30
EU Migration Crisis 2015 Philip Martin: [email protected]
Highlights • Europe: continent of migration & social welfare
– 10% of world’s people, 25% of world’s countries, 35% of international migrants, 50% of social welfare spending
• Net migration: 500,000 to 700,000 a year, versus 1 million+ a year in US. Half to Germany & UK
• EU leaders: Europe needs migrants, but EU shouldselect migrants, not migrants select Europe – Dublin: asylum seekers should apply in the first EU
country they reach, and this decision is binding on all EUmember states
– Schengen: once inside Schengen, no border checks on foreigners or nationals
– Blue Card & foreign students: make it easier for foreign professionals to enter with families, graduates to stay
Migration crisis 1992: 438,000 to Germany from Balkans. Dublin & national reforms: require visas & carrier sanctions, safe third countries, peace in Balkans
EU migration 2012: Non-EU arrivals (green) 1.4 million or 4,000 a day, asylum applicants (orange) 1,000 a day,
irregular (blue) 200 a day
Europe needs immigrants: but EU member states want to select migrants, not migrants selecting a European country
3,700 Blue cards issued in 2012; 70% by Germany; 15,300 in 2013,
93% by Germany to foreigners already in Germany (few global
searches)
Arab spring 2011: Yemen, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Egypt Displacement and civil war in Libya, Yemen, and Syria
I AL: n n
ICILY
TUN Lo
LIBYA
Libya-Lampedusa 200 miles. Smugglers give phones
2014: focus on Syrians & Africans crossing the Mediterranean to Italy
2015: focus shifts to Syrians in Turkey Syria had 22 million people in 2010. Over 4 million were registered refugees outside Syria in summer 2015 Where to spend money? UNHCR: $7 billion in 2015 for 14 million refugees Germany: $7 billion for 1 million
Merkel: August 25, 2015. Dublin regs for Syrians are
suspended (Germany will not return Syrians to Austria)
Greek islands are close to Turkey
Migrants in Turkey buy life jackets & boats to get to
Greek islands. Everything is for sale. France’s honorary consul in Bodrum resigned
after she sold rubber boats to migrants
13 miles from Bodrum to Kos
From Greek islands to Piraeus by ferry
Migrant route to Germany
M Hamburg
' GERMANY
TURKEY
SOOkm
200 miles
Source: Europol
From Greece via Balkans to Hungary, Austria, & Germany
Greek-Macedonia border
From Hungary to Austria
Over 12,200 migrants arrived in Munich, Sat Sept 12, 2015
• -..
)
European Migrant Crisis 201 s Countriu of Origin .....,..,of .-,_.wt\lth IHlt<llora1)'twn-" 1 JH.aryMdleJun1101s
7'.000 ........ lS.000
10.000
c...n. ... - ......... .IOONll.-__ _
Countries of Destination
.... f)OK<flll
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Big 5 origins: Syria, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Eritrea, Albania
Koenigsberg key allocates asylum seekers to states based on their pop & income. States & cities pay for housing and food
Germans helping asylum seekers: 2015
Arson attacks on migrant housing
Hungarian government ad in Lebanon newspapers 9/15
As Germany braces for the arrival of up to a million migrants this year, it is stepping up efforts to deport rejected asylum seekers from the Balkans, whose requests are almost always denied. Asylum applications Top 10 countries of origin
55,587
38,245
33,824
20,864
13,120
13,629
10,244
6,039
4,183
3,977 I
Acceptance rate Over total decisions made
Syria 88.5~~
Kosovo 0.3%
Serbia 0.1%
Afghanistan
Iraq 89.0%
Macedonia 1 I 0.4%
Eritrea 80.4~~
Pakistan
Nigeria 1 5.8%
Balkan nationals are 40% of asylum applicants; few recognized as refugees
Challenge: from refugee to employee. Ger: 81 mil pop; 43 million employed; 6.2% U rate. How fast can Germany absorb 500,000 new workers?
Britain
Italy MMt export Manutac:nnd
OOocl•. inCluding fHhion Mmnirnport Oll91'1dgn TatalV-.ol ......... ,,_.,..,,
EUROPE'S TRADE TIES WITH RUSSI.A
GREEK IEIT CRISIS ====---
2010-2014
AS OF THE ENO OF 2014, GREEK DEBT TO GOP RA TIO WAS AT 175 5%
EU challenges 2015: Russia-Ukraine, Greece, migrants
Germany took in more migrants last year than any other European country and saw support for an anti-immigrant party rise. But the support remains well below the level in Denmark, according to polls.
25%
20 Danish People's Party
15
---·
10
5
Alternative for Germany
. I I I I I I I , ,11 I I I I I I I I I , ,1 1 I I I I I I I I I , , 201 3 4 5 16
Sources: Most recent lnfratest Dimap poll of 1,027 people conducted Jan. 12-13; margin of error,+/- 1.4-3.1 percentage points (Alternative for Germany); Most recent Epinion/Danmarks Rad io poll of 1,692 people over 18 years old conducted Jan.13-19, margin of error: +/-2.4 percentage points (People's Party)
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