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1 EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production decreased again, from 7.0 billion tonnes in 2015 to 6.7 billion tonnes in 2016, reflecting low prices due to weaker demand in major economies, mainly China, the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (US). China produced less coal in 2016 (3.45 billion tonnes), a 6% reduction in comparison with the previous year; however, imports increased in the first two months of 2017 by 50% year on year. The government five-year plan for 2016-2020 states that 800 Mt/year of outdated coal mines will be removed from production, while 500Mt/year of improved capacity will be added. The Chinese National Energy Administration announced in November 2016, in its latest five-year plan, that coal-fired power capacity could grow up to 1,100 GW by 2020 (around 18% more than existing coal-fired capacity). The US had a drastic production reduction, falling to 670 Mt, 18% less than in 2015. The newly-elected US President Trump shelved the Clean Power Plan, lifting further carbon emission reduction burdens from coal power plants. Indonesia reduced production to 434 Mt, a 6% reduction in comparison with 2015. Production in India is estimated to have been 639 Mt in 2016, a 13% increase in comparison with 2015, continuing the Indian government policy to expand indigenous production. Coal India Limited (largest Indian coal company with 80% of national production) aims to increase production from 538 Mt in 2015/2016 to 908 Mt in 2019/2020. Furthermore, the Indian government has issued circulars in 2017 to government-owned power plants to compulsorily buy indigenous coal, these plants imported 24 Mt in 2016. Russia also increased production in 2016 to 383 Mt, 3% more than in the previous year. Australia increased production by 4%, to 440 Mt in 2016. South Africa and Colombia also increased production, changing the trend from last year. The Paris Agreement entered into force in November 2016, as the European Union’s members agreed to ratify and so pushed above the threshold of over 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Global coal trade Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 100 Mt in 2016, almost the same level as in the previous year. The supply market is dominated by Australia and Indonesia, which supply 35% and respectively 28% of the market. Preliminary data shows that Australia slightly increased exports to 391 Mt, while Indonesia further reduced exports by 17 Mt to 310 Mt in 2016. Russian exports grew again, by 16 Mt (11.8% up in
Transcript
Page 1: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

1

EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017

May 2017

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND

SEABORNE TRADE

Key trends

Global steam coal production decreased again, from 7.0 billion tonnes in 2015 to 6.7 billion tonnes in

2016, reflecting low prices due to weaker demand in major economies, mainly China, the European Union

(EU) and the United States of America (US).

China produced less coal in 2016 (3.45 billion tonnes), a 6% reduction in comparison with the previous

year; however, imports increased in the first two months of 2017 by 50% year on year. The government

five-year plan for 2016-2020 states that 800 Mt/year of outdated coal mines will be removed from

production, while 500 Mt/year of improved capacity will be added. The Chinese National Energy

Administration announced in November 2016, in its latest five-year plan, that coal-fired power capacity

could grow up to 1,100 GW by 2020 (around 18% more than existing coal-fired capacity).

The US had a drastic production reduction, falling to 670 Mt, 18% less than in 2015. The newly-elected

US President Trump shelved the Clean Power Plan, lifting further carbon emission reduction burdens

from coal power plants.

Indonesia reduced production to 434 Mt, a 6% reduction in comparison with 2015.

Production in India is estimated to have been 639 Mt in 2016, a 13% increase in comparison with 2015,

continuing the Indian government policy to expand indigenous production. Coal India Limited (largest

Indian coal company with 80% of national production) aims to increase production from 538 Mt in

2015/2016 to 908 Mt in 2019/2020. Furthermore, the Indian government has issued circulars in 2017 to

government-owned power plants to compulsorily buy indigenous coal, these plants imported 24 Mt in

2016. Russia also increased production in 2016 to 383 Mt, 3% more than in the previous year. Australia

increased production by 4%, to 440 Mt in 2016. South Africa and Colombia also increased production,

changing the trend from last year.

The Paris Agreement entered into force in November 2016, as the European Union’s members agreed

to ratify and so pushed above the threshold of over 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Global coal trade

Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 100 Mt in 2016, almost the same level as in the

previous year. The supply market is dominated by Australia and Indonesia, which supply 35% and

respectively 28% of the market.

Preliminary data shows that Australia slightly increased exports to 391 Mt, while Indonesia further

reduced exports by 17 Mt to 310 Mt in 2016. Russian exports grew again, by 16 Mt (11.8% up in

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comparison with the previous year) to 153 Mt in 2016, securing their position as the world’s third largest

coal exporter.

The USA saw its exports fall by 12 Mt to about 50 Mt, a 19% decrease, while Colombia increased its

exports to 89 Mt (up by 10% from the previous year). South Africa’s coal exports slightly decrease to

75 Mt, a 2.4% reduction in comparison with the previous year.

In Europe, the five largest steam coal importing countries had reduced activity across the board in 2016.

Coal imports to the United Kingdom declined dramatically again, to just 8.3 Mt (-67% in comparison

with 2015). Coal imports to the other major importers reported slight declines: Germany decreased

imports to 55.2 Mt; Italy decreased to 17.9 Mt (-10%); Spain reduced imports to 14.7 Mt (-26%), and, in

France, coal imports slightly decreased to 13.5 Mt.

Corporate developments

Many coal producing majors are returning to profit, following the coal price surge starting in the second

half of 2016. Anglo American cancelled two metallurgical coal mine divestments. Glencore reported a

profit on a net basis in 2016, but a $1bn coal hedge loss. BHP reported its highest met coal profits since

2009, but cautioned against short-term uncertainties. Rio Tinto’s coal division had in 2016 one of the

biggest gains amongst the company’s divisions. More recently, in April 2017, Peabody emerged from

bankruptcy, after Arch Coal had exited bankruptcy in October 2016, as the second largest US producer

of thermal coal.

Important European power utilities, such as E.ON and RWE, however, reported in 2016 record losses,

largely due to coal and gas power asset write-downs.

Source: EURACOAL Market Reports; VDKi; IHS Markit

Coal prices and trends

Steam coal prices made a spectacular recovery by the end of 2016, reaching 90 $/tonne. The fundaments

for the price increase were production cuts, mainly in China. China’s decision to curb working days

further was postponed in March 2017, as coal prices moved higher than the Chinese regulators would

like them to be.

Partially explaining the price increase are the higher freight rates, which have seen a steep increase in

the second half of the year, partly due to higher oil prices.

Concerning coking coal, prices reached over 125 $/tonne in the last quarter of 2016, and over

150 $/tonne by first quarter of 2017, fuelled by production cuts and higher demand, which is reflected

in a slightly increased world crude steel output.

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Global seaborne hard coal trade and hard coal production

Traded steam coal Traded coking coal Total hard coal production

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Source: ECB; US Bureau of Labour Statistics; Trading Economics

Source for currencies: ECB; OECD

European carbon permit futures over the period 2018-2020 show a slight decrease in prices, after a

bump up at the end of 2016. There is still uncertainty for the carbon permits for the period 2020-2030,

due to ongoing negotiations over the EU Emissions Trading System reform.

Source: VDKI, McCloskey: First quotation of the month, basis 6000 kcal/kg (converted to 7000 kcal/kg)

-1

0

1

2

3

Inflation main currencies 2016

EUR USD

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

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Dec

-16

USD / EUR

40

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80

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

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No

v-1

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Dec

-16

USD / RUB

11.11.21.31.41.5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

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Au

g-1

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USD / AUD

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Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

(EU

R /

tce

)

(USD

/ t

ce)

MCIS Steam Coal Marker Price cif-NW Europe

Steam Coal (USD/tce) 2015 Steam Coal (USD/tce) 2016

Steam Coal (EUR/tce) 2015 Steam Coal (EUR/tce) 2016

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Source: VDKI, Frachtcontor Junge & Co

EUROPEAN COAL MARKET

2016 2015

Mt Mt

Domestic hard coal production 87.2 98.6

Hard coal imports 166.8 190.7

Lignite production 371.3 400.2

The European coal market has continued to decline since 2012 for a combination of reasons: low

wholesale electricity prices, loss of market share to subsidised renewables, renewed competition from

gas and pressure from environmental regulation and taxation, as well as the limited availability of public

and private finances for new projects.

* Hard coal and brown coal exports from Poland and the Czech Republic were subtracted to avoid double counting

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Freight Rates (Capesize)

R Bay/Rotterdam 2015 R Bay/Rotterdam 2016 Newcastle/Rotterdam 2015

Newcastle/Rotterdam 2016 Bolivar/Rotterdam 2015 Bolivar/Rotterdam 2016

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EUROPEAN COAL MARKET

Domestic hard coal production Hard coal imports* Lignite production

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HARD COAL

Producing country* 2016 2015

Mt Mt

Czech Republic 6.8 8.2

Germany 4.1 6.7

Poland 70.4 72.2

Spain 1.7 3.0

United Kingdom 4.2 8.5

Total 87.2 (-12%) 98.6 *Romania’s hard coal (1.3 Mt in 2015) now reported as lignite as per international norms

Austria

Verbund, an Austrian energy company, will close the 246 MW Mellach coal-fired power plant by 2020.

The power plant, commissioned in 1986, represents about 12% of Austrian coal-fired capacity and it is

supplied mainly by Węglokoks from Poland and OKD from the Czech Republic.

Czech Republic

Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 6.8 Mt in 2016, a decrease of 18% from 2015,

when it stood at 8.2 Mt. Approximately 3.4 Mt of hard coal were exported (-4%) and approximately

3.1 Mt were imported, 10% more than in 2015. Imports were equally divided between electricity

generation and coke production.

Coking coal exports stood at 2.1 Mt, while imports were around 1.5 Mt, making the Czech Republic a

net coking coal exporter in 2016. Coke production slightly decreased to 2.2 Mt.

In corporate news, OKD, the only producer of hard coal in the Czech Republic, is insolvent since May

2016, but in August 2016, creditors approved its reorganisation. One of the mines of the group, the

Paskov deep mine, ceased production in March 2017.

Denmark

Danish coal imports slightly increased to 2.9 Mt in 2016, from 2.8 Mt in 2015.

DONG Energy announced that it will stop using coal at its power plants by 2023, replacing the fuel with

wood pellets and wood chips. Currently, DONG is using coal for 46% of thermal power and heat

generation. Studstrup Power Station in October 2016 and Unit 1 at Avedøre Power Station in December

2016 were converted to burn biomass.

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EU HARD COAL PRODUCTION

Germany United Kingdom Czech Republic Spain Poland

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Finland

The Northern country does not have any coal mining operations, but uses solid fuels for electricity

generation. In 2016, preliminary data shows that imports stood at 3.9 Mt, 1.5 Mt being coking coal.

Overall, the consumption of coal (including hard coal, coke, and blast furnace and coke oven gas)

increased by 16% to 116 TJ (9% of total energy consumption). Hard coal consumption, mostly in

combined heat and power production, increased by 31% to 3.3 Mt.

Germany

In 2016, coal production significantly decreased to 4.1 Mt from 6.7 Mt in 2015 (-39%), due to the planned

closure of Augusta Victoria mine in January 2016. Coal imports have been at high levels, at 53.1 Mt,

slightly lower than in 2015. Total coal and coal products imports stood at 55.2 Mt (73.1% steam coal,

22.0% coking coal, 3.5% coke, 1.1% anthracite, 0.2% briquettes).

Employment in the hard coal mining sector decreased by 22%, to 7,480 in 2016, from 9,640 in 2015.

Hard coal’s share in gross electricity production decreased by 5.3%, in 2016 and stood at 111.5 TWh,

covering 17% of the German electricity market.

On the power production side, coal generation is facing problems. UNIPER’s Datteln 4 coal-fired power

plant still has permitting issues and EnBW reported the closure of coal-fired Altbach/Deizisau cogen

unit 1 in 2017. As previously reported, STEAG will close several coal units; however, only three were

approved for closure by grid manager Amprion: West 1 and 2, and Herne 3 in North Rhine Westphalia

with a total 1 GW. The 780 MW Bexbach and the 724 MW Weiher units were refused for closure, being

needed for security of system operation.

Italy

Coal’s share in the Italian electricity mix remained stable at around 12% in 2016. Steam coal imports

stood at 14 Mt (-12.5% compared with 2015); while the imports of metallurgical coal and PCI increased

to 3.9 Mt (+11% compared with 2015).

The Italian manufacturing industry incurs electricity prices 50% above the EU average, as the country

depends on imported natural gas from Russia and Algeria and subsidised renewable energies.

Poland

Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased in 2016 to 70.4 Mt, -1.8% compared with 2015. The

largest producers remain: Kompania Węglowa (producing 23.6 Mt, 3.6 Mt less than in 2015), Jastrzebska

Spolka Węglowa, mostly specialised in coking coal (producing 16.8 Mt, 0.5 Mt more than in 2015)

Katowicki Holding Węglowy (producing 9.5 Mt, 1.1 Mt less than in 2015), and LW Bogdanka (producing

9.0 Mt, 0.5 Mt more than in 2015).

Polish hard coal exports remained the same as in 2015, at 9 Mt. Imports of hard coal into Poland

remained also stable, at 8.3 Mt in 2016, largely from Russia (5.2 Mt), Australia (1.7 Mt) and Colombia

(0.6 Mt). However, more steam coal and less coking coal was imported in 2016.

In November 2016, the European Commission approved (IP/16/3824) the approximately €1.79 billion

Polish state aid for closing uncompetitive coal mines by 2018.

As previously reported (Coal Market Report 2016-2), Kompania Węglowa was re-organised as the Polska

Grupa Górnicza (PGG – Polish Mining Group) since May 2016 and merged in March 2017 with Katowicki

Holding Węglowy. The new coal mining company has 43,300 employees and plans to invest €1.8 billion

in productivity improvements by 2020.

Spain

Coal production in 2016 was at 1.7 Mt, a large decrease (-42%) from the previous year. Provisional figures

for coal imports show a decrease to around 14.7 Mt, from 19 Mt in 2015, following a good year for hydro

generation. Coal-fired power plants generated 37.5 TWh in 2016, covering 14% of the Spanish electricity

market.

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However, Spanish coal-fired generation doubled in the first two months of 2017, on a year-on-year basis,

from 4.58 TWh to 8.92 TWh.

Turkey

Coal production and imports in Turkey went up in 2016, following the expansion of the economy and of

the coal fleet, as well as implementation of new safety measures, despite the selective additional tax on

imported coal used for power generation, introduced in August (reported in Coal Market report 2016-

2).

In 2016, 92.3 TWh gross electricity was generated using coal, around 34% of total gross electricity

generation in the country.

United Kingdom

In 2016, coal represented just 10% of generation (down 60% in comparison with 2015). However, no

further plant closures were announced. Coal production was 4.2 Mt (down 51%) and imports stood at

8.3 Mt, following the decline in coal generation. Imports came mostly from Colombia (2.4 Mt), Russia

(2.3 Mt) and the USA (1.3 Mt). Russian coal imports in particular lost significant ground in recent years,

falling from the top supplier of the UK market to third place, partly for quality reasons relative to NOX.

The January capacity auction for 2017/18 delivery rewarded coal which won more than 10 GW, although

the clearing price was rather low at £6.95 kW/year. The capacity market auction for 2020/21 again

rewarded coal, with no new gas CCGTs.

Ukraine

The Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency in February 2017 due to low coal inventories,

which means a risk of power cuts. The low inventories are reported to result from the blocking supply of

coal transport from non-government controlled territories by some Ukrainian activists. The state of

emergency has been subsequently prolonged.

LIGNITE

Producing country 2016 2015

Mt Mt

Bulgaria 31.2 35.9

Czech Republic 38.5 38.1

Germany 171.5 178.1

Greece 32.6 45.4

Hungary 9.2 9.3

Poland 60.2 63.1

Romania* 23.0 25.3

Slovak Republic 1.8 1.8

Slovenia 3.3 3.2

Total 371.3 (-7%) 400.2 *Romania’s hard coal (1.3 Mt in 2015) now reported as lignite as per international norms

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Bulgaria

Coal utilisation and production decreased in 2016, in comparison with 2015, mainly due to lower gross

electricity production. Lignite production decreased to 31.2 Mt (-13% in comparison with 2015), while

lignite consumption stood at 29.9 Mt (-16%).

In 2017, the Bulgarian Ministry of Energy banned from 13 January to 9 February the export of electricity,

affecting mainly exports towards Greece. The ban was caused by the extremely low temperatures, which

increased energy demand that could not be sufficiently covered if exports were allowed.

Czech Republic

Brown coal production in the Czech Republic remained steady at 38.5 Mt in 2016, most being utilised in

electricity production (29.0 Mt). Exports remained at the same level as in 2015, at around 0.92 Mt, mainly

to Poland and Slovakia. Almost no brown coal was imported, a change from 2015 when about 1 Mt of

brown coal were imported.

In 2016, the electricity mix remained dominated by brown coal (36.2 TWh or 43% out of 83.3 TWh

produced, up 1% in comparison with 2015), but hard coal (5.72 TWh) and gas (3.42 TWh) had significant

gains, of 9% and respectively 73%, while nuclear (24.1 TWh) and RES (10.5 TWh) declined by 10% and

respectively 3%.

Germany

Lignite production in 2016 was 171.5 Mt, 3.7% lower than the previous year. Most mining is in the

Rhineland region (52.7%), followed by Lusatia (36.3%) and Central Germany (10.3%). Helmstedt mine

closed because the power plant that was using its lignite moved to the strategic reserve.

About 90% of lignite production was used in power plants to generate electricity and heat. Power

generation from lignite was slightly lower in 2016, at 150 TWh. The number of workers in the German

lignite industry at the end of 2016 was 19,852, lower than at the end of 2015. This includes approx. 1,300

trainees and approx. 5,100 workers in power plants. In total, almost 70,000 jobs are secured by lignite

mining and power generation in Germany.

In gross electricity generation, brown coal had 23.1%, while hard coal had 17.2% of the market. RES had

29.0%, nuclear 13.1%, gas 12.4%, oil 0.9%; the remaining 4.2%, being filled by other electricity generators,

mainly hydro. However, there is a large discrepancy between capacity and output of different sources of

electricity generation.

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EU LIGNITE PRODUCTION

Poland Greece Czech Republic Romania Bulgaria

Hungary Slovenia Slovak Republic Germany

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Greece

Lignite is an important fuel for power generation in Greece, with about one third of the electricity market

(31% in 2016). Lignite production stood at 32.6 Mt in 2016, 28% less than in 2015. Hard coal consumption

is low, used only for industrial purposes. There is no hard coal mining in Greece and imports stood at

0.3 Mt in 2016, about the same figure as in 2015.

Lignite-fired electricity generation in 2016 was almost half that in 2007, at 14.9 TWh, due to increased

gas generation (+71.2% in comparison with 2015) and RES generation (+9.5%). However, in the long

run, the projections show a stabilisation of lignite-fired electricity generation.

Hungary

Coal production in Hungary stood at 9.2 Mt in 2016, slightly lower than in 2015. Hard coal production

in Hungary will likely increase, two small new mines were opened in 2016 to meet household

consumption. There is also a new coal company that uses lignite in a mix as fertilizer for export to Italy.

The production is small scale, but this is an encouraging sign for the industry.

Furthermore, there are plans for the lignite-fired Matra power plant to continue to 2030, but that will

largely depend on the German owners, RWE (50.9% stake) and EnBW (21.7% stake). Lignite-fired

electricity generation had 17% of the market in 2016, with insignificant input from hard coal.

Poland

In 2016, lignite production stood at 60.2 Mt, slightly less than the 63.1 Mt produced in 2015. The leading

producer was PGE Bełchatów, with over 40.2 Mt, followed by PGE Turów (7.5 Mt), PAK Konin (9.0 Mt)

and PAK Adamów (3.5 Mt).

Lignite-fired electricity provided 51.0 TWh of the 166.5 TWh or 30.6% produced in Poland. While lignite

production remained roughly stable since 2010, the number of employees declined to 9,074 in 2016,

leading to important productivity gains.

In corporate news, PGE announced that construction of new units at Opole (70% complete, fuelled by

hard coal) and Turów (18% complete, fuelled by lignite) continues as scheduled.

Romania

Lignite production decreased to 23.0 Mt in 2016, 20.0 Mt being mined by Oltenia Energy Complex, the

second largest electricity company in the country. The company invested €1 bn in recent years for

desulphurization plants, dense slurry facilities and electrostatic precipitators, in addition to the €240

million paid for CO2 certificates in the last four years.

On political developments, there is a new government since January 2017. Two of the new secretaries of

state for energy have worked in the coal sector.

Slovakia

Lignite production remained stable at 1.8 Mt in 2016, most being consumed for electricity generation.

Hornonitrianske bane Prievidza, a.s. (HBP) is the only coal miner in the country, after recent mine

acquisitions, employing circa 4,200 employees. Coal is extracted in underground collieries at Nováky,

Cígeľ, Handlová and Čáry.

Slovakia has two coal-fired power plants: Vojany TPP with 4 blocks, totalling 440 MW, fuelled by

domestic coal from HBP and Nováky TPP with 2 blocks, totalling 280 MW, fuelled by imported coal from

Russia and Ukraine. Nováky TPP successfully modernised two blocks in 2015. Coal imports stood at

around 4.0 Mt in 2016.

Page 10: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 1

World Market Price evolution (Coal, Coke, Freight, Crude Oil)

MCIS Steam Coal Marker Price (7000kcal/kg)

Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Deccif-NW EuropeSteam Coal 2015 77.90 68.76 73.58 69.22 70.39 66.86 69.41 67.25 64.40 60.55 63.12 58.00(US$/tce) 2016 56.19 52.34 53.00 52.61 54.48 59.31 62.94 71.19 71.12 88.52 100.25 100.41

Steam Coal 2015 67.03 60.58 67.89 64.23 63.13 59.63 63.12 60.37 57.39 57.90 58.79 53.32(EUR/tce) 2016 51.74 47.18 47.75 46.40 48.17 52.82 56.86 63.49 63.43 80.28 92.83 95.24

Source: VDKI, McCloskey: First quotation of the month, basis 6000 kcal/kg (converted to 7000 kcal/kg)

Freight Rates (USD/t)R Bay/Rotterdam 2015 4.81 4.36 4.08 4.34 5.08 5.55 6.76 6.44 5.20 5.77 4.14 3.84(Capesize) 2016 2.64 2.50 2.38 3.79 3.70 3.87 4.03 3.79 5.98 6.40 7.33 6.67

Newcastle/Rotterdam 2015 8.44 7.94 8.08 8.39 9.44 9.69 10.66 10.61 10.07 9.63 6.51 6.85(Capesize) 2016 4.96 4.70 4.28 6.33 7.16 7.01 7.74 7.67 10.48 11.63 12.22 11.28

Bolivar/Rotterdam 2015 6.64 6.05 5.18 5.42 6.00 6.31 7.84 8.13 6.23 6.07 4.98 5.61(Capesize) 2016 3.91 3.54 3.23 5.03 5.80 5.23 5.33 4.77 6.70 7.15 8.66 7.09

Source: VDKI, Frachtcontor Junge & Co

Currency Rates

USD / EUR 2015 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.912016 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95

USD / RUB 2015 61.70 64.63 60.23 52.87 50.58 54.50 57.06 65.15 66.76 63.06 65.02 69.662016 76.25 77.22 70.47 66.68 65.66 65.31 64.33 64.92 64.60 62.68 64.36 62.19

AUD / USD 2015 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.722016 0.70 0.71 0.75 0.77 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.73

Source: ECB; OECD

Crude Oil (USD/Barrel)

Crude Oil 2015 44.38 54.06 52.46 57.30 62.16 60.21 54.19 45.46 44.83 45.02 40.50 33.642016 26.50 28.72 34.65 37.86 43.21 45.84 42.68 43.10 42.89 47.87 43.22 51.67

Source: OPEC Basket Prices

Page 11: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 2

WORLD SEABORNE COAL TRADE - STEAM COAL*

Exporting Countries 2016 (1-12) 2015 (1-12) Diff. 2016/15 (1-12)Mt Mt Mt

PACIFIC

Australia 199 197 2China 4 4 0Indonesia 234 287 -53Canada 2 2 0

SUB-TOTAL 439 490 -51

ATLANTIC

Colombia 81 76 5Russia 68 55 13South Africa 15 32 -17Venezuela 1 2 -1USA 13 18 -5Others

SUB-TOTAL 178 183 -5

TOTAL 617 673 -56

incl. Anthracite and PCI-Coal

with italics are estimated figures

*large exporters onlySource: Source: VDKI, preliminary figures; IHS Markit

Page 12: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 3

WORLD SEABORNE COAL TRADE - COKING COAL* (inc. PCI-Coal)

Exporting Countries 2016 (1-12) 2015 (1-12) Diff. 2016/15 (1-12)Mt Mt Mt

Australia 190 185 5Canada 24 28 -4China 5 1 4Russia 35 22 13USA 37 28 9

TOTAL 291 264 27

*large exporters onlySource: IHS Markit, provisional data

Page 13: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 4

EU CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION

COUNTRY

2016 (1-12)

Mt

2015 (1-12)

Mt

Austria 7.4 7.7

Belgium 7.7 7.3

Bulgaria 0.5 0.5

Czech Republic 5.3 5.3

Croatia 0.0 0.1

Finland 4.1 4.0

France 14.6 15.0

Germany 42.1 42.7

Greece 1.2 0.9

Hungary 1.3 1.7

Italy 23.3 22.0

Luxembourg 2.3 2.1

Netherlands 6.9 7.0

Poland 8.9 9.2

Slovakia 4.8 4.6

Slovenia 0.6 0.6

Spain 13.7 14.9

Sweden 4.6 4.4

United Kingdom 7.6 11.0

Others 5.3 5.4

EU-28 162.3 166.2 29.0

Source: IISI

Page 14: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 5

EU Hard coal and lignite production and consumption

COUNTRY1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

Czech Republic 6.8 8.2 2.5 2.3

Germany 4.1 6.7 n.a. 45.4

Poland 70.4 72.2 30.5 30

Romania** 0 0 n.a. n.a.

Spain 1.7 3.0 14.7 n.a.

United Kingdom 4.2 8.5 12.0 29.4

EU-28* 87.2 98.6 n.a. n.a.

Ukraine 40.9 39.7 n.a. n.a.

Turkey 1.3 1.5 16.9 14.9

Lignite production

COUNTRY1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

Bulgaria 31.2 35.9 29.9 35.9

Czech Republic 38.5 38.1 29.0 29.4

Germany 171.5 178.1 156.9 159.3

Greece 32.6 45.4 34.2 41.2

Hungary 9.2 9.3 8.6 8.7

Poland 60.2 63.1 59.6 62.1

Romania** 23.0 25.3 22.5 n.a

Slovakia 1.8 1.8 n.a 1.7

Slovenia 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.2

EU-28* 371.3 400.2 n.a 341.5

Serbia 38.4 37.0 36.3 35.9

Turkey 50.9 41.8 43.4 37.5

*large producers only

**Romania’s hard coal (1.3 Mt in 2015) now reported as lignite as per international norms

Provisory figues are with italics

Hard coal productionConsumption of hard coal for

power generation

Lignite consumption for

power generation

Page 15: EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 · EURACOAL Market Report 1/2017 May 2017 WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production

TABLE 6

EU Hard coal imports

COUNTRY1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

Mt

1-12 2016

Mt

1-12 2015

MtAustria* 1.1 1.5 2.4 1.7 3.6 3.2

Belgium 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.7 4.2

Bulgaria n.a n.a. n.a n.a. 0.7 1.1

Croatia 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0

Czech Republic 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 3.1 2.9

Denmark 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8

Finland 1.5 1.3 2.4 2.2 3.9 3.5

France n.a n.a. n.a n.a. 13.5 14.3

Germany 12.8 12.3 40.3 43.2 53.1 55.5

Greece 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3

Hungary 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.5 1.3

Ireland 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.4

Italy 3.9 3.5 14.0 16.0 17.9 19.6

Netherlands 3.8 3.5 10.7 8.9 14.5 12.4

Poland 2.2 2.7 6.1 5.5 8.3 8.2

Portugal* 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.1

Romania n.a n.a. n.a n.a. 1.0 1.2

Slovakia* n.a n.a. n.a n.a. 4.0 4.1

Slovenia 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Spain** 1.8 1.6 12.9 17.4 14.7 19.0

Sweden n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.1 2.7

United Kingdom 2.8 4.7 5.5 20.8 8.3 25.5

EU-28 166.8 190.7

Ukraine n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.2 14.6

Serbia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2

Turkey n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. 34.9 31.5

*Austria, Portugal and Slovakia 2015 figures updated**Spain: steam coal includes anthraciteProvisional figues are with italicsSource: EURACOAL members, McCloskey, VDKi, national government statistics, Eurostat

Coking coal imports Steam coal imports Total hard coal imports


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