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Page 1: EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2013 · 30/09/2013 . Abstract. This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights and Total

Flight Movements and Service Units 2013 - 2019

EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2013

EUROCONTROL

Network Managernominated by the European Commission

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EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the mid-2013 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service units forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry-related events.

IFR movements

For the first half of 2013, European traffic remained below 2012 levels. Despite the slow recovery observed over the last two months, flat economic outlook for EU, weak prospects for the Winter timetable as well as recent sharp reductions in traffic to Egypt weigh on the 2013 traffic forecast which shows a flight decline of 0.9% (±0.4 percentage point (pp)) for Europe. This is an upwards revision (+0.4 pp) of the flight forecast published in February (see Ref. 1) as European traffic has nevertheless been stronger than expected during Summer, notably owing to very dynamic Russian flows.

For 2014, the economic outlook remains much weaker than previously expected, and the flight forecast is for 1.4% growth (±1.5 pp) in Europe. This weak traffic growth is also explained by the continuing capacity reductions by major airlines to better match the weak demand, especially during the Winter Schedules.

By 2019, the forecast anticipates 10.8 million IFR movements in Europe, nearly 14% more than in 2012. From 2015 onwards, the growth settles at around 2.5%. For the whole 2013-2019 period, growth averages 1.8% per year.

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08).

ESRA08 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 9,496 9,765 10,140 10,516 10,851 11,232 11,590 2.8%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,461 9,591 9,838 10,104 10,332 10,587 10,847 1.8%

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . . 9,423 9,393 9,478 9,614 9,715 9,833 9,951 0.6%

H . . . . . -0.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.8%

Annual Growth (compared to previous year)

L . . . . . -1.3% -0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

While traffic is still expected to pass the previous peak in 2016, overall this is downward revision compared to the February seven-year flight forecast. This is a result of weaker 2014 growth, some local economic downward revisions and a more limited impact of future fleet expansion plans. Revisions at State level are often more significant, corresponding to the uneven development in Europe.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. capacity reductions in response to weaker demand) and upside risks (e.g. current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand when traffic begins to grow again). These are discussed in Section 6. By 2019, the high-growth scenario has 0.7 million more and low-growth scenario 0.9 million fewer flights than the base scenario.

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EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State.

En-route Service Units

Following stronger-than-expected traffic over the Summer, Total Service Units en-route (TSU) have grown more than expected in the intermediate forecast of May, which leads now to a revision upwards of the forecast. This revision is greater than that of the flights as it has been more strongly influenced by the growth of overflights and also by the growth of aircraft weights. 2013 is thus now expected to see a growth in TSU of 2.0% in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11), a revision upwards by 1.4 pp to reach 124 million.

Based on the greater TSU numbers for 2013 and the slower forecast flight growth TSU are expected to be about 21% higher in 2019 than in 2012, reaching in total around 146.8 million, representing an average growth of 2.7% per year between 2019 and 2012 for the baseline scenario. The high-growth scenario has 10.8 million more and low-growth scenario has 12.2 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+9% and -10% in terms of growth respectively). The low-growth scenario, capturing economic uncertainty and other downside risks foresees an average growth rate of 1.5% per year for 2012 to 2019.

Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11).

CRCO11 Forecast Feb13 Forecast May13 Forecast Sep 2013

Service Units forecast

TSU

(million) Growth

TSU (million)

GrowthTSU

(million) Growth

Actual 2012 vs.2011 121.6 -1.3% 121.6 -1.3% 121.6 -1.3%

Forecast 2013 vs.2012 121.5 -0.1% 122.3 0.6% 124.0 2.0%

Forecast 2014 vs.2013 125.7 3.4% 126.1 3.1% 127.8 3.1%

Forecast 2019 vs. 2012 147.7 22% 148.2 22% 146.8 21%

The EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service unit forecast for 2014-2020 will be published in February 2014, followed by the intermediate two-year forecast for 2014-2015 in May2014. Parts of the seven-year flight forecast will be refreshed in September 2014.

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Edition: v1.0 Released Issue Page iii

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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION

EUROCONTROL 7-Year IFR Flight Movements and

Service units Forecast 2013-2019

Edition Number : v1.0 Edition Date : 30/09/13 Status : Released Issue Intended for : General Public

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Page iv Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

TITLE

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Reference Number: 13/09/18-59

Document Identifier Edition Number: v1.0

STATFOR Doc517 Edition Date: 30/09/2013

Abstract This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights and Total Service Units (en-route and terminal) in Europe in 2013-2019. It has been prepared by EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in September 2013 and it replaces the seven-year flight and service units forecast of February 2013 and the two-year flight forecast of May 2013.

This document contains a description and discussion of the main results as well as a comparison with previously published results. This September publication is a partial refresh of the February forecast in which the main traffic and economic indicators have been updated.

Keywords STATFOR Air Traffic Forecast Medium-Term Movements Flight Movements Trends Traffic Flow Service Units Short-term

Contact Person(s) Tel Unit An De Bondt X3209 NMD/PFR/FTA STATFORClaire Leleu X3346 NMD/PFR/FTA STATFOR

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY

Status Intended for Accessible via Working Draft General Public Intranet Draft EATMP Stakeholders Extranet Proposed Issue Restricted Audience Internet (www.eurocontrol.int) Released Issue Printed & electronic copies of the document can be obtained from

the Publications (see page iii)

ELECTRONIC SOURCE

Path: M:\OMR\FTA\STATFOR\Documents\517 MTF-MTSUF 13b report

Host System Software Size Windows_NT Microsoft Word 10.0 13.9 Kb

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Publications EUROCONTROL Headquarters 96 Rue de la Fusée B-1130 BRUSSELS Tel: +32 (0)2 729 4715 Fax: +32 (0)2 729 5149 E-mail: [email protected] Open on 08:00 - 15:00 UTC from Monday to Thursday, incl.

DOCUMENT APPROVAL

The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved the present issue of this document.

© 2013 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. The use of the document is at the user’s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page v

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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present document. EDITION NUMBER

EDITION DATE

INFOCENTRE REFERENCE

REASON FOR CHANGE PAGES

AFFECTED

v0.1 26/09/13 Draft for internal review All

v1.0 30/09/13 Final version All

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CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1

2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2013...............................................2

3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................8

4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019 .................................................................10

4.1 Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................10 4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)..........................................................................................12 4.3 Comparison with previous forecast.........................................................................................15

5. SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2019...................................................................17

5.1 En-route Service Units ............................................................................................................17 5.2 Terminal Service Units ............................................................................................................20

6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH................................................................21

7. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................22

Annex A. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS ..........................................................23

A.1 ESRA08...................................................................................................................................23 A.2 Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................23 A.3 Functional Airspace Blocks.....................................................................................................25 A.4 Performance Scheme Terminal Charging Zones (TCZ) .........................................................26

Annex B. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS .......................................27

B.1 Economic growth.....................................................................................................................27 B.2 Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................31 B.3 Airline schedules .....................................................................................................................34

Annex C. SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE ...........37

Annex D. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................40

Annex E. STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST............50

Annex F. SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE 53

Annex G. SEVEN-YEAR TERMINAL SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TERMINAL CHARGING ZONE ..........................................................................59

Annex H. REFERENCES .......................................................................................65

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List of Figures. Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ..................................................... i Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State................................................... ii Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11).

.......................................................................................................................................... ii Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2013 and 2014 have seen further downward revisions.

(Source: Oxford Economics) .............................................................................................2 Figure 5. Actual traffic of 2013 compared with the intermediate forecast of May 2013............3 Figure 6. Egypt traffic (overflights excluded) hit 50% below last year on August 31st ..............3 Figure 7. Second year of traffic losses in the Winter months have now turned into weak-to-

zero growth over the Summer for the main contributors to European traffic.....................5 Figure 8. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower.....................................................5 Figure 9. Russia is the non-European destination adding most flights. ...................................6 Figure 10. Low-cost is the only segment back to growth since this Summer schedule ...........7 Figure 11. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 2010-2013................7 Figure 12. No sign of recovery for the 2013 and 2014 EU GDP forecasts..............................8 Figure 13. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been slightly

revised downwards for 2013 and 2014 by 0.2 pp remaining at +2% from 2015 onwards.9 Figure 14. Summary of forecast for Europe. ..........................................................................10 Figure 15. States forecast detail for 2013. .............................................................................11 Figure 16. States forecast detail for 2014. .............................................................................12 Figure 17. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012...................................................13 Figure 18. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v 2012). .............14 Figure 19. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012.................................................14 Figure 20. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012. ..........................................15 Figure 21. For Europe, current 2013 forecast slightly exceeds the February forecast with

reduced bands of confidence and future growth as from 2014 has been moderated. ....16 Figure 22. Total traffic forecast revision for 2019 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL).......16 Figure 23: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe............................................18 Figure 24: Comparison 2012-2019 of the forecast between the current forecast and May

2014 for CRCO11 Area...................................................................................................19 Figure 25. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019.........................19 Figure 26. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the PScheme Area as

defined in January 2013 (forecast from 2013) ................................................................20 Figure 27. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................23 Figure 28. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. ..........................................24 Figure 29. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. ................................................25 Figure 30. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission as of August 2012. .................25 Figure 31. Map of concerned airports according to their size (TCZs notified by Single

European States as covered by the charging regulation dated January 2013) ..............26 Figure 32. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook 2013-14 for EU27 has been

revised downwards and is now slightly contracting in 2013. Gradual recovery is observed as of 2014 to evolve to similar levels of growth in the later years. ..................27

Figure 33. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2013-2015 for EU27: constant downward revisions from end 2011 onwards..................................................................28

Figure 34. Compared to the last forecast, GDP of almost all States have been revised down in 2013 and 2014. ...........................................................................................................29

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Figure 35. Compared to the last forecast, GDP revisions are more balanced for 2019. ........29 Figure 36. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.................................................................................29 Figure 37. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone...............................................................30 Figure 38. GDP growth by Traffic Region. .............................................................................31 Figure 39. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone..................................................32 Figure 40. The schedules expect a monthly increase of around +1% to +5% for Europe until

the end of the year. .........................................................................................................35 Figure 41. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................37 Figure 42. Flights on main flow categories in Europe ............................................................38 Figure 43. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe ...........................39 Figure 44. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019 ......................................40 Figure 45. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019..................................45 Figure 46. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014. ....................50 Figure 47. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2013-2014. .........52 Figure 48. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019. ....................53 Figure 49. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service unit growth 2008-2019. ..........56 Figure 50. Forecast Summary: Terminal Navigation Service Units per Terminal Charging

Zone (as defined in 2013). ..............................................................................................59 Figure 51. Forecast Summary: Growth of Terminal Navigation Service Units per Terminal

Charging Zone (as defined in 2013)................................................................................61

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EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR) flight movements, total service units (en-route) and terminal service units for 2013 to 2019 prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in September 2013. This replaces the previous forecasts, such as those issued in February 2013 (Ref. 1), April 2013 (Ref. 2) and the intermediate forecast published in May 2013 (Ref 3).

After requests by stakeholders, and in particular to allow the capacity-planning process to use the most up-to-date information, the STATFOR now refreshes the main inputs to the forecast mid-year in addition to its full revision of the seven-year forecast published each February.

For this update, three changes have been made:

the assumptions on economic growth have been updated using economic forecasts available in mid-August;

the traffic baseline has been re-aligned to take into account actual traffic to the end of August;

adjustments and assumptions for taking into account the impact of recent events such as airlines failures, unrest in Egypt and Syria, re-routings in Poland, recent trends of Russian flows, fleet reduction on European traffic.

For all input assumptions, see the description in Annex B.

The forecast method is similar to the one used in the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast published in February 2013 and described in Ref 1.

This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, starting with a discussion of traffic in 2013 (Section 2), the assumptions made in the forecast scenarios (Section 3), some highlights from first the flight forecast then the service units forecast (Section 4 and 5), and the risks going with this forecast (Section 6). More details are provided in the annexes: geographical definitions (Annex A), forecast assumptions (Annex B), flight forecast details for Europe as a whole (Annex C) then flight forecast totals per State (Annex D), two-year forecast of en-route service units per state (Annex E), the seven-year forecast per state of total en-route service units (Annex F) and, for the first time in this report, the seven-year forecast of terminal service units per charging zone (Annex G.) The detail of the flight forecast for each traffic zone (usually the same as “State”) is provided on STATFOR website (Ref. 4).

The next seven-year outlook for IFR flights and service units 2014-2020 will be published in February 2014.

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2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2013

Traffic growth in 2013 has been marked by economic weakness in much of Europe and by further fleet reductions of airlines as their restructuring projects add to the general traffic decline, in particular of domestic traffic. However, the start of the Summer schedule showed some signs of improvement: August was the first month of growth in a period of 18 months for Europe.

The economic forecasts for 2013 had been revised sharply downwards in 2012, with continuing but smaller reductions during 2013 itself (see Figure 4), The economies of Germany and France grew faster than expected in the second quarter, pulling the Euro zone out of an 18 month-long recession, but only just, leaving an expectation of decline in GDP overall (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2013 and 2014 have seen further downward revisions. (Source: Oxford Economics)

Financial results of the major carriers during the second quarter have been better than 2012 Restructuring efforts are starting to show results and stability in fuel prices and foreign exchanges rates helped. Nevertheless, the forward outlook appears to be weakening, with a number of airlines reporting lower yields, and reduced expectations for the coming Winter.

Despite this, traffic volumes have been consistently lower than 2012 during the Winter 2012/13, which induced a downward revision to the forecast update of European traffic in May. As expected, since Summer schedule was put in place, the situation has slightly improved. Summer traffic remained stable with some variations across the months and within the May forecast ranges, but slightly below the traffic levels of last year, due to the French strikes in June this year, the boost in traffic resulting from the Olympics and EURO12 football in 2012. August 2013 finished slightly higher (0.4%) than last year and at the top end of the monthly forecast published in May (Figure 5). August was also the first month of growth in 18 months thanks to increasing arrivals to and departures from Europe (+3.2% on average for Summer) and strong overflights (on average +22.4% for Summer).

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August’s growth has been moderated by important losses of the traffic towards Egypt due to the local unrests. After August 15th, several airlines have stopped flying to Egypt. Arrival/departures were down by 50% at the end of August (Figure 6), a situation which continues into September.

Figure 5. Actual traffic of 2013 compared with the intermediate forecast of May 2013.

Traffic reductions continue to be especially visible on internal traffic flows within the ESRA, which have decreased by more than 3% compared to 2012. Nevertheless, we saw some improvement this Summer when the internals decreased on average by 1.4% over Summer compared to -3.3% during summer last year. At State level, reductions in domestic traffic were observed for most countries and also for the main contributors of European traffic (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK).

Figure 6. Egypt traffic (overflights excluded) hit 50% below last year on August 31st

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It was the second year in row that total traffic dropped during the Winter season. While the 2013 year-to-date traffic is still below 2012, the Summer has seen something closer to the forecast recovery. This is notably true for the 5 busiest states (Figure 7). The latter have all seen their domestic traffic contracting since the beginning of the year. Since the Summer schedule was in place, total traffic increased for UK, France and Germany thanks to their growing overflights and in addition in particular for UK, resulting from increasing arrival/departures.

UK’s total traffic is back to growth since April (+1.4% on average since the Summer schedule) despite its weak internals -1.9% on average over Summer. Both arrival departures (1.9% on average) and overflights (2.5% on average) saw growth since April.

France went back to growth since April, reaching 1.1% in August, thanks to overflights and arrival departures that are becoming stronger this Summer. Loss in overflights due to French ATC strikes resulted in decline for total flights and overflights in June (5.500 cancellations representing 4% of overflights in June).

Germany went back to modest growth (below 1%) since June thanks to recovering overflights (+4.3%) from Summer schedule. Internals and arrival departures remain weak (resp. -5% and -1.5% below 2012 levels).

Italy is the only top 5 state in decline for total traffic (-0.3%) in August. Improving overflight growth since Summer schedule (+4.3% on average) couldn’t compensate for the weak internals (-10% on average).

Spain, growing for the first time in August (+1.1%) since 21 months, saw increasing overflights (+6.1% on average since Summer schedule) and slightly improving arrival departures. Domestic traffic remains very weak (-16.8% on average since Summer schedule).

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Figure 7. Second year of traffic losses in the Winter months have now turned into weak-to-zero growth over the Summer for the main contributors to European traffic.

Figure 8 shows local traffic changes for February-August period. The first part of 2013 recorded more states adding traffic to the network compared to 2012. Turkey remained the main contributor, adding more than 200 daily flights (excluding overflights) with a growth percentage of +10%, mainly arrivals and departures. The United Kingdom, although adding less than 20 daily flights, has shifted from the right to the left side. Other contributors are situated mainly in the North of Europe: Norway (+2.9%), Denmark (+2.9%), Sweden (+1.1%), Ireland (+2.4%), Lisbon FIR (+2.3%).

On the other side of Figure 8, Germany is the country that removed the more flights from the network in 2013 so far, followed by Spain, Italy and France as a consequence of the weakness of their domestic traffic.

Figure 8. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower

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Outside Europe, Russia remained the number one destination from Europe adding traffic to the network (on average 125 flights per day in total both ways since May 2013 see Figure 9). Russian departures to Europe have increased by 10% since the beginning of the year (compared to same period 2012). Although this flow represents 17% of Europe arrivals on average (coming from outside Europe), this share jumps to more than 20% during Summer months. The top 6 flows coming from Russia which has grown the most since the beginning of the year are Turkey (+14%), Ukraine (+13%), Italy (+30%), Spain (+18%) and Greece (+46%), The latter jumped from no growth to above 40% growth rates from May 2013 or adding 35 flights per day (both ways) to the network. This trend has contributed to the growth of overflights flights in Eastern European States.

Flights to Morocco continue to recover around 30 flights per day both ways and are back above 2011 level since Summer 2013. Traffic from Tunisia remains below 2011 levels. Summer traffic to the United States was at the same level as last year compared to the losses of about 40 flights per day both ways during Winter. Traffic to the United Arab Emirates has remained constantly growing by around 20 flights/day both ways despite the weaker economic context. Traffic to Israel continues to be back to growth.

Figure 9. Russia is the non-European destination adding most flights.

Traffic development per market segment is shown in Figure 10. All market segments started the year in decline except for the charter segment as a consequence of the recovery of traffic to North Africa. The political situation in Egypt resulted in loss in charter traffic as of June 2013. On average we saw a decrease for the charter segment of 2.9% for the last 3 months.

Low-cost traffic is the only segment in 2013 with sustained, if moderate, growth thanks in particular to a strong Summer with figures up to 2.5% in July and August for a year-to-date growth of 0.4%. Traditional and business aviation shifted into slight growth recently (less than 1%) compared to 2012. The all-cargo segment continued to decline.

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Figure 10. Low-cost is the only segment back to growth since this Summer schedule

Figure 11 presents the monthly evolution of the total service units (TSU) recorded in the member states of EUROCONTROL in 2013 (CRCO11) that is used as our reference region.

After April that saw more TSU collected than in April 2012, monthly TSU in 2013 have continued to grow, overtaking not only 2012 values but also 2011 ones thanks in particular to a stronger traffic since the beginning of the Summer schedule. From the beginning of the year until August 2013 included, this represents a growth of 1.4% of TSU compared to the first 8 months of 2012 with the maximum of 12.6 million TSU collected in August for the CRCO11 reference region. Overall, TSU continue to grow more quickly than flights.

Figure 11. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 2010-2013.

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3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

The forecast is driven by past traffic trends and by scenario assumptions for the future. So, recent cuts in forecast economic growth (notably in 2013 and 2014) lead to cuts in forecast flight growth. However, the development of the traffic growth itself for 2013 and later is more complex to grasp as it involves the mix of a weak return to growth over the Summer and negative prospects (weak yield and outlook for the Winter season, but with some strength in the forward schedules).

The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions (see Annex B). The downward revision in the forecast can be understood from these data. In particular, since the 7-year forecast was last published in February (Ref. 1) the inputs have changed in two important respects: GDP and flight growth.

Figure 12. No sign of recovery for the 2013 and 2014 EU GDP forecasts.

Firstly GDP forecasts: Oxford Economics foresees further cuts in economic growth though in a lesser extent as in 2012, for 2013 and also for 2014 (0.2 percentage point downward revision on the GDP forecasts for both years compared to January 2013 forecast as shown in Figure 12). European real GDP will stabilize and contract by 0.1% in 2013 and 2014 is foreseen to grow more moderately (see Figure 13). In the later years, European economic growth forecast is unchanged overall, though some individual States are up and more are reduced (more detail on this in Annex B.1).

As far as the recent traffic growth is concerned, after a second Winter with important traffic reductions (-6.4% over Winter period from November until March, compared to Winter last year), Summer brought some growth, notably for the busiest States, as shown in Figure 12. Traffic is performing better as expected since Summer schedule thanks to increasing overflights (Russia flows) and stronger arrival/departures. Consequently, this might influence the traffic forecast upwards. The current outlook of the airline schedules until the end of December 2013 (see Section 3) shows a 3% to 4% growth, but updated schedules need to be looked at in the beginning of the October when Winter schedule will be put in place. On the other hand, future figures might be influenced downwards by fleet reductions and the current unrest in North Africa can contribute to lower traffic in the coming winter. This has been considered (see Annex B.2).

Source : Oxford Economics

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Figure 13. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been slightly revised downwards for 2013 and 2014 by 0.2 pp remaining at +2% from 2015 onwards.

In addition to these changes, traffic to North Africa and in particular to Egypt has weakened and is likely to stay so as long as political instability remains in the area. As a consequence, we expect fewer overflights, mainly around the Adriatic coast and over Turkey.

Traffic from Russia saw important growth and performs better as expected. We’ve built a scenario that covers this upward trend for overflights in particular towards Greece, Canaries, and Spain.

We deliberately did not include a re-opening scenario for Kosovo airspace. This event is still subject to political decisions and multiple scenarios of re-routings can be chosen. It is an upside traffic risk for FYROM, for example, but potentially reduces traffic elsewhere.

Other inputs include:

Airport Capacity: These numbers have not been refreshed for the MTF2013 September update. As for the MTF13 February forecast, these information was based on inputs from the Challenges of Growth 2013 study, via a EUROCONTROL project called the Airport Corner that collects directly from airports information about their future development and capacity plans.

Events and Trends: We have assumed scenarios to forecast the impact on air-traffic growth in Croatia when it joins the EU, on fleet reduction and Poland re-routings.

More information about these inputs and assumptions can be found in Annex B.

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4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019

Influenced by a flat economic outlook for 2013 and a timid economic recovery expected for 2014 for Europe, the new forecast is for 10.8 million IFR movements (±0.8 million) in Europe in 2019, nearly 14% more than in 2012. The first year of the forecast expects a decline in traffic by 0.9% reflecting difficulties for airlines "to come out of the crisis" coupled with traffic disruptions in Egypt. That being said, the rate of decline is more limited than in the previous forecast accounting for signs of very slow return to growth in the last weeks and Winter schedules slightly higher than last year.

From 2014 onwards traffic, like the economy, is expected to recover though at more moderate pace than in the February forecast with annual growth averaging at 2.5% per year.

Figure 14. Summary of forecast for Europe.

ESRA08 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 9,496 9,765 10,140 10,516 10,851 11,232 11,590 2.8%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,461 9,591 9,838 10,104 10,332 10,587 10,847 1.8%

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . . 9,423 9,393 9,478 9,614 9,715 9,833 9,951 0.6%

H . . . . . -0.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.8%

Annual Growth (compared to previous year)

L . . . . . -1.3% -0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

4.1 Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)

In the short term, the 2013 forecast in Europe is influenced by a mix of factors slowing traffic growth (airline strategies, unexpected events) which are only partially offset by growth causes elsewhere.

On the negative side: major European airlines’ strategy consists of continuing fleet reductions this Winter to pursue their cost reduction plans. Also, since the end of August, traffic to/from Egypt declined by 50%. The latter factors, coupled with no economic growth for 2013, are partly compensated by forthcoming Winter schedules globally slightly stronger than last Winter. The higher-than-expected growth of Russian traffic towards south of Europe (especially Greece, Spain and Italy) recorded during Summer is expected to continue this Winter, even if to a lesser extent. Very recently, some of the traffic demand for Egypt seems to be shifted to Spanish Islands for Winter. All together, these pluses and minuses led to an upwards revision of the 2013 traffic forecast which is now expected to decline only by 0.9% (±0.4 pp) based on total traffic (see Figure 15). The upwards revision (+0.4 pp) when compared to the February forecast, is also explained by Summer traffic growth just 0.2points above the central forecast, notably due to overflights in Eastern Europe affected by Russian traffic.

In regional terms, the vast majority of European States have seen their 2013 forecast lifted since the last February forecast. This is notably the case for the five busiest States. If Spain records the highest upwards revision amongst them, the outlook is still for a 2.6% decline in total traffic for 2013 because of airline restructuring. All States in the top five will see their internal traffic falling back (from -18% in Spain to -2.7% in France) in 2013.

In the top five, all States are expected to record in 2013 fewer total flights than in 2012 except UK which traffic is now expected to be 0.6% higher in 2013 than in 2012. UK is not the only State to show a recovery for 2013: in Western Europe, we now expect to see Belgium/Luxembourg (+1.2%), Ireland (0.7%), the Netherlands (2.5%) and Portugal (2.1%) to show positive traffic growth rates for 2013 (when compared to 2012).

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On the Eastern side, Turkey has been revised downwards for 2013 to 7.8% (against 9.8% in the 2013 February forecast) because of a cut of more than 1 pp in its 2013 economic outlook, and weaker-than-expected traffic (if still strong relative to other busy States) especially for internal and arrivals/departures as well as for overflights both explained by routing changes due to the conflict in Syria and to the sudden slump in Egyptian traffic. This downward revision is observed for the rest of the horizon too. Turkey nevertheless remains the State which will be the biggest contributor to the European growth, especially with high domestic traffic growth rates (expected to grow by 14% in 2013).

More generally, the slump in traffic from/to Egypt has a negative impact in the south of Eastern Europe; where most of the downwards revisions are recorded.

Figure 15. States forecast detail for 2013.

A 1.2% growth in economy expected in Europe for 2014 (see Section 3), is just half the economic growth expected for 2014 18 months ago. Figure 16 shows that European flights are expected to get back to growth too (+1.4%, ±1.5%). This is much lower, in terms of growth to what expected in the February 2013 forecast (-1.5 pp). Some signs of recovery are now perceptible earlier than in the previous forecast (additional traffic in 2013). However, in 2014, Turkish economy (thus traffic) will not develop as initially expected in February and the effects of fleet expansion are not turning out as strong as initially expected . Moreover, additional scenario to account for disruptions in traffic to/from Egypt created in this forecast weighs on 2014 traffic development (overflights reduction in South-East Europe, thus Turkey).

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Figure 16. States forecast detail for 2014.

4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)

After 2014, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.5% increase per year showing rates higher in the 2015-2016 horizon (+2.7%) than in the 2018-2019 horizon (2.4%) as capacity constraints grab the most important share in the demand (Section 3).

As Figure 17 and Figure 18 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the growth in percentage terms is much weaker in the more mature markets of Western Europe, it is still the busiest States (Germany followed by France, Italy and UK) which will see the greatest number of extra flights per day between now and 2019 (Figure 17). Turkey will both be the fastest grower (5% as average annual growth rate) and the biggest contributor of new flights to the European network in 2019 through both its domestic flights and international arrivals and departures (Figure 19).

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Figure 17. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012.

Figure 20 shows the corresponding Figure 17 at functional airspace block level (FAB). Danube FAB and Baltic FAB are expected to have the highest average annual growth rates (respectively 3.6% and 3.5%) over the next seven years. If Baltic FAB growth remains similar to the February 2013 forecast, Danube FAB growth has been revised downwards as both Bulgaria and Romania average growth rates per year have slowed down compared to the last forecast, notably due to downwards revision of their economic forecast (see Figure 34) . FABEC, the busiest European FAB will experience more limited average annual growth rates of around 1.5%. In terms of additional traffic, FABEC is expected to add around 11% more flights per day on average. South-West FAB traffic growth is expected to remain the weakest of the FAB (below 1%) over the seven years. In their low-growth scenario, both FABEC and South-West FABs will see their traffic stagnating (see Figure 44).

Annex D gives the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas (FABs, SES,…).

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Figure 18. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v 2012).

Figure 19. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012.

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Figure 20. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012.

4.3 Comparison with previous forecast

Figure 21 illustrates that the current forecast (MTF13b) for total Europe starts at slightly higher levels than the seven-year forecast released in February 2013 (see Ref. 1). However, from the second year of the forecast, the base scenario (dark blue line) is now falling off from the previous base forecast scenario (dark blue dashed line). Indeed, slight improvement in 2013 traffic levels, notably owing to higher-than-expected Summer growth and positive prospects for Winter growth, translates into a slight reduction in 2014 traffic levels when compared to the previous forecast (more moderate rebound and additional scenario related to Egypt).

This lower-than-expected growth in traffic from 2014 can be analysed as a level shift (down) compared to the February forecast, globally. The first reason for the change, at European level over the seven-year horizon, is partly attributable to the slower traffic development in 2014. Moreover, Turkey can be identified amongst the States seeing one the biggest downwards revision of GDP (especially in the first two years), which leads to slower Turkish traffic development until 2019. Also, compared to the February forecast, fleet expansion in Turkey has a more moderate effect. By 2019, Turkey is now expected to see 10% less traffic than in February forecast (see Figure 22).

Compared to the February forecast, the overall difference in total traffic at European level is of 1% less in 2014 and increasing each year up until 3% less by 2019. This results in an average annual growth rate below 2% over the seven years while it was above in the MTF13.

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Figure 21. For Europe, current 2013 forecast slightly exceeds the February forecast with reduced bands of confidence and future growth as from 2014 has been moderated.

Figure 22 depicts the size of the revisions in this forecast for total traffic per State in 2019. Most of these initiate already in the first years of the forecast and are carried forward into the later years. The biggest revision is observed for Turkey as discussed in Section 4.1, but also for Azerbaijan where changes in routing patterns (influencing overflights) have been observed recently. Upwards revision in Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine are explained by the recent boost in Russian traffic towards Europe (Section 2). These changes further illustrate the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in network and route choice listed as one of the major forecast risks (see Section 6): in particular since a normalisation of traffic over Syria at some future unknown date would reduce some of these flows.

Figure 22. Total traffic forecast revision for 2019 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL).

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5. SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2019

Following stronger-than-expected traffic over the Summer, total en-route Service Units (TSU) have grown more than expected in the intermediate forecast of May, which has led to a revision upwards of the forecast. This revision is greater than that of the flights as it has been more strongly influenced by the growth of overflights and also by the growth of aircraft weights. 2013 is thus now expected to see a growth in TSU of 2.0% in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11), a revision upwards by 1.4 pp to reach 124 million.

Based on the greater TSU numbers for 2013 and a revised slower flight forecast, the TSU are expected to be 21% higher in 2019 than in 2012, reaching in total around 146.8 million, representing an average growth of 2.7% per year between 2019 and 2012 for the baseline scenario. The low-growth scenario, capturing economic uncertainty and other downside risks foresees an average growth rate of 1.5% per year for 2012-2019.

5.1 En-route Service Units

Short-term outlook Following stronger-than-expected traffic over the Summer, TSU have grown more than expected in the intermediate forecast of May, which has led to a revision upwards of the forecast, as for the flight forecast. This revision is however greater than that of the flights as it has been more strongly influenced by the growth of overflights (more than 22% over the Summer) that impacts TSU more as these flights are flown by heavier aircraft and also by the growth of aircraft weights.

2013 is thus now expected to see a growth in TSU of 2.0% (±0.4%) in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11), a revision upwards by 1.4 pp to reach 124 million.

Figure 46 presents the 2013 and 2014 total service units forecast per State prepared by STATFOR on behalf of CRCO at the end of September 2013.

The forecast of most countries has been revised upwards, in particular in North-Western Europe (e.g. Norway, Denmark, and Netherlands) but also in Eastern Europe (e.g. Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic). Amongst the main contributors to air traffic in Europe, UK, Germany, Spain and France forecasts have all been revised upwards by often more than 1 pp and all but Spain are now expected to increase their TSU in 2013. The forecast for Italy on the other hand is still a decline by about the same amount as expected in May 2013. Similar to Italy, TSU are expected to remain weak, often declining in South-East Europe as these countries are affected by the loss of overflights from Western-Europe to the Middle-East, a loss that can be attributed to the conflict in Syria.

Despite this revision upwards, there remains downside risk, in particular for the coming Winter as the economic outlook appears to be weakening with a number of airlines reporting lower yields and reduced expectations that could lead to fewer flights and TSU than forecast. Furthermore, the recent instability in Egypt is likely to further impact overflights down in South-Eastern Europe, which would also impact TSU. With regards to Service Units in particular, the fact that the average distance flown by Maltese overflights are not fully back down to their previous values after the end of the Libyan conflict (they are still around 25% greater than what they were in 2011) may represent an additional downward risk to the forecast publish here.

The total en-route service units in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11) are expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.7%) in 2014 compared to 2013 and reach 127.8 million. This is an upward revision compared to the 126.1 million units, published in May 2013, mainly linked to the greater forecast of 2013 as the growth rate for 2014 remains unchanged. This change might look inconsistent with the flight forecast that has been revised downwards from +2.6% to +1.4% but it is no longer the case when noticing that TSU growth rate has also been updated to account

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for its stronger growth last year compared to that of the flights, thus counterbalancing the revision downwards of the flights in the forecast.

Estimates of chargeable service units per State in 2013 and 2014, based on EUROCONTROL TSU forecasts and numbers of exempted service units in 2012, are presented in Figure 47. The chargeable service units in CRCO11 in 2013 and 2014 are estimated to amount to 122.4 million and 126.2 million respectively (based on 2012 relationship between total and chargeable service units and calculated on the baseline scenario).

Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)

Based on the greater TSU numbers for 2013 and a revised slower flight forecast, the TSU are expected to be about 21% higher in 2019 than in 2012, reaching in total around 146.8 million, representing an average growth of 2.7% per year between 1019 and 2012 for the baseline scenario.

From 2015 onwards, flight growth stabilises at around +2.5% per year (see Section 4.2). Following changes in the economic inputs and scenarios (see Section 4.3), this represents a revision downwards of the annual growth rate by 0.4 pp compared to the February flight forecast as of 2015, a revision that is also visible on the TSU growth by a 0.5 pp amount.

Figure 24 compares the evolution of the forecast between the intermediate May 2013 forecast (Ref. 3) and this new forecast release for the CRCO11 grouping. The annual growth of the TSU forecast after 2014 has been adapted downwards, resulting in lower 2019 TSU compared to the previously forecasted 148.2 million TSU in May 2013, thus a reduction by 1% of the baseline forecast, but remaining well within the forecast range.

Any user of this seven-year forecast is reminded to consult the entire forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (eg. the economic indicators could further worsen) and upside risks (eg. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-as-expected). These are discussed later in Section 6. The forecast range is particularly important the further ahead the forecast is.

For the TSU, by 2019, the high-growth scenario has 10.8 million more and low-growth scenario has 12.2 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+9% and -10% in terms of growth respectively). The low-growth scenario in particular, capturing economic uncertainty and other down-side risks, foresees an average growth rate of 1.5% per year for 2012 to 2019.

The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 49. The detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex F.

Figure 23: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2019/ 2012

TOTGR

H . . . . . 124,458 130,275 135,782 141,314 146,433 152,151 157,541 30%

B 119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 124,002 127,789 131,511 135,429 138,891 142,790 146,766 21%

Total service units (thousands)

CRCO11* L . . . . . 123,542 125,216 126,741 128,905 130,636 132,608 134,571 11%

H . . . . . 105,348 109,848 114,194 118,568 122,562 126,982 131,054 27%

B 104,941 98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 104,978 107,795 110,709 113,764 116,376 119,352 122,356 18%

Total service units (thousands)

PScheme ** L . . . . . 104,605 105,667 106,742 108,360 109,574 110,991 112,382 9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2019/ 2012

AAGR

H . . . . . 2.4% 4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

B 2.9% -5.2% 3.5% 5.0% -1.3% 2.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%

Annual growth

CRCO11

L . . . . . 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

H . . . . . 1.7% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4%

B 1.7% -6.6% 2.6% 4.5% -1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%

Annual growth

PScheme

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%

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* CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. ** PScheme stands for the sum over the 29 states that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting at the beginning of 2013 (28 EU member states minus Croatia plus Norway and Switzerland).

Figure 24: Comparison 2012-2019 of the forecast between the current forecast and May 2014 for CRCO11 Area.

Figure 25. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019

Average Annual Growth Rates 2019 v 2012

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5.2 Terminal Service Units

This report contains, for the first time, the seven-year Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU) forecast per Terminal Charging Zone1 (TCZ) prepared by STATFOR. This TNSU forecast is based on the 2013-2019 IFR flight forecast (Section 4) and uses the CRCO flight database for all States, except for Estonia which provided us with its own data, to capture the necessary information about the weights of the aircrafts. More details about the method can be found in Ref. 2. As for the flights and en-route service units forecast, this forecast is driven by the weak economic situation in Europe in 2013 and 2014. In total over the whole TCZ within the PScheme area, TNSU are expected to decline by 2.1% to reach nearly 7,600 million in 2013 (with a forecast range between 7,568 and 7,628 million). This is a stronger decline than the one expected for the flights which only shows a 0.9% decline in the baseline. In 2014, the TNSU forecast growth should slowly recover with a 0.9% increase (versus. 1.4% for the flights). Later on, the TNSU growth rates are expected to average at 2.7% between 2015 and 2019 (vs. 2.5% for the flights) and reach around 8.8 million units. The low scenario, however, stands for 8 million TNSU in 2019 which is below the TNSU value measured in 2008, the year when the greatest number of flights so far was flown in Europe. These are growth figures that are in accordance with growth of departures2 at the airports within each TCZ.

The detailed results per TCZ are provided within Annex G.

Figure 26. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the PScheme Area as defined in January 2013 (forecast from 2013)

PScheme Total* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 7628.5 7816.3 8136.1 8479.6 8787.1 9116.3 9425.9 2.8%.

Base 7553.8 7590.6 7907.6 7764.6 7599.8 7670.3 7898.6 8152.2 8348.1 8572.1 8801.3 1.8%

TNSU

(in thousands)

Low . . . . 7568.7 7498.7 7579.7 7717.3 7813.3 7920.9 8026.9 0.5%

High . . . . -1.8%. 2.5% 4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8%

Base -6.9% 0.5% 4.2% -1.8% -2.1% 0.9% 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 1.8%

Growth

Low . . . . -2.5%. -0.9% 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5%

*PScheme stands for the sum over the 29 states that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting at the beginning of 2013 (28 EU member states minus Croatia plus Norway and Switzerland)

1 The list of airports, thus Terminal Charging Zones, included in this report has not changed compared to the previous forecast (see Ref. 2). 2 Note that the notion of “departures” includes both international and domestic flights and is thus different from the definition traditionally used in STATFOR documents that only accounts for international flights in the departures and provide a separate figure for the domestic traffic (i.e. internal).

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6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight and service unit forecasts are prepared in conditions of a fragile economic situation with risk of a slower recovery than expected and downside effects on traffic development.

The main sources of uncertainty in the intermediate forecast can be summarised as follows:

The economic forecasts (Annex B.1) used here were updated in August 2013. The economic outlook remains uncertain and the return to growth is likely to be delayed. Experience of recent years suggests that we could still see further downward revisions in growth in 2014, and further delay of the recovery. The low scenario provides some guidance here.

Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg. Spain, France). Such state control measures and political decisions on centralization of air traffic services might lead to industrial unrest. The same applies for the private sector where air industry operators might have to handle protest from the workforce against saving plans (day-to-day flight disruption). These represent a downside risk for future traffic development as presented in this report.

Load factors remain at or near record highs. When traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors might be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. From the present position, the eventual recovery could come more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an upside risk.

Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the number of overflights. Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our scenario, though clearly at some point this network disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse.

More generally, future network changes (eg. new routes) are not modeled by the forecast such as the Kosovo re-opening. Traffic distribution in the South-East axis could change from 2014 depending on the approach chosen for the re-integration of the Kosovo airspace, which represents an upside risk for some States, but a downside risk for others.

The current airline schedules until the end of December 2013 foresee 3 to-4% growth (see Section 3), but updated schedules need to be looked at in the beginning of the October when Winter schedule will be put in place. We see this as a downside risk: airlines are more likely to revise their schedules downwards from where they are now, than upwards.

Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be the new holiday “destination of preference” in a given year. The recent political instability in both Egypt and Tunisia has led to more variability in tourism destinations. We have included a scenario for a gradual recovery of traffic to Egypt, but a faster or slower recovery is certainly possible. On the whole this is more likely an upside risk (a faster recovery than in our scenarios).

Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer.

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an H1N1 flu pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.

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7. GLOSSARY

AAGR Average annual growth ACC Area Control Centre AEA Association of European Airlines B (in tables) Baseline Scenario CFMU Central Flow Management Unit3 CRCO11 Current states participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex A.1) ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU27 European Union (27 States) FAB Functional Airspace Block FIR Flight Information Region GDP Gross Domestic Product H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation IFR Instrument Flight Rules L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario MTF Medium-Term Forecast MTF12 February 2012 publication of the MTF MTF13 February 2013 publication of the MTF MTF12b September 2012 publication of the MTF MTOW Maximum Take-Off Weight OE Oxford Economics Ltd pp percentage point PScheme States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference (EU27,

Norway and Switzerland) SES Single European Sky SID STATFOR Interactive Dashboard STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service STF Short-Term Forecast TCZ Terminal Charging Zone (a grouping of airports) TNSU Terminal Navigation Service Units TR Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs) TSU Total Service Units TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Luxembourg,

Serbia and Montenegro) UIR Upper Flight Information Region

Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 5).

3 Now Directorate Network Management but still referred to as CFMU for traffic data.

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ANNEX A. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS

A.1 ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia and Latvia), though still within ECAC.

Figure 27. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small.

A.2 Traffic regions

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.

Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 28 (for example in Figure 43). Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic zones (=States), which are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity.

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As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the previous section) and Other Europe.

For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an Eastern region.

The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.

The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 29.

Figure 28. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country

ESRA North-West

EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA Mediterranean

GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

Other Europe

BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR

North Atlantic

C, K, P

Mid-Atlantic

M, T

South-Atlantic

S

North-Africa

DA, DT, GM, HE, HL

Southern Africa

D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)

Middle-East

L, O (except OA, OP)

Asia/Pacific A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other Europe)

The next forecast MTF2014 published in February will report for the first time on EU28, taking the accession of Croatia into account.

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Figure 29. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics.

A.3 Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2013 to 2019 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 30). FAB initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic management network.

Figure 30. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission as of August 2012.

Source: EUROCONTROL PRU

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A.4 Performance Scheme Terminal Charging Zones (TCZ)

Figure 31. Map of concerned airports according to their size (TCZs notified by Single European States as covered by the charging regulation dated January 2013)

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ANNEX B. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

B.1 Economic growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford Economics Ltd (OE). These are shown for specific States4 in Figure 36. For all other States, the growth of the traffic region is used (See Figure 37). Data for the MTF September 2013 update (MTF13b) originate from the August 2013 update of the OE GDP forecast.

The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets5 from these forecasts.

The current August data show a light downward revision of the GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 with no change from 2015 onwards for overall Europe. Figure 32 illustrates how the economic outlook has changed for EU27 since the MTF13b update.

Figure 32. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook 2013-14 for EU27 has been revised downwards and is now slightly contracting in 2013. Gradual recovery is observed as of 2014 to evolve to similar levels of growth in the later years.

When inspecting the data in more detail, most of the GDP forecasts per state (Figure 36) have been revised downwards for the 2013-2019 period. Figure 33 shows the evolution of OE GDP forecasts for the EU27 zone in 2013 to 2015 published from 2010 onwards. For example, in the last 12 months, the forecast for 2013 and 2014 have been revised downwards by 0.7 percentage point.

4 In fact the forecasts are used to refer to ‘traffic zones’. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However,

Belgium & Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2. 5 +1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.4% for late years and

big States, +0.8%, -0.6% for late years and small States.

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Figure 33. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2013-2015 for EU27: constant downward revisions from end 2011 onwards.

Source : Oxford Economics

The Euro crisis has strongly hit the economy of European countries in 2012 and 2013. Some states remain in recession with the biggest contractions in 2013 expected for Cyprus (-10%), Greece (-5.6%), Slovenia (-3.1%), Lisbon (-2.8%), Italy (-1.9%) and Spain (-1.4%). However the economies of these countries are expected to stabilise or even slightly grow as of 2014 before coming back to moderate growth from 2015. A later recovery is expected for Greece and Portugal with contractions until 2015. Cyprus, which has been significantly revised downwards over six years (by -7%-8% in 2013 and 2014) is expected to remain in recession until 2016. On the plus side, Turkey, though revised slightly downwards, is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2013 and 4% in 2014 and by more than 5% in the following years. GDP growth in France (0%) and Germany (0.7%) have been revised downwards for 2013 since the last forecast. The UK is expected to finish 2013 with positive numbers (+1.2%) and Greece sees an upward revision of almost +1% to zero growth in 2014.

Overall, 2013 is expected to see almost no growth in Europe, with a GDP growth expected to drop to -0.1%. Growth will return in 2014, and stabilise around 2% towards 2019, well below the pre-2008 levels (average annual growth typically around 3.5%-4%). This last revision downwards is very minor and applies only in the short-term. No change is forseen for the medium-term.

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Figure 34. Compared to the last forecast, GDP of almost all States have been revised down in 2013 and 2014.

Figure 35. Compared to the last forecast, GDP revisions are more balanced for 2019.

2019

Figure 36. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.

Source: 2010-2019 from Oxford Economics Ltd,13 Aug2013 Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 13/08/2013

Actual Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.5% 3.1% 1.2% 1.9% 2.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Albania

2.2% 4.7% 7.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% Armenia

2.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Austria

4.9% 0.1% 2.2% 4.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Azerbaijan

7.7% 5.6% 1.5% 2.3% 3.2% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Belarus

2.4% 1.9% -0.3% -0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% Belgium/Luxembourg

0.7% 1.3% -0.5% 0.2% 1.8% 3.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% Bosnia-Herzegovina

0.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% Bulgaria

-0.3% 0.4% -1.4% -1.5% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% Canary Islands

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Actual Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Croatia -2.0% -0.2% -1.9% -0.9% 1.0% 3.6% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3%

Cyprus 1.3% 0.5% -2.4% -10% -7.8% -2.3% -0.2% 2.2% 3.2% 3.9%

Czech Republic 2.3% 1.8% -1.2% -1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

Denmark 1.6% 1.1% -0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Estonia 3.3% 8.3% 3.2% 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

FYROM 2.8% 3.0% -0.3% 1.3% 2.5% 3.7% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0%

Finland 3.4% 2.7% -0.8% -0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

France 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

Georgia 6.3% 7.1% 6.2% 2.2% 5.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.7%

Germany 4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

Greece -4.9% -7.2% -6.4% -5.6% -0.2% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3%

Hungary 1.3% 1.6% -1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%

Iceland -4.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Ireland -1.1% 2.2% 0.1% -0.4% 1.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0%

Italy 1.7% 0.5% -2.4% -1.9% 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%

Latvia -0.9% 5.5% 5.6% 3.8% 4.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%

Lisbon FIR 1.9% -1.6% -3.2% -2.8% -0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

Lithuania 1.5% 5.9% 3.7% 3.2% 4.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4%

Malta 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

Moldova 7.1% 6.6% -0.8% 3.3% 4.2% 4.8% 5.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

Netherlands 1.5% 1.0% -1.3% -1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Norway 0.2% 1.3% 3.0% 0.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1%

Poland 3.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 2.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6%

Romania -1.2% 1.9% 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4%

Santa Maria FIR 1.9% -1.6% -3.2% -2.8% -0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

Russian Federation 4.5% 4.3% 3.4% 2.2% 3.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7%

Serbia & Montenegro 1.0% 1.6% -1.7% 0.9% 1.7% 2.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Slovakia 4.4% 3.2% 2.0% 0.9% 2.0% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0%

Slovenia 1.1% 1.0% -2.2% -3.1% -1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1%

Spain -0.3% 0.4% -1.4% -1.5% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4%

Sweden 6.3% 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%

Switzerland 3.0% 1.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Turkey 9.2% 8.8% 2.2% 3.4% 4.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%

UK 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%

Ukraine 4.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3%

Figure 37. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone.

Source: 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug 2013. Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 13/08/2013

Actual Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Brazil 7.5% 2.7% 0.9% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

China 10% 9.3% 7.8% 7.2% 7.1% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2% 6.9%

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Actual Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

India 9.7% 7.5% 5.1% 5.0% 6.1% 7.2% 7.6% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3%

Israel 5.0% 4.6% 3.2% 2.8% 3.6% 4.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%

South Africa 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0%

Figure 38. GDP growth by Traffic Region.

Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Aug 13 Comments: Real GDP Growth. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 13/08/2013

Actual Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ESRA East 2.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3%

ESRA Mediterranean 1.8% 1.2% -1.6% -1.1% 0.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%

ESRA North-West 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

Asia/Pacific 5.5% 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%

Mid-Atlantic 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 2.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7%

Middle-East 5.6% 5.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

North Atlantic 2.6% 1.9% 2.7% 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%

North-Africa 4.3% -6.7% 8.3% 3.9% 3.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7%

Other Europe 4.2% 4.3% 3.4% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9%

South-Atlantic 6.0% 7.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4%

Southern Africa 6.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1%

B.2 Events and Trends

The ‘events and trends’ assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure and internal traffic. The effects considered are:

EU accession: Croatia’s accession this year is likely to boost its air traffic thanks to air transport and market liberalisation. The impact is expected to be seen from 2014 and is factored in by an additional 5% growth as of April 2014.

Failures of aircraft operators: some adjustments have been made either to model the recovery of traffic after an airline failure whose effects are already visible with a traffic decline or to model the impact of a failure and its recovery when it has only just happened eg. Aerosvit in Ukraine. Such events are modelled by short-term impacts (either upwards or downwards) on the concerned flows that are phased to change at each change of schedule to assume a return to previous traffic levels within the next 2 years as other companies respond.

Fleet reductions: some airlines have recently announced that they will cut the size of their fleet. This will lead to a sustained reduction of traffic on the main flows where aircraft are operated by these airlines. We assumed that the reduction in flights will be proportional to both the market share of this airline on the concerned flow and to the announced fleet cut. Adjustments have been

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done to the German, English, Italian, Spanish, Canaries, Estonian and Moldavian traffic.

We have included a scenario for the renewed civil unrest in Egypt, which started to have an effect on flights across Europe as of August 2013. Important losses in arrival-departure traffic for Egypt (down by 50%) have been foreseen until the end of 2014 as well more moderate drop in overflights for Turkey, Greece, Malta, FYROM, Cyprus and some of the States along the Adriatic. Other possible scenarios certainly exist, and the knock-on effects of this require further validation

Russian traffic for the arrival-departure flow is boosted by 5% over Winter and by 10% over the next Summer.

Poland overflights, re-routed as a result of ATFCM capacity reduction to a maximum of 135 movements per hour since FDPS failure at EPWW this Summer, have been adjusted downwards for an additional month in September 2013. After the busiest Summer months and during transition to the new system from November, no specific scenario has been applied.

Extra flight demand to Egypt seems to be transferred to the Canary Islands (see Annex B.3). Adjustments have been made to boost Canaries’ arrival/ departures by 0.8% in 2013 and up to 2.8% in 2014.

Seasonality: a recent trend is the growing divergence between stronger Summer growth and weaker Winter growth. We have included some adjustments to maintain this in the month-by-month forecast.

Figure 39. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone.

Source: Statfor Analysis and modelling Comments: Consolidation includes : trends from STF and future events such as EU accession, Airline Failure, etc Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 21/09/2013

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

H 0.995 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988

B 0.995 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988

Belgium/Luxembourg Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.995 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988

H 1.008 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028

B 1.008 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028

Canary Islands Total: Arr/Dep

L 1.008 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028 1.028

H 0.967 0.979 1.004 1.014 1.019 1.019 1.019

B 0.967 0.979 1.004 1.014 1.019 1.019 1.019

Croatia Total: Excluding Overflights

L 0.967 0.979 1.004 1.014 1.019 1.019 1.019

H 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

B 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

Czech Republic Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

H 0.860 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770

B 0.860 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770

Egypt Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.860 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770 0.770

H 0.992 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

B 0.992 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

Estonia Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.992 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

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2014 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

H 0.990 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

B 0.990 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

Finland Total: Excluding Overflights

L 0.990 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

H 0.997 0.992 0.9920.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

B 0.997 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

Total: Internal

L 0.997 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

H 0.996 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

B 0.996 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

France

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.996 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

H 0.971 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936

B 0.971 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936

Total: Internal

L 0.971 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936 0.936

H 0.991 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973

B 0.991 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973

Germany

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.991 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973

H 0.979 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954

B 0.979 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954

Greece Total: Excluding Overflights

L 0.979 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954

H . . 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

B . . 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

Iceland Total: Arr/Dep

L . . 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

H 0.993 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

B 0.993 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

Total: Internal

L 0.993 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

H 0.982 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

B 0.982 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

Italy

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.982 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

H 0.997 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

B 0.997 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

Moldova Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.997 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

H 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

B 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

Total: Internal

L 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

H 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

B 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

Poland

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

H 1.008 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079

B 1.008 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079

Russian Federation Total: Arr/Dep

L 1.008 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079 1.079

H 0.988 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971

B 0.988 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971

Serbia&Montenegro Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.988 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.971

H 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

B 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

Slovakia Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.987 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013

H 0.989 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963

B 0.989 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963

Total: Internal

L 0.989 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963 0.963

H 0.990 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

B 0.990 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

Spain

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.990 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967 0.967

H 0.996 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

B 0.996 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

Total: Internal

L 0.996 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

H 1.000 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

B 1.000 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

UK

Total: Arr/Dep

L 1.000 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

H 0.982 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977

B 0.982 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977

Total: Internal

L 0.982 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977 0.977

H 0.994 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989

B 0.994 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989

Ukraine

Total: Arr/Dep

L 0.994 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989 0.989

There is an argument that in modelling these changes explicitly, we risk double counting effects which should be picked up indirectly from a decline in GDP. However, we have noted that traffic can fall over and above the rate that would be suggested by GDP declines, and we consider this to be a way to capture that excess.

No adjustments have been made to model the impact of the EURO 2016 in France: this decision was taken based on the impact of the Olympics on the UK traffic that was not significant. The effect might be added in later forecasts, when the event is nearer.

B.3 Airline schedules

The schedules data originating from INNOVATA LLC have been used in this forecast. Experience shows that they can be used to look ahead only a few months. In this forecast update, schedules until December 2013 have been used. Figure 40 shows per country the expected growth as available from the Schedule data at the beginning of August, as used in the forecast. Recent Winters have seen late downward revisions in the schedules, and we consider this to be a significant downside risk for the coming Winter, too (see section 6).

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Figure 40. The schedules expect a monthly increase of around +1% to +5% for Europe until the end of the year.

Schedule Reference Date

01 SEP 13 Scheduled Departure

Growth SEP13 OCT13 NOV13 DEC13

-7% -3% -12% -17%Albania

-2% 13% 13% 27%Armenia

-5% -2% -2% -1%Austria

1% 5% -2% -3%Azerbaijan

15% 20% 10% 10%Belarus

-2% 0% 1% 10%Belgium/Luxembourg

31% 29% 26% 29%Bosnia-Herzegovina

0% 3% 14% 11%Bulgaria

-1% 5% 15% 15%Canary Islands

8% 10% 0% -3%Croatia

-9% -7% 3% 10%Cyprus

10% 8% 0% 1%Czech Republic

3% 4% 1% 8%Denmark

-33% -22% -24% -21%Estonia

30% 39% 27% 22%FYROM

-5% -2% -3% 5%Finland

-1% -1% 0% 3%France

25% 14% 19% 26%Georgia

-2% 0% 1% 4%Germany

0% 2% 17% 25%Greece

-4% -3% -1% 0%Hungary

8% 11% 12% 10%Iceland

4% 5% 7% 7%Ireland

-1% 3% 12% 8%Italy

-2% 1% 1% 6%Latvia

2% 4% 4% 3%Lisbon FIR

4% 10% 14% 11%Lithuania

14% 18% 19% 14%Malta

6% 7% 8% 20%Moldova

20% 21% 29% 26%Morocco

4% 4% 5% 7%Netherlands

4% 4% 4% 6%Norway

2% 7% 6% 3%Poland

-11% -4% 1% 4%Romania

-2% -2% -10% -6%Santa Maria FIR

9% 13% 18% 14%Serbia&Montenegro

66% 121% 194% 169%Slovakia

-3% -1% -11% -6%Slovenia

-10% -7% -6% -3%Spain

-1% 0% 10% 18%Sweden

-2% 0% 1% 0%Switzerland

Turkey 24% 25% 29% 33%

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Schedule Reference Date

01 SEP 13 Scheduled Departure

Growth SEP13 OCT13 NOV13 DEC13

Ukraine 10% 16% 7% 10%

UK 2% 4% 4% 8%

ESRA02 0% 2% 5% 7%

EU27 -1% 1% 3% 6%

ESRA08 1% 3% 5% 7%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 37

ANNEX C. SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE

Figure 41. Growth in Europe

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Figure 42. Flights on main flow categories in Europe

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 7,387 7,552 7,808 8,059 8,276 8,526 8,752 . . . . . -1.7% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 2.7% 2.2%

B 8,182 7,602 7,562 7,790 7,514 7,361 7,424 7,590 7,767 7,914 8,081 8,249 -0.7% -7.1% -0.5% 3.0% -3.5% -2.0% 0.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.3%

Total: Internal

L . . . . . 7,332 7,274 7,318 7,400 7,456 7,525 7,595 . . . . . -2.4% -0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2%

H . . . . . 1,967 2,060 2,172 2,288 2,399 2,522 2,643 . . . . . 2.7% 4.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.9% 5.1% 4.8% 4.7%

B 1,807 1,711 1,815 1,883 1,916 1,960 2,018 2,095 2,178 2,253 2,336 2,421 5.0% -5.3% 6.1% 3.7% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.8% 4.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4%

Total: Arr/Dep

L . . . . . 1,951 1,975 2,012 2,062 2,103 2,148 2,192 . . . . . 1.9% 1.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9%

H . . . . . 142 152 160 168 176 185 194 . . . . . 19% 7.4% 4.9% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 7.2%

B 94 100 116 112 119 141 148 153 159 165 171 177 16% 7.1% 15% -3.4% 6.6% 18% 5.4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.7% 3.6% 5.8%

Total: Overflight

L . . . . . 139 144 148 153 156 161 165 . . . . . 17% 3.7% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 4.8%

H . . . . . 9,496 9,765 10,140 10,516 10,851 11,232 11,590 . . . . . -0.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,461 9,591 9,838 10,104 10,332 10,587 10,847 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.8%

Grand Total

L . . . . . 9,423 9,393 9,478 9,614 9,715 9,833 9,951 . . . . . -1.3% -0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

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Figure 43. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth ESRA08

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 3521.6 3595.0 3686.9 3798.2 3862.5 3929.4 . . . . . -1.7% 2.1% 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3%

B 3973.1 3665.3 3573.2 3679.4 3581.4 3479.9 3528.8 3593.4 3663.2 3706.0 3752.8 -0.6% -7.7% -2.5% 3.0% -2.7% -2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2%

ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

1

L . . . . . 3429.9 3440.1 3450.5 3479.9 3482.9 3491.3 . . . . . -4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%

H . . . . . 1664.6 1722.8 1786.6 1859.7 1917.7 1984.4 . . . . . 0.7% 3.5% 3.7% 4.1% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2%

B 1684.3 1548.8 1576.8 1674.8 1653.8 1639.5 1679.4 1718.6 1767.4 1808.8 1857.9 -1.5% -8.0% 1.8% 6.2% -1.3% -0.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6%

ESRA Mediter

ESRA North-W

2

L . . . . . 1611.6 1626.4 1633.7 1655.8 1671.0 1693.5 . . . . . -2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4%

H . . . . . 1300.0 1361.2 1436.6 1506.0 1572.2 1658.7 . . . . . -3.7% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.4% 5.5% 5.4%

B 1518.2 1445.0 1466.9 1480.4 1350.0 1282.1 1326.8 1372.5 1425.2 1481.8 1544.2 -3.5% -4.8% 1.5% 0.9% -8.8% -5.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%

ESRA Mediter

ESRA Mediter

3

L . . . . . 1262.9 1287.0 1303.3 1332.6 1365.8 1404.7 . . . . . -6.5% 1.9% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9%

H . . . . . 545.1 568.9 603.0 639.3 670.6 701.6 . . . . . 4.7% 4.4% 6.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.1%

B 560.0 513.5 510.6 520.3 520.4 535.4 551.0 571.6 594.3 614.1 635.6 5.9% -8.3% -0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2%

ESRA East

ESRA North-W

4

L . . . . . 525.7 532.9 541.5 553.2 561.8 571.4 . . . . . 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

H . . . . . 296.5 307.0 316.2 329.0 337.7 347.4 . . . . . 0.9% 3.6% 3.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4%

B 319.2 290.4 288.8 302.0 293.7 292.7 301.9 309.6 318.0 325.0 332.7 1.2% -9.0% -0.6% 4.6% -2.7% -0.3% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1%

ESRA North-W

North Atlant 5

L . . . . . 288.5 293.8 298.3 303.8 306.6 310.0 . . . . . -1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2%

H . . . . . 256.7 270.2 286.7 303.4 317.1 330.3 . . . . . 0.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7%

B 242.6 203.6 215.4 243.3 254.8 252.2 261.5 271.5 281.6 289.9 298.9 9.3% -16% 5.8% 13% 4.7% -1.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0%

ESRA North-W

Other Europe

6

L . . . . . 247.5 252.6 256.4 261.4 264.6 268.4 . . . . . -2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%

H . . . . . 200.4 207.1 222.5 238.5 254.3 271.4 . . . . . -6.3% 3.3% 7.4% 7.2% 6.6% 6.7% 6.4%

B 248.5 237.8 234.9 227.8 213.9 196.9 200.5 209.8 220.0 229.2 239.0 3.5% -4.3% -1.2% -3.0% -6.1% -7.9% 1.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2%

ESRA East

ESRA East 7

L . . . . . 193.7 194.6 199.6 205.7 210.8 216.2 . . . . . -9.4% 0.5% 2.5% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%

H . . . . . 217.6 229.5 242.6 259.3 272.5 287.0 . . . . . 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.2%

B 210.1 212.0 227.8 196.9 206.9 214.0 223.7 233.3 245.3 255.6 267.0 4.2% 0.9% 7.5% -14% 5.1% 3.4% 4.6% 4.3% 5.1% 4.2% 4.5% 4.1%

ESRA North-W

North-Africa 8

L . . . . . 210.2 216.4 221.9 228.9 234.8 241.4 . . . . . 1.6% 3.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8%

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ANNEX D. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH

Figure 44. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019

IFR Movements (thousands) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 206 215 224 234 242 252 261 4.2%

B 148 161 181 197 195 205 211 217 224 230 237 243 3.2%

Albania

L . . . . . 204 206 208 212 216 219 223 1.9%

H . . . . . 54 61 66 71 77 82 89 6.8%

B 52 48 53 57 56 53 59 63 67 71 75 79 5.1%

Armenia

L . . . . . 53 58 61 63 66 69 71 3.5%

H . . . . . 1,131 1,183 1,234 1,287 1,333 1,384 1,431 3.4%

B 1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,133 1,126 1,160 1,194 1,230 1,261 1,295 1,330 2.3%

Austria

L . . . . . 1,121 1,133 1,145 1,164 1,176 1,191 1,205 0.9%

H . . . . . 130 138 151 164 177 192 207 6.9%

B 108 108 120 124 130 129 135 145 155 165 175 187 5.3%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . 128 132 139 146 153 161 169 3.8%

H . . . . . 259 283 300 317 334 352 370 6.4%

B 199 182 196 225 240 258 276 287 299 310 322 334 4.8%

Belarus

L . . . . . 257 270 275 282 288 295 301 3.3%

H . . . . . 1,107 1,152 1,189 1,230 1,265 1,304 1,340 3.0%

B 1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,089 1,102 1,129 1,156 1,185 1,208 1,236 1,264 2.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 1,097 1,105 1,112 1,127 1,136 1,148 1,161 0.9%

H . . . . . 267 286 299 313 326 340 354 4.0%

B 218 224 250 276 268 266 280 289 298 307 316 326 2.8%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . 265 273 277 282 286 291 296 1.4%

H . . . . . 557 593 627 662 697 735 775 5.3%

B 478 477 504 539 540 555 580 603 628 651 678 705 3.9%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 553 567 578 593 605 619 633 2.3%

H . . . . . 264 277 284 293 300 309 318 2.1%

B 307 267 275 298 275 262 270 273 278 281 285 289 0.7%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . 261 264 262 262 263 263 264 -0.6%

H . . . . . 502 531 556 582 606 631 656 4.1%

B 422 422 459 497 495 500 519 537 555 571 588 606 2.9%

Croatia

L . . . . . 497 507 515 526 534 543 551 1.5%

H . . . . . 282 303 318 335 351 370 389 5.4%

B 272 268 285 281 270 280 295 304 316 326 338 351 3.8%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 278 287 291 297 303 310 316 2.3%

H . . . . . 691 731 770 808 843 881 917 4.4%

B 682 648 668 695 679 688 716 740 767 788 811 834 3.0%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 685 699 709 723 732 742 750 1.4%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 41

IFR Movements (thousands) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 622 646 667 685 701 720 737 2.9%

B 629 576 595 625 605 619 636 651 663 674 686 698 2.1%

Denmark

L . . . . . 617 624 630 635 639 644 648 1.0%

H . . . . . 187 198 211 223 235 246 258 4.5%

B 174 153 156 178 189 186 193 200 208 215 223 230 2.9%

Estonia

L . . . . . 185 188 191 195 198 202 205 1.2%

H . . . . . 114 123 128 134 139 145 150 4.2%

B 125 125 125 124 113 114 120 124 128 132 135 139 3.1%

FYROM

L . . . . . 113 117 119 121 123 125 127 1.8%

H . . . . . 246 254 265 275 284 295 305 2.8%

B 261 240 242 267 252 245 248 254 260 265 270 276 1.3%

Finland

L . . . . . 244 243 244 246 247 248 250 -0.1%

H . . . . . 2,906 3,006 3,096 3,192 3,273 3,361 3,433 2.3%

B 3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,923 2,894 2,953 3,011 3,082 3,135 3,196 3,259 1.6%

France

L . . . . . 2,882 2,890 2,900 2,933 2,952 2,976 3,004 0.4%

H . . . . . 110 123 134 145 155 168 181 7.6%

B 80 77 94 110 108 110 120 128 136 144 153 162 6.0%

Georgia

L . . . . . 109 118 123 129 134 140 147 4.5%

H . . . . . 3,014 3,109 3,222 3,334 3,435 3,546 3,646 2.7%

B 3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,018 3,001 3,053 3,128 3,207 3,272 3,345 3,418 1.8%

Germany

L . . . . . 2,987 2,984 3,005 3,038 3,060 3,085 3,109 0.4%

H . . . . . 632 657 683 711 736 764 793 3.3%

B 643 638 655 656 633 630 644 662 684 702 722 743 2.3%

Greece

L . . . . . 627 629 636 649 659 671 682 1.1%

H . . . . . 601 633 666 698 730 766 801 4.5%

B 622 608 622 617 589 598 619 641 663 684 707 731 3.1%

Hungary

L . . . . . 595 605 615 627 637 648 660 1.6%

H . . . . . 130 138 146 153 160 168 176 5.3%

B 110 101 102 111 123 129 136 141 146 151 156 161 3.9%

Iceland

L . . . . . 129 133 137 140 143 145 148 2.7%

H . . . . . 527 552 574 596 619 645 659 3.4%

B 601 530 513 523 521 525 541 557 573 587 604 621 2.5%

Ireland

L . . . . . 522 530 537 547 556 565 573 1.4%

H . . . . . 1,658 1,699 1,767 1,839 1,902 1,972 2,040 2.8%

B 1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,685 1,652 1,667 1,713 1,766 1,809 1,857 1,906 1.8%

Italy

L . . . . . 1,645 1,629 1,643 1,671 1,690 1,713 1,734 0.4%

H . . . . . 238 256 270 284 298 312 326 4.9%

B 225 206 214 235 233 237 248 255 262 269 276 284 2.9%

Latvia

L . . . . . 236 241 243 246 248 251 253 1.2%

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IFR Movements (thousands) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 449 467 483 499 513 530 546 3.2%

B 438 406 429 450 438 447 456 464 474 482 492 502 2.0%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 445 445 445 449 451 455 458 0.6%

H . . . . . 245 265 279 294 308 322 337 5.2%

B 219 192 206 233 236 244 258 267 275 283 292 301 3.5%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 242 252 255 259 263 266 270 2.0%

H . . . . . 107 115 120 125 130 135 141 5.6%

B 84 85 95 81 97 107 113 117 121 124 128 132 4.6%

Malta

L . . . . . 106 112 114 116 119 121 124 3.6%

H . . . . . 76 86 91 97 103 109 116 8.9%

B 41 44 54 60 64 76 84 88 92 96 100 104 7.3%

Moldova

L . . . . . 75 82 84 87 89 92 95 5.8%

H . . . . . 332 351 366 382 398 415 433 4.3%

B 331 312 339 352 324 331 344 352 363 372 382 393 2.8%

Morocco

L . . . . . 329 336 338 343 348 353 357 1.4%

H . . . . . 1,115 1,160 1,197 1,235 1,268 1,305 1,339 3.1%

B 1,090 996 1,013 1,085 1,083 1,110 1,139 1,164 1,189 1,209 1,235 1,261 2.2%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 1,105 1,115 1,121 1,133 1,140 1,151 1,161 1.0%

H . . . . . 610 629 651 662 671 681 691 2.4%

B 550 526 537 563 587 609 624 641 648 654 661 667 1.8%

Norway

L . . . . . 607 617 629 631 632 633 634 1.1%

H . . . . . 705 753 797 840 882 927 971 5.1%

B 612 566 599 655 684 702 735 763 789 815 844 872 3.5%

Poland

L . . . . . 699 718 729 742 753 767 780 1.9%

H . . . . . 511 541 573 606 638 675 713 5.6%

B 444 434 470 487 487 508 529 549 572 592 616 640 4.0%

Romania

L . . . . . 506 516 526 539 549 561 574 2.4%

H . . . . . 122 128 134 139 144 149 154 3.9%

B 116 113 118 123 118 122 126 129 133 137 140 144 2.9%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 121 123 125 127 129 131 133 1.7%

H . . . . . 530 549 574 600 625 652 679 3.5%

B 497 513 543 558 535 527 537 554 572 589 607 626 2.3%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . 525 524 531 541 550 559 568 0.9%

H . . . . . 401 423 445 466 487 510 533 4.9%

B 345 337 370 382 381 400 413 428 443 456 471 487 3.6%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 398 404 411 419 426 433 441 2.1%

H . . . . . 338 364 380 396 411 428 443 3.6%

B 327 313 328 353 346 337 356 366 378 388 399 410 2.5%

Slovenia

L . . . . . 335 347 351 357 362 367 372 1.1%

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IFR Movements (thousands) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 1,524 1,538 1,586 1,635 1,681 1,735 1,787 2.0%

B 1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,557 1,517 1,507 1,538 1,573 1,605 1,643 1,680 1.1%

Spain

L . . . . . 1,510 1,472 1,477 1,494 1,510 1,530 1,549 -0.1%

H . . . . . 736 770 802 827 849 873 896 3.1%

B 736 654 664 724 724 734 758 780 798 811 827 843 2.2%

Sweden

L . . . . . 731 744 755 763 767 773 778 1.0%

H . . . . . 1,032 1,076 1,110 1,149 1,178 1,207 1,228 2.3%

B 1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,045 1,028 1,056 1,080 1,107 1,130 1,155 1,178 1.7%

Switzerland

L . . . . . 1,023 1,032 1,038 1,050 1,059 1,069 1,080 0.5%

H . . . . . 1,152 1,241 1,328 1,414 1,498 1,599 1,703 6.9%

B 822 857 965 1,039 1,066 1,148 1,217 1,277 1,342 1,410 1,483 1,562 5.6%

Turkey

L . . . . . 1,143 1,191 1,226 1,268 1,312 1,358 1,406 4.0%

H . . . . . 503 545 579 614 649 687 726 6.5%

B 406 378 429 453 466 501 533 557 582 606 631 658 5.0%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 499 522 536 553 568 583 599 3.7%

H . . . . . 2,231 2,291 2,364 2,436 2,501 2,573 2,634 2.5%

B 2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,211 2,223 2,253 2,304 2,354 2,395 2,444 2,493 1.7%

UK

L . . . . . 2,215 2,212 2,233 2,265 2,289 2,315 2,339 0.8%

H . . . . . 9,346 9,601 9,962 10,324 10,646 11,012 11,354 2.8%

B 9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,388 9,311 9,431 9,671 9,928 10,146 10,393 10,643 1.8%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 9,274 9,237 9,317 9,448 9,544 9,657 9,770 0.6%

H . . . . . 8,670 8,887 9,204 9,531 9,819 10,140 10,434 2.5%

B 9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,766 8,636 8,723 8,929 9,156 9,340 9,550 9,761 1.5%

EU27

L . . . . . 8,600 8,539 8,596 8,706 8,779 8,867 8,955 0.3%

H . . . . . 9,496 9,765 10,140 10,516 10,851 11,232 11,590 2.8%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,461 9,591 9,838 10,104 10,332 10,587 10,847 1.8%

ESRA08

L . . . . . 9,423 9,393 9,478 9,614 9,715 9,833 9,951 0.6%

H . . . . . 9,069 9,297 9,630 9,968 10,266 10,597 10,903 2.5%

B 9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,162 9,034 9,129 9,346 9,581 9,770 9,987 10,204 1.6%

SES

L . . . . . 8,998 8,940 9,004 9,118 9,191 9,281 9,370 0.3%

H . . . . . 798 844 893 941 989 1,039 1,088 5.1%

B 704 644 679 741 768 794 823 854 884 912 944 975 3.5%

Baltic FAB

L . . . . . 791 804 817 831 844 859 873 1.8%

H . . . . . 2,247 2,296 2,391 2,492 2,582 2,682 2,782 3.2%

B 2,294 2,207 2,286 2,283 2,227 2,238 2,250 2,315 2,389 2,451 2,521 2,592 2.2%

BLUE MED FAB

L . . . . . 2,229 2,198 2,220 2,262 2,292 2,327 2,361 0.8%

H . . . . . 778 812 858 905 952 1,005 1,059 5.1%

B 690 687 734 758 746 774 794 825 857 888 922 958 3.6%

Danube FAB

L . . . . . 771 776 790 808 824 842 861 2.1%

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IFR Movements (thousands) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 1,889 1,946 2,039 2,133 2,218 2,312 2,401 3.7%

B 1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,865 1,881 1,906 1,966 2,031 2,086 2,147 2,208 2.4%

FAB CE

L . . . . . 1,872 1,861 1,885 1,919 1,944 1,971 1,996 1.0%

H . . . . . 5,545 5,679 5,862 6,054 6,217 6,395 6,552 2.4%

B 5,817 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,564 5,523 5,579 5,701 5,836 5,942 6,064 6,187 1.5%

FABEC

L . . . . . 5,499 5,459 5,487 5,547 5,582 5,627 5,673 0.3%

H . . . . . 1,017 1,054 1,098 1,132 1,162 1,194 1,225 2.9%

B 969 904 924 988 1,001 1,014 1,037 1,066 1,086 1,102 1,120 1,138 1.9%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 1,011 1,020 1,034 1,041 1,045 1,050 1,055 0.8%

H . . . . . 1,598 1,606 1,658 1,710 1,758 1,815 1,870 1.9%

B 1,912 1,733 1,765 1,823 1,644 1,591 1,574 1,607 1,644 1,677 1,716 1,755 0.9%

South West FAB

L . . . . . 1,583 1,538 1,543 1,560 1,576 1,597 1,617 -0.2%

H . . . . . 2,267 2,327 2,401 2,475 2,541 2,615 2,676 2.6%

B 2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,238 2,259 2,287 2,340 2,390 2,433 2,482 2,532 1.8%

UK-Ireland FAB

L . . . . . 2,251 2,246 2,267 2,300 2,325 2,351 2,375 0.9%

H . . . . . 1,012 1,048 1,087 1,118 1,145 1,175 1,203 3.0%

B 1,031 931 953 1,008 978 1,009 1,032 1,060 1,082 1,099 1,118 1,138 2.2%

DK-SE FAB

L . . . . . 1,005 1,014 1,027 1,036 1,041 1,048 1,054 1.1%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 45

Figure 45. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019

IFR Movements (Growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 5.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2%

B 4.5% 8.9% 12% 8.7% -1.1% 5.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2%

Albania

L . . . . . 4.7% 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9%

H . . . . . -4.3% 14% 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.6% 7.5% 6.8%

B 8.0% -6.7% 9.3% 8.1% -2.0% -5.0% 12% 6.2% 6.2% 5.5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.1%

Armenia

L . . . . . -5.6% 9.8% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.5%

H . . . . . -0.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4%

B 2.0% -7.6% 2.2% 1.5% -1.8% -0.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3%

Austria

L . . . . . -1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9%

H . . . . . -0.6% 6.8% 9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.4% 8.2% 6.9%

B 13% 0.5% 11% 2.8% 5.4% -1.0% 4.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 5.3%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . -1.5% 3.1% 4.9% 5.4% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 3.8%

H . . . . . 8.1% 9.0% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.2% 6.4%

B 16% -8.6% 7.7% 15% 6.7% 7.6% 7.0% 3.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 4.8%

Belarus

L . . . . . 7.2% 5.0% 1.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 3.3%

H . . . . . 1.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0%

B 0.7% -7.9% 1.5% 5.4% -0.2% 1.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

H . . . . . -0.5% 7.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0%

B 8.5% 3.1% 11% 10% -2.6% -1.0% 5.3% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . -1.4% 3.2% 1.3% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4%

H . . . . . 3.2% 6.4% 5.8% 5.6% 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%

B 7.7% -0.2% 5.6% 7.1% 0.2% 2.8% 4.6% 4.0% 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

H . . . . . -4.0% 4.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1%

B -0.2% -13% 3.2% 8.2% -7.7% -4.4% 3.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . -4.9% 1.0% -0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% -0.6%

H . . . . . 1.3% 5.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1%

B 6.0% 0.1% 8.7% 8.4% -0.4% 0.8% 4.0% 3.3% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

Croatia

L . . . . . 0.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

H . . . . . 4.6% 7.5% 4.9% 5.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.2% 5.4%

B 12% -1.7% 6.4% -1.2% -4.1% 3.9% 5.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 3.2% 3.2% 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%

H . . . . . 1.7% 5.8% 5.2% 5.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.1% 4.4%

B 5.6% -5.0% 3.2% 4.0% -2.3% 1.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 3.0%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 0.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4%

H . . . . . 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.9%

B -0.3% -8.5% 3.3% 5.1% -3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1%

Denmark

L . . . . . 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0%

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IFR Movements (Growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . -1.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.7% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5%

B 13% -12% 2.1% 14% 6.1% -1.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%

Estonia

L . . . . . -2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2%

H . . . . . 1.7% 7.7% 4.1% 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2%

B 2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -9.6% 1.2% 5.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%

FYROM

L . . . . . 0.7% 3.6% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8%

H . . . . . -2.3% 3.2% 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 2.8%

B 6.3% -7.7% 0.6% 11% -5.8% -2.7% 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 1.3%

Finland

L . . . . . -3.2% -0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%

H . . . . . -0.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3%

B -0.2% -7.3% -0.2% 6.2% -1.5% -1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6%

France

L . . . . . -1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%

H . . . . . 2.4% 12% 8.5% 8.1% 7.6% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6%

B 0.0% -3.6% 22% 16% -1.7% 1.8% 9.6% 6.3% 6.4% 5.8% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%

Georgia

L . . . . . 1.3% 7.7% 4.4% 4.9% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%

H . . . . . -0.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7%

B 1.4% -7.0% 1.7% 3.2% -1.9% -0.5% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8%

Germany

L . . . . . -1.0% -0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4%

H . . . . . -0.2% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3%

B 3.4% -0.8% 2.6% 0.2% -3.5% -0.5% 2.2% 2.9% 3.3% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3%

Greece

L . . . . . -0.9% 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1%

H . . . . . 1.9% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%

B 1.1% -2.3% 2.4% -0.8% -4.4% 1.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1%

Hungary

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6%

H . . . . . 5.9% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 5.3%

B 4.8% -7.8% 0.6% 9.0% 11% 5.6% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.9%

Iceland

L . . . . . 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.7%

H . . . . . 1.1% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 4.1% 2.2% 3.4%

B 0.6% -12% -3.1% 1.9% -0.4% 0.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5%

Ireland

L . . . . . 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%

H . . . . . -1.6% 2.5% 4.0% 4.1% 3.4% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8%

B -2.4% -5.1% 3.9% 0.8% -2.3% -2.0% 0.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 1.8%

Italy

L . . . . . -2.4% -1.0% 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4%

H . . . . . 2.4% 7.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9%

B 11% -8.4% 4.0% 9.8% -1.0% 1.7% 4.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9%

Latvia

L . . . . . 1.2% 2.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

H . . . . . 2.6% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2%

B 2.7% -7.2% 5.6% 4.8% -2.7% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 47

IFR Movements (Growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 3.9% 8.1% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 5.2%

B 12% -12% 7.3% 13% 1.0% 3.3% 5.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.5%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 2.8% 3.8% 1.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 2.0%

H . . . . . 11% 7.4% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 4.2% 5.6%

B 3.5% 0.7% 12% -15% 20% 11% 6.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 4.6%

Malta

L . . . . . 10% 4.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6%

H . . . . . 19% 13% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 6.2% 6.0% 8.9%

B 18% 6.7% 24% 11% 5.7% 18% 11% 4.5% 4.7% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 7.3%

Moldova

L . . . . . 18% 8.9% 2.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 5.8%

H . . . . . 2.7% 5.8% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%

B 2.5% -5.8% 8.6% 3.9% -8.1% 2.2% 4.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

Morocco

L . . . . . 1.7% 2.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%

H . . . . . 2.9% 4.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1%

B -1.6% -8.6% 1.7% 7.2% -0.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%

H . . . . . 3.9% 3.2% 3.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 2.4%

B 2.6% -4.4% 2.2% 4.9% 4.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.8%

Norway

L . . . . . 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1%

H . . . . . 3.0% 6.7% 5.9% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7% 5.1%

B 10% -7.6% 5.8% 9.4% 4.6% 2.6% 4.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%

Poland

L . . . . . 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9%

H . . . . . 4.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6%

B 2.8% -2.3% 8.2% 3.8% -0.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0%

Romania

L . . . . . 3.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4%

H . . . . . 3.4% 5.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5% 3.9%

B 6.5% -2.6% 4.5% 4.3% -3.9% 2.9% 3.6% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7%

H . . . . . -0.9% 3.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.1% 3.5%

B 8.6% 3.3% 5.9% 2.7% -4.1% -1.4% 1.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 2.3%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . -1.8% -0.2% 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9%

H . . . . . 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.5% 4.7% 4.4% 4.9%

B 6.4% -2.4% 9.9% 3.1% -0.3% 5.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 4.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1%

H . . . . . -2.1% 7.5% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6%

B 6.8% -4.2% 4.8% 7.5% -2.0% -2.6% 5.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.5%

Slovenia

L . . . . . -3.1% 3.6% 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1%

H . . . . . -2.1% 0.9% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0%

B -1.8% -9.5% 1.8% 3.6% -6.5% -2.6% -0.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.1%

Spain

L . . . . . -3.0% -2.5% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% -0.1%

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IFR Movements (Growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 1.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1%

B 3.9% -11% 1.5% 9.1% -0.1% 1.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2%

Sweden

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0%

H . . . . . -1.2% 4.2% 3.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.7% 2.3%

B 0.3% -7.1% 0.7% 3.6% -1.7% -1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7%

Switzerland

L . . . . . -2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%

H . . . . . 8.1% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 5.9% 6.7% 6.5% 6.9%

B 8.6% 4.2% 13% 7.6% 2.6% 7.7% 6.1% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6%

Turkey

L . . . . . 7.3% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 4.0%

H . . . . . 8.0% 8.3% 6.2% 6.1% 5.6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.5%

B 8.7% -6.9% 14% 5.5% 2.9% 7.6% 6.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 5.0%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 7.1% 4.6% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 3.7%

H . . . . . 0.9% 2.7% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5%

B -1.4% -9.4% -4.3% 2.8% -1.4% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7%

UK

L . . . . . 0.2% -0.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8%

H . . . . . -0.4% 2.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.7% 2.9% -2.6% -0.8% 1.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8%

ESRA02

L . . . . . -1.2% -0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

H . . . . . -1.1% 2.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5%

B 0.3% -7.2% 0.2% 2.6% -3.0% -1.5% 1.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5%

EU27

L . . . . . -1.9% -0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3%

H . . . . . -0.5% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.8%

ESRA08

L . . . . . -1.3% -0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

H . . . . . -1.0% 2.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5%

B 0.4% -6.9% 0.2% 2.6% -2.6% -1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.6%

SES

L . . . . . -1.8% -0.6% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3%

H . . . . . 3.8% 5.7% 5.9% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7% 5.1%

B 11% -8.6% 5.5% 9.2% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%

Baltic FAB

L . . . . . 2.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8%

H . . . . . 0.9% 2.2% 4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 3.7% 3.2%

B -0.8% -3.8% 3.6% -0.1% -2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 2.9% 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2%

BLUE MED FAB

L . . . . . 0.1% -1.4% 1.0% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.8%

H . . . . . 4.2% 4.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.2% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1%

B 6.9% -0.4% 6.7% 3.3% -1.5% 3.7% 2.6% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6%

Danube FAB

L . . . . . 3.3% 0.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

H . . . . . 1.3% 3.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.7%

B 3.1% -5.2% 3.2% 2.7% -2.6% 0.9% 1.3% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.4%

FAB CE

L . . . . . 0.4% -0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 49

IFR Movements (Growth) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . -0.3% 2.4% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4%

B 0.5% -7.1% 0.5% 4.4% -1.9% -0.7% 1.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5%

FABEC

L . . . . . -1.2% -0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%

H . . . . . 1.7% 3.6% 4.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9%

B 4.5% -6.6% 2.1% 7.0% 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%

H . . . . . -2.8% 0.5% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9%

B -1.8% -9.4% 1.8% 3.3% -9.8% -3.3% -1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 0.9%

South West FAB

L . . . . . -3.7% -2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% -0.2%

H . . . . . 1.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 2.6%

B -1.5% -9.5% -4.3% 2.5% -1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

UK-Ireland FAB

L . . . . . 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

H . . . . . 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 3.0%

B 2.2% -9.7% 2.4% 5.7% -3.0% 3.2% 2.3% 2.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2%

DK-SE FAB

L . . . . . 2.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1%

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Page 50 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

ANNEX E. STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST

Figure 46. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014.

Charging Area 2012 Actual

TSU

2013 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2013/2012 Forecast Growth

2014 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2014/2013 Forecast Growth

2013 States Forecast

TSU

2013 STATFOR

/ States EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,231,537 2,272,782 1.8% 2,325,744 2.3% 2,349,875 -3.3%

ED GermanyA 12,513,068 12,593,836 0.6% 12,816,707 1.8% 13,708,080 -8.1%

LF France 17,515,047 17,745,005 1.3% 18,294,326 3.1% 18,436,674 -3.8%

EG UK 9,607,736 9,679,773 0.7% 9,816,550 1.4% 10,667,227 -9.3%

EH Netherlands 2,587,398 2,706,447 4.6% 2,794,863 3.3% 2,733,000 -1.0%

EI Ireland 3,805,985 3,836,410 0.8% 3,963,309 3.3% 3,906,000 -1.8%

LS Switzerland 1,398,574 1,386,904 -0.8% 1,434,756 3.5% 1,527,979 -9.2%

LP Lisbon FIR 2,782,280 2,847,496 2.3% 2,936,474 3.1% 2,984,808 -4.6%

LO Austria 2,469,156 2,468,089 0.0% 2,544,808 3.1% 2,814,000 -12.3%

LE Spain 8,443,969 8,339,418 -1.2% 8,408,016 0.8% 9,626,232 -13.4%

GC Canary Islands 1,599,207 1,519,699 -5.0% 1,559,254 2.6% 1,746,350 -13.0%

AZ Santa Maria FIR 3,874,372 4,016,540 3.7% 4,177,068 4.0% 4,214,008 -4.7%

LG Greece 4,357,569 4,279,051 -1.8% 4,359,189 1.9% 4,860,000 -12.0%

LT Turkey 9,812,755 10,685,896 8.9% 11,326,040 6.0% 10,767,830 -0.8%

LM Malta 641,289 723,250 12.8% 749,753 3.7% 588,338 22.9%

LI Italy 8,139,130 8,056,187 -1.0% 8,165,635 1.4% 8,780,867 -8.3%

LC Cyprus 1,303,262 1,346,048 3.3% 1,411,261 4.8% 1,320,000 2.0%

LH Hungary 2,023,434 2,087,432 3.2% 2,177,178 4.3% 2,154,532 -3.1%

EN Norway 1,845,568 2,034,594 10.2% 2,127,542 4.6% 1,797,642 13.2%

EK Denmark 1,428,735 1,527,150 6.9% 1,592,834 4.3% 1,572,317 -2.9%

LJ Slovenia 425,205 417,889 -1.7% 443,500 6.1% 441,730 -5.4%

LR Romania 3,575,195 3,721,702 4.1% 3,884,482 4.4% 3,802,000 -2.1%

LK Czech Republic 2,304,641 2,387,919 3.6% 2,477,705 3.8% 2,419,960 -1.3%

ES Sweden 3,126,197 3,209,605 2.7% 3,302,313 2.9% 3,302,000 -2.8%

LZ Slovakia 921,643 984,752 6.8% 1,024,887 4.1% 977,545 0.7%

LD Croatia 1,678,634 1,728,637 3.0% 1,811,316 4.8% 1,762,027 -1.9%

LB Bulgaria 2,020,149 2,054,030 1.7% 2,120,895 3.3% 2,043,942 0.5%

LW FYROM 174,312 177,588 1.9% 188,047 5.9% 190,400 -6.7%

LU Moldova 205,863 243,675 18.4% 272,899 12.0% 218,000 11.8%

EF Finland 790,296 772,921 -2.2% 785,258 1.6% 908,000 -14.9%

LA Albania 442,921 463,217 4.6% 475,118 2.6% 469,400 -1.3%

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 680,299 657,880 -3.3% 692,530 5.3% 716,646 -8.2%

UD Armenia 153,559 153,171 -0.3% 172,558 12.7% 159,993 -4.3%

LY BelgradeB 1,718,633 1,655,077 -3.7% 1,667,165 0.7% 1,799,947 -8.0%

EP Poland 3,854,458 4,036,839 4.7% 4,230,434 4.8% 4,021,000 0.4%

EY Lithuania 429,631 451,221 5.0% 478,924 6.1% 448,700 0.6%

EE Estonia 724,607 757,477 4.5% 788,893 4.1% 791,200 -4.3%

EV LatviaC 707,109 733,761 3.8% 779,915 6.3% 731,000 0.4%

UK UkraineD 4,587,862 5,024,736 9.5% 5,323,430 5.9% . .

Charging Area

2012 Actual TSU

2013 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2013/2012 Forecast Growth

2014 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2014/2013 Forecast Growth

2013 States Forecast

TSU

2013 STATFOR

/ States CRCO88 CRCO88 68,828,330 69,412,400 0.8% 71,071,875 2.4% 74,714,232 -7.1% ESRA02 ESRA02 113,602,206 115,850,725 2.0% 119,292,606 3.0% 122,621,363 -5.5% CRCO11 CRCO11 121,588,815 124,001,890 2.0% 127,789,250 3.1% 130,968,049 -5.3% PScheme PScheme 103,572,074 104,977,688 1.4% 107,795,403 2.7% 111,460,998 -5.8% TOTAL Total 126,901,283 129,784,104 2.3% 133,901,573 3.2% 131,759,249 -5.3%(E)

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 51

(A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 72.800 service units concerned for 2012. Estimated

number for the coming years is 75.000 per year. (B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Belgrade (Annex 1 of the Conditions of Application of the Route

Charges System, Text approved by the enlarged Commission and entered into force on 20.5.2011). (C) Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU (D) Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they will not have this capacity in 2012. In the TOTAL column the 2012 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2012 States and STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine (E) Percentage corrected for missing State Forecasts for Ukraine (only Total): it represents the difference between the total state forecast and total STATFOR forecast for all countries but Ukraine.

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Page 52 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

Figure 47. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2013-2014.

Charging Area 2012 Actual TSU

2013 STATFOR Forecast TSU

2014 STATFOR Forecast TSU

2012 Actual Exempted SU in %

2012 Actual Chargeable SU in %

2013 Chargeable SU Estimate

2014 Chargeable SU Estimate

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,231,537 2,272,782 2,325,744 1.1% 98.9% 2,248,400 2,300,800

ED Germany 12,513,068 12,593,836 12,816,707 1.0% 99.0% 12,470,700 12,691,400

LF France 17,515,047 17,745,005 18,294,326 1.0% 99.0% 17,574,300 18,118,300

EG UK 9,607,736 9,679,773 9,816,550 1.4% 98.6% 9,540,200 9,675,000

EH Netherlands 2,587,398 2,706,447 2,794,863 1.1% 98.9% 2,675,900 2,763,400

EI Ireland 3,805,985 3,836,410 3,963,309 1.4% 98.6% 3,783,300 3,908,400

LS Switzerland 1,398,574 1,386,904 1,434,756 0.3% 99.7% 1,383,200 1,430,900

LP Lisbon FIR 2,782,280 2,847,496 2,936,474 1.3% 98.7% 2,810,100 2,897,900

LO Austria 2,469,156 2,468,089 2,544,808 0.2% 99.8% 2,463,000 2,539,500

LE Spain 8,443,969 8,339,418 8,408,016 1.1% 98.9% 8,249,900 8,317,700

GC Canary Islands 1,599,207 1,519,699 1,559,254 0.7% 99.3% 1,509,700 1,549,000

AZ Santa Maria FIR 3,874,372 4,016,540 4,177,068 2.7% 97.3% 3,909,000 4,065,300

LG Greece 4,357,569 4,279,051 4,359,189 2.1% 97.9% 4,187,200 4,265,600

LT Turkey 9,812,755 10,685,896 11,326,040 1.6% 98.4% 10,517,100 11,147,200

LM Malta 641,289 723,250 749,753 4.0% 96.0% 694,500 720,000

LI Italy 8,139,130 8,056,187 8,165,635 2.0% 98.0% 7,892,100 7,999,300

LC Cyprus 1,303,262 1,346,048 1,411,261 1.1% 98.9% 1,331,400 1,395,900

LH Hungary 2,023,434 2,087,432 2,177,178 1.9% 98.1% 2,048,300 2,136,300

EN Norway 1,845,568 2,034,594 2,127,542 1.1% 98.9% 2,012,000 2,103,900

EK Denmark 1,428,735 1,527,150 1,592,834 0.7% 99.3% 1,516,700 1,581,900

LJ Slovenia 425,205 417,889 443,500 0.3% 99.7% 416,400 442,000

LR Romania 3,575,195 3,721,702 3,884,482 2.3% 97.7% 3,637,100 3,796,200

LK Czech Republic 2,304,641 2,387,919 2,477,705 2.5% 97.5% 2,327,800 2,415,300

ES Sweden 3,126,197 3,209,605 3,302,313 0.4% 99.6% 3,195,800 3,288,100

LZ Slovakia 921,643 984,752 1,024,887 2.0% 98.0% 965,000 1,004,400

LD Croatia 1,678,634 1,728,637 1,811,316 0.2% 99.8% 1,724,400 1,806,900

LB Bulgaria 2,020,149 2,054,030 2,120,895 0.9% 99.1% 2,035,000 2,101,300

LW FYROM 174,312 177,588 188,047 0.1% 99.9% 177,400 187,900

LU Moldova 205,863 243,675 272,899 0.1% 99.9% 243,500 272,700

EF Finland 790,296 772,921 785,258 0.9% 99.1% 766,200 778,500

LA Albania 442,921 463,217 475,118 0.4% 99.6% 461,100 473,000

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 680,299 657,880 692,530 0.1% 99.9% 657,400 692,000

UD Armenia 153,559 153,171 172,558 0.1% 99.9% 153,000 172,400

LY Belgrade 1,718,633 1,655,077 1,667,165 0.1% 99.9% 1,653,800 1,665,900

EP Poland 3,854,458 4,036,839 4,230,434 0.4% 99.6% 4,020,100 4,212,900

EY Lithuania 429,631 451,221 478,924 0.3% 99.7% 449,700 477,300

EE Estonia 724,607 757,477 788,893 0.0% 100.0% 757,300 788,700

EV Latvia 707,109 733,761 779,915 0.3% 99.7% 731,500 777,500

UK Ukraine 4,587,862 5,024,736 5,323,430 0.2% 99.8% 5,015,500 5,313,700

CRCO88 CRCO88 68,828,330 69,412,400 71,071,875 1.1% 98.9% 68,620,200 70,260,700

ESRA02 ESRA02 113,602,206 115,850,725 119,292,606 1.3% 98.7% 114,310,600 117,706,700

CRCO11 CRCO11 121,588,815 124,001,890 127,789,250 1.3% 98.7% 122,437,500 126,177,100

PScheme PScheme 103,572,074 104,977,688 107,795,403 1.2% 98.8% 103,693,400 106,476,700

TOTAL Total 126,901,283 129,784,104 133,901,573 1.2% 98.8% 128,206,500 132,273,900

(A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic.72.800 service units concerned for 2012. Estimated

number for the coming years is 75.000 per year. (B) Note that the Chargeable SU in % have been returned to levels before2011. In 2011 it was for Malta equal to 88% and for Italy equal to 96% because of increased military traffic.

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 53

ANNEX F. SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

This annex shows the EUROCONTROL seven-year forecast of service units per individual charging area. Forecasts for Armenia, Lithuania, Poland and Belgrade and Ukraine must be treated with extra care as they are based on a limited set of historical data.

Figure 48. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019.

Total service units (thousands)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2019/ 2012 Total

Growth

H . . . . . 465 486 506 528 547 568 589 33%

B 325 355 404 448 443 463 475 490 506 520 535 550 24%

Albania

L . . . . . 461 464 470 481 488 497 505 14%

H . . . . . 155 180 195 210 225 242 259 69%

B . 111 146 170 154 153 173 183 194 205 216 229 49%

Armenia

L . . . . . 152 166 172 179 186 194 202 32%

H . . . . . 2,480 2,611 2,728 2,844 2,950 3,065 3,172 28%

B 2,566 2,424 2,449 2,519 2,469 2,468 2,545 2,623 2,705 2,773 2,851 2,929 19%

Austria

L . . . . . 2,457 2,476 2,506 2,549 2,578 2,612 2,646 7%

H . . . . . 2,280 2,364 2,436 2,517 2,588 2,669 2,742 23%

B 2,220 2,079 2,115 2,212 2,232 2,273 2,326 2,377 2,435 2,482 2,539 2,597 16%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 2,266 2,286 2,297 2,327 2,347 2,372 2,400 8%

H . . . . . 1,667 1,722 1,797 1,876 1,951 2,034 2,116 23%

B 1,748 1,783 1,819 1,831 1,719 1,655 1,667 1,716 1,772 1,821 1,878 1,936 13%

Belgrade

L . . . . . 1,644 1,611 1,629 1,660 1,685 1,714 1,742 1%

H . . . . . 663 717 752 787 820 856 892 31%

B 525 579 637 717 680 658 693 714 738 759 782 806 18%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . 653 668 675 688 697 708 719 6%

H . . . . . 2,064 2,168 2,292 2,420 2,541 2,676 2,815 39%

B 1,747 1,798 1,840 2,019 2,020 2,054 2,121 2,208 2,301 2,385 2,479 2,576 28%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 2,044 2,072 2,118 2,175 2,221 2,273 2,326 15%

H . . . . . 1,527 1,600 1,644 1,691 1,734 1,787 1,838 15%

B 1,713 1,492 1,540 1,666 1,599 1,520 1,559 1,578 1,602 1,620 1,645 1,670 4%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . 1,513 1,519 1,509 1,512 1,513 1,519 1,522 -5%

H . . . . . 1,736 1,849 1,942 2,035 2,118 2,209 2,297 37%

B 1,271 1,298 1,451 1,634 1,679 1,729 1,811 1,873 1,937 1,992 2,053 2,115 26%

Croatia

L . . . . . 1,722 1,772 1,799 1,836 1,862 1,893 1,923 15%

H . . . . . 1,351 1,438 1,512 1,587 1,665 1,750 1,840 41%

B 1,311 1,273 1,352 1,347 1,303 1,346 1,411 1,460 1,512 1,564 1,620 1,681 29%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 1,341 1,384 1,409 1,439 1,469 1,500 1,535 18%

H . . . . . 2,398 2,535 2,658 2,788 2,903 3,028 3,147 37%

B 2,019 2,023 2,190 2,305 2,305 2,388 2,478 2,558 2,647 2,720 2,799 2,874 25%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 2,378 2,419 2,451 2,498 2,530 2,562 2,590 12%

H . . . . . 1,532 1,622 1,679 1,726 1,770 1,818 1,862 30%

B 1,474 1,359 1,411 1,470 1,429 1,527 1,593 1,634 1,667 1,695 1,727 1,760 23%

Denmark

L . . . . . 1,522 1,562 1,581 1,598 1,610 1,623 1,636 15%

H . . . . . 762 812 859 906 955 1,003 1,049 45%

B 697 632 627 704 725 757 789 816 845 874 906 938 29%

Estonia

L . . . . . 753 767 777 792 806 821 836 15%

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Total service units (thousands)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2019/ 2012 Total

Growth

H . . . . . 178 193 200 209 217 226 234 35%

B 182 180 183 194 174 178 188 194 200 205 212 218 25%

FYROM

L . . . . . 177 183 186 189 192 196 199 14%

H . . . . . 777 803 838 870 902 934 967 22%

B 791 727 740 832 790 773 785 807 825 843 862 881 11%

Finland

L . . . . . 769 767 775 782 788 794 801 1%

H . . . . . 17,793 18,589 19,172 19,795 20,317 20,893 21,385 22%

B 18,034 16,780 16,637 17,691 17,515 17,745 18,294 18,687 19,140 19,494 19,907 20,319 16%

France

L . . . . . 17,697 17,979 18,080 18,309 18,457 18,640 18,833 8%

H . . . . . 12,622 12,996 13,483 13,962 14,394 14,867 15,291 22%

B 12,749 11,913 12,294 12,740 12,513 12,594 12,817 13,149 13,487 13,770 14,088 14,405 15%

Germany

L . . . . . 12,565 12,620 12,729 12,886 12,994 13,117 13,236 6%

H . . . . . 4,300 4,478 4,672 4,886 5,083 5,304 5,526 27%

B 4,258 4,139 4,454 4,546 4,358 4,279 4,359 4,489 4,644 4,779 4,933 5,091 17%

Greece

L . . . . . 4,258 4,238 4,289 4,383 4,454 4,540 4,625 6%

H . . . . . 2,101 2,252 2,372 2,491 2,607 2,735 2,861 41%

B 2,092 2,038 2,091 2,067 2,023 2,087 2,177 2,257 2,339 2,414 2,497 2,583 28%

Hungary

L . . . . . 2,074 2,101 2,139 2,186 2,224 2,266 2,308 14%

H . . . . . 3,857 4,064 4,236 4,409 4,581 4,772 4,882 28%

B 3,823 3,561 3,615 3,771 3,806 3,836 3,963 4,085 4,208 4,322 4,448 4,575 20%

Ireland

L . . . . . 3,816 3,861 3,921 3,999 4,066 4,136 4,203 10%

H . . . . . 8,093 8,357 8,708 9,074 9,395 9,746 10,089 24%

B 8,660 8,145 8,621 8,370 8,139 8,056 8,166 8,393 8,651 8,865 9,105 9,345 15%

Italy

L . . . . . 8,020 7,967 8,029 8,162 8,255 8,366 8,476 4%

H . . . . . 737 800 844 886 927 970 1,013 43%

B 656 596 634 702 707 734 780 802 824 844 867 890 26%

Latvia

L . . . . . 731 761 767 775 782 791 799 13%

H . . . . . 2,856 2,978 3,081 3,188 3,285 3,396 3,504 26%

B 2,677 2,501 2,624 2,821 2,782 2,847 2,936 2,998 3,068 3,126 3,195 3,265 17%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 2,839 2,895 2,905 2,937 2,962 2,994 3,023 9%

H . . . . . 454 494 521 548 574 602 629 46%

B 384 341 371 420 430 451 479 495 512 527 543 559 30%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 449 464 470 479 485 493 500 16%

H . . . . . 728 773 808 851 894 942 992 55%

B 422 416 487 506 641 723 750 769 798 826 859 894 39%

Malta

L . . . . . 718 728 733 749 765 784 804 25%

H . . . . . 247 289 307 325 342 362 382 86%

B 115 139 181 195 206 244 273 285 298 309 322 336 63%

Moldova

L . . . . . 241 257 264 272 279 287 295 43%

H . . . . . 2,714 2,843 2,939 3,031 3,115 3,208 3,294 27%

B 2,621 2,426 2,476 2,595 2,587 2,706 2,795 2,864 2,926 2,979 3,042 3,107 20%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 2,698 2,745 2,769 2,802 2,825 2,854 2,882 11%

H . . . . . 2,043 2,170 2,248 2,303 2,351 2,408 2,462 33%

B 1,537 1,495 1,583 1,713 1,846 2,035 2,128 2,188 2,225 2,254 2,289 2,322 26%

Norway

L . . . . . 2,026 2,084 2,124 2,141 2,150 2,163 2,173 18%

H . . . . . 4,048 4,295 4,540 4,768 4,991 5,230 5,464 42%

B 3,230 3,092 3,313 3,676 3,854 4,037 4,230 4,394 4,546 4,688 4,847 5,005 30%

Poland

L . . . . . 4,026 4,165 4,245 4,324 4,394 4,473 4,548 18%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 55

Total service units (thousands)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2019/ 2012 Total

Growth

H . . . . . 3,740 3,989 4,238 4,483 4,719 4,980 5,247 47%

B 3,240 3,133 3,414 3,533 3,575 3,722 3,884 4,060 4,235 4,392 4,566 4,745 33%

Romania

L . . . . . 3,704 3,779 3,879 3,987 4,076 4,171 4,266 19%

H . . . . . 4,041 4,269 4,439 4,626 4,798 4,991 5,175 34%

B 3,484 3,479 3,696 3,983 3,874 4,017 4,177 4,295 4,436 4,554 4,691 4,829 25%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 3,992 4,083 4,143 4,227 4,291 4,366 4,441 15%

H . . . . . 989 1,047 1,099 1,151 1,202 1,259 1,314 43%

B 762 768 856 900 922 985 1,025 1,060 1,096 1,129 1,166 1,204 31%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 981 1,003 1,019 1,039 1,056 1,075 1,094 19%

H . . . . . 420 453 473 493 512 532 551 30%

B 342 331 365 425 425 418 443 457 472 484 498 513 21%

Slovenia

L . . . . . 416 434 440 448 454 461 467 10%

H . . . . . 8,363 8,520 8,812 9,100 9,364 9,672 9,967 18%

B 9,129 8,358 8,642 9,099 8,444 8,339 8,408 8,597 8,806 8,987 9,201 9,415 12%

Spain

L . . . . . 8,316 8,288 8,334 8,438 8,528 8,643 8,751 4%

H . . . . . 3,221 3,369 3,510 3,626 3,729 3,842 3,950 26%

B 3,271 2,906 2,950 3,185 3,126 3,210 3,302 3,402 3,481 3,546 3,620 3,694 18%

Sweden

L . . . . . 3,198 3,234 3,284 3,323 3,347 3,377 3,406 9%

H . . . . . 1,391 1,458 1,507 1,559 1,603 1,649 1,689 21%

B 1,472 1,396 1,409 1,431 1,399 1,387 1,435 1,469 1,506 1,538 1,574 1,608 15%

Switzerland

L . . . . . 1,383 1,409 1,418 1,437 1,449 1,465 1,481 6%

H . . . . . 10,722 11,534 12,309 13,056 13,808 14,684 15,592 59%

B 7,629 8,086 8,923 9,618 9,813 10,686 11,326 11,869 12,430 13,023 13,655 14,330 46%

Turkey

L . . . . . 10,650 11,112 11,438 11,804 12,187 12,583 12,998 32%

H . . . . . 9,709 9,968 10,286 10,612 10,911 11,246 11,513 20%

B 11,044 9,914 9,480 9,860 9,608 9,680 9,817 10,036 10,262 10,455 10,682 10,912 14%

UK

L . . . . . 9,651 9,661 9,744 9,884 9,988 10,104 10,217 6%

H . . . . . 5,049 5,446 5,757 6,083 6,405 6,766 7,138 56%

B 3,903 3,727 4,188 4,465 4,588 5,025 5,323 5,538 5,771 5,988 6,231 6,483 41%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 5,000 5,202 5,321 5,473 5,605 5,750 5,897 29%

H . . . . . 116,270 121,581 126,628 131,710 136,398 141,649 146,579 29%

B 112,655 106,577 110,070 115,248 113,602 115,851 119,293 122,717 126,338 129,527 133,123 136,792 20%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 115,428 116,917 118,313 120,320 121,918 123,739 125,556 11%

H . . . . . 69,632 72,261 74,762 77,336 79,639 82,216 84,450 23%

B 71,532 66,323 66,977 70,390 68,828 69,412 71,072 72,757 74,580 76,101 77,862 79,631 16%

CRCO88

L . . . . . 69,191 69,821 70,356 71,308 71,998 72,824 73,633 7%

H . . . . . 124,458 130,275 135,782 141,314 146,433 152,151 157,541 30%

B 119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 124,002 127,789 131,511 135,429 138,891 142,790 146,766 21%

CRCO11

L . . . . . 123,542 125,216 126,741 128,905 130,636 132,608 134,571 11%

H . . . . . 105,348 109,848 114,194 118,568 122,562 126,982 131,054 27%

B 104,941 98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 104,978 107,795 110,709 113,764 116,376 119,352 122,356 18%

PScheme

L . . . . . 104,605 105,667 106,742 108,360 109,574 110,991 112,382 9%

H . . . . . 130,270 136,533 142,397 148,304 153,794 159,920 165,728 31%

B 124,122 117,793 122,208 128,380 126,901 129,784 133,902 137,865 142,046 145,753 149,926 154,187 22%

Total

L . . . . . 129,295 131,185 132,840 135,170 137,046 139,179 141,304 11%

(a) Total in 2008 does not include Armenia for which data for this year are not available. (b)Total from 2009 includes TSU of all countries (c) CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. (d) PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland).

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Page 56 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

Figure 49. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service unit growth 2008-2019.

TSU Annual growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 5.0% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2%

B 3.8% 9.1% 13.9% 10.8% -1.0% 4.6% 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1%

Albania

L . . . . . 4.1% 0.6% 1.3% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9%

H . . . . . 0.8% 16.2% 8.5% 7.7% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.8%

B . . 31.5% 16.1% -9.5% -0.3% 12.7% 6.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8%

Armenia

L . . . . . -1.3% 9.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0%

H . . . . . 0.4% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6%

B 2.3% -5.5% 1.0% 2.9% -2.0% -0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5%

Austria

L . . . . . -0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0%

H . . . . . -3.0% 3.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3% 4.0% 3.0%

B 90.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% -6.1% -3.7% 0.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.1% 1.7%

Belgrade

L . . . . . -4.4% -2.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.2%

H . . . . . 2.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0%

B 1.7% -6.4% 1.7% 4.6% 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

H . . . . . -2.6% 8.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9%

B 9.1% 10.3% 10.1% 12.5% -5.1% -3.3% 5.3% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 2.4%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . -4.0% 2.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%

H . . . . . 2.2% 5.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.0% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9%

B 7.5% 3.0% 2.3% 9.7% 0.1% 1.7% 3.3% 4.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%

H . . . . . -4.5% 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0%

B 1.3% -12.9% 3.2% 8.2% -4.0% -5.0% 2.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.6%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . -5.4% 0.4% -0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% -0.7%

H . . . . . 3.4% 6.6% 5.0% 4.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 4.6%

B 5.6% 2.2% 11.8% 12.6% 2.7% 3.0% 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.4%

Croatia

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0%

H . . . . . 3.7% 6.4% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.0%

B 11.3% -2.9% 6.2% -0.3% -3.3% 3.3% 4.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 2.9% 3.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4%

H . . . . . 4.0% 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 4.6%

B 4.1% 0.2% 8.3% 5.2% -0.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 3.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7%

H . . . . . 7.2% 5.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 3.9%

B -0.4% -7.8% 3.8% 4.2% -2.8% 6.9% 4.3% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 3.0%

Denmark

L . . . . . 6.5% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0%

H . . . . . 5.2% 6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7% 5.4%

B 7.2% -9.4% -0.8% 12.3% 2.9% 4.5% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8%

Estonia

L . . . . . 3.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1%

H . . . . . 2.4% 8.0% 4.0% 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3%

B 0.2% -1.0% 1.7% 5.9% -10.2% 1.9% 5.9% 2.9% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%

FYROM

L . . . . . 1.4% 3.7% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9%

H . . . . . -1.7% 3.4% 4.3% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 2.9%

B 6.1% -8.1% 1.7% 12.6% -5.1% -2.2% 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.6%

Finland

L . . . . . -2.7% -0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%

H . . . . . 1.6% 4.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.9%

B 0.2% -7.0% -0.9% 6.3% -1.0% 1.3% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

France

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 57

TSU Annual growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . 0.9% 3.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9%

B 2.7% -6.6% 3.2% 3.6% -1.8% 0.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0%

Germany

L . . . . . 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

H . . . . . -1.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 3.5%

B 5.2% -2.8% 7.6% 2.1% -4.2% -1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2%

Greece

L . . . . . -2.3% -0.5% 1.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 0.9%

H . . . . . 3.8% 7.2% 5.3% 5.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1%

B -0.6% -2.6% 2.6% -1.2% -2.1% 3.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%

Hungary

L . . . . . 2.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9%

H . . . . . 1.3% 5.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 2.3% 3.6%

B 0.0% -6.9% 1.5% 4.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%

Ireland

L . . . . . 0.3% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

H . . . . . -0.6% 3.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1%

B 0.5% -6.0% 5.9% -2.9% -2.8% -1.0% 1.4% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0%

Italy

L . . . . . -1.5% -0.7% 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6%

H . . . . . 4.2% 8.6% 5.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 5.3%

B 4.7% -9.1% 6.4% 10.8% 0.7% 3.8% 6.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 3.3%

Latvia

L . . . . . 3.4% 4.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8%

H . . . . . 2.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3%

B 1.7% -6.6% 4.9% 7.5% -1.4% 2.3% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2%

H . . . . . 5.6% 8.9% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 5.6%

B . -11.0% 8.7% 13.2% 2.3% 5.0% 6.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.8%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 4.4% 3.4% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2%

H . . . . . 13.6% 6.1% 4.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 6.4%

B 11.9% -1.4% 17.0% 3.9% 26.8% 12.8% 3.7% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.9%

Malta

L . . . . . 12.0% 1.3% 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 3.3%

H . . . . . 19.9% 17.2% 6.1% 5.8% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 9.2%

B 23.4% 20.4% 30.7% 7.4% 5.7% 18.4% 12.0% 4.5% 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% 7.2%

Moldova

L . . . . . 16.9% 6.7% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 5.3%

H . . . . . 4.9% 4.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 3.5%

B -0.7% -7.5% 2.1% 4.8% -0.3% 4.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 4.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.6%

H . . . . . 10.7% 6.2% 3.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 4.2%

B 8.3% -2.8% 5.9% 8.2% 7.8% 10.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 3.3%

Norway

L . . . . . 9.8% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 2.4%

H . . . . . 5.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 5.1%

B . -4.3% 7.1% 11.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8%

Poland

L . . . . . 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4%

H . . . . . 4.6% 6.7% 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 5.6%

B 0.1% -3.3% 9.0% 3.5% 1.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1%

Romania

L . . . . . 3.6% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6%

H . . . . . 4.3% 5.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 3.7% 4.2%

B 5.4% -0.1% 6.3% 7.8% -2.7% 3.7% 4.0% 2.8% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0%

H . . . . . 7.3% 5.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 4.4% 5.2%

B 6.1% 0.7% 11.5% 5.2% 2.4% 6.8% 4.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 6.4% 2.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.5%

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Page 58 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

TSU Annual growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

H . . . . . -1.3% 7.9% 4.4% 4.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.8%

B 8.2% -3.1% 10.3% 16.3% 0.1% -1.7% 6.1% 3.1% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7%

Slovenia

L . . . . . -2.1% 4.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%

H . . . . . -1.0% 1.9% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4%

B -1.3% -8.4% 3.4% 5.3% -7.2% -1.2% 0.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 1.6%

Spain

L . . . . . -1.5% -0.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5%

H . . . . . 3.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.4%

B 5.7% -11.2% 1.5% 7.9% -1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4%

Sweden

L . . . . . 2.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2%

H . . . . . -0.5% 4.8% 3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7%

B 1.4% -5.1% 0.9% 1.5% -2.3% -0.8% 3.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%

Switzerland

L . . . . . -1.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8%

H . . . . . 9.3% 7.6% 6.7% 6.1% 5.8% 6.3% 6.2% 6.8%

B 6.4% 6.0% 10.4% 7.8% 2.0% 8.9% 6.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.6%

Turkey

L . . . . . 8.5% 4.3% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 4.1%

H . . . . . 1.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6%

B 1.4% -10.2% -4.4% 4.0% -2.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8%

UK

L . . . . . 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9%

H . . . . . 10.1% 7.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.3% 5.6% 5.5% 6.5%

B 12.6% -4.5% 12.4% 6.6% 2.8% 9.5% 5.9% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 5.1%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 9.0% 4.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7%

H . . . . . 2.3% 4.6% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7%

B 2.1% -5.4% 3.3% 4.7% -1.4% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%

H . . . . . 1.2% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0%

B 1.1% -7.3% 1.0% 5.1% -2.2% 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1%

CRCO88

L . . . . . 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

H . . . . . 2.4% 4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

B 2.9% -5.2% 3.5% 5.0% -1.3% 2.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%

CRCO11

L . . . . . 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

H . . . . . 1.7% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4%

B 1.7% -6.6% 2.6% 4.5% -1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%

PScheme

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%

H . . . . . 2.7% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9%

B 3.1% -5.2% 3.7% 5.1% -1.2% 2.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%

Total

L . . . . . 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%

(a) The 2008 and 2009 growth figures for CRCO11, PScheme and Total are adjusted to compensate for the increase in TSU due to the introduction of new countries in the total (in 2008, introduction of Poland and Lithuania with 3,614 thousands TSU - in 2009, introduction of Armenia with 111 thousand TSU)

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 59

ANNEX G. SEVEN-YEAR TERMINAL SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TERMINAL CHARGING ZONE

More details on the forecast method can be found in the seven-year terminal service unit forecast 2013-2019 published in April 2013 (see Ref. 2).

Figure 50. Forecast Summary: Terminal Navigation Service Units per Terminal Charging Zone (as defined in 2013).

TNSU (in Thousands) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 172.0 178.3 188.4 198.6 207.8 218.4 227.1 3.4%

Base 169.4 181.0 184.1 179.2 171.4 175.0 182.8 190.3 196.5 203.4 210.6 2.3%

Austria LO_TCZ

Low . . . . 170.6 170.2 172.3 177.8 180.6 184.1 188.9 0.8%

High . . . . 136.7 140.8 146.0 152.0 157.6 164.4 171.7 3.1%

Base 136.0 133.9 142.0 138.7 137.3 137.8 142.6 147.5 152.2 157.0 162.3 2.3%

Belgium EB_TCZ

Low . . . . 136.8 134.6 136.7 139.9 142.4 145.3 148.7 1.0%

High . . . . 41.7 45.0 49.0 52.8 57.1 62.8 68.1 7.3%

Base 40.3 41.5 43.4 41.5 41.4 43.6 46.0 48.3 51.0 53.7 56.6 4.5%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ

Low . . . . 41.2 42.4 43.7 45.0 46.4 47.9 49.3 2.5%

High . . . . 39.2 41.3 43.6 46.3 49.4 53.5 57.4 4.4%

Base 41.3 42.1 43.9 42.5 39.6 40.3 41.0 42.2 43.9 45.7 48.2 1.8%

Cyprus LC_TCZ

Low . . . . 39.4 39.1 39.2 39.2 40.0 41.0 42.2 -0.1%

High . . . . 74.2 78.5 85.7 92.4 101.1 109.1 119.1 6.7%

Base 86.8 83.0 84.7 75.4 73.8 76.2 79.8 85.0 89.2 93.3 97.3 3.7%

Czech Republic LK_TCZ

Low . . . . 73.4 74.0 75.8 78.1 79.9 81.9 83.9 1.5%

High . . . . 147.5 152.6 159.4 165.2 170.1 175.5 182.1 3.4%

Base 133.0 138.3 145.3 143.7 146.8 150.0 155.3 159.6 162.8 167.0 170.9 2.5%

Denmark EK_TCZ

Low . . . . 146.2 146.5 148.8 151.3 152.7 154.5 156.6 1.2%

High . . . . 13.0 14.3 16.0 17.9 19.2 20.7 22.1 3.2%

Base 11.9 12.1 15.2 17.7 12.9 13.6 14.7 15.5 16.6 17.4 18.8 0.9%

Estonia EE_TCZ

Low . . . . 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 -1.9%

High . . . . 96.7 100.6 104.9 108.3 112.0 115.8 119.9 3.0%

Base 93.2 93.1 107.1 97.6 96.3 98.7 100.8 102.7 104.5 106.7 108.8 1.6%

Finland EF_TCZ

Low . . . . 95.8 96.3 96.8 97.3 97.8 98.5 98.9 0.2%

High . . . . 1031.8 1059.3 1090.7 1129.5 1159.5 1192.6 1216.1 2.2%

Base 996.0 988.6 1035.1 1042.2 1028.1 1042.0 1063.2 1092.8 1111.1 1135.6 1161.2 1.6%

France LF_TCZ

Low . . . . 1024.6 1020.5 1023.7 1037.8 1043.9 1052.2 1060.5 0.2%

High . . . . 1265.9 1300.7 1356.6 1430.2 1488.7 1550.6 1612.9 3.1%

Base 1223.8 1260.5 1317.3 1301.1 1260.2 1278.4 1319.6 1376.6 1415.5 1457.4 1501.3 2.1%

Germany ED_TCZ

Low . . . . 1254.4 1247.5 1258.0 1287.6 1303.9 1318.5 1335.0 0.4%

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Page 60 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

TNSU (in Thousands) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 76.4 79.5 82.4 85.3 87.3 89.8 93.0 1.6%

Base 113.7 103.9 96.5 83.1 76.0 77.3 79.4 82.0 83.8 86.3 88.6 0.9%

Greece LG_TCZ

Low . . . . 75.6 74.7 75.6 77.0 77.9 79.2 80.4 -0.5%

High . . . . 47.3 49.1 52.1 55.5 58.0 61.3 64.5 3.8%

Base 57.3 56.0 59.0 49.6 46.7 47.0 48.6 51.7 53.4 55.6 57.5 2.1%

Hungary LH_TCZ

Low . . . . 46.4 45.5 46.1 47.5 48.4 49.4 50.4 0.2%

High . . . . 129.2 135.2 142.3 150.1 160.3 170.2 172.6 4.8%

Base 145.7 126.0 124.8 124.3 128.6 131.6 136.2 141.0 146.3 152.1 157.4 3.4%

Ireland EI_TCZ

Low . . . . 128.0 128.5 130.4 133.2 136.0 139.4 142.7 2.0%

High . . . . 829.9 838.0 873.2 912.8 947.8 984.5 1022.2 2.1%

Base 872.9 902.9 918.6 886.7 826.7 821.6 848.6 880.8 903.9 929.6 954.6 1.1%

Italy LI_TCZ

Low . . . . 823.6 802.3 809.1 825.4 834.9 847.9 858.1 -0.5%

High . . . . 32.0 34.2 36.6 39.0 41.4 43.8 46.6 5.7%

Base 24.0 26.8 32.5 31.7 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.3 33.9 1.0%

Latvia EV_TCZ

Low . . . . 31.5 30.5 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.2 -1.7%

High . . . . 181.5 186.8 194.5 201.9 209.1 216.7 224.5 3.6%

Base 167.4 174.8 177.6 175.7 180.7 181.4 185.9 190.5 194.1 198.4 202.9 2.1%

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ

Low . . . . 179.8 176.4 176.8 178.3 179.9 181.7 183.2 0.6%

High . . . . 19.7 21.0 23.1 25.2 27.3 29.2 31.3 7.2%

Base 13.1 16.3 17.4 19.2 19.6 20.3 21.6 23.0 24.3 25.7 27.1 5.0%

Lithuania EY_TCZ

Low . . . . 19.5 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.0 23.7 3.1%

High . . . . 36.4 38.5 40.7 43.1 46.0 48.6 51.4 5.4%

Base 35.3 35.5 36.2 35.6 36.2 37.8 39.3 41.1 42.9 44.9 47.0 4.0%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ

Low . . . . 36.0 36.2 37.0 38.2 39.5 41.7 42.9 2.7%

High . . . . 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.4 1.1%

Base 18.6 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.4 1.1%

Malta LM_TCZ

Low . . . . 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.4 1.1%

High . . . . 342.6 353.4 364.9 379.0 391.4 404.6 416.5 2.9%

Base 313.3 318.9 341.8 341.8 341.0 347.4 356.0 364.4 372.0 381.7 391.5 2.0%

Netherlands EH_TCZ

Low . . . . 339.4 339.9 341.8 345.6 347.7 351.8 356.6 0.6%

High . . . . 244.8 251.3 265.1 270.1 275.2 280.2 286.0 3.1%

Base 199.0 205.3 220.1 231.0 244.6 250.4 263.0 267.9 271.8 276.0 280.3 2.8%

Norway EN_TCZ

Low . . . . 244.4 248.9 259.5 263.8 267.0 269.8 273.5 2.4%

High . . . . 150.1 160.2 173.8 188.0 204.5 219.8 240.2 7.0%

Base 122.3 128.9 133.9 149.2 149.3 155.7 163.3 171.3 179.1 188.4 198.8 4.2%

Poland EP_TCZ

Low . . . . 148.5 151.9 155.9 159.4 163.4 167.6 172.5 2.1%

High . . . . 46.6 47.9 51.7 55.1 58.9 63.2 68.8 5.3%

Base 48.9 51.1 49.1 47.8 46.4 46.6 48.4 50.7 52.7 55.0 57.5 2.7%

Romania LR_TCZ

Low . . . . 46.1 45.2 45.8 46.7 47.5 48.5 49.6 0.5%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 61

TNSU (in Thousands) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 4.2%

Base 15.3 13.1 12.7 11.2 10.8 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.9 13.4 2.6%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ

Low . . . . 10.8 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 1.0%

High . . . . 11.3 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.5 3.9%

Base 13.3 12.5 12.5 11.1 11.2 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.9 2.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ

Low . . . . 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 0.3%

High . . . . 818.1 807.6 835.0 861.8 887.3 917.6 947.1 1.5%

Base 876.9 886.5 921.7 852.4 814.0 792.7 810.4 831.1 849.2 870.0 891.8 0.6%

Spain LE_TCZ

Low . . . . 810.4 772.9 776.8 786.8 797.5 811.0 823.9 -0.5%

High . . . . 125.7 132.1 136.7 141.9 146.6 150.5 154.1 3.4%

Base 106.7 108.2 121.9 121.7 125.5 130.5 133.8 137.0 139.6 144.1 147.0 2.7%

ES_TCZ_A

Low . . . . 125.1 128.2 129.4 131.1 131.9 133.1 134.2 1.4%

High . . . . 34.0 35.3 36.5 37.5 39.2 40.2 41.3 3.8%

Base 26.9 29.3 34.7 31.9 33.9 35.2 35.8 36.5 37.2 37.9 39.5 3.1%

Sweden

ES_TCZ_L

Low . . . . 33.9 34.6 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.2 35.4 1.5%

High . . . . 256.1 264.5 276.8 289.9 298.9 305.7 307.7 2.4%

Base 235.7 240.8 257.6 260.9 255.2 259.0 268.2 279.2 286.8 294.7 302.5 2.1%

Switzerland LS_TCZ

Low . . . . 253.4 252.2 256.6 261.1 265.3 269.1 273.5 0.7%

High . . . . 339.1 349.6 363.6 378.9 394.1 409.8 424.7 3.5%

Base 346.9 323.8 331.4 334.5 337.8 342.7 351.5 361.1 371.3 380.8 391.4 2.3%

EG_TCZ_A

Low . . . . 336.5 337.1 340.1 346.2 350.9 357.5 362.6 1.2%

High . . . . 857.2 876.8 901.2 924.1 942.6 967.3 985.1 1.9%

Base 868.8 835.2 868.7 864.9 855.0 862.4 886.0 904.2 917.2 932.8 947.4 1.3%

UK

EG_TCZ_B

Low . . . . 852.6 847.3 861.4 878.9 892.6 902.3 910.2 0.7%

Figure 51. Forecast Summary: Growth of Terminal Navigation Service Units per Terminal Charging Zone (as defined in 2013).

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . -4.0% 3.6% 5.7% 5.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4%

Base -8.1% 6.9% 1.7% -2.7% -4.3% 2.0% 4.5% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 2.3%

Austria LO_TCZ

Low . . . . -4.8% -0.2% 1.3% 3.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 0.8%

High . . . . -1.4% 3.0% 3.7% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 4.4% 3.1%

Base -12% -1.6% 6.1% -2.3% -1.0% 0.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.3%

Belgium EB_TCZ

Low . . . . -1.4% -1.6% 1.5% 2.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.0%

High . . . . 0.5% 8.0% 8.8% 7.8% 8.1% 9.9% 8.5% 7.3%

Base -7.7% 3.0% 4.4% -4.3% -0.1% 5.1% 5.7% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.5%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ

Low . . . . -0.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5%

High . . . . -7.8% 5.2% 5.6% 6.3% 6.7% 8.2% 7.3% 4.4%

Base -2.5% 2.0% 4.2% -3.1% -7.0% 1.9% 1.6% 3.0% 4.0% 4.1% 5.4% 1.8%

Cyprus LC_TCZ

Low . . . . -7.4% -0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% -0.1%

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . -1.5% 5.8% 9.1% 7.8% 9.5% 7.9% 9.2% 6.7%

Base -8.5% -4.3% 2.0% -11% -2.1% 3.2% 4.7% 6.5% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 3.7%

Czech Republic LK_TCZ

Low . . . . -2.6% 0.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5%

High . . . . 2.7% 3.5% 4.4% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.8% 3.4%

Base -11% 4.1% 5.0% -1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5%

Denmark EK_TCZ

Low . . . . 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2%

High . . . . -27% 10% 12% 12% 7.1% 7.8% 7.0% 3.2%

Base -28% 1.6% 25% 17% -27% 5.8% 7.9% 5.7% 6.7% 5.2% 7.6% 0.9%

Estonia EE_TCZ

Low . . . . -27% 2.9% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 3.0% 2.9% -1.9%

High . . . . -0.9% 4.0% 4.2% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0%

Base -9.1% -0.1% 15% -8.9% -1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.6%

Finland EF_TCZ

Low . . . . -1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

High . . . . -1.0% 2.7% 3.0% 3.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.2%

Base -5.6% -0.8% 4.7% 0.7% -1.4% 1.4% 2.0% 2.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.6%

France LF_TCZ

Low . . . . -1.7% -0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%

High . . . . -2.7% 2.7% 4.3% 5.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.1%

Base -5.1% 3.0% 4.5% -1.2% -3.1% 1.4% 3.2% 4.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.1%

Germany ED_TCZ

Low . . . . -3.6% -0.5% 0.8% 2.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4%

High . . . . -8.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 2.3% 2.9% 3.5% 1.6%

Base 5.7% -8.7% -7.1% -14% -8.5% 1.7% 2.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 0.9%

Greece LG_TCZ

Low . . . . -9.0% -1.2% 1.2% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% -0.5%

High . . . . -4.7% 3.8% 6.1% 6.5% 4.5% 5.7% 5.3% 3.8%

Base -7.4% -2.3% 5.4% -16% -5.9% 0.6% 3.4% 6.5% 3.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.1%

Hungary LH_TCZ

Low . . . . -6.4% -2.0% 1.5% 3.1% 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.2%

High . . . . 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 5.5% 6.8% 6.2% 1.5% 4.8%

Base -15% -14% -0.9% -0.4% 3.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4%

Ireland EI_TCZ

Low . . . . 2.9% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0%

High . . . . -6.4% 1.0% 4.2% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 2.1%

Base -3.4% 3.4% 1.7% -3.5% -6.8% -0.6% 3.3% 3.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.1%

Italy LI_TCZ

Low . . . . -7.1% -2.6% 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% -0.5%

High . . . . 0.8% 7.1% 7.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.9% 6.3% 5.7%

Base 5.7% 12% 21% -2.5% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.0%

Latvia EV_TCZ

Low . . . . -0.6% -3.0% -2.1% -1.1% -1.6% -1.7% -1.4% -1.7%

High . . . . 3.3% 2.9% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%

Base -5.2% 4.4% 1.6% -1.0% 2.8% 0.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1%

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ

Low . . . . 2.3% -1.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6%

High . . . . 2.7% 6.2% 10% 9.1% 8.5% 6.8% 7.1% 7.2%

Base -34% 24% 7.0% 10% 2.1% 3.5% 6.3% 6.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0%

Lithuania EY_TCZ

Low . . . . 1.6% 1.2% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1%

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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 63

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 2.1% 5.9% 5.6% 6.0% 6.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.4%

Base -12% 0.6% 2.0% -1.7% 1.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.8% 4.0%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ

Low . . . . 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 3.1% 3.5% 5.6% 2.9% 2.7%

High . . . . 1.0% 2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1%

Base -3.0% 10% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1%

Malta LM_TCZ

Low . . . . 1.1% 2.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1%

High . . . . 0.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9%

Base -8.4% 1.8% 7.2% 0.0% -0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0%

Netherlands EH_TCZ

Low . . . . -0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6%

High . . . . 5.9% 2.7% 5.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 3.1%

Base -5.9% 3.2% 7.2% 5.0% 5.9% 2.4% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 2.8%

Norway EN_TCZ

Low . . . . 5.8% 1.8% 4.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 2.4%

High . . . . 0.6% 6.7% 8.5% 8.1% 8.8% 7.5% 9.3% 7.0%

Base -9.4% 5.4% 3.9% 11% 0.1% 4.3% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 5.2% 5.5% 4.2%

Poland EP_TCZ

Low . . . . -0.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1%

High . . . . -2.4% 2.8% 7.9% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4% 8.9% 5.3%

Base -0.7% 4.5% -3.9% -2.7% -3.0% 0.4% 4.0% 4.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 2.7%

Romania LR_TCZ

Low . . . . -3.5% -1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 0.5%

High . . . . -2.4% 2.4% 6.2% 7.0% 5.3% 5.7% 5.4% 4.2%

Base -21% -14% -3.1% -12% -3.1% -0.5% 4.9% 4.3% 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.6%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ

Low . . . . -3.6% -2.1% 2.2% 3.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 1.0%

High . . . . 1.2% 1.1% 4.8% 6.0% 5.1% 5.3% 3.4% 3.9%

Base -12% -6.2% 0.3% -11% 0.5% -1.5% 2.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3.0% 4.5% 2.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ

Low . . . . -0.1% -3.8% -0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.3%

High . . . . -4.0% -1.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.4% 3.2% 1.5%

Base -9.1% 1.1% 4.0% -7.5% -4.5% -2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 0.6%

Spain LE_TCZ

Low . . . . -4.9% -4.6% 0.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% -0.5%

High . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 3.4%

Base -15% 1.5% 13% -0.2% 3.2% 3.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 3.2% 2.0% 2.7%

ES_TCZ_A

Low . . . . 2.8% 2.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4%

High . . . . 6.5% 3.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.5% 2.6% 2.7% 3.8%

Base -18% 9.0% 19% -8.0% 6.2% 3.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 4.1% 3.1%

Sweden

ES_TCZ_L

Low . . . . 6.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5%

High . . . . -1.9% 3.3% 4.7% 4.7% 3.1% 2.3% 0.7% 2.4%

Base -3.8% 2.2% 7.0% 1.3% -2.2% 1.5% 3.5% 4.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1%

Switzerland LS_TCZ

Low . . . . -2.9% -0.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7%

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Page 64 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AAGR 2019/ 2012

High . . . . 1.4% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5%

Base -11% -6.7% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3%

EG_TCZ_A

Low . . . . 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2%

High . . . . -0.9% 2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9%

Base -6.8% -3.9% 4.0% -0.4% -1.2% 0.9% 2.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3%

UK

EG_TCZ_B

Low . . . . -1.4% -0.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7%

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EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 65

ANNEX H. REFERENCES

Electronic versions of the present report and the reports reference hereafter are available from the STATFOR webpage: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.

1 EUROCONTROL 7-Year forecast: Forecast Flight Movements and Service Units 2013-2019, EUROCONTROL STATFOR, February 2013. [MTF13]

2 EUROCONTROL 7-year Terminal Service Units Forecast 2013-2019, EUROCONTROL

STATFOR, April 2013. 3 EUROCONTROL 7-Year forecast: Intermediate Forecast Flight Movements and Service

Units 2013-2019, EUROCONTROL STATFOR May 2013.

4 STATFOR Website is available at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor 5 EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics and Forecasts, EUROCONTROL

STATFOR, January 2005

Page 79: EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2013 · 30/09/2013 . Abstract. This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights and Total
Page 80: EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2013 · 30/09/2013 . Abstract. This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights and Total

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified

EUROCONTROL

For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast [email protected]://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

© 2013 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may

be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the

source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The infor-

mation in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from

EUROCONTROL.


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