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European Developments
Transmission Workgroup1 March 2012
Winter Outlook 2011-12
Further Information Requested
ENTSOG Winter Supply Outlook - Background
ENTSOG Winter Supply Outlook was published on 14th December
The Third package (Reg 715) defines the obligation for ENTSOG to publish a Winter and a Summer Supply Outlook every year
It provide a picture of the resilience of the European gas network during the forth coming season.
There was a dual approach to the 20112/12 Winter Outlook
The Outlook aims to evaluate system resilience through a scenario-based approach and not to forecast stakeholders’
behaviour
What Influence Gas Demand have on European UGS Stock Levels
ENTSOG investigated the impact of gas demand on UGS stock levels from October 2011 to March 2012
Sensitivity studies were produced around a Reference Case (1-in-2 Winter and supply being the average of last 2 years with UGS as last resort supply)
Stock level at the end of each month
Sept. 2011 Oct. 2011 Nov. 2011 Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012 Feb. 2012 Mar. 2012
Reference CA
91%
93% 86% 75% 60% 48% 42%
Cold Winter UGS only 88% 75% 56% 33% 14% 1%
Imports & UGS90% 78% 61% 41% 23% 13%
Warm Winter UGS only 98% 97% 94% 87% 83% 83%
Imports & UGS96% 94% 88% 79% 72% 71%
Gas in UGS storage is sufficient to cover on its own an additional demand of 10% upper the average winter (such increase is as high as the French winter demand)
UGS decreased deliverability due to low stock level in the end of the winter has no negative impact on system flexibility
ENTSOG investigated a high daily level of demand (statistically occurring once every 20 years) for January and March.
Reference supplies were defined as the highest daily levels reached in last 2 winters per supply type, with UGS as last resort supply
Peak in January 2012
Peak in March 2012
Remaining Flexibility when Facing Peak Demand
North West – Gas Regional Investment Plan
Post Consultation Response
Gas Regional Investment Plan
The North West European TSOs produced their Gas Regional Investment Plan 2011-2020 (NW GRIP). It is the first edition of this regional statement on long-term gas infrastructure development.
The core focus of the NW GRIP 2011-2020 was to highlight how TSO infrastructure projects impact the Interconnection Points within the NW region, along with the entry points into the region from countries where gas is directly imported from outside the EU.
It therefore provides an insight to shippers on potential new capacities.
Consultation Response
The NW TSOs ran a consultation on the published GRIP from 21st November 2011 to 31st January
The NW TSOs received only 1 consultation response (from EFET)
Requesting further incremental capacity information at cross border points
The TSO are discussion about the next steps for the GRIP
Present the consultation result at the GRI meeting in March
Interoperability Update
Transmission Workgroup
1st March 2012
Interoperability Update
ACER published a ‘Problem Identification Analysis’ paper on 13th February
The purpose was to:
Solicit views about what the genuine technical barriers are to the efficient functioning of the EU gas market
Inform ACER’s thinking about the scope of the Interoperability Framework Guideline
The primary audience was the 10 person ‘Expert Group’ appointed by ACER although it has gone wider
The Expert Group met and discussed the document in Vienna on 16th February
Problem Identification Analysis:The Topics Covered
Nominations
Interconnection Agreements
Capacity calculation
Gas quality
Odourisation
Units
Data Exchange
Feedback from the Experts Group Meeting
Interoperability is still viewed by ACER as fundamental to facilitating cross border flows
However, it is proving difficult to identify EU wide issues that require addressing in an EU Code
Some regulators appeared to be in favour of minimising the content of the Interoperability FG / Code
Gas Quality was viewed as a local problem
The inclusion of Capacity Calculation was challenged
Nominations has largely moved to the Balancing Code
Lack of common units is not really a barrier to trade
Next Steps
ACER still plan to release the Framework Guideline and Impact Assessment in March
The topics discussed so far are all likely to appear
However, there may be a more ‘local’ agenda – i.e. greater emphasis on TSO to TSO cooperation on solutions and NRA involvement to determine appropriate cost allocation
We will report to the Workgroup again in April
EU CAM Network Code and CMP Guideline Proposal Update
Transmission Workgroup
1st March 2012
Capacity Allocation Mechanism (CAM) - Update
30th January 2012, ENTSOG launched the Stakeholder Support Process – in which users were asked whether they were able to support the Network Code (NC) and the process undertaken to develop it
The Stakeholder Support Process closed 13th February 2012
Respondents indicated a high level of support for the process undertaken and the NC
The one exception relates to cross border capacity. A high proportion of stakeholders said they were unable to support the sunset clause nor accept the mandatory bundling of new capacity
Frontier Economics appointed by ACER to evaluate ENTSOG auction design and assessment against current models
Network Code to be formally issued to ACER 6th March 2012.
Congestion Management Procedures (CMP) Guidelines - Update
The Commission published previous version of the Draft Guidelines – 19th December 2011
GB Stakeholder meeting held with DECC 13th January 2012
Written views provided to DECC
The first Comitology meeting for Member States held 26th January 2012
Constructive meeting
Expect only one more meeting in April
Some issues – but minor expect no significant change?
DECC / Ofgem GB industry meeting held 3rd February 2012.
Congestion Management Procedures (CMP) Guidelines - Update
New version received 7th Feb via Ofgem from the 1st Comitology meeting:
CMP now applicable to entry / exit from 3rd countries
Not in line with CAM
Firm UIOLI (RoRR) text included to consider opinion of NRA on the other side of the IP
Secondary market not included
Implementation 1st Oct 13
Single transparency platform 1st July 13?
DECC & OFGEM requested further Industry comments on new version by 9th February 2012.
EU Updates Timetable
Timetable aims to highlight the key items (consultations, workshops, decisions, etc.) National Grid NTS expect to cover via this agenda item in the forthcoming months
Topic TX Workgroup
• Balancing update – where available, information on the forthcoming consultation
• Interoperability update
April 2012
• CAM update• Balancing Consultation update - Provide further details of
consultation and initial views of issues for consideration by GB stakeholders
May 2012
• Balancing update - Provide update on our views and response
• CAM update
June 2012