E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

Free Webinar - 17 July 2013 -1-2pm

Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your headsetYou can ask questions in writing in the chat panel

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

Free Webinar – 17 July 2013 -1-2pm

Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your headsetYou can ask questions in writing in the chat panel

WELCOME to the 7th FREE webinar

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

ABOUT THE WEBINAR SERIES

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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

EU Lobbying, Ethics & Transparency: "Do"-s and

"Don't"-s

Risk Regulation in the EU: Sectors, Advocacy and the Precautionary

Principle

Regulatory Affairs Explained: What you

must know about implementing & delegated acts

How to Master EU Interest Representation:

The BM guide to EU lobbying best practices

7 Tips for Effective EU Public Affairs: Practical

ideas to reach the highest impact for your issue

Digital Communication in EU Affairs: How to master Twitter, Linkedin & social

media in public affairs

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

GOOD TO KNOW

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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

Turn off your Outlook, Skype and other programs

Ask via chat in the bottom left chat box

Questions will be answered during & after the presentation

Presentation will take approx. 40 mins, followed by Q&A

The webinar is being RECORDED

Recording & PPT will be made available within 3 days

Transcript will be available within 1 week

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

SPEAKER & ORGANISER

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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

SPEAKERDavid Earnshaw

CEO of Burson-Marsteller

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

SPEAKER MODERATORDavid Earnshaw András BANETH

CEO of Burson-Marsteller Director – European Training Academy

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

1-day EU training workshops on lobbying, communication & decision-making

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N S

THE PRESENTATION

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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and

beyond?

European Training Academy, 17.07.2013

David Earnshaw

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

Contents

• The timeline

• The positions• The process the jigsaw puzzle• The people

• Some other issues

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

Last EP plenary session

European political parties

nominate Presidential candidates

FEBRUARY 2014

23/24 April 2014

22-25 MAY

2 JUNE – 26 JUNE

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PENTECOST

5-9 JUNE

22/9/2013 GERMAN ELECTION

ASCENSION26-30 MAY

Constituent meetings of

EP party groups

1-3 JULY

EP Constituent

session (election of EP officer-holders)

26-27 JUNE

EUROPEAN COUNCIL

Nomination of

Commission President

14-17 JULY

15-18/9/2014

EP Session: Election of

Commission President

EP plenary session

01/9/2014

CONFIRMATION HEARINGS OF

COMMISSIONERS-DESIGNATE

OCTOBER 2014

October plenary:

investiture of

Commission, 2014-2019

1/11/2014 - 2019

2014-2019 Commission enters office

1/12/2014

New President of

European Council enters

office

Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries: 13-16/1, 3-6/2, 19-20/2, 10-13/3, 24-27/3, 7-10/4

European Youth Event

(9/5 Strasbourg)

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The positions to fill in 2014• 751 Members of the European Parliament• President of the European Commission• 27 Commissioners• President of the European Council (1 December 2014)• President of the European Parliament (x 2)• Permanent President of Eurozone• 20 EP Committee chairs• 14 EP Vice Presidents • Political Group leaders• Secretary General of Commission? EP? (Klaus Welle for EU

Delegation, Washington DC?)• President of 2015 Constitutional Convention• Non-EU positions: NATO and UN secretaries general

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The processArticle 17 TFEU

7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the same procedure.

The Council, by common accord with the President-elect, shall adopt the list of the other persons whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission. They shall be selected, on the basis of the suggestions made by Member States, in accordance with the criteria set out in paragraph 3, second subparagraph, and paragraph 5, second subparagraph.

The President, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the other members of the Commission shall be subject as a body to a vote of consent by the European Parliament. On the basis of this consent the Commission shall be appointed by the European Council, acting by a qualified majority.

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The process - continued

Declaration 11 on Article 17(6) and (7)of the Treaty on European Union

The Conference considers that, in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties, the European Parliament and the European Council are jointly responsible for the smooth running of the process leading to the election of the President of the European Commission. Prior to the decision of the European Council, representatives of the European Parliament and of the European Council will thus conduct the necessary consultations in the framework deemed the most appropriate. These consultations will focus on the backgrounds of the candidates for President of the Commission, taking account of the elections to the European Parliament, in accordance with the first subparagraph of Article 17(7). The arrangements for such consultations may be determined, in due course, by common accord between the European Parliament and the European Council.

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The people: Commission President(with current positions)

• EPP– Enda Kenny, Taoiseach, Ireland– Vivian Reding, Vice President European Commission– Donald Tusk, PM Poland (ruled himself out 10 June 2013)– Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland – Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden– Dalia Grybauskaitė, President Lithuania– President Barroso

• PES– Martin Schultz, President European Parliament– Helle Thorning-Schmitt, PM Denmark– José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – currently no major position– Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO

• ALDE– Guy Verhofstadt, MEP leader ALDE, EP– Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The incoming Commission President• Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member

state’ focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent already, in 2009)

• Parliamentary majority will be critical• Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs• A more partisan College?• Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?• Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance?

Ex-MEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP first before being appointed to the Commission”

• Portfolios? Reform of Directorates General structure?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

Other people, other positions?

• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for Ban-Ki Moon job)

• Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister)• Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)• ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of

European Council?• European Council – Dk PES government to nominate a Liberal? European

Council doesn’t need a nomination – Tusk here perhaps? • Commissioners: Kroes (age 71) for a third term? Lamy? Aubry (or French

PM?)? EU/US trade deal – Lamy for trade Commissioner again? • EPP parliamentary group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April

2014; how many other Commissioners on leave of absence (Reding? de Gucht?)?

• S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring to national politics – consolation prize for Schultz?

• NATO Sec Gen: Fratini/Pieter De Crem (Belgium)/Abdullah Gul (Turkey)?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

Already intense campaigning – even for positions on lists

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

Some other issues

• Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative• Manifestos• Campaigning• Candidatures – the process? What process? • Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014• Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation?• A single electoral register (2019?)?• Will it all be a flop?

E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C AT I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

THANK YOU!

If you have further questions, you can contact David Earnshaw : david.earnshaw@bm.com

37 Square de Meeus 1000 BrusselsBelgium

Tel: +32 2 743 66 11 Fax: +32 2 733 66 11

www.bmbrussels.euwww.bm.com