** 0.00 9.09midyrs3 (spline 3) 0.00*** 0.00 -6.19Eastern European -1.45*** 0.16 -8.81Sub-Saharan African -0.52* 0.26 -1.99Elevation difference (combined score) 0.00 0.00 0.32Noncontiguous states (joint score) 0.64*** 0.08 7.7State founding dates (joint) 0.01*** 0.00 6.4log Land Area (kms) 0.11*** 0.03 4.27log Population Density 0.26*** 0.03 8.02Ethnic fractionalization state 1 -31.55*** 5.66 -5.58Ethnic fractionalization state 2 -40.02*** 5.74 -6.97Same religion 0.09 0.16 0.57Ex-Colony (combined score) 0.38*** 0.08 5.03

Ethnic fractionalization state 1*(1/state f. date 1) 56934.66*** 10719.67 5.31

Ethnic fractionalization state 2*(1/state f. date 2) 75562.33*** 11063.57 6.83

Major power score*combined ethnic fractionalization -0.39 0.31 -1.27

Major power score*major power ethnic fractionalization 0.88 0.64 1.37Ethnic fractionalization (combined)*shared border 0.80*** 0.23 3.54

Sub-Saharan Africa*ethnic fractionalization (combined) 0.73*** 0.20 3.71constant -36.22*** 4.56 -7.94

Pseudo R2 .586N 27,701

ELF & Conflict: Similar Relationships

State Date

s

Ethnic

Frac 1

EF 1*(1/St

atedate

)

Ethnic

Frac 2

EF 2*(1/St

atedate

)

Majo

r Power*Its

EF

Majo

r Power*EF C

ombined

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Ethnic Fractionalization and MID, 1945-92, (z-score)

State Date

s

Ethnic

Frac 1

EF 1*(1/St

atedate

)

Ethnic

Frac 2

EF 2*(1/St

atedate

)

Majo

r Power*Its

EF

Majo

r Power*EF C

ombined

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Ethnic Fractionalization and KOSIMO, 1945-97, (z-score)

BRICS: Homogeneous and Peaceful?

• China: 92% Han• Russia: 80% Russian• Turkey, 70-75% Turkish• India: 80% Hindu (20-

40% Hindi)• Brazil: 95% Portuguese

speaking (50% white)• *Indonesia: 40%

Javanese, 87% Muslim