EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Man-machine mix and the forecaster's role
Dr. Wilfried Jacobs
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Bildungs- und Tagungszentrum
email: [email protected]
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Typical role for a forecaster
medium range and short range forecasts• monitoring of model results (e.g., according to conceptual
model or by comparing with corresponding measurements, observations)
• interpretation of model output and statistical products (e.g., MOS-probabilities, EPS) in the light of the monitoring
Nowcasting• model monitoring (model still reliable?)• weather monitoring (significant weather event?)• product monitoring (warnings still correct?)
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
MMO (Modified Model Output)
NWP / Statistical output
Check by the forecaster (based upon recent information)
succeeding methods
(e.g., road weather forecasts,
automatic text generation)
MMO (automatic consistency check)
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
EPM (Edition Production and Monitoring)
Purpose• issue of weather warnings
– correct
– recent
– adapted to the users' requirement
Technique• interactive and user friendly software
• automatic distribution to individual customers according to standards
• automatic cancellation reminder
• automonitoring
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Automonitoring (automatic alert)
Weather monitoring• Synop (METAR, SPECI)
• Warn-MOS (spatial probabilities)
• KONRAD significant cells
• GRIB (COSMO-EU / GME - forecasts)
Quality monitoring („model minus reality“)• LM / GME (GRIB)
• optimal guidance (point data)
• other products (e.g., road weather forecasts)
• synthetik satellite images (COSMO-EU / COSMO-DE)
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Internet: Warnings entire Germany (27/07/06, 14:34 MESZ)
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Internet: Warnings federal countries (27/07/06, 14:38 MESZ)
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Internet: district „Bitburg-Prüm“ (27/07/06, 14:25 MESZ)
( > 30-40 mm / 24 h)
•Locally more than 50 l/m² within 1 hour
•Hail (about 3 cm)
•gusts (up to 45 kt)
•Hints to dangers
EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany
Objective optimalization (automatically)
Goal: Optimal point forecast (In development)
Automatic combination (based upon objective criteria) • local NWP-forecasts
• observations• remote sensing
Continuous adaptation of this guidance to • recent synoptic observations
• nowcasting products (SAFs, Satellite weather, lightning, radar)
Manually checked point forecasts (base for most products)