EUMETSAT and Climate Services - Copernicus · WCRP “Grand Science Challenges”: - Clouds,...

1 Gathering Climate Change User Requirements for the next generation of the Copernicus Space Component Workshop – Brussels - 11 March 2016

Jörg Schulz

EUMETSAT and Climate Services


Relevant outcome of COP-21

Adaptation (Article 7(c)):

Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate,

including research, systematic observation of the

climate system and early warning systems, in a

manner that informs climate services and

supports decision-making


This is consistent with the GFCS

Enable better management of adaptation to climate change through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information into planning, policy and practice


Research and science are key drivers

• Research: “strengthening scientific knowledge”

• Research feeds IPCC assessment reports

• Climate Research has requirements of its own

• WCRP and its observation panels play a key role

• A robust science base is needed for all GFCS pillars

• This is true for “Observations and monitoring”

• Science of observation and extraction of Climate

Data Records shall not be underestimated


Research requirements: Climate Symposium 2014

WCRP “Grand Science Challenges”:

- Clouds, Circulation and Climate

Sensitivity

- The Changing Water Cycle

- Cryosphere in a Warming World

- Ocean Circulation and Regional

Sea Level Rise

- Prediction and Attribution of

Extremes: from Climate to

Weather

- Decadal Prediction

- Biogeochemistry

6 Gathering Climate Change User Requirements for the next generation of the Copernicus Space Component Workshop – Brussels - 11 March 2016 6

Climate Symposium 2014: Relevant Outcomes

• The thermodynamic aspects of the Grand Challenges aregenerally better understood than the dynamic aspects:circulation is a common uncertainty across several GrandChallenges

• The potential of the combination of operationalprogrammes and research missions is unique:

- The continuation of the high precision ocean altimetrymeasurements is a top priority of several Grand ScienceChallenges

- Some research missions (e.g. GRACE, Active atmosphericsounding, GPM…) need to be continued beyond one singlesatellite


Jason-CS/Sentinel-6 mission is now approved

(and Jason-3 was launched on 17 January !)

Source CNES/LEGOS/CLS 2014

.... But continuation of precipitation measurements from space is of concern

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/crossfirefps/images/d/de/Eu-flag.gif/revision/latest?cb=20131115103350

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/crossfirefps/images/d/de/Eu-flag.gif/revision/latest?cb=20131115103350


• Links between Grand Science Challenges and their needs/priorities for space-based observations and Climate DataRecords should be further developed.• This recommendation is addressed to GCOS

• The broad range of needs and priorities formulated by theresearch community for space-based observations canonly be fulfilled through international cooperation inparticular through the Architecture for Climate Monitoringfrom Space coordinated by the CEOS-CGMS WG onClimate.• This one is addressed to CGMS and CEOS agencies




• There is a need for an integrated

observational approach. One

that is strategically designed to

be cost effective and sustained

over decades, yet remains

targeted on key challenges and

promotes the fusion of theory,

models and observations. Where

relevant, this approach should

also address the linkages to

societal benefits, as this could

facilitate the funding of new

observation systems.


Flow of Requirements to Products

Joint CEOS/CGMS Working Group on Climate

USERS

GCOSJWGClimate

ConsolidatedRequirements

ECVCarbon Cycle

Water Cycle

Precipitation Priority 2 Priority 1

CO2 Priority 1 Priority 3

Courtesy J. Bates

Link to Grand Science Challenges and their Needs


The Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space

Implementation coordinated by

Joint CEOS – CGMS Working Group on Climate (JWG Climate)


The Architecture and the GFCS


CEOS-CGMS WGClimate Relevance for Planning

• Provide visibility on Climate Data

Records available from CEOS &

CGMS missions or their combination

on an GCOS ECV basis that allows

response to GCOS IP;

• The Inventory establishes traceability

with respect to GCOS principles,

requirements and guidelines;

• The WG identifies gaps and shortfalls,

provides recommendations and

formulates a coordinated action plan to

address recommendations;

• This optimises the planning of future

missions and constellations to expand

Climate Data Records and close gaps

with respect to GCOS requirements.

ECV Inventory

Reference Assessment

Process

Gap Analysis & Recommendation

Action Plan

Creation of conditions to fulfil

GCOS requirements


Maturity Matrix – A tool to monitor progress

Maturity

1

2

3

4

5

6


EUMETSAT support to Copernicus services

EUMETSAT delivers to Copernicus users:

• A single multi-mission real-time data stream

integrating meteorological and ocean /

atmosphere products including cross-

calibrated data between Sentinels and

EUMETSAT satellites;

• Specific Climate Data Records for C3S.

This data service provision relies and will rely on:

• EUMETSAT satellites (Meteosat and Metop);

• Copernicus Sentinels operated by EUMETSAT

(S-3, S-4, S-5 and HPOA/Jason satellites);

• Satellites of third parties with whom

EUMETSAT have cooperation agreements

(e.g. NOAA, CMA, ISRO, etc.);

• Existing EUMETSAT infrastructure.

•).


Inputs to Global Reanalysis


Example: Metop-A ASCAT FCDR

ASCAT Ocean winds Sea ice drift Soil moisture

Radar backscatter signature of tropical rainforest;

• Recalibration eliminates drifts and jumps in the time series;

• Reflects only natural variations of backscatter of the forest canopy;

• EUMETSAT provides the basis for improved GCOS ECV data records.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Use of ASCAT retrieved soil moisture in reanalysis

• 4 times more assimilated observations in REPROC;• Background and analysis mean departure errors reduced by 30%.

ASCAT data assimilated in operations (CTRL) Reprocessed ASCAT(REPROC)

Courtesy of Patricia de Rosnay

2010 2010


Inter-calibrated Meteosat Brightness Temperature

Figure courtesy of Reto Stoeckli, Meteo Swiss - “I really like the (visual, not statistical) cleanness of the IR BT’s over time. It’s a marvel to look at it.”

MFG 2MFG 3MFG 4MFG 5MFG 6MFG 7

Every image IR 10.8 mm (top) and WV 6.2 mm (bottom) brightness temperature [K]

at Libya site.

220 230

240 250

260 270

240 2

60

280

300

320

MFG 4MFG 5MFG 6MFG 7MSG 1MSG 2MSG 3

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Thematic Climate Data Records of ECVs


The elephant in the room: uncertainties

• Decision making requires appreciation of uncertainties

• Research is needed to narrow down uncertainties

• Science and reference data are needed to document and trace uncertainties in observations and climate records

• Traceability of uncertainties in observations

• Metrology

• Cross-calibration/validation against reference observations

• Evaluation of limitations of processing algorithms

• Mature Climate Records include information on uncertainties


SOFTWARE READINESS

METADATAUSER

DOCUMENTATIONUNCERTAINTY

CHARATERISATIONPUBLIC ACCESS,

FEEDBACK, UPDATEUSAGE

Standards Validation Uncertainty quantificationAutomated Quality

Monitoring

None None None None

Standard uncertainty

nomenclature is identified or

defined

Validation using external

reference data done for limited

locations and times

Limited information on

uncertainty arising from

systematic and random effects in

the measurement

None

Score 2 + Standard uncertainty

nomenclature is applied

Validation using external

reference data done for global and

temporal representative locations

and times

Comprehensive information on

uncertainty arising from

systematic and random effects in

the measurement

Methods for automated quality

monitoring defined

Score 3 + Procedures to

establish SI traceability are

defined

Score 3 + (Inter)comparison

against corresponding CDRs

(other methods, models, etc)

Score 3 + quantitative estimates

of uncertainty provided within

the product characterising more

or less uncertain data points

Score 3 + automated

monitoring partially

implemented

Score 4 + SI traceability partly

established

Score 4 + data provider

participated in one inter-national

data assessment

Score 4 + temporal and spatial

error covariance quantified

Score 3 + monitoring fully

implemented (all production

levels)

Score 5 + SI traceability

established

Score 4 + data provider

participated in multiple inter-

national data assessment and

incorporating feedbacks into the

product development cycle

Score 5 + comprehensive

validation of the quantitative

uncertainty estimates and error

covariance

Score 5 + automated

monitoring in place with results

fed back to other accessible

information, e.g. meta data or

documentation

Maturity Matrix - Uncertainty


Quantitative Uncertainty

Characterisation

Support to Quality Assurance

Support to Reanalysis

Innovation: EUMETSAT involvement in EU Research

2

2

2

1

2

21 uukmm

2

2

2

1 uu


• Examples: observations from space

• Hyperspectral infrared sounding (IASI/AIRS/CrIS)

• High precision ocean altimetry (Jason class)

• Dual-view infrared imagery (ATSR/SLSTR)

• CLARREO

• Etc...

• Other reference datasets critical, also for space

Reference missions/observation data sets


Conclusion

• An integrated observational approach is needed that

remains targeted on key challenges and promotes the

fusion of theory, models and observations;

• Space agencies will respond to requirements set out in the

GCOS Implementation Plan through the Architecture;

• The CEOS-CGMS WG Climate is key to document and

assess the performance and to optimises the planning of

future missions and constellations to expand Climate Data

Records;

• GCOS can add value about uncertainties, through:• Tracing GCOS requirements to WCRP Grand Science

Challenges;

• Supporting the identification of reference observation data sets.

Date post:	17-Aug-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	3 times
Download:	0 times

EUMETSAT and Climate Services - Copernicus · WCRP “Grand Science Challenges”: - Clouds,...

Documents