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Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

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Forecast Revisit 2010-2011 Consumer Health December 2010
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Page 1: Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

Forecast Revisit 2010-2011Consumer Health

December 2010

Page 2: Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

© Euromonitor International

2

Consumer Health: Revisited

Learn More

To find out more about Euromonitor International's complete range of business intelligence on industries, countries and consumers please visit www.euromonitor.com or contact your local Euromonitor International office:

Disclaimer

Much of the information in this briefing is of a statistical nature and, while every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability, Euromonitor International cannot be held responsible for omissions or errors

Figures in tables and analyses are calculated from unrounded data and may not sum. Analyses found in the briefings may not totally reflect the companies’ opinions, reader discretion is advised

London +44 (0)20 7251 8024Chicago +1 312 922 1115Singapore +65 6429 0590Shanghai +86 21 6372 6288Vilnius +370 5 243 1577

Dubai +971 4 372 4363Cape Town +27 21 552 0037Santiago +56 2 915 7200Sydney +61 2 9275 8869

Page 3: Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

© Euromonitor International

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

Page 4: Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

© Euromonitor International

4

Consumer Health: Revisited

Learn More

To find out more about Euromonitor International's complete range of business intelligence on industries, countries and consumers please visit www.euromonitor.com or contact your local Euromonitor International office:

Disclaimer

Much of the information in this briefing is of a statistical nature and, while every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability, Euromonitor International cannot be held responsible for omissions or errors

Figures in tables and analyses are calculated from unrounded data and may not sum. Analyses found in the briefings may not totally reflect the companies’ opinions, reader discretion is advised

London +44 (0)20 7251 8024Chicago +1 312 922 1115Singapore +65 6429 0590Shanghai +86 21 6372 6288Vilnius +370 5 243 1577

Dubai +971 4 372 4363Cape Town +27 21 552 0037Santiago +56 2 915 7200Sydney +61 2 9275 8869

Scope

Introduction

• This global brief provides an update on trends and forecast assumptions based on trends and events observed in 2010.

2009Consumer Health

US$169 billion

OTC HealthcareUS$86 billion

Vitamins and Dietary SupplementsUS$68 billion

Slimming Products

US$9 billion

Sports NutritionUS$5 billion

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Objectives• To provide an overview of the impact of 2010 events and trends over the forecast period.• To offer an analysis on how these trends and events could potentially influence future global, regional and category

performance.• To identify opportunities for growth and to find out about upcoming challenges.• To outline preliminary 2011 expectations.

Parameters• All values expressed in fixed exchange rates 2009 or 2010, except where y-o-y (year on year) are indicated.• 2010 figures are based on part-year estimates.• Historical data are expressed in current terms; otherwise constant where indicated.• Inflationary effects are taken into account under current terms.• Vitamins and Dietary Supplements is also referred as VDS• Cough, Cold and Allergy (Hay Fever) Remedies are also referred as CCAs

Objectives and Parameters of Global Briefing

Introduction

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Overall performance shows disparities based on economic recovery

Emerging economies support growth for the industry, while North America, Western Europe and Japan disappoint with relatively flat performance. Weak economic growth in these regions continues to be reflected in lower expenditure in consumer health.

Regulation becomes more active

Warnings, recalls and false health claims continue to dominate the regulatory environment. Regulatory agencies emitted or revised new guidance, enforced good manufacturing practices (GMPs) and increased their scrutiny on advertising.

OTC switches see more challenges than opportunities

OTC switches saw a handful of novel active ingredients introduced in the UK and Japan. Some OTC drugs faced challenges with threats of behind-the-counter (BTC) sales and reverse switches (OTC back to prescription).

Competitive expansion focuses on regional and local activity

Instead of global mergers and acquisitions, companies followed a regional and local approach of expansion focused in emerging markets with large populations such as China, India and Indonesia.

Private label and generic drugs gain strength

Companies increased their investment in generic drugs manufacturing amid the increasing demand for such products. Private label sees improved packaging and formulation, while generic drugs shift to the concept of branded generics.

Retailing expands to more channels

The deregulation of retailing channels allowing further sales of consumer health products was more evident in Asia Pacific and Europe. Internet retailing and direct selling also gained notoriety as reliable sources of brand and product information.

Self-care and ageing populations set public health policies

Governments and health authorities crafted new public health policies aimed to reduce the incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, which place a high burden on healthcare costs. People are taking an active role in their health.

New technology in digital media captivates consumers

The internet reshapes the advertising world in surprising ways. It has become a powerful tool for companies strapped for cash and wishing to reach a wide audience, not only in a local market, but also at a global level. More people do online searches to find information on health, medicines and brands.

Key Findings: Consumer Health Remains Resilient in 2010

Introduction

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Economy Health Expenditure

• A flat economic performance persists in developed countries, whereas emerging economies continue to grow and provide new sales opportunities deriving from larger consumer bases.

• The post-recessionary environment pushes consumers to remain conscious of their purchases. They are switching to low-priced options, private label and generic drugs in developed regions.

• Most governments slashed health expenditures given the rising healthcare and medicine costs. Many OTC drugs were de-listed from reimbursement and private insurance plans, and their expense was transferred directly to consumers.

• Public health policies are preparing to meet future demands of ageing populations and chronic diseases expensive to treat, so they need to manage their finances and expenses more effectively.

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Consumer Health in 2010

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

World - Consumer Expenditure

World World Growth

Co

nst

an

t 20

09

pri

ces,

U$

S b

illio

n

Y-o

-y g

row

th

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Public Health Policies Regulation

• Obesity rates continue to rise in many countries. Obesity is a major contributor to chronic diseases, including diabetes. The International Federation of Diabetes estimates that 435 million people worldwide will have diabetes in 2030, a 54% increase from 2010. The search for a magic diet pill has stalled with very few prospects in the pipeline. OTC obesity drugs are only represented by one ingredient, orlistat (alli by GlaxoSmithKline). Many slimming products are sold as foodstuffs or dietary supplements, yet their efficacy is unproven.

• Ageing populations continue to place a high cost burden on healthcare. Public health education based on prevention became more evident in 2010.

• In 2010, regulatory activity became stricter when compared to 2009. The number of recalls and warnings increased due to safety, efficacy and contamination issues. Products under stricter surveillance include analgesics, combination products, dietary supplements (foodstuffs), slimming products, herbal/traditional products, and sports nutrition.

• Several regulatory agencies are revising their guidance and good manufacturing practice (GMP) requirements to improve products’ safety and people’s health.

• Cash-strapped healthcare systems promote a broader accessibility to non-prescription drugs through more retailing channels, such as grocery and convenience stores.

Public Health and Regulation Initiatives

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20406080

100120140160180

Consumer Health - US$ Per Capita 2005-2014Asia Pacific

Australasia

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Middle East and Africa

North America

Western Europe

Co

nst

an

t 20

09

pri

ces

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• In terms of the most popular categories, analgesics, cough, cold and allergy remedies, and digestive remedies will see growth thanks to ageing populations, and to more OTC switches in developing countries. However, most novel OTC switches are anticipated to take place in allergy remedies since seasonal rhinitis and asthma have become global chronic health problems that need to be addressed through accessible medicines. NRT smoking cessation aids might continue to build higher sales due to the continued effort of many countries to curb tobacco smoking, along with a recent finding that leading anti-smoking prescription (Rx) drug, Champix/Chantix (Pfizer Inc) has been linked to serious neurological side effects.

• On the opposite side, concerns about the abuse of analgesics, and cough and cold remedies will push further regulation, yet it can represent a competitive opportunity for herbal/traditional products to fill in the gap with “safer” options. The safety of some topical analgesics, ie diclofenac, ibuprofen, and ketoprofen, is being questioned as the skin absorbs active ingredients in a different manner, potentially causing side effects. Laxatives remain controversial as they can cause chronic constipation or induce abuse in young bulimic people. Regulatory agencies are keeping a closer eye on the proper use of laxatives.

Categories with good prospects Categories with potential troubles ahead

• Proton pump inhibitors: omeprazole, pantoprazole, lansoprazole

• Allergy remedies systemic (fexofenadine)• Allergy eye care (ketotifen)• Systemic analgesics: non-steroidal anti-

inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)• OTC triptans, although still limited to a few

countries• Emergency contraception• NRT smoking cessation aids

• Cough and cold remedies: pseudoephedrine, dextrometorphan and codeine

• Analgesics: systemic and topical diclofenac, other topical analgesics (NSAIDs dosing issues), and acetaminophen (liver damage)

• Laxatives

The Influence of OTC Switches

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

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Consumer Health: Revisited

2010 Global Trends That Reshape Projections

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

High volatility in foreign exchange currencies created pressure in the supply chain leading to an increase in prices, where imports are an important component of production.

A high dependence on imports in Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East forced many governments to craft national strategies to attract pharmaceutical investment and foster local production.

Several active ingredients such as acetaminophen, dextromethorphan, pseudoephedrine and codeine, experienced further scrutiny and regulation across the world. Some regulatory agencies also issued a warning label on proton pump inhibitors related to a higher risk of bone fractures in the elderly population. Safety and efficacy concerns increased for analgesics, slimming products, dietary supplements and sports nutrition.

Industry growth came from investments in generic drugs, herbal/traditional supplements, and vitamins and dietary supplements. Expansion focused on some of the most populous countries: China, India, Indonesia and Turkey.

Companies followed a conservative approach toward consumers, who continued to see their incomes shrink in 2010. In contrast, broader options in consumer health products and brands were offered to people in emerging countries, where discretionary income was little affected.

The internet, mobile devices and social media made a significant impact on the dynamism of consumer health. More than ever, consumers around the world had timely and immediate access to health and product information. Moreover, national health systems communicated more effectively in the case of an epidemic or important risks related to public health.

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Growth may become more optimistic in the 2010-2011 projection in spite of consumer expenditure remaining weak in the US, Japan and Western Europe. Retail value growth will come from populous countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey.

• Self-care initiatives remain strong. People are being encouraged to prevent chronic diseases and to treat their minor ailments in a timely manner. Access to consumer health products expanded in 2010 through more OTC switches, retailing deregulation, and lower prices.

• Consumers are firm on their newly-discovered shopping behaviour of low-priced private label and generics as a result of the recession. This represents a challenge to standard brands. Similarly, consumers are adopting alternative treatments based on herbal/traditional products, dietary supplements and holistic practices.

Consumer Health Performance 2009 vs 2010-2011

Global Update

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%Consumer Health - Retail Value (RSP) 2008-2013

CH2009 Projec-tion

CH2010 Projec-tion

CH2011 Projec-tion

US

$ (

curr

en

t, y-

o-y

ex

rate

)

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Retail Value (RSP) - Projection 2008-2013

OTC

Sports Nutrition

Vitamins and Di-etary Supplements

Weight Man-agement

US

$ (

curr

en

t, y-

o-y

ex

rate

)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• 2009 was notable for its large global mergers and acquisitions (namely Merck & Co/Schering-Plough and Pfizer Inc/Wyeth), whereas 2010 followed a regional and local approach. The trend towards organic growth in 2010 is a reflection of the difficult economic times felt in 2008/2009. Challenging times are ahead for pharmaceutical companies, especially as drug discovery pipelines continue to dry up. Companies shifted their strategies by investing in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, securing future revenue. New investments were particularly strong in biotech, generic drugs, and consumer health operations.

• Johnson & Johnson Inc’s recall of several consumer brands significantly affected the retail value sales of the company in 2010. This event caused Johnson & Johnson to lose an estimated one percentage point in its global retail value share. The recall affected several countries, mainly the US. Competitors and generic manufacturers benefited from the recall by filling in the gap at retailers’ shelves.

• Sanofi-Aventis consolidated its global presence through the acquisition of Chattem Inc (US), and the joint venture with Minsheng Pharmaceutical Group (China) to promote sales of vitamins and dietary supplements.

• Novartis AG finalised the acquisition of eye care company, Alcon, after a long struggle with Alcon’s investors. The company also signed a marketing and distribution agreement with Nycomed for brand Pantoloc Control (pantoprazole) in 14 European countries.

Global Competition in 2010

Global Update

6%

3%

3%2%

2%

83%

Global Company Shares 2009Retail Value RSP - % breakdown

Johnson & Johnson Inc

GlaxoSmithKline Plc

Bayer AG

Novartis AG

Pfizer Inc

Others

5%

3%

3%2%

2%

84%

Global Company Shares 2010Retail Value RSP - % breakdown

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH acquired the remaining stock of Japan’s SPPs Co, a large producer of OTC drugs, for more than US$900 million in February 2010. The full acquisition will provide Boehringer Ingelheim with a good grasp of the Japanese OTC market that will help build the global OTC portfolio for the company, and make use of novel technologies developed in Japan.

• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd announced the acquisition of Ratiopharm Gruppe (part of Merckle Group), a leading generic drug producer in Europe based in Germany. The transaction was valued at €3.6 billion and was approved by the European Commission in August 2010.

Boosting global presence through regional expansion

• Hypermarcas in Brazil continued its expansion in March 2010 through the acquisition of local competitor Luper Indústria Farmacêutica in a deal worth US$27 million. Luper currently sells analgesics, medicated skin care, cough and cold remedies, digestive remedies, and vitamins and dietary supplements.

• In the US, Prestige Brands Holdings Inc acquired Blacksmith Brands Holdings Inc in September 2010. The transaction was valued at US$190 million and included the child-specific brand, PediaCare, medicated confectionery, Luden’s, and allergy remedy, NasalCrom.

Gaining strength in the local market

• Sanofi-Aventis acquired Nepentes, a Polish company with strong sales of OTC drugs, in May 2010. The transaction was valued at €105 million and was completed in July 2010. Nepentes holds a strong position in the sale of medicated skin care and herbal/traditional products in Poland, extending to Hungary and Romania.

• Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd based in South Africa, negotiated an acquisition agreement with financially embattled Sigma Pharmaceutical Ltd, an important manufacturer of prescription (Rx), OTC and generic drugs in Australia. The exclusive and formal negotiations began in August 2010 with a value set at US$900 million, excluding the retailing and wholesaling operations.

Building a strong position within one region

Mergers and Acquisitions Turn Regional and Local

Global Update

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Australasia is the only developed region growing at a healthy pace due to the weaker impact of the 2008/2009 global recession. Australia and New Zealand are working to harmonise their OTC drugs standards for improved future regulation between the two countries.

• Asia Pacific continues to provide new opportunities in China, South Korea and Vietnam. Japan, in spite of its leadership in OTC innovation, shows flat performance based on a very mature marketplace. Indonesia and China opened its borders to foreign investment, while India is revising its regulatory process to protect patents and standardise drugs under clear legal frameworks.

• Eastern Europe works on resolving infrastructure challenges due to its high dependence on imports and significant inflationary pressures pushing retail prices up. Consumers trimmed their spending in consumer health and looked for generics and inexpensive herbal/traditional products.

• Latin America, except for Mexico, which was affected by a deep recession, brings new opportunities for growth via new product development and a growing base of branded generic drugs.

• The Middle East and Africa are important targets for investment and growth in consumer health, especially given the minor presence of such products in that region.

Cross-Regional Comparison Analysis in Consumer Health

Regional Update

• North America experiences a significant shift towards private label and low-priced brands as consumers apportion their declining income. Vitamins, dietary supplements and herbal/traditional products rise in popularity as people want to prevent illness and to avoid paying more money for health insurance and medicines.

• Western Europe faces a significant increase in the regulation of vitamins and dietary supplements driven by the revisions of health claim dossiers by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Regional OTC switches are not relevant in 2010 as this involves a well-coordinated effort to achieve success. A weakened economy drives consumers to increase their purchases of low-priced brands, private label, and herbal/traditional remedies.

10-1111-12

12-1313-14

14-150.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Retail Value (RSP) - Projection 2010-2015

Asia Pacific

Australasia

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Middle East and Africa

North America

Western Eu-rope

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te

20

10

)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The Chinese government announced that it would allow more foreign pharmaceutical companies to expand operations in China. Moreover, it amended a patent regulation that clearly defines “patented pharmaceuticals” that are subject to compulsory licensing. The State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) is currently working on the implementation of good manufacturing practices (GMPs), which will be standardised with the rest of the world. These measures are aimed at reducing contamination issues affecting products and improving the image of China as a serious player in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition, revised health food directives are to be implemented to regulate the production, distribution and sales of dietary supplements.

• Dietary supplements expanded in India, especially multivitamins and protein supplements. Piramal Healthcare Ltd purchased all intellectual property rights related to OTC emergency contraception brand, i-pill, from Cipla Ltd. Abbott Laboratories then announced the acquisition of Piramal Healthcare Ltd in May 2010, valued close to US$4 billion. OTC emergency contraception is one of the fastest growing categories in retail value in India.

• The pharmaceutical landscape in Indonesia experienced a boost through the joint venture established between Singapore-based Invida Group and Indonesian company MUGI. Other companies such as Bayer AG are interested in expanding their presence in Indonesia. Alternatively, expensive imports resulted in high prices in Pakistan.

• German company Boehringer Ingelheim acquired the outstanding shares of SSP Co, a major player in consumer health in Japan. Boehringer Ingelheim sees an opportunity to expand as more retail channels were deregulated in 2009. Similarly, foreign companies are investing in generic drug manufacturers which are experiencing an important growth in that country.

Asia Pacific Update

Regional Update

05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

Asia Pacific - Retail Value Sales Projections Fastest Growth Countries 2009/2010

South Korea

Indonesia

Thailand

China

Malaysia

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The Third Intergenerational Report (IGR3) released in 2010 states that health expenditure will represent an estimated 7% of total GDP by year 2050 in Australia. The Australian government is moving to set up health initiatives that support prevention of chronic diseases.

• US-based Perrigo Co acquired Orion Laboratories to strengthen its portfolio of non-prescription private label products in Australia.

• The Australian Self Medication Industry (ASMI) promoted the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) as a good and safe alternative for the treatment of minor pain. Alternatively, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) continued its revision of herbal products for safety and efficacy, along draft guidelines for “Levels and Kinds of Evidence for Listed Medicines with Indications and Claims for Weight Loss” established in 2009.

• In terms of OTC switches, the National Drugs and Poisons Schedule Committee (NDPSC) meeting in June 2010 rejected once again the petition for switching asthma drug, Montelukast, to Schedule 3 status for the treatment of allergic rhinitis citing that the risk versus health benefit ratio was not met.

Australasia Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%Australasia - Retail Value Sales Projections

Australia

New Zealand

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The Strategy of Pharmaceutical Industry Development 2020 (Pharma 2020) was established by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation in October 2009 to support public health policy through the development of the local pharmaceutical industry during a 10-year period, and to ultimately improve the health of Russians (Health 2020). The programme aims to substitute the country’s high dependence on imports by increasing domestic pharmaceutical production by 50%. At least 25% of this production should be generated by Russian companies by year 2020. The Law on the Circulation of Medicines, effective September 2010, mandates a more transparent and obligatory registration of medicines sold in Russia. It also regulates the pricing of essential medicines under a new structure based on proper guidelines, price registration and monitoring, determination of mark-ups, and foreign currency issues.

• Pharmacies in Slovakia were allowed to sell non-prescription medicines via the internet from December 2009. This regulatory change supports wider accessibility of products and brands to consumers, especially in non-urban areas.

• The Czech Republic increased the value-added tax (VAT) on medicines from 9% to 10% in 2010 to achieve budgetary savings, while reimbursement levels dropped more than 6%. Alternatively, Romania faced high inflationary pressures on the price of medicines due to delay of reimbursements and expensive imports.

• Retailer Tesco plans to open its first in-store pharmacies at Tesco Extra stores in Poland, which will expand the sale of consumer health products. Sanofi-Aventis acquired local company Nepentes to increase its market share.

• China-based companies, such as Fenchem Biotek Ltd, are opening manufacturing and distribution facilities in Eastern Europe as governments seek to promote local production.

Eastern Europe Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Eastern Europe - Retail Value Sales ProjectionsFastest Growth Countries

Slovenia

Romania

Latvia

Belarus

Czech Republic

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• In early 2010, Brazil established a new law that regulates the sale of OTC drugs only through chemists/pharmacies. Self-serve options are no longer permitted. The government is reissuing new approval requirements and good manufacturing practices (GMPs) guidance for drugs. Important corporate activity is also seen in Brazil through mergers and acquisitions of local companies by large global (Pfizer Inc and Valeant Pharmaceuticals) and Brazilian (Hypermarcas) players.

• The Mexican government signed a decree in August 2010 allowing fast-track approval for OTC drugs already approved in the US and Canada. This action will make Mexico one of the top 10 countries with the largest number of OTC ingredients approved in the world.

• Along with the National Accord for Nutritional Health Against Overweight and Obesity, the Mexican government created the National Council for the Prevention and Control of Non-Transmissible Chronic Diseases, and instigated the government agency of National Council of Sports to promote the programme “Activate yourself, live better” to promote sports and physical education in the country.

• Argentina banned the sale of OTC drugs in grocery retailers and kiosks. Medicines can only be sold through chemists/pharmacies. Yet, this event did not deter GlaxoSmithKline Plc from acquiring Laboratorios Phoenix SACyF ('Phoenix') in June 2010 to develop sales in the booming Argentinean market.

Latin America Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Latin America - Retail Value Sales ProjectionsFastest Growth Countries

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Guatemala

Colombia

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Some of the highest rates of obesity and diabetes are already present in the Middle East. Sedentary lifestyles caused by the wealth deriving from the oil industry is being blamed as a major cause of obesity by nutritional experts. Adults and children are indulging themselves with foods and becoming less physically active. This health crisis is pushing governments to craft new public health policies based on prevention, treatment and self-care.

• Overall, there is a movement by certain African countries such as Uganda and Nigeria to attract investment for local production of pharmaceuticals to stop their dependence on expensive imports. India- and China-based companies are already seizing the opportunity via the establishment of manufacturing plants in the African continent. Moreover, West African Health Ministers (WAHO) seeks to formalise the research studies of traditional medicine to be incorporated into conventional medicine.

• Counterfeit products remain an important concern in this region. Popular non-prescription drugs by GlaxoSmithKline were seized in African countries, while Sanofi-Aventis began working with the Egyptian government to stop the problem through coordinated efforts.Merck & Co and Adcock Ingram set up a new business alliance to mutually promote and distribute their brands in South Africa. Merck & Co sees good opportunities for growth in South Africa and neighbouring countries. Teaming up with an important local player, Adcock Ingram, will provide added presence and value sales in this region.

Middle East and Africa Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Middle East and Africa - Retail Value Sales ProjectionsFastest Growth Countries

Cameroon

Iran

Israel

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The weak performance and high unemployment rate in the US pushed more consumers to buy private label over standard branded products, thus creating a higher competitive burden in the marketplace.

• In the US, consumer health product purchases will not be reimbursed from health savings accounts beginning January 2011. Only “prescribed OTC drugs” will be an exception. The move has upset both consumers, who now have to spend more money on their OTC drugs, and the retailing industry, which has to set up new systems to track “prescribed OTC drugs”. In addition, new dietary guidelines published in 2010 state that most people can get enough nutrients from foods and beverages rather than dietary supplements. This action could potentially cause a diminished optimistic outlook for sales of vitamins and dietary supplements.

• The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) did not impose limitations on OTC dextromethorphan sales due to an apparent rise in abuse rates, yet the industry compromised to work on enhanced education campaigns to curb abuse. OTC pseudoephedrine became even more regulated with stricter penalties if used for illegal drug purposes. Alternatively, good manufacturing practices (GMPs) are now mandatory for all manufacturers.

• Johnson & Johnson Inc’s performance in child-specific products, analgesics, allergy remedies, decongestants, and antacids was highly affected by the recall of many its OTC drugs in 2010. Competitors, private label and generic drugs filled this lucrative gap with substitute options and gained important shares in some of these categories.

• Health Canada pushed for more adverse event reporting for OTC drugs. It also approved the monograph for conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) and chromium picolinate in dietary supplements. Natural Health Products (NHPs), waiting to receive a sales licence after submitting an application, can obtain an exemption if companies want to sell their products before receiving the actual licence. Safety criteria must be met before the exemption is granted.

North America Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-2%

0%

2%

4%

North America - Retail Value Sales ProjectionsTop Fastest Growth Countries

Canada

USA

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d-e

xg-2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) opinions on the dossiers of vitamins and dietary supplements is reshaping the competitive landscape. Companies cannot make specific health claims if those have not been approved by EFSA. Positive opinions are only awarded to ingredients and products with proven scientific evidence.

• The EU is in discussions to possibly change the law on botanicals through improved guidance and standardisation. Alternatively, the Traditional Herbal Medicinal Products Directive (THMPD) will take full effect in 2011. Herbal medicines will require full licensing before selling them to consumers. The EU is also in talks with India about a possible Free Trade Agreement that may greatly influence the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry. India could become an important supplier of generic drugs to Europe, while European firms could gain better access to the Indian market.

• In April 2010, the European Medicines Agency recommended the withdrawal of medicated skin care products containing bufexamac due to health risks. It also agreed to publicly release adverse event data for all drugs.

• A weak economic outlook in Western Europe made many companies reduce their sales forecasts. Consumers continue to watch their expenses, especially since several non-prescription drugs have been delisted from reimbursement schemes.

• Europe has become the leading region in Electronic Health Records (EHR) technology, anticipated to help provide better healthcare and chronic disease intervention to the elderly.

Western Europe Update

Regional Update

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Western Europe - Retail Value Sales ProjectionsFastest Growth Countries

Ireland

Austria

Sweden

Italy

Finland

US

$ (

con

sta

nt,

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• There was important global progress in good manufacturing practice (GMP) initiatives, yet problems of contamination and toxic ingredients remained important issues to be addressed by regulatory agencies and the industry. China, Russia and Brazil expect full enforcement within the next couple of years.

• The line distinguishing vitamins and dietary supplements from functional foods and beverages continued to blur. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a draft guidance to help companies find the distinction to later market their products appropriately. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) continued to publish favourable and unfavourable opinions on health claims attributed to vitamins and dietary supplements.

• Thoughts of getting sick or preventing disease continue to convince a larger consumer base to take a more proactive approach to their health. On the one hand, they do not want to pay more for medicines. On the other, recent warnings, recalls and the influence of alternative medicine, through the internet and social media, have made people more sceptical of standard OTC drugs. Consequently, they are embracing vitamins and dietary supplements as a “safer” alternative. Dietary supplements are subject to less regulatory oversight resulting in a more profitable option for many companies, which tend to charge high prices for such products.

Vitamins and Dietary Supplements Update

Category Update

8%8%

7%

6%

6%64%

Leading Categories – 2010 Retail Value US$ mn

Combination Dietary SupplementsVitamin BTonics and Bottled Nutritive DrinksCalcium SupplementsVitamin C 08-09

09-1010-11

11-1212-13

13-140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

Vitamin D

Ginseng

Omega-3-6-9 (Fish and Non-Fish)

Sam-E

Protein Powder

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The H1N1 flu outbreak did not materialise as a significant health threat. Surprisingly, the 2009/2010 influenza season was milder than in previous years. As a result, retail value sales of cough and cold remedies were not as strong as expected. A normal flu season is expected for the 2010/2011 season, with a close watch on a new possible emerging strain of the dangerous H5N1 virus that affected Asia in 2006.

• Product contamination and increased doubts about the quality and safety of drugs caused more cough and cold herbal/traditional and homeopathic products to increase their presence on pharmacy shelves. Many of these products are now targeted at children, especially under six years old, amid regulatory restrictions imposed on standard OTC drugs in many countries during the 2007-2009 period.

• Antihistamines/allergy remedies remained an important generator of retail sales due to wider availability of OTC options, and changing weather patterns contributing to extended allergy seasons.

• Stricter regulation of pseudoephedrine took place through reverse switches and bans across the world.• Combination products underwent more scrutiny, especially when combined with analgesics they can lead to

unintentional overdose.• Retail value sales are growing fast in the Middle East and Africa, represented by strong brands of combination

products and antihistamines/allergy remedies.

Cough, Cold and Allergy (Hay Fever) Remedies Update

Category Update

27%

17%

17%

12%

10%

17%

Leading Categories – 2010 Retail Value US$ mn

Combination Products

Medicated Confec-tionery

Cough Remedies

Decongestants

Antihistamines/Allergy Remedies (Systemic)

Others

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140%1%2%3%4%5%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

Child-Specific CCAs Antihistamines/ Allergy Remedies (Systemic)

Combination Products Medicated Confectionery

Cough Remedies

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• A natural approach to healing induces companies to introduce herbal/traditional products that complement their standard lines. Moreover, old traditional brands have been revived as “safer” alternatives to newer products.

• Potential adverse events are an important concern for regulatory authorities. Health Canada supports a report on the monitoring of adverse events related to herbal medicinal products (HMP). The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) in Australia implemented a Herbal Safety Review, while the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the UK published new guidelines for the advertising of herbal medicines in late 2009.

• Retailers created more shelf space for herbal/traditional products. Their image and packaging have improved to match those of branded options. Several major players, Johnson & Johnson Inc, The Procter & Gamble Co, and Boehringer Ingelheim, among others, are introducing more herbal products to their portfolios.

• Expensive or limited access to standard OTC drugs in some countries of Latin America and the Middle East increased the demand for herbal/traditional products.

• Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and Ayurveda gained popularity in Western Europe, North America and Africa. Governments are issuing and protecting patents for local traditional remedies amid trade issues related to globalisation.

Herbal/Traditional Products Update

Category Update

56%

22%

8%

7%5%3%

Leading Categories - 2010 Retail Value US$ mn

H/T VDS

H/T CCAs

H/T Tonics and Nutritive Drinks

H/T Digestive Remedies

H/T Medicated Skin Care

Others

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

H/T Child-Specific Dietary Supplements

H/T Medicinal Teas

H/T Medicated Skin Care

H/T Smoking Cessa-tion Aids

H/T Tonics and Bot-tled Nutritive Drinks

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Recalls of Tylenol (Johnson & Johnson Inc) in several markets affected global retail value sales, with the largest impact in the US.

• Acetaminophen saw more warnings about potential liver damage due to overdose or abuse, while aspirin remained an aid in preventing heart attacks. Novel developments include the launch of an on-the-go “emergency aspirin” pack containing a dose of aspirin for people who are at risk of a heart attack.

• Diclofenac’s safety was questioned due to cardiovascular risks, while the European Medicines Agency (EMA) reverse switched topical ketoprofen due to risks of serious photo-allergic reactions.

• The demand for topical analgesic patches increased as they are perceived as a “safer” alternative to systemic options. GlaxoSmithKline partnered with Futura Medical to exclusively market TPR100, an OTC topical analgesic using transdermal gel delivery technology (DermaSys). Recalls of Tylenol prompted Johnson & Johnson Inc to launch Precise, a new topical analgesic.

• Innovation brought new delivery mechanisms such as quick-dissolve, fast-acting and single-dosing formulations. Combining analgesics with a sleeping aid became a trend, but only a handful of products have been approved.

• Complementary Alternative Medicine (CAM) to treat chronic pain took sales away from standard analgesics.

Analgesics Update

Category Update

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

Ibuprofen

Topical Analgesics/ Anaesthetic

Naproxen

Combination Products - Analgesics

Acetaminophen

US

$ m

n, f

ixe

d-e

x 2

01

0

23%

21%

17%

15%

11%

12%

Top Subcategories - Retail Value 2010 - US$ mn

Topical Analgesics/ Anaesthetic

Acetaminophen

Combination Products

Ibuprofen

Aspirin

Others

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Strong weather events (hurricanes, floods, earthquakes) experienced in 2010 caused an increase in sales of basic digestive remedies such as diarrhoeal remedies.

• Competition became stronger in indigestion and heartburn remedies as proton pump inhibitors became a longer-term alternative to antacids for many consumers. However, private label and generics are taking sales away from brands, while other companies are using novel promotional strategies to fend off competition.

• New warnings on the long-term use of proton pump inhibitors and the risk of some bone fractures became public in 2010 through a statement by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May 2010. Merck & Co invested in the ambitious launch of novel Zegerid OTC (omeprazole/sodium bicarbonate), yet its formulation could not be protected by a valid patent, and generic variants are expected to enter the market soon.

• The post-recession period in developed countries and the expansion of consumer foodservice in Asia and Latin America favour sales of fast food high in fat and salt. As consumers increase their consumption of unhealthy fast food, the use of indigestion and heartburn remedies is anticipated to rise.

• Ageing populations will continue to help sales of indigestion and heartburn remedies. More OTC options are being made available in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

Digestive Remedies Update

Category Update

28%

24%11%

9%

7%

21%

Leading Categories – 2010 Retail Value US$ mn

Antacids

Laxatives

Diarrhoeal Remedies

Proton Pump Inhibitors

H2 Blockers

Others

08-0909-10

10-1111-12

12-1313-14-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

Proton Pump Inhibitors

Indigestion and Heartburn Remedies

IBS Treatments

Child-Specific Laxatives

Antacids

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The high expectations for alli (GlaxoSmithKline) did not materialise in 2010. A high price and inconvenient side effects contributed to its disappointing performance in Europe. Herbalife, in contrast, expanded its Nutrition Clubs concept, mainly in Asia, which boosted sales of slimming meal plans.

• Thousands of brands are marketed under the slimming products of weight loss supplements, meal replacement slimming, slimming teas, and other similar products.

• Health authorities and law enforcement organisations became more active in stopping illegal sales by recalling or seizing misleading products. Many products have also been found to be tainted with prescription drug sibutramine or contaminated with toxic ingredients.

• People want to lose weight quickly and effectively. They are willing to explore new diets and products promising ultimately misleading results. In the search for the magic pill, people fall prey to the advertising and promotion of questionable slimming products.

• Most innovation is seen in supplements promoting satiety. Other emerging technologies include cellulose-based hydro gels that expand in the stomach and promote satiety.

• Eastern Europe is the region with the fastest growth in retail value sales as more products became available and the local industry developed, reducing expensive imports.

Weight Management Update

Category Update

49%

4%9%

33%

5%

Leading Categories – 2010 Retail Value US$ million

OTC Obesity

Slimming Teas

Meal Replacement Slimming

Weight Loss Sup-plements

Other Slimming Products

08-09

09-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

OTC Obesity

Slimming Teas

Meal Re-placement SlimmingWeight Loss Supplements

Other Slimming Products

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The shortage of whey protein has resulted in increased prices of sports nutrition around the world. The larger demand for whey protein used in packaged foods and slimming products affected the supply dedicated to sports nutrition.

• In a strategic shift, the largest companies are moving toward “gentler” and “nutritional” products (EAS and GNC brands) targeted at women and the elderly. Yet, most growth is seen through the purchases of teenagers and young adults, who seek to excel in sports or develop impressive muscular bodies.

• New public health policies created awareness about the benefits of becoming physically active. As a result, some sports nutrition products may see a boost in sales, especially if they are positioned for fitness enthusiasts who are not serious athletes.

• Contamination of sports nutrition with toxic metals, anabolic steroids and pharmaceuticals is a major concern for the industry. There are hundreds of questionable sellers of sports nutrition found on the internet, direct selling and the black market. Consequently, respected companies are working with top sports organisations, sports teams, anti-doping agencies, and research centres to guarantee the safety and efficacy of their products sold to serious athletes.

• Ready-to-drink (RTD) variants are becoming popular, yet shakes and protein bars account for the largest portion of retail sales mainly due to their lower price.

Sports Nutrition Update

Category Update

18%

2%

63%

7%8%1% 2%

Sports Nutrition – 2010 Retail Value US$ mn

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

North America

Latin America

Asia Pacific

Australasia

Middle East and Africa 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Forecast Evolution - Retail Value 2008-2014

US

$ (

fixe

d e

x ra

te 2

01

0)

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Internet retailing continues to grow at the fastest rates as more people around the world have access to computers and mobile devices, yet this channel only represented 5% of retail value sales in 2010. The US is the most innovative country in terms of internet retailing. Several web-based companies such as drugstore.com, amazon.com, soap.com and others lure consumers with free shipping and special discounts. Furthermore, companies are setting up internet stores for their products, independent from retailers.

• Many drugstores and pharmacies are extending their reach by setting up internet sales capabilities. Indeed, many have created loyalty programmes to retain consumers.

• Direct selling has benefited from expansion into Asia Pacific and Latin America, where personal contact and trust building are important generators of sales.

• Healthcare specialist retailers selling vitamins and dietary supplements have posted important gains as they offer a wider selection of brands and products to cater to different segments of consumers. Even non-conventional channels, such as warehouse clubs and gyms, have increased their sales of vitamins, dietary supplements, slimming products and sports nutrition.

Retail Sales Via the Internet Gain Strength

Retailing Trends

05-0606-07

07-0808-09

09-10-10%

0%

10%

20%

Consumer Health Retailing - Fast Growth Channels 2005-2010

Grocery Retailers

Health and Beauty Retailers

Mass Mer-chandisers

Internet Retailing

Direct Selling

Cu

rre

nt v

alu

e g

row

th31%

20%11%

7%

31%

Consumer Health % Retail Value by Channel 2010

Chemists/ Pharmacies

Parapharmacies/ Drugstores

Direct Selling

Supermarkets

Others

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Private label products are moving towards a premium level as the economy begins to improve. They are presenting novel formulations and delivery mechanisms that are outpacing the innovation of some standard brands.

• The big pharmaceuticals companies – Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer – are investing in the generics field in Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. GlaxoSmithKline acquired a stake in Aspen Pharma (South Africa) and signed a marketing and distribution agreement with Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (India). Pfizer signed an agreement with Aurobindo (India) through its division Greenstone LLC, although it will be focused on prescription (Rx) generics.

• Private label is being transformed from a “commodity” to a complex brand. Formulation, packaging and image of private label is now more sophisticated, especially in the vitamins and dietary supplements category.

• The low prices of private label are the main driver of sales. People are paying attention to the price and content of the product.

• Brand perception affects the selection of a brand versus a private label/generic product. Some consumers still do not trust private label/generic products, as they think their quality and efficacy are lower or questionable. In contrast, savvy consumers find such products an astute purchase as they pay less for a product almost identical to the branded option.

• Purchase priorities have shifted from brand loyalty to money-saving in a post-recessionary environment in North America and Western Europe. Established traditional brands have lost out to private label brands and generics, mainly due to value-added benefits.

• Consumers became savvy shoppers during the recession, and are aware of the savings that private label and generics represent for their spending. The question is how many of these consumers will go back to purchasing branded products? What incentives can companies provide consumers so they start purchasing brands again?

Private Label and Generics Remain a Strong Trend

Retailing Trends

76%

5%

5%

4%

4%

7%

Private Label Sales Split by Country 2009

US Canada

UK Germany

Japan Others

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• Educational programmes about self-care have become comprehensive to inform people about products, proper use of the drugs, and treatment of conditions. However, accidental overdose and abuse remain important challenges.

• Information about drugs is the basis of consumer evaluation of OTC medications. Packaging and labelling must include the proper language to help consumers understand the purpose and use of the drug. Manufacturers usually place special emphasis on the tagline as it is the first sentence that consumers read on the label or packaging.

• Although improvements have been made in the language used on labels and packs, there are some lingering technical or medical terms that can confuse people. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US published “Guidance for Industry: Label Comprehension Studies for Non-Prescription Drug Products” in May 2010 to improve label understanding from a “consumer” point of view, and not from a “technical medical” opinion. Comprehension studies should include a representative population sample to properly assess the reading and comprehension skills of “real life” consumers. People from the industry, who are familiar with pharmacology terms, tend to dismiss the fact that the general public might not fully understand some technical words, such as “antipyretic”.

The Effects of OTC Education and Ageing Consumers

Consumers of the Future

Future Problems with Ageing Populations

Risk of more interactions among prescription (Rx), OTC and herbal drugs, and dietary supplements

Hypertensive effects of oral and topical OTC drugs such as haemorrhoid treatments, allergy remedies, eye care, analgesics (NSAIDs), NRT smoking cessation aids, and dietary supplements

Accidental mix-up in daily medicine intake

Safety Issues for Consumers

•Failure to read the label or packaging carefully.

•Intentionally exceeding doses, and believing them to cause faster relief.

•Skipping doses leading to “later” overdose to make up for the missing dose.

• Women tend to pay more attention to information on labelling and packaging than men.

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Consumer Health: Revisited

• The world is becoming more rotund as a larger number of people across the world are diagnosed as obese (Body Mass Index (BMI) of over 30kg/sq m). As a result, the prevalence of chronic conditions such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease is also increasing. Governments have rushed to develop public health campaigns to address the problem. The main themes of these educational efforts include healthy eating and active lifestyles.

• Despite these efforts, people are still becoming overweight or obese, which poses a dilemma for the OTC drug industry. Doses are determined by average height and weight for the specific population. However, with bigger people increasing in number and skewing the average to the heavier side, dosing might not be as effective. Manufacturers need to resolve the dilemma of how a 55kg, 1.65m woman can be taking the same dose as a 100kg, 1.65m woman. Label instructions may need to include weight and height guidelines.

• In a hospital or clinic setting, health practitioners account for weight and height when dosing. But at the pharmacy or retail shelves, this guidance might not be available to people, who rely only on the instructions printed in the packaging or leaflet. As a result, the effects of an OTC drug on obese people might not be as effective as on their thinner counterparts. Conversely, an OTC drug taken by a petite or small person, out of the average range dosing, could potentially cause an overdose.

• Dosing has become a major concern for the industry, which opens the door to the speculation that future OTC switches should include a form of customised dosing mechanism, to appropriately address the effects of weight and height on people.

• Child-specific OTC drugs are also under scrutiny due to recent concerns about unintentional overdoses. Eventually, this concern could move to the adult population. In addition, the fact that clinical studies are being moved away from the target localised population to low-cost countries such as India, Russia, and Mexico, may cast doubts on the future efficacy of a drug. Diet, weather, and historic health records can also skew the results for other populations.

Obesity Implications in Future Health

Consumers of the Future

KuwaitUS

EgyptUnited Arab Emirates

MexicoVenezuela

Saudi ArabiaJordan

GuatemalaNew Zealand

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Obese Population (BMI 30kg/Sq M or More) 2010

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Introduction

2010 Global Trends Influencing Consumer Health

Global Update

Regional Update

Category Update

Retailing Trends

Consumers of the Future

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

The economy will improve at a slow pace in North America and Western Europe, which will push companies to continue their investments in the development of consumer health markets in other regions such as Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, which could provide better return on their investments.

Regulatory agencies will pursue further regulation related to adverse events, dosing, and interactions with prescription drugs. Health claims in vitamins, dietary supplements, herbal/traditional products and weight management products will remain a hot button issue for health agencies and the industry.

Pricing of standard brands will face increasing pressures from private label and generic drugs. Retailing developments will remain highly localised. The opening of new channels depends on the openness of the regulatory agency, the pressure from the medical and pharmacy community, and the local perception of consumer health products.

Most OTC switching activity will be seen in emerging economies where new safe and efficacious treatments are needed to promote self-care. In this case, OTC switching will be based on active ingredients already approved as OTC in other countries.

The internet and social media are anticipated to provide even more information on health issues, products and brands.

Preliminary Expectations for 2010/2011

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Winners

Losers

Vitamins, dietary supplements, herbal/traditional

The search for novel dietary supplements is never ending. The industry of dietary supplements is concerned about regulatory initiatives that could affect future sales. Scientific evidence about health claims, compliance with general manufacturing practices, and stricter rules on advertising and promotion are reshaping this category.

Cough, cold and allergy remedies, analgesics

Changes in the weather, the urban environment, air pollution, and busy lifestyles influence the rising prevalence of allergic rhinitis in many parts of the world. Companies are aware of the financial benefits of providing effective and safe pain relief. Analgesics evolve as ageing and active lifestyles increase the causes of pain.

Eye care, wound careMature categories, such as eye care and wound care are not anticipated to increase significantly in the next five years. Eye care will see most growth through eye health supplements, whereas wound care will continue to face tough competition from private label and low-priced brands. Most wound care innovation will concentrate on prescription films.

Adult mouth care, ear careAlthough growing in importance, their small relative sizes will not have an important impact on future consumer health sales. Most consumption will derive from elderly populations as their oral health deteriorates, and ear wax and tinnitus problems increase with age.

2010/2011 Prospects by Categories

Beyond 2010 Expectations

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Consumer Health• This is the aggregation of analgesics, cough, cold and allergy remedies, digestive remedies, medicated skin care,

vitamins and dietary supplements, NRT smoking cessation aids, eye care, ear care, adult mouth care, calming and sleeping aids, wound treatments, OTC statins, OTC triptans, OTC obesity, emergency contraception, sports nutrition and slimming products.

Adult Mouth Care• Anti-mouth ulcer products, treatment of canker sores. Includes oral analgesics, namely painkillers specifically for the

alleviation of pain in the mouth (not all analgesics that are taken orally). Excludes standard mouthwashes except OTC products such as Corsodyl (to treat gingivitis, maintain oral hygiene and treat oral thrush/mouth ulcers).

Analgesics• Analgesics covers pain-relief medications. Products which include a pain-relief ingredient in addition to another core

function (eg a sore throat remedy which includes paracetamol) are excluded from analgesics and instead are included in the appropriate category (pharyngeal remedies, etc).

Calming and Sleeping• Sedatives both analgesic and non-analgesic. Includes herbal sleeping remedies.

Cough, Cold and Allergy (Hay Fever) Remedies• This is the aggregation of decongestants, cough remedies, pharyngeal preparations, medicated confectionery,

combination products, antihistamines and child-specific cough, cold and allergy remedies.

Digestive Remedies• Includes all products designed and marketed to treat stomach and intestinal problems.

Definitions (1)

Definitions of the Report

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Ear Care• Includes anti-inflammatory and anti-infective drops or ointments and preparations that soften ear wax.

Emergency Contraception• Only included where available OTC. Emergency contraception is a method of preventing pregnancy after unprotected

sexual intercourse.

Eye Care• Artificial tears, eye ointments and eye washes. Includes eye drops used to treat eye allergies. Excludes all products

related to contact lens care.

Herbal/Traditional Products• Traditional remedies are products that have a long tradition of use, a long-established reputation, and are considered

alternative remedies to standard healthcare products. Ayurveda and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) are included. Homeopathic remedies are excluded. Only packaged products are included.

Medicated Skin Care• Includes medicated products used to alleviate symptoms or treat skin or hair ailments.

NRT Smoking Cessation Aids• Products such as gum, patches, inhalators and sprays used to aid smoking cessation. Excludes herbal cigarettes.

OTC Triptans• Drugs used to treat migraines or cluster headaches. Active ingredients include sumatriptan and naratriptan. Excludes

analgesics positioned to treat migraines.

Definitions (2)

Definitions of the Report

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Consumer Health: Revisited

Weight Management• Drugs and products used to treat obesity. It includes OTC obesity drug (orlistat) and slimming products, commercial

dietetic foods and supplements specially formulated and marketed as being suitable for individuals who want to lose or control their weight. Slimming products is the aggregation of weight loss supplements, slimming teas, meal replacement slimming products and other slimming products.

Sports Nutrition• Included are sports supplements that contain one or more of the following ingredients: soy protein; whey protein;

creatine; L-carnitine; and amino acids. The products are sold in tablet, powder, bar, gel or RTD formats. These products are targeted at serious athletes and gym-goers. Their principal purposes are to build muscle mass, to improve physical endurance and to boost energy. Note: mainstream sports nutrition products such as sports drinks (eg Gatorade), energy drinks (eg Red Bull), or energy bars (eg PowerBar) are not included here. Energy bars are found in Packaged Food; Sports Nutrition contains bars with more than 20g of protein. The drinks are found in Non-Alcoholic Drinks.

Vitamins and Dietary Supplements• This is the aggregation of dietary supplements, child-specific vitamins and dietary supplements, tonics and bottled

nutritive drinks, and vitamins.

Wound Care• Sticking plasters, bandages, gauze and surgical tape, and first aid kits.

Child-Specific Consumer Health• Products only specifically designed and marketed for children's symptoms. Includes child-specific analgesics, child-

specific cough, cold and allergy remedies, child-specific digestive remedies, child-specific medicated skin care, nappy (diaper) rash treatments, and child-specific vitamins and dietary supplements.

Definitions (3)

Definitions of the Report

Page 45: Euro Monitor Consumer Health Forecast Revisit for 2010-2011

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